Articles | Volume 25, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2821-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2821-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 May 2021
Research article |
| 26 May 2021
| 26 May 2021
Estimating the probability of compound floods in estuarine regions
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of
Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, The
University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 5005, Australia
Seth Westra
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, The
University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 5005, Australia
Michael Leonard
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, The
University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 5005, Australia
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Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Andrew W. Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, and Kirsti Hakala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 941–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, 2022
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Forecasts of evaporative water loss in the future are highly valuable for water resource management. These forecasts are often produced using the outputs of climate models. We developed an innovative method to correct errors in these forecasts, particularly the errors caused by deficiencies of climate models in modeling the changing climate. We apply this method to seasonal forecasts of evaporative water loss across Australia and achieve significant improvements in the forecast quality.
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
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In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and emergency response planning, but design flood estimation guidance under climate change is still in its infancy. We perform the first published systematic review of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation and conduct a meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes in extreme rainfall.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Andrew W. Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, and Kirsti Hakala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 941–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, 2022
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Forecasts of evaporative water loss in the future are highly valuable for water resource management. These forecasts are often produced using the outputs of climate models. We developed an innovative method to correct errors in these forecasts, particularly the errors caused by deficiencies of climate models in modeling the changing climate. We apply this method to seasonal forecasts of evaporative water loss across Australia and achieve significant improvements in the forecast quality.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
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We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Phuong Dong Le, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4851–4867, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019, 2019
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Bree Bennett, Mark Thyer, Michael Leonard, Martin Lambert, and Bryson Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4783–4801, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4783-2019, 2019
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Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, 2018
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Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Hong Xuan Do, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
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Lukas Gudmundsson, Hong Xuan Do, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, 2017
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This study assessed the impact of baseline climate conditions on the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration (PET) to a large range of plausible changes in temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed at 30 Australian locations. Around 2-fold greater PET changes were observed at cool and humid locations compared to others, indicating potential for elevated water loss in the future. These impacts can be useful to inform the selection of PET models under a changing climate.
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Subject: Coasts and Estuaries | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Forecasting estuarine salt intrusion in the Rhine–Meuse delta using an LSTM model
Mangroves as nature-based mitigation for ENSO-driven compound flood risks in a river delta
Coastal topography and hydrogeology control critical groundwater gradients and potential beach surface instability during storm surges
Effect of tides on river water behavior over the eastern shelf seas of China
Extreme precipitation events induce high fluxes of groundwater and associated nutrients to coastal ocean
Temporally resolved coastal hypoxia forecasting and uncertainty assessment via Bayesian mechanistic modeling
Assessing the dependence structure between oceanographic, fluvial, and pluvial flooding drivers along the United States coastline
Statistical modelling and climate variability of compound surge and precipitation events in a managed water system: a case study in the Netherlands
Accretion, retreat and transgression of coastal wetlands experiencing sea-level rise
Climate change overtakes coastal engineering as the dominant driver of hydrological change in a large shallow lagoon
Dynamic mechanism of an extremely severe saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang estuary in February 2014
A novel approach for the assessment of morphological evolution based on observed water levels in tide-dominated estuaries
Seasonal behaviour of tidal damping and residual water level slope in the Yangtze River estuary: identifying the critical position and river discharge for maximum tidal damping
Sediment budget analysis of the Guayas River using a process-based model
Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy)
Analytical and numerical study of the salinity intrusion in the Sebou river estuary (Morocco) – effect of the “Super Blood Moon” (total lunar eclipse) of 2015
Linking biogeochemistry to hydro-geometrical variability in tidal estuaries: a generic modeling approach
Impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South–North Water Transfer Project and water abstractions on the duration and intensity of salt intrusions in the Yangtze River estuary
A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling
Revised predictive equations for salt intrusion modelling in estuaries
Impact of the Hoa Binh dam (Vietnam) on water and sediment budgets in the Red River basin and delta
Large-scale suspended sediment transport and sediment deposition in the Mekong Delta
Hydrodynamic controls on oxygen dynamics in a riverine salt wedge estuary, the Yarra River estuary, Australia
Assessing hydrological effects of human interventions on coastal systems: numerical applications to the Venice Lagoon
Environmental flow assessments in estuaries based on an integrated multi-objective method
Modelling climate change effects on a Dutch coastal groundwater system using airborne electromagnetic measurements
An analytical solution for tidal propagation in the Yangtze Estuary, China
Understanding and managing the Westerschelde – synchronizing the physical system and the management system of a complex estuary
Bas J. M. Wullems, Claudia C. Brauer, Fedor Baart, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3823–3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023, 2023
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In deltas, saltwater sometimes intrudes far inland and causes problems with freshwater availability. We created a model to forecast salt concentrations at a critical location in the Rhine–Meuse delta in the Netherlands. It requires a rather small number of data to make a prediction and runs fast. It predicts the occurrence of salt concentration peaks well but underestimates the highest peaks. Its speed gives water managers more time to reduce the problems caused by salt intrusion.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Olivier Gourgue, Luis Elvin Dominguez-Granda, and Stijn Temmerman
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The combination of extreme sea levels with increased river flow typically can lead to so-called compound floods. Often these are caused by storms (< 1 day), but climatic evens such as El Niño could trigger such compound floods over a period of months. We show that the combination of increased sea level and river discharge cause extreme water levels to amplify upstream. Mangrove forests, however, can act as a nature-based flood protection by lowering the extreme water levels coming from the sea.
Anner Paldor, Nina Stark, Matthew Florence, Britt Raubenheimer, Steve Elgar, Rachel Housego, Ryan S. Frederiks, and Holly A. Michael
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5987–6002, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5987-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5987-2022, 2022
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Ocean surges can impact the stability of beaches by changing the hydraulic regime. These surge-induced changes in the hydraulic regime have important implications for coastal engineering and for beach morphology. This work uses 3D computer simulations to study how these alterations vary in space and time. We find that certain areas along and across the beach are potentially more vulnerable than others and that previous assumptions regarding the most dangerous places may need to be revised.
Lei Lin, Hao Liu, Xiaomeng Huang, Qingjun Fu, and Xinyu Guo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5207–5225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5207-2022, 2022
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Marc Diego-Feliu, Valentí Rodellas, Aaron Alorda-Kleinglass, Maarten Saaltink, Albert Folch, and Jordi Garcia-Orellana
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4619–4635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4619-2022, 2022
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Alexey Katin, Dario Del Giudice, and Daniel R. Obenour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1131–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1131-2022, 2022
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Low oxygen conditions (hypoxia) occur almost every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here, we present a new approach for forecasting hypoxia from June through September, leveraging a process-based model and an advanced statistical framework. We also show how using spring hydrometeorological information can improve forecast accuracy while reducing uncertainties. The proposed forecasting system shows the potential to support the management of threatened coastal ecosystems and fisheries.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
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Víctor M. Santos, Mercè Casas-Prat, Benjamin Poschlod, Elisa Ragno, Bart van den Hurk, Zengchao Hao, Tímea Kalmár, Lianhua Zhu, and Husain Najafi
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We present an application of multivariate statistical models to assess compound flooding events in a managed reservoir. Data (from a previous study) were obtained from a physical-based hydrological model driven by a regional climate model large ensemble, providing a time series expanding up to 800 years in length that ensures stable statistics. The length of the data set allows for a sensitivity assessment of the proposed statistical framework to natural climate variability.
Angelo Breda, Patricia M. Saco, Steven G. Sandi, Neil Saintilan, Gerardo Riccardi, and José F. Rodríguez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 769–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-769-2021, 2021
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Peisheng Huang, Karl Hennig, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, and Matthew R. Hipsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5673–5697, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5673-2020, 2020
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Our results conclude that the climate change in the past decades has a remarkable effect on the hydrology of a large shallow lagoon with the same magnitude as that caused by the opening of an artificial channel, and it also highlighted the complexity of their interactions. We suggested that the consideration of the projected drying trend is essential in designing management plans associated with planning for environmental water provision and setting water quality loading targets.
Jianrong Zhu, Xinyue Cheng, Linjiang Li, Hui Wu, Jinghua Gu, and Hanghang Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5043-2020, 2020
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An extremely severe saltwater intrusion event occurred in February 2014 in the Changjiang estuary and seriously influenced the water intake of the reservoir. For the event cause and for freshwater safety, the dynamic mechanism was studied with observed data and a numerical model. The results indicated that this event was caused by a persistent and strong northerly wind, which formed a horizontal estuarine circulation, surpassed seaward runoff and drove highly saline water into the estuary.
Huayang Cai, Ping Zhang, Erwan Garel, Pascal Matte, Shuai Hu, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1871-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1871-2020, 2020
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Understanding the morphological changes in estuaries due to natural processes and human interventions is especially important with regard to sustainable water management and ecological impacts on the estuarine environment. In this contribution, we explore the morphological evolution in tide-dominated estuaries by means of a novel analytical approach using the observed water levels along the channel. The method could serve as a useful tool to understand the evolution of estuarine morphology.
Huayang Cai, Hubert H. G. Savenije, Erwan Garel, Xianyi Zhang, Leicheng Guo, Min Zhang, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2779–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2779-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2779-2019, 2019
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Tide–river dynamics play an essential role in large-scale river deltas as they exert a tremendous impact on delta morphodynamics, salt intrusion and deltaic ecosystems. For the first time, we illustrate that there is a critical river discharge, beyond which tidal damping is reduced with increasing river discharge, and we explore the underlying mechanism using an analytical model. The results are useful for guiding sustainable water management and sediment transport in tidal rivers.
Pedro D. Barrera Crespo, Erik Mosselman, Alessio Giardino, Anke Becker, Willem Ottevanger, Mohamed Nabi, and Mijail Arias-Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2763–2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, 2019
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Guayaquil, the commercial capital of Ecuador, is located along the Guayas River. The city is among the most vulnerable cities to future flooding ascribed to climate change. Fluvial sedimentation is seen as one of the factors contributing to flooding. This paper describes the dominant processes in the river and the effects of past interventions in the overall sediment budget. This is essential to plan and design effective mitigation measures to face the latent risk that threatens Guayaquil.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Martin Widmann, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017
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We develop a conceptual model to quantify the risk of compound events (CEs), i.e. extreme impacts to society which are driven by statistically dependent climatic variables. Based on this model we study compound floods, i.e. joint storm surge and high river level, in Ravenna (Italy). The model includes meteorological predictors which (1) provide insight into the physical processes underlying CEs, as well as into the temporal variability, and (2) allow us to statistically downscale CEs.
Soufiane Haddout, Mohammed Igouzal, and Abdellatif Maslouhi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3923–3945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3923-2016, 2016
Chiara Volta, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Sandra Arndt, and Pierre Regnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 991–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-991-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-991-2016, 2016
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A generic estuarine model is applied to three idealized tidal estuaries representing the main hydro-geometrical estuarine classes. The study provides insight into the estuarine biogeochemical dynamics, in particular the air-water CO2/sub> flux, as well as the potential response to future environmental changes and to uncertainties in model parameter values. We believe that our approach could help improving upscaling strategies to better integrate estuaries in regional/global biogeochemical studies.
M. Webber, M. T. Li, J. Chen, B. Finlayson, D. Chen, Z. Y. Chen, M. Wang, and J. Barnett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4411–4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4411-2015, 2015
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This paper demonstrates a method for calculating the probability of long-duration salt intrusions in the Yangtze Estuary and examines the impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South-North Water Transfer Project and local abstractions on that probability. The relationship between river discharge and the intensity and duration of saline intrusions is shown to be probabilistic and continuous. That probability has more than doubled under the normal operating rules for those projects.
F. M. Achete, M. van der Wegen, D. Roelvink, and B. Jaffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2837–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2837-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2837-2015, 2015
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Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) levels are important indicator for the ecology of estuaries. Observations of SSC are difficult to make, therefore we revert to coupled 2-D hydrodynamic-sediment process-based transport models to make predictions in time (seasonal and yearly) and space (meters to kilometers). This paper presents calibration/validation of SSC for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and translates SSC to turbidity in order to couple with ecology models.
J. I. A. Gisen, H. H. G. Savenije, and R. C. Nijzink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2791–2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2791-2015, 2015
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We revised the predictive equations for two calibrated parameters in salt intrusion model (the Van der Burgh coefficient K and dispersion coefficient D) using an extended database of 89 salinity profiles including 8 newly conducted salinity measurements. The revised predictive equations consist of easily measured parameters such as the geometry of estuary, tide, friction and the Richardson number. These equations are useful in obtaining the first estimate of salinity distribution in an estuary.
V. D. Vinh, S. Ouillon, T. D. Thanh, and L. V. Chu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3987–4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3987-2014, 2014
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014
L. C. Bruce, P. L. M. Cook, I. Teakle, and M. R. Hipsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1397–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1397-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1397-2014, 2014
C. Ferrarin, M. Ghezzo, G. Umgiesser, D. Tagliapietra, E. Camatti, L. Zaggia, and A. Sarretta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, 2013
T. Sun, J. Xu, and Z. F. Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 751–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-751-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-751-2013, 2013
M. Faneca Sànchez, J. L. Gunnink, E. S. van Baaren, G. H. P. Oude Essink, B. Siemon, E. Auken, W. Elderhorst, and P. G. B. de Louw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4499–4516, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4499-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4499-2012, 2012
E. F. Zhang, H. H. G. Savenije, S. L. Chen, and X. H. Mao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3327–3339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3327-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3327-2012, 2012
A. van Buuren, L. Gerrits, and G. R. Teisman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2243–2257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2243-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2243-2010, 2010
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Short summary
Flood probability estimation is important for applications such as land use planning, reservoir operation, infrastructure design and safety assessments. However, it is a challenging task, especially in estuarine areas where floods are caused by both intense rainfall and storm surge. This study provides a review of approaches to flood probability estimation in these areas. Based on analysis of a real-world river system, guidance on method selection is provided.
Flood probability estimation is important for applications such as land use planning, reservoir...
