Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 26 Jul 2024
| 26 Jul 2024
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Robert Reinecke, Annemarie Bäthge, Ricarda Dietrich, Sebastian Gnann, Simon N. Gosling, Danielle Grogan, Andreas Hartmann, Stefan Kollet, Rohini Kumar, Richard Lammers, Sida Liu, Yan Liu, Nils Moosdorf, Bibi Naz, Sara Nazari, Chibuike Orazulike, Yadu Pokhrel, Jacob Schewe, Mikhail Smilovic, Maryna Strokal, Yoshihide Wada, Shan Zuidema, and Inge de Graaf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe a collaborative effort to improve predictions of how climate change will affect groundwater. The ISIMIP groundwater sector combines multiple global groundwater models to capture a range of possible outcomes and reduce uncertainty. Initial comparisons reveal significant differences between models in key metrics like water table depth and recharge rates, highlighting the need for structured model intercomparisons.
Khosro Morovati, Keer Zhang, Lidi Shi, Yadu Pokhrel, Maozhou Wu, Paradis Someth, Sarann Ly, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5133–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines large daily river flow fluctuations in the dammed Mekong River, developing integrated 3D hydrodynamic and response time models alongside a hydrological model with an embedded reservoir module. This approach allows estimation of travel times between hydrological stations and contributions of subbasins and upstream regions. Findings show a power correlation between upstream discharge and travel time, and significant fluctuations occurred even before dam construction.
Wei Jing Ang, Edward Park, Yadu Pokhrel, Dung Duc Tran, and Ho Huu Loc
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1209–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dams have burgeoned in the Mekong, but information on dams is scattered and inconsistent. Up-to-date evaluation of dams is unavailable, and basin-wide hydropower potential has yet to be systematically assessed. We present a comprehensive database of 1055 dams, a spatiotemporal analysis of the dams, and a total hydropower potential of 1 334 683 MW. Considering projected dam development and hydropower potential, the vulnerability and the need for better dam management may be highest in Laos.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Jiabo Yin, Louise J. Slater, Abdou Khouakhi, Le Yu, Pan Liu, Fupeng Li, Yadu Pokhrel, and Pierre Gentine
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5597–5615, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents long-term (i.e., 1940–2022) and high-resolution (i.e., 0.25°) monthly time series of TWS anomalies over the global land surface. The reconstruction is achieved by using a set of machine learning models with a large number of predictors, including climatic and hydrological variables, land use/land cover data, and vegetation indicators (e.g., leaf area index). Our proposed GTWS-MLrec performs overall as well as, or is more reliable than, previous TWS datasets.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Cited articles
Adamson, P. and Bird, J.: The mekong: A drought-prone tropical environment?, Int. J. Water Resour. D., 26, 579–594, https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2010.519632, 2010.
Adamson, P. T., Rutherfurd, I. D., Peel, M. C., and Conlan, I. A.: The Hydrology of the Mekong River, in: The Mekong: Biophysical Environment of an International River Basin, edited by: Campbell, I. C., Elsevier, Academic Press, San Diego, 53–76, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-374026-7.00004-8, 2009.
Arias, M. E., Cochrane, T. A., Piman, T., Kummu, M., Caruso, B. S., and Killeen, T. J.: Quantifying changes in flooding and habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake (Cambodia) caused by water infrastructure development and climate change in the Mekong Basin, J. Environ. Manage., 112, 53–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.07.003, 2012.
Arias, M. E., Cochrane, T. A., Norton, D., Killeen, T. J., and Khon, P.: The Flood Pulse as the Underlying Driver of Vegetation in the Largest Wetland and Fishery of the Mekong Basin, AMBIO, 42, 864–876, https://doi.org//10.1007/s13280-013-0424-4, 2013.
Arias, M. E., Piman, T., Lauri, H., Cochrane, T. A., and Kummu, M.: Dams on Mekong tributaries as significant contributors of hydrological alterations to the Tonle Sap Floodplain in Cambodia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5303–5315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5303-2014, 2014a.
Arias, M. E., Cochrane, T. A., Kummu, M., Lauri, H., Holtgrieve, G. W., Koponen, J., and Piman, T.: Impacts of hydropower and climate change on drivers of ecological productivity of Southeast Asia's most important wetland, Ecol. Model., 272, 252–263, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2013.10.015, 2014b.
Arias, M. E., Cochrane, T. A., and Elliott, V.: Modelling future changes of habitat and fauna in the Tonle Sap wetland of the Mekong, Environ. Conserv., 41, 165–175, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892913000283, 2014c.
Baran, E. and Myschowoda, C.: Dams and fisheries in the Mekong Basin, Aquat. Ecosyst. Health, 12, 227–234, https://doi.org/10.1080/14634980903149902, 2009.
Bednarek, A. T.: Undamming Rivers: A Review of the Ecological Impacts of Dam Removal, Environ. Manage., 27, 803–814, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010189, 2001.
Bellmore, J. R., Duda, J. J., Craig, L. S., Greene, S. L., Torgersen, C. E., Collins, M. J., and Vittum, K.: Status and trends of dam removal research in the United States, WIREs Water, 4, e1164, https://doi.org/10.1002/WAT2.1164, 2017.
Best, J.: Anthropogenic stresses on the world's big rivers, Nat. Geosci., 12, 7–21, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0262-x, 2018.
Botter, G., Basso, S., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., and Rinaldo, A.: Resilience of river flow regimes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 12925–12930, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1311920110, 2013.
Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Yamazaki, D., and Pokhrel, Y.: Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change, Nat. Commun., 12, 417, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20704-0, 2021.
Bryant, S., McGrath, H., and Boudreault, M.: Gridded flood depth estimates from satellite-derived inundations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1437-2022, 2022.
Bunn, S. E. and Arthington, A. H.: Basic principles and ecological consequences of altered flow regimes for aquatic biodiversity, Environ. Manage., 30, 492–507, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-002-2737-0, 2002.
Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., Krinner, G., Mukherji, A., Thorne, P. W., Trisos, C., Romero, J., Aldunce, P., Barrett, K., Blanco, G., Cheung, W. W. L., Connors, S., Denton, F., Diongue-Niang, A., Dodman, D., Garschagen, M., Geden, O., Hayward, B., Jones, C., Jotzo, F., Krug, T., Lasco, R., Lee, Y.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., Meinshausen, M., Mintenbeck, K., Mokssit, A., Otto, F. E. L., Pathak, M., Pirani, A., Poloczanska, E., Pörtner, H.-O., Revi, A., Roberts, D. C., Roy, J., Ruane, A. C., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Slade, R., Slangen, A., Sokona, Y., Sörensson, A. A., Tignor, M., van Vuuren, D., Wei, Y.-M., Winkler, H., Zhai, P., Zommers, Z., Hourcade, J.-C., Johnson, F. X., Pachauri, S., Simpson, N. P., Singh, C., Thomas, A., Totin, E., Alegría, A., Armour, K., Bednar-Friedl, B., Blok, K., Cissé, G., Dentener, F., Eriksen, S., Fischer, E., Garner, G., Guivarch, C., Haasnoot, M., Hansen, G., Hauser, M., Hawkins, E., Hermans, T., Kopp, R., Leprince-Ringuet, N., Lewis, J., Ley, D., Ludden, C., Niamir, L., Nicholls, Z., Some, S., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., van der Wijst, K.-I., Winter, G., Witting, M., Birt, A., and Ha, M.: IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647, 2023.
Chaudhari, S. and Pokhrel, Y.: Alteration of River Flow and Flood Dynamics by Existing and Planned Hydropower Dams in the Amazon River Basin, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR030555, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030555, 2022.
Chea, R., Ahsan, D., García-Lorenzo, I., and Teh, L.: Fish consumption patterns and value chain analysis in north-western Cambodia, Fish. Res., 263, 106677, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FISHRES.2023.106677, 2023.
Cho, M. S. and Qi, J.: Quantifying spatiotemporal impacts of hydro-dams on land use/land cover changes in the Lower Mekong River Basin, Appl. Geogr., 136, 102588, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2021.102588, 2021.
Cho, M. S. and Qi, J.: Characterization of the impacts of hydro-dams on wetland inundations in Southeast Asia, Sci. Total Environ., 864, 160941, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2022.160941, 2023.
Chowdhury, A. F. M. K., Wild, T., Zhang, Y., Binsted, M., Iyer, G., Kim, S. H., and Lamontagne, J.: Hydropower expansion in eco-sensitive river basins under global energy-economic change, Nat. Sustain., 7, 213–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01260-z, 2024.
Chua, S. D. X., Lu, X. X., Oeurng, C., Sok, T., and Grundy-Warr, C.: Drastic decline of flood pulse in the Cambodian floodplains (Mekong River and Tonle Sap system), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 609–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-609-2022, 2022.
Dang, H., Pokhrel, Y., Shin, S., Stelly, J., Ahlquist, D., and Du, D.: Hydrologic balance and inundation dynamics of Southeast Asia's largest inland lake altered by hydropower dams in the Mekong River basin, Sci. Total Environ., 831, 154833, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154833, 2022.
Dang, T. D., Cochrane, T. A., Arias, M. E., Van, P. D. T., and de Vries, T. T.: Hydrological alterations from water infrastructure development in the Mekong floodplains, Hydrol. Process., 30, 3824–3838, https://doi.org/10.1002/HYP.10894, 2016.
Delgado, J. M., Apel, H., and Merz, B.: Flood trends and variability in the Mekong river, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 407–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-407-2010, 2010.
Dethier, E. N., Renshaw, C. E., and Magilligan, F. J.: Rapid changes to global river suspended sediment flux by humans, Science, 376, 1447–1452, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7980, 2022.
Flaminio, S., Piégay, H., and Le Lay, Y. F.: To dam or not to dam in an age of anthropocene: Insights from a genealogy of media discourses, Anthropocene, 36, 100312, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ANCENE.2021.100312, 2021.
Galelli, S., Dang, T. D., Ng, J. Y., Chowdhury, A. F. M. K., and Arias, M. E.: Opportunities to curb hydrological alterations via dam re-operation in the Mekong, Nat. Sustain. 2022 5:12, 5, 1058–1069, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00971-z, 2022.
Gao, J., Zhao, J., and Wang, H.: Dam-Impacted Water–Energy–Food Nexus in Lancang-Mekong River Basin, J. Water Res. Plan. Man., 147, 04021010, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0001347, 2021.
Gilbert, R. O.: Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring, Wiley, 335 pp., ISBN, 9780471288787, 0471288780, https://www.google.com/books/edition/Statistical_Methods_for_Environmental_Po/lEo1rvDGUEkC?hl=en&gbpv=0, (last access: 20 May 2024), 1987.
Graf, W. L.: Dam nation: A geographic census of American dams and their large-scale hydrologic impacts, Water Resour. Res., 35, 1305–1311, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900016, 1999.
Grill, G., Lehner, B., Thieme, M., Geenen, B., Tickner, D., Antonelli, F., Babu, S., Borrelli, P., Cheng, L., Crochetiere, H., Ehalt Macedo, H., Filgueiras, R., Goichot, M., Higgins, J., Hogan, Z., Lip, B., McClain, M. E., Meng, J., Mulligan, M., Nilsson, C., Olden, J. D., Opperman, J. J., Petry, P., Reidy Liermann, C., Sáenz, L., Salinas-Rodríguez, S., Schelle, P., Schmitt, R. J. P., Snider, J., Tan, F., Tockner, K., Valdujo, P. H., van Soesbergen, A., and Zarfl, C.: Mapping the world's free-flowing rivers, Nature, 569, 215–221, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1111-9, 2019.
Grumbine, R. E. and Xu, J.: Mekong hydropower development, Science, 332, 178–179, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1200990, 2011.
Gudmundsson, L., Boulange, J., Do, H. X., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Leonard, M., Liu, J., Schmied, H. M., Papadimitriou, L., Pokhrel, Y., Seneviratne, S. I., Satoh, Y., Thiery, W., Westra, S., Zhang, X., and Zhao, F.: Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change, Science, 371, 1159–1162, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3996, 2021.
Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Biemans, H., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Konzmann, M., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Schewe, J., Stacke, T., Tessler, Z. D., Wada, Y., and Wisser, D.: Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3251–3256, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222475110, 2014.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2023.
Hirabayashi, Y., Kanae, S., Emori, S., Oki, T., and Kimoto, M.: Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 754–772, https://doi.org/10.1623/HYSJ.53.4.754, 2010.
Keovilignavong, O., Nguyen, T. H., and Hirsch, P.: Reviewing the causes of Mekong drought before and during 2019–20, Int. J. Water Resour. D., 00, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2021.1967112, 2021.
Kummu, M. and Sarkkula, J.: Impact of the Mekong River flow alteration on the Tonle Sap flood pulse, Ambio, 37, 185–192, https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[185:IOTMRF]2.0.CO;2, 2008.
Kummu, M., Tes, S., Yin, S., Adamson, P., Józsa, J., Koponen, J., Richey, J., and Sarkkula, J.: Water balance analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake-floodplain system, Hydrol. Process., 28, 1722–1733, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9718, 2013.
Lakshmi, V., Le, M.-H., Goffin, B. D., Besnier, J., Pham, H. T., Do, H.-X., Fang, B., Mohammed, I., and Bolten, J. D.: Regional analysis of the 2015–16 Lower Mekong River basin drought using NASA satellite observations, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 46, 101362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101362, 2023.
Lauri, H., de Moel, H., Ward, P. J., Räsänen, T. A., Keskinen, M., and Kummu, M.: Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4603–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4603-2012, 2012.
Lehner, B., Liermann, C. R., Revenga, C., Vörömsmarty, C., Fekete, B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P., Endejan, M., Frenken, K., Magome, J., Nilsson, C., Robertson, J. C., Rödel, R., Sindorf, N., and Wisser, D.: High-resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river-flow management, Front. Ecol. Environ., 9, 494–502, https://doi.org/10.1890/100125, 2011.
Li, D., Long, D., Zhao, J., Lu, H., and Hong, Y.: Observed changes in flow regimes in the Mekong River basin, J. Hydrol. (Amst), 551, 217–232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.061, 2017.
Li, Y., Lu, H., Yang, K., Wang, W., Tang, Q., Khem, S., Yang, F., and Huang, Y.: Meteorological and hydrological droughts in Mekong River Basin and surrounding areas under climate change, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 36, 100873, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100873, 2021.
Lu, X. X. and Chua, S. D. X.: River Discharge and Water Level Changes in the Mekong River: Droughts in an Era of Mega-Dams, Hydrol. Process., 35, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14265, 2021.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric Tests Against Trend, Econometrica, 13, 245, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945.
Mekong River Commission: Mekong River Commission, http://www.mrcmekong.org/, last access: 29 September 2022.
Mendez, M., Maathuis, B., Hein-Griggs, D., and Alvarado-Gamboa, L. F.: Performance Evaluation of Bias Correction Methods for Climate Change Monthly Precipitation Projections over Costa Rica, Water, 12, 482, https://doi.org/10.3390/W12020482, 2020.
Morovati, K., Tian, F., Kummu, M., Shi, L., Tudaji, M., Nakhaei, P., and Alberto Olivares, M.: Contributions from climate variation and human activities to flow regime change of Tonle Sap Lake from 2001 to 2020, J. Hydrol. (Amst), 616, 128800, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2022.128800, 2023.
Mulligan, M., van Soesbergen, A., and Sáenz, L.: GOODD, a global dataset of more than 38,000 georeferenced dams, Sci. Data, 7, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0362-5, 2020.
Ng, W. X. and Park, E.: Shrinking Tonlé Sap and the recent intensification of sand mining in the Cambodian Mekong River, Sci. Total Environ., 777, 146180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146180, 2021.
Ngor, P. B., Legendre, P., Oberdorff, T., and Lek, S.: Flow alterations by dams shaped fish assemblage dynamics in the complex Mekong-3S river system, Ecol. Indic., 88, 103–114, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.01.023, 2018.
Nilsson, C., Reidy, C. A., Dynesius, M., and Revenga, C.: Fragmentation and flow regulation of the world's large river systems, Science, 308, 405–408, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1107887, 2005.
Oki, T. and Kanae, S.: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources, Science, 313, 1068–1072, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128845, 2006.
Orr, S., Pittock, J., Chapagain, A., and Dumaresq, D.: Dams on the Mekong River: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources, Global Environ. Chang., 22, 925–932, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.06.002, 2012.
Piman, T., Cochrane, T. A., and Arias, M. E.: Effect of Proposed Large Dams on Water Flows and Hydropower Production in the Sekong, Sesan and Srepok Rivers of the Mekong Basin, River Res. Appl., 32, 2095–2108, https://doi.org/10.1002/RRA.3045, 2016.
Poff, N. L., Brown, C. M., Grantham, T. E., Matthews, J. H., Palmer, M. A., Spence, C. M., Wilby, R. L., Haasnoot, M., Mendoza, G. F., Dominique, K. C., and Baeza, A.: Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 25–34, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2765, 2015.
Pokhrel, Y. and Dang, H.: Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes, Figshare [data set], https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.26336977.v1, 2024.
Pokhrel, Y. and Tiwari, A. D.: Re-operating dams in the Mekong, Nat. Sustain., 5, 1005–1006, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00998-2, 2022.
Pokhrel, Y., Koirala, S., Yeh, P. J. F., Hanasaki, N., Longuevergne, L., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: Incorporation of groundwater pumping in a global Land Surface Model with the representation of human impacts, Water Resour. Res., 51, 78–96, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015602, 2015.
Pokhrel, Y., Burbano, M., Roush, J., Kang, H., Sridhar, V., and Hyndman, D. W.: A review of the integrated effects of changing climate, land use, and dams on Mekong river hydrology, Water (Switzerland), 10, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030266, 2018a.
Pokhrel, Y., Shin, S., Lin, Z., Yamazaki, D., and Qi, J.: Potential Disruption of Flood Dynamics in the Lower Mekong River Basin Due to Upstream Flow Regulation, Sci. Rep.-UK, 8, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35823-4, 2018b.
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Kim, H., Koutroulis, A., Liu, J., Papadimitriou, L., Schewe, J., Müller Schmied, H., Stacke, T., Telteu, C. E., Thiery, W., Veldkamp, T., Zhao, F., and Wada, Y.: Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 226–233, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w, 2021.
Räsänen, T. A., Koponen, J., Lauri, H., and Kummu, M.: Downstream Hydrological Impacts of Hydropower Development in the Upper Mekong Basin, Water Resour. Manag., 26, 3495–3513, https://doi.org/10.1007/S11269-012-0087-0/FIGURES/7, 2012.
Shin, S., Pokhrel, Y., Yamazaki, D., Huang, X., Torbick, N., Qi, J., Pattanakiat, S., Ngo-Duc, T., and Nguyen, T. D.: High Resolution Modeling of River-Floodplain-Reservoir Inundation Dynamics in the Mekong River Basin, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026449, 2020.
Shin, S., Pokhrel, Y., Talchabhadel, R., and Panthi, J.: Spatio-temporal dynamics of hydrologic changes in the Himalayan river basins of Nepal using high-resolution hydrological-hydrodynamic modeling, J. Hydrol. (Amst), 598, 126209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126209, 2021.
Smajgl, A., Toan, T. Q., Nhan, D. K., Ward, J., Trung, N. H., Tri, L. Q., Tri, V. P. D., and Vu, P. T.: Responding to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 167–174, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2469, 2015.
Tanoue, M., Hirabayashi, Y., and Ikeuchi, H.: Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep36021, 2016.
Teh, L. S. L., Bond, N., KC, K., Fraser, E., Seng, R., and Sumaila, U. R.: The economic impact of global change on fishing and non-fishing households in the Tonle Sap ecosystem, Pursat, Cambodia, Fish. Res., 210, 71–80, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2018.10.005, 2019.
Themeßl, M. J., Gobiet, A., and Heinrich, G.: Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal, Climatic Change, 112, 449–468, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0224-4, 2012.
Try, S., Tanaka, S., Tanaka, K., Sayama, T., Lee, G., and Oeurng, C.: Assessing the effects of climate change on flood inundation in the lower Mekong Basin using high-resolution AGCM outputs, Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., 7, 34, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00353-z, 2020.
Tuong, V., Hoang, T. Van, Chou, T. Y., Fang, Y. M., Wang, C. T., Tran, T. D., and Tran, D. D.: Extreme droughts change in the mekong river basin: A multidisciplinary analysis based on satellite data, Water (Switzerland), 13, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13192682, 2021.
Västilä, K., Kummu, M., Sangmanee, C., and Chinvanno, S.: Modelling climate change impacts on the flood pulse in the lower mekong floodplains, J. Water Clim. Change, 1, 67–86, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2010.008, 2010.
Vu, D. T., Dang, T. D., Galelli, S., and Hossain, F.: Satellite observations reveal 13 years of reservoir filling strategies, operating rules, and hydrological alterations in the Upper Mekong River basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2345–2364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2345-2022, 2022.
Wang, J., Yun, X., Pokhrel, Y., Yamazaki, D., Zhao, Q., Chen, A., and Tang, Q.: Modeling Daily Floods in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Using an Improved Hydrological–Hydrodynamic Model, Water Resour. Res., 57, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR029734, 2021.
Wang, J., Tang, Q., Yun, X., Chen, A., Sun, S., and Yamazaki, D.: Flood inundation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin: Assessing the role of summer monsoon, J. Hydrol. (Amst), 612, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128075, 2022.
Wang, S., Zhang, L., She, D., Wang, G., and Zhang, Q.: Future projections of flooding characteristics in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin under climate change, J. Hydrol. (Amst), 602, 126778, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126778, 2021.
Wang, W., Lu, H., Ruby Leung, L., Li, H. Y., Zhao, J., Tian, F., Yang, K., and Sothea, K.: Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10,378-10,386, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075037, 2017.
Winemiller, K. O., McIntyre, P. B., Castello, L., Fluet-Chouinard, E., Giarrizzo, T., Nam, S., Baird, I. G., Darwall, W., Lujan, N. K., Harrison, I., Stiassny, M. L. J., Silvano, R. A. M., Fitzgerald, D. B., Pelicice, F. M., Agostinho, A. A., Gomes, L. C., Albert, J. S., Baran, E., Petrere, M., Zarfl, C., Mulligan, M., Sullivan, J. P., Arantes, C. C., Sousa, L. M., Koning, A. A., Hoeinghaus, D. J., Sabaj, M., Lundberg, J. G., Armbruster, J., Thieme, M. L., Petry, P., Zuanon, J., Torrente Vilara, G., Snoeks, J., Ou, C., Rainboth, W., Pavanelli, C. S., Akama, A., Van Soesbergen, A., and Sáenz, L.: Balancing hydropower and biodiversity in the Amazon, Congo, and Mekong, Science, 351, 128–129, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac7082, 2016.
Yamazaki, D., Kanae, S., Kim, H., and Oki, T.: A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model, Water Resour. Res., 47, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009726, 2011.
Yamazaki, D., Lee, H., Alsdorf, D. E., Dutra, E., Kim, H., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Yamazaki, C., Lee, H., Alsdorf, D. E., Dutra, E., Kim, H., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: Analysis of the water level dynamics simulated by a global river model: A case study in the Amazon River, Water Resour. Res., 48, 9508, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR011869, 2012.
Yamazaki, D., De Almeida, G. A. M., and Bates, P. D.: Improving computational efficiency in global river models by implementing the local inertial flow equation and a vector-based river network map, Water Resour. Res., 49, 7221–7235, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20552, 2013.
Yamazaki, D., Ikeshima, D., Sosa, J., Bates, P. D., Allen, G. H., and Pavelsky, T. M.: MERIT Hydro: a high-resolution global hydrography map based on latest topography dataset, Water Resour. Res., 55, 5053–5073, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024873, 2019.
Yoshida, Y., Lee, H. S., Trung, B. H., Tran, H. D., Lall, M. K., Kakar, K., and Xuan, T. D.: Impacts of mainstream hydropower dams on fisheries and agriculture in lower mekong basin, Sustainability (Switzerland), 12, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062408, 2020.
Yuan, S., Stuart, A. M., Laborte, A. G., Rattalino Edreira, J. I., Dobermann, A., Kien, L. V. N., Thúy, L. T., Paothong, K., Traesang, P., Tint, K. M., San, S. S., Villafuerte, M. Q., Quicho, E. D., Pame, A. R. P., Then, R., Flor, R. J., Thon, N., Agus, F., Agustiani, N., Deng, N., Li, T., and Grassini, P.: Southeast Asia must narrow down the yield gap to continue to be a major rice bowl, Nature Food, 3, 217–226, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00477-z, 2022.
Zarfl, C., Lumsdon, A. E., Berlekamp, J., Tydecks, L., and Tockner, K.: A global boom in hydropower dam construction, Aquat. Sci., 77, 161–170, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-014-0377-0, 2014.
Zhang, A. T. and Gu, V. X.: Global Dam Tracker: A database of more than 35,000 dams with location, catchment, and attribute information, Sci. Data, 10, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02008-2, 2023.
Ziv, G., Baran, E., Nam, S., Rodríguez-Iturbe, I., and Levin, S. A.: Trading-off fish biodiversity, food security, and hydropower in the Mekong River Basin, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 5609–5614, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1201423109, 2012.
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we...
