Articles | Volume 28, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 21 Feb 2024
| 21 Feb 2024
What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?
Elena Macdonald
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Björn Guse
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Institute for Natural Resource Conservation, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Viet Dung Nguyen
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Xiaoxiang Guan
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
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Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers –...
