Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 28, issue 4
Articles | Volume 28, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 28, issue 4
Research article
 | 
21 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2024

What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?

Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

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Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
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