Articles | Volume 28, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 21 Feb 2024
| 21 Feb 2024
What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?
Elena Macdonald
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Björn Guse
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Institute for Natural Resource Conservation, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Viet Dung Nguyen
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Xiaoxiang Guan
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Managing extremes in the Anthropocene: a causal, stochastic physics approach S. Kaluarachchi & Y. Alila https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1643416
- It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany S. Vorogushyn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025
- Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation? E. Macdonald et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025
- Hydrological Model Calibration in Data-Scarce Mediterranean Catchments: A Comparative Assessment of Three Strategies A. Jahanshahi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13020066
- Assessing the maximization potential for historical floods by spatio-temporal simulation of precipitation U. Haberlandt et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2636662
- How Changes in Future Precipitation Impact Flood Frequencies: A Quantile‐Quantile Mapping Approach L. Cafiero et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038471
- At-site flood frequency analysis using a PROQ transform I. Brodie https://doi.org/10.1080/13241583.2025.2510733
- Bootstrapping estimators based on the block maxima method A. Bücher & T. Staud https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssb/qkaf060
- Impact of different weather generator scenarios on extreme flood estimates in Switzerland E. Kritidou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02843-8
- Partitioning uncertainties of extreme flood estimates using long continuous simulations E. Kritidou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134804
- Meteorological and hydrological dry-to-wet transition events are only weakly related over European catchments M. Brunner et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade72c
- Applicability of an analytical probabilistic stormwater management model for large rural watersheds L. McGregor & S. Hassini https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135770
- A Review of Trigger Index Construction Methods for Index-Based Flood Insurance J. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18111274
- Why forests can mitigate floods of all sizes: Evaluating the scientific basis for forest-based flood mitigation S. Kaluarachchi & Y. Alila https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-026-02346-6
- Distributed simulation of fully coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic model for predicting rainfall-induced runoff/flood in small watersheds Y. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102450
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Managing extremes in the Anthropocene: a causal, stochastic physics approach S. Kaluarachchi & Y. Alila https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1643416
- It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany S. Vorogushyn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025
- Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation? E. Macdonald et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025
- Hydrological Model Calibration in Data-Scarce Mediterranean Catchments: A Comparative Assessment of Three Strategies A. Jahanshahi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13020066
- Assessing the maximization potential for historical floods by spatio-temporal simulation of precipitation U. Haberlandt et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2636662
- How Changes in Future Precipitation Impact Flood Frequencies: A Quantile‐Quantile Mapping Approach L. Cafiero et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038471
- At-site flood frequency analysis using a PROQ transform I. Brodie https://doi.org/10.1080/13241583.2025.2510733
- Bootstrapping estimators based on the block maxima method A. Bücher & T. Staud https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssb/qkaf060
- Impact of different weather generator scenarios on extreme flood estimates in Switzerland E. Kritidou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02843-8
- Partitioning uncertainties of extreme flood estimates using long continuous simulations E. Kritidou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134804
- Meteorological and hydrological dry-to-wet transition events are only weakly related over European catchments M. Brunner et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade72c
- Applicability of an analytical probabilistic stormwater management model for large rural watersheds L. McGregor & S. Hassini https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135770
- A Review of Trigger Index Construction Methods for Index-Based Flood Insurance J. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18111274
- Why forests can mitigate floods of all sizes: Evaluating the scientific basis for forest-based flood mitigation S. Kaluarachchi & Y. Alila https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-026-02346-6
- Distributed simulation of fully coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic model for predicting rainfall-induced runoff/flood in small watersheds Y. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102450
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 03 Aug 2026
Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers –...
