Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1831-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1831-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Mar 2018
Research article |
| 13 Mar 2018
| 13 Mar 2018
Relative effects of statistical preprocessing and postprocessing on a regional hydrological ensemble prediction system
Sanjib Sharma
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Ridwan Siddique
Northeast Climate Science Center, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA
Seann Reed
National Weather Service, Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, PA, USA
Peter Ahnert
National Weather Service, Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, PA, USA
Pablo Mendoza
Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Alfonso Mejia
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Related authors
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what it truly reflects in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and time scales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Diego Araya, Pablo A. Mendoza, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, and James McPhee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
Nicolás Cortés-Salazar, Nicolás Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3505–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows how important river models can be for water resource applications that involve hydrological models and, in particular, parameter calibration. To this end, we conduct numerical experiments in a pilot basin using a combination of hydrologic model simulations obtained from a large sample of parameter sets and different routing methods. We find that routing can affect streamflow simulations, even at monthly time steps; the choice of parameters; and relevant streamflow metrics.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Ulises M. Sepúlveda, Pablo A. Mendoza, Naoki Mizukami, and Andrew J. Newman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3419–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper characterizes parameter sensitivities across more than 5500 grid cells for a commonly used macroscale hydrological model, including a suite of eight performance metrics and 43 soil, vegetation and snow parameters. The results show that the model is highly overparameterized and, more importantly, help to provide guidance on the most relevant parameters for specific target processes across diverse climatic types.
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Pablo A. Mendoza, Ian McNamara, Hylke E. Beck, Joschka Thurner, Alexandra Nauditt, Lars Ribbe, and Nguyen Xuan Thinh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5805–5837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Most rivers worldwide are ungauged, which hinders the sustainable management of water resources. Regionalisation methods use information from gauged rivers to estimate streamflow over ungauged ones. Through hydrological modelling, we assessed how the selection of precipitation products affects the performance of three regionalisation methods. We found that a precipitation product that provides the best results in hydrological modelling does not necessarily perform the best for regionalisation.
Gerardo Zegers, Pablo A. Mendoza, Alex Garces, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1919–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of a numerical debris flow model and examine the effects of using post-event measurements on two creeks in Chile. Our results demonstrate the utility of sensitivity analysis in debris flow modeling and the benefits of post-event observations on parameter identifiability. This study provides guidance on the choice of uncertain parameters, contributing to more reliable simulations for debris flow risk assessments and land use planning.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Pablo A. Mendoza, Juan Pablo Boisier, Nans Addor, Mauricio Galleguillos, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Antonio Lara, Cristóbal Puelma, Gonzalo Cortes, Rene Garreaud, James McPhee, and Alvaro Ayala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
CAMELS-CL provides a catchment dataset in Chile, including 516 catchment boundaries, hydro-meteorological time series, and 70 catchment attributes quantifying catchments' climatic, hydrological, topographic, geological, land cover and anthropic intervention features. By using CAMELS-CL, we characterise hydro-climatic regional variations, assess precipitation and potential evapotranspiration uncertainties, and analyse human intervention impacts on catchment response.
Dusan Jovanovic, Tijana Jovanovic, Alfonso Mejía, Jon Hathaway, and Edoardo Daly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3551–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3551-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3551-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A relationship between the Hurst (H) exponent (a long-term correlation coefficient) within a flow time series and various catchment characteristics for a number of catchments in the USA and Australia was investigated. A negative relationship with imperviousness was identified, which allowed for an efficient catchment classification, thus making the H exponent a useful metric to quantitatively assess the impact of catchment imperviousness on streamflow regime.
Pablo A. Mendoza, Andrew W. Wood, Elizabeth Clark, Eric Rothwell, Martyn P. Clark, Bart Nijssen, Levi D. Brekke, and Jeffrey R. Arnold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3915–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water supply forecasts are critical to support water resources operations and planning. The skill of such forecasts depends on our knowledge of (i) future meteorological conditions and (ii) the amount of water stored in a basin. We address this problem by testing several approaches that make use of these sources of predictability, either separately or in a combined fashion. The main goal is to understand the marginal benefits of both information and methodological complexity in forecast skill.
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
On the visual detection of non-natural records in streamflow time series: challenges and impacts
Historical rainfall data in northern Italy predict larger meteorological drought hazard than climate projections
Daytime-only mean data enhance understanding of land–atmosphere coupling
Quantifying the uncertainty of precipitation forecasting using probabilistic deep learning
Unraveling the contribution of potential evaporation formulation to uncertainty under climate change
Exploring hydrologic post-processing of ensemble streamflow forecasts based on affine kernel dressing and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II
Choosing between post-processing precipitation forecasts or chaining several uncertainty quantification tools in hydrological forecasting systems
Performance of the Global Forecast System's medium-range precipitation forecasts in the Niger river basin using multiple satellite-based products
Uncertainties and their interaction in flood hazard assessment with climate change
Bias-correcting input variables enhances forecasting of reference crop evapotranspiration
Uncertainty of gridded precipitation and temperature reference datasets in climate change impact studies
At which timescale does the complementary principle perform best in evaporation estimation?
Uncertainty in nonstationary frequency analysis of South Korea's daily rainfall peak over threshold excesses associated with covariates
Assessment of extreme flows and uncertainty under climate change: disentangling the uncertainty contribution of representative concentration pathways, global climate models and internal climate variability
The accuracy of weather radar in heavy rain: a comparative study for Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden
A new uncertainty estimation approach with multiple datasets and implementation for various precipitation products
A crash-testing framework for predictive uncertainty assessment when forecasting high flows in an extrapolation context
Required sampling density of ground-based soil moisture and brightness temperature observations for calibration and validation of L-band satellite observations based on a virtual reality
Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations
Cross-validating precipitation datasets in the Indus River basin
Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics
Assessment of spatial uncertainty of heavy rainfall at catchment scale using a dense gauge network
Influence of three phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on daily precipitation regimes in China
Dual-polarized quantitative precipitation estimation as a function of range
Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951–2015)
Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes
Evaluation of multiple forcing data sets for precipitation and shortwave radiation over major land areas of China
Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate
Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region
Inter-comparison of daily precipitation products for large-scale hydro-climatic applications over Canada
Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to changes in climate variables for different Australian climatic zones
Characteristics of rainfall events in regional climate model simulations for the Czech Republic
The rainfall erosivity factor in the Czech Republic and its uncertainty
Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections
Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game
Assessment of small-scale variability of rainfall and multi-satellite precipitation estimates using measurements from a dense rain gauge network in Southeast India
Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands
Uncertainties in calculating precipitation climatology in East Asia
Measurement and interpolation uncertainties in rainfall maps from cellular communication networks
Characterization of precipitation product errors across the United States using multiplicative triple collocation
Exploring the impact of forcing error characteristics on physically based snow simulations within a global sensitivity analysis framework
Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12-year crop succession: impact of soil hydraulic and vegetation properties
Multi-objective parameter optimization of common land model using adaptive surrogate modeling
Testing gridded land precipitation data and precipitation and runoff reanalyses (1982–2010) between 45° S and 45° N with normalised difference vegetation index data
Evaluation of high-resolution precipitation analyses using a dense station network
Prediction of extreme floods based on CMIP5 climate models: a case study in the Beijiang River basin, South China
Estimating the water needed to end the drought or reduce the drought severity in the Carpathian region
Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison
Comparison of drought indicators derived from multiple data sets over Africa
The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps
Laurent Strohmenger, Eric Sauquet, Claire Bernard, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Amélie Bresson, Pierre Brigode, Rémy Buzier, Olivier Delaigue, Alexandre Devers, Guillaume Evin, Maïté Fournier, Shu-Chen Hsu, Sandra Lanini, Alban de Lavenne, Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Claire Magand, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Max Mentha, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Tristan Podechard, Léo Rouchy, Malak Sadki, Myriam Soutif-Bellenger, François Tilmant, Yves Tramblay, Anne-Lise Véron, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France. The objective was to detect non-natural records resulting from instrument failure or anthropogenic influences, such as hydroelectric power generation or reservoir management. We conclude that the identification of flaws in flow time series is highly dependent on the objectives and skills of individual evaluators, and we raise the need for better practices for data cleaning.
Rui Guo and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2847–2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The present study refers to the region of Bologna, where the availability of a 209-year-long daily rainfall series allows us to make a unique assessment of global climate models' reliability and their predicted changes in rainfall and multiyear droughts. Our results suggest carefully considering the impact of uncertainty when designing climate change adaptation policies for droughts. Rigorous use and comprehensive interpretation of the available information are needed to avoid mismanagement.
Zun Yin, Kirsten L. Findell, Paul Dirmeyer, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Khaled Ghannam, Nina Raoult, and Zhihong Tan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 861–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions typically focus on daytime processes connecting the land state with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. However, much prior L–A work used monthly or daily means due to the lack of daytime-only data products. Here we show that monthly smoothing can significantly obscure the L–A coupling signal, and including nighttime information can mute or mask the daytime processes of interest. We propose diagnosing L–A coupling within models or archiving subdaily data.
Lei Xu, Nengcheng Chen, Chao Yang, Hongchu Yu, and Zeqiang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2923–2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2923-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation forecasting has potential uncertainty due to data and model uncertainties. Here, an integrated predictive uncertainty modeling framework is proposed by jointly considering data and model uncertainties through an uncertainty propagation theorem. The results indicate an effective predictive uncertainty estimation for precipitation forecasting, indicating the great potential for uncertainty quantification of numerous predictive applications.
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Ludovic Oudin, Guillaume Thirel, and Lila Collet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2147–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2147-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing temperature will impact evaporation and water resource management. Hydrological models are fed with an estimation of the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, called potential evapotranspiration (PE). The objectives of this study were (1) to compute the future PE anomaly over France and (2) to determine the impact of the choice of the method to estimate PE. Our results show that all methods present similar future trends. No method really stands out from the others.
Jing Xu, François Anctil, and Marie-Amélie Boucher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1001–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is compared with a conventional post-processing method of affine kernel dressing. NSGA-II showed its superiority in improving the forecast skill and communicating trade-offs with end-users. It allows the enhancement of the forecast quality since it allows for setting multiple specific objectives from scratch. This flexibility should be considered as a reason to implement hydrologic ensemble prediction systems (H-EPSs).
Emixi Sthefany Valdez, François Anctil, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 197–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how a precipitation post-processor interacts with other tools for uncertainty quantification in a hydrometeorological forecasting chain. Four systems were implemented to generate 7 d ensemble streamflow forecasts, which vary from partial to total uncertainty estimation. Overall analysis showed that post-processing and initial condition estimation ensure the most skill improvements, in some cases even better than a system that considers all sources of uncertainty.
Haowen Yue, Mekonnen Gebremichael, and Vahid Nourani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 167–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The development of high-resolution global precipitation forecasts and the lack of reliable precipitation forecasts over Africa motivates this work to evaluate the precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) over the Niger river basin in Africa. The GFS forecasts, at a 15 d accumulation timescale, have an acceptable performance; however, the forecasts are highly biased. It is recommended to apply bias correction to GFS forecasts before their application.
Hadush Meresa, Conor Murphy, Rowan Fealy, and Saeed Golian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5237–5257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assessment of future impacts of climate change is associated with a cascade of uncertainty linked to the modelling chain employed in assessing local-scale changes. Understanding and quantifying this cascade is essential for developing effective adaptation actions. We find that not only do the contributions of different sources of uncertainty vary by catchment, but that the dominant sources of uncertainty can be very different on a catchment-by-catchment basis.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Kirsti Hakala, and Yating Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4773–4788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4773-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of water losses from land surface to the air are highly valuable for water resource management and planning. In this study, we aim to fill a critical knowledge gap in the forecasting of evaporative water loss. Model experiments across Australia clearly suggest the necessity of correcting errors in input variables for more reliable water loss forecasting. We anticipate that the strategy developed in our work will benefit future water loss forecasting and lead to more skillful forecasts.
Mostafa Tarek, François Brissette, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3331–3350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It is not known how much uncertainty the choice of a reference data set may bring to impact studies. This study compares precipitation and temperature data sets to evaluate the uncertainty contribution to the results of climate change studies. Results show that all data sets provide good streamflow simulations over the reference period. The reference data sets also provided uncertainty that was equal to or larger than that related to general circulation models over most of the catchments.
Liming Wang, Songjun Han, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 375–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-375-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-375-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear at which timescale the complementary principle performs best in estimating evaporation. In this study, evaporation estimation was assessed over 88 eddy covariance monitoring sites at multiple timescales. The results indicate that the generalized complementary functions perform best in estimating evaporation at the monthly scale. This study provides a reference for choosing a suitable time step for evaporation estimations in relevant studies.
Okjeong Lee, Jeonghyeon Choi, Jeongeun Won, and Sangdan Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5077–5093, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5077-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5077-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The uncertainty of the model interpreting rainfall extremes with temperature is analyzed. The performance of the model focuses on the reliability of the output. It has been found that the selection of temperatures suitable for extreme levels plays an important role in improving model reliability. Based on this, a methodology is proposed to quantify the degree of uncertainty inherent in the change in rainfall extremes due to global warming.
Chao Gao, Martijn J. Booij, and Yue-Ping Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3251–3269, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper studies the impact of climate change on high and low flows and quantifies the contribution of uncertainty sources from representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global climate models (GCMs) and internal climate variability in extreme flows. Internal climate variability was reflected in a stochastic rainfall model. The results show the importance of internal climate variability and GCM uncertainty in high flows and GCM and RCP uncertainty in low flows especially for the far future.
Marc Schleiss, Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, Tero Niemi, Teemu Kokkonen, Søren Thorndahl, Rasmus Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Denica Bozhinova, and Seppo Pulkkinen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3157–3188, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A multinational assessment of radar's ability to capture heavy rain events is conducted. In total, six different radar products in Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden were considered. Results show a fair agreement, with radar underestimating by 17 %-44 % on average compared with gauges. Despite being adjusted for bias, five of six radar products still exhibited strong conditional biases with intensities of 1–2% per mm/h. Median peak intensity bias was significantly higher, reaching 44 %–67%.
Xudong Zhou, Jan Polcher, Tao Yang, and Ching-Sheng Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2061–2081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article proposes a new estimation approach for assessing the uncertainty with multiple datasets by fully considering all variations in temporal and spatial dimensions. Comparisons demonstrate that classical metrics may underestimate the uncertainties among datasets due to an averaging process in their algorithms. This new approach is particularly suitable for overall assessment of multiple climatic products, but can be easily applied to other spatiotemporal products in related fields.
Lionel Berthet, François Bourgin, Charles Perrin, Julie Viatgé, Renaud Marty, and Olivier Piotte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2017–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2017-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An increasing number of flood forecasting services assess and communicate the uncertainty associated with their forecasts. We present a crash-testing framework that evaluates the quality of hydrological forecasts in an extrapolation context. Overall, the results highlight the challenge of uncertainty quantification when forecasting high flows. They show a significant drop in reliability when forecasting high flows and considerable variability among catchments and across lead times.
Shaoning Lv, Bernd Schalge, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, and Clemens Simmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1957–1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1957-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1957-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Passive remote sensing of soil moisture has good potential to improve weather forecasting via data assimilation in theory. We use the virtual reality data set (VR01) to infer the impact of sampling density on soil moisture ground cal/val activity. It shows how the sampling error is growing with an increasing sampling distance for a SMOS–SMAP scale footprint in about 40 km, 9 km, and 3 km. The conclusion will help in understanding the passive remote sensing soil moisture products.
Thanh Le and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1131–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1131-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1131-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the response of global evaporation to main climate modes, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results indicate that ENSO is an important driver of evaporation for many regions, while the impacts of NAO and IOD are substantial. This study allows us to obtain insight about the predictability of evaporation and, hence, may help to improve the early-warning systems of climate extremes.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 427–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-427-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of precipitation falling in the Indus River basin remains uncertain while its variability impacts 100 million inhabitants. A comparison of datasets from diverse sources (ground remote observations, model outputs) reduces this uncertainty significantly. Grounded observations offer the most reliable long-term variability but with important underestimation in winter over the mountains. By contrast, recent model outputs offer better estimations of total amount and short-term variability.
Kamal Ahmed, Dhanapala A. Sachindra, Shamsuddin Shahid, Mehmet C. Demirel, and Eun-Sung Chung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4803–4824, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4803-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4803-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the performance of 36 CMIP5 GCMs in simulating seasonal precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan using spatial metrics (SPAtial EFficiency, fractions skill score, Goodman–Kruskal's lambda, Cramer's V, Mapcurves, and Kling–Gupta efficiency) for the period 1961–2005. NorESM1-M, MIROC5, BCC-CSM1-1, and ACCESS1-3 were identified as the most suitable GCMs for simulating all three climate variables over Pakistan.
Sungmin O and Ulrich Foelsche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2863–2875, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2863-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze heavy local rainfall to address questions regarding the spatial uncertainty due to the approximation of areal rainfall using point measurements. Ten years of rainfall data from a dense network of 150 rain gauges in southeastern Austria are employed, which permits robust examination of small-scale rainfall at various horizontal resolutions. Quantitative uncertainty information from the study can guide both data users and producers to estimate uncertainty in their own rainfall dataset.
Aifeng Lv, Bo Qu, Shaofeng Jia, and Wenbin Zhu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 883–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
ENSO-related changes in daily precipitation regimes are currently ignored by the scientific community. We analyzed the anomalies of daily precipitation and hydrological extremes caused by different phases of ENSO events, as well as the possible driving mechanisms, to reveal the influence of ENSO on China's daily precipitation regimes. Our results provide a valuable tool for daily precipitation prediction and enable the prioritization of adaptation efforts ahead of extreme events in China.
Micheal J. Simpson and Neil I. Fox
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3375–3389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3375-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3375-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Many researchers have expressed that one of the main difficulties in modeling watershed hydrology is that of obtaining continuous, widespread weather input data, especially precipitation. The overarching objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive study of three weather radars as a function of range. We found that radar-estimated precipitation was best at ranges between 100 and 150 km from the radar, with different radar parameters being superior at varying distances from the radar.
Vimal Mishra, Reepal Shah, Syed Azhar, Harsh Shah, Parth Modi, and Rohini Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2269–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2269-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2269-2018, 2018
Kevin Sene, Wlodek Tych, and Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 127–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The theme of the paper is exploration of the potential for seasonal flow forecasting for large lakes using a range of stochastic transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes.
Fan Yang, Hui Lu, Kun Yang, Jie He, Wei Wang, Jonathon S. Wright, Chengwei Li, Menglei Han, and Yishan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5805–5821, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5805-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we show that CLDAS has the highest spatial and temporal resolution, and it performs best in terms of precipitation, while it overestimates the shortwave radiation. CMFD also has high resolution and its shortwave radiation data match well with the station data; its annual-mean precipitation is reliable but its monthly precipitation needs improvements. Both GLDAS and CN05.1 over mainland China need to be improved. The results can benefit researchers for forcing data selection.
Rachel Bazile, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Luc Perreault, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.
Judith Eeckman, Pierre Chevallier, Aaron Boone, Luc Neppel, Anneke De Rouw, Francois Delclaux, and Devesh Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4879–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4879-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The central part of the Himalayan Range presents tremendous heterogeneity in terms of topography and climatology, but the representation of hydro-climatic processes for Himalayan catchments is limited due to a lack of knowledge in such poorly instrumented environments. The proposed approach is to characterize the effect of altitude on precipitation by considering ensembles of acceptable altitudinal factors. Ensembles of acceptable values for the components of the water cycle are then provided.
Jefferson S. Wong, Saman Razavi, Barrie R. Bonsal, Howard S. Wheater, and Zilefac E. Asong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2163–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2163-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study was conducted to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of the errors associated with various gridded precipitation products in Canada. Overall, WFDEI [GPCC] and CaPA performed best with respect to different performance measures, followed by ANUSPLIN and WEDEI [CRU]. Princeton and NARR demonstrated the lowest quality. Comparing the climate model-simulated products, PCIC ensembles generally performed better than NA-CORDEX ensembles in terms of reliability in four seasons.
Danlu Guo, Seth Westra, and Holger R. Maier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study assessed the impact of baseline climate conditions on the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration (PET) to a large range of plausible changes in temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed at 30 Australian locations. Around 2-fold greater PET changes were observed at cool and humid locations compared to others, indicating potential for elevated water loss in the future. These impacts can be useful to inform the selection of PET models under a changing climate.
Vojtěch Svoboda, Martin Hanel, Petr Máca, and Jan Kyselý
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 963–980, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-963-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-963-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents validation of precipitation events as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models for the Czech Republic. While the number of events per season, seasonal total precipitation due to heavy events and the distribution of rainfall depths are simulated relatively well, event maximum precipitation and event intensity are strongly underestimated. This underestimation cannot be explained by scale mismatch between point observations and area average (climate model simulations).
Martin Hanel, Petr Máca, Petr Bašta, Radek Vlnas, and Pavel Pech
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4307–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4307-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4307-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper is focused on assessment of the contribution of various sources of uncertainty to the estimated rainfall erosivity factor. It is shown that the rainfall erosivity factor can be estimated with reasonable precision even from records shorter than recommended, provided good spatial coverage and reasonable explanatory variables are available. The research was done as an update of the R factor estimates for the Czech Republic, which were later used for climate change assessment.
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.
K. Sunilkumar, T. Narayana Rao, and S. Satheeshkumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1719-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1719-2016, 2016
Vincent Roth and Tatenda Lemann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 921–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-921-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-921-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) suggests using the CFSR global rainfall data for modelling discharge and soil erosion in data-scarce parts of the world. These data are freely available and ready to use for SWAT modelling. However, simulations with the CFSR data in the Ethiopian Highlands were unable to represent the specific regional climates and showed high discrepancies. This article compares SWAT simulations with conventional rainfall data and with CFSR rainfall data.
J. Kim and S. K. Park
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 651–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-651-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the uncertainty in climatological precipitation in East Asia, calculated from five gridded analysis data sets based on in situ rain gauge observations from 1980 to 2007. It is found that the regions of large uncertainties are typically lightly populated and are characterized by severe terrain and/or very high elevations. Thus, care must be taken in using long-term trends calculated from gridded precipitation analysis data for climate studies over such regions in East Asia.
M. F. Rios Gaona, A. Overeem, H. Leijnse, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3571–3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3571-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial cellular networks are built for telecommunication purposes. These kinds of networks have lately been used to obtain rainfall maps at country-wide scales. From previous studies, we now quantify the uncertainties associated with such maps. To do so, we divided the sources or error into two categories: from microwave link measurements and from mapping. It was found that the former is the source that contributes the most to the overall error in rainfall maps from microwave link network.
S. H. Alemohammad, K. A. McColl, A. G. Konings, D. Entekhabi, and A. Stoffelen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3489–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3489-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a new variant of the triple collocation technique with multiplicative error model. The method is applied, for the first time, to precipitation products across the central part of continental USA. Results show distinctive patterns of error variance in each product that are estimated without a priori assumption of any of the error distributions. The correlation coefficients between each product and the truth are also estimated, which provides another performance perspective.
M. S. Raleigh, J. D. Lundquist, and M. P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3153–3179, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3153-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis is used to examine how error characteristics (type, distributions, and magnitudes) in meteorological forcing data impact outputs from a physics-based snow model in four climates. Bias and error magnitudes were key factors in model sensitivity and precipitation bias often dominated. However, the relative importance of forcings depended somewhat on the selected model output. Forcing uncertainty was comparable to model structural uncertainty as found in other studies.
S. Garrigues, A. Olioso, J. C. Calvet, E. Martin, S. Lafont, S. Moulin, A. Chanzy, O. Marloie, S. Buis, V. Desfonds, N. Bertrand, and D. Renard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3109–3131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3109-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. Evapotranspiration mainly results from soil evaporation when it is simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This leads to a high sensitivity to the soil parameters. Errors on soil hydraulic properties can lead to a large bias in cumulative evapotranspiration over a long period of time. Accounting for uncertainties in soil properties is essential for land surface modelling.
W. Gong, Q. Duan, J. Li, C. Wang, Z. Di, Y. Dai, A. Ye, and C. Miao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2409-2015, 2015
S. O. Los
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1713–1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1713-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1713-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The study evaluates annual precipitation (largely rainfall) amounts for the tropics and subtropics; precipitation was obtained from ground observations, satellite observations and numerical weather forecasting models.
- Annual precipitation amounts from ground and satellite observations were the most realistic.
- Newer weather forecasting models better predicted annual precipitation than older models.
- Weather forecasting models predicted inaccurate precipitation amounts for Africa.
A. Kann, I. Meirold-Mautner, F. Schmid, G. Kirchengast, J. Fuchsberger, V. Meyer, L. Tüchler, and B. Bica
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1547–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a high resolution precipitation analysis system which operates on 1 km x 1 km resolution with high frequency updates of 5 minutes. The ability of such a system to adequately assess the convective precipitation distribution is evaluated by means of an independant, high resolution station network. This dense station network allows for a thorough evaluation of the analyses under different convective situations and of the representativeness error of raingaue measurements.
C. H. Wu, G. R. Huang, and H. J. Yu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1385–1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1385-2015, 2015
T. Antofie, G. Naumann, J. Spinoni, and J. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 177–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-177-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-177-2015, 2015
P. López López, J. S. Verkade, A. H. Weerts, and D. P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3411–3428, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014, 2014
G. Naumann, E. Dutra, P. Barbosa, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, and J. V. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1625–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014, 2014
K. Liechti, L. Panziera, U. Germann, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3853–3869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Abaza, M., Anctil, F., Fortin, V., and Perreault, L.: On the incidence of
meteorological and hydrological processors: effect of resolution, sharpness
and reliability of hydrological ensemble forecasts, J. Hydrol., 555, 371–384, 2017.
Addor, N., Jaun, S., Fundel, F., and Zappa, M.: An operational hydrological
ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case
studies and scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2327–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011, 2011.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and
Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood
early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.
Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., and
Salamon, P.: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol.,
517, 913–922, 2014.
Anderson, R. M., Koren, V. I., and Reed, S. M.: Using SSURGO data to improve
Sacramento Model a priori parameter estimates, J. Hydrol., 320, 103–116, 2006.
Baxter, M. A., Lackmann, G. M., Mahoney, K. M., Workoff, T. E., and Hamill, T.
M.: Verification of quantitative precipitation reforecasts over the southeastern
United States, Weather Forecast., 29, 1199–1207, 2014.
Bennett, J. C., Robertson, D. E., Shrestha, D. L., Wang, Q., Enever, D.,
Hapuarachchi, P., and Tuteja, N. K.: A System for Continuous Hydrological
Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9days, J. Hydrol., 519, 2832–2846, 2014.
Benninga, H.-J. F., Booij, M. J., Romanowicz, R. J., and Rientjes, T. H. M.:
Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological
conditions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5273–5291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5273-2017, 2017.
Bogner, K., Pappenberger, F., and Cloke, H. L.: Technical Note: The normal
quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1085–1094, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1085-2012, 2012.
Bourgin, F., Ramos, M.-H., Thirel, G., and Andreassian, V.: Investigating the
interactions between data assimilation and post-processing in hydrological
ensemble forecasting, J. Hydrol., 519, 2775–2784, 2014.
Brier, G. W.: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability,
Mon. Weather Rev., 78, 1–3, 1950.
Brown, J. D. and Seo, D.-J.: A nonparametric postprocessor for bias correction
of hydrometeorological and hydrologic ensemble forecasts, J. Hydrometeorol.,
11, 642–665, 2010.
Brown, J. D., Demargne, J., Seo, D.-J., and Liu, Y.: The Ensemble Verification
System (EVS): A software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological
and hydrologic variables at discrete locations, Environ. Model. Softw., 25, 854–872, 2010.
Brown, J. D., He, M., Regonda, S., Wu, L., Lee, H., and Seo, D.-J.: Verification
of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 2. Streamflow verification, J.
Hydrol., 519, 2847–2868, 2014.
Clark, M., Gangopadhyay, S., Hay, L., Rajagopalan, B., and Wilby, R.: The Schaake
shuffle: A method for reconstructing space–time variability in forecasted
precipitation and temperature fields, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 243–262, 2004.
Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble flood forecasting: a review, J. Hydrol.,
375, 613–626, 2009.
Dankers, R., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., Falloon, P. D., Fekete, B. M., Gosling,
S. N., Heinke, J., Kim, H., Masaki, Y., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., and
Wisser, D.: First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact
Model Intercomparison Project ensemble, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3257–3261,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302078110, 2014.
Demargne, J., Wu, L., Regonda, S. K., Brown, J. D., Lee, H., He, M., Seo, D.-J.,
Hartman, R., Herr, H. D., and Fresch, M.: The science of NOAA's operational
hydrologic ensemble forecast service, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 79–98, 2014.
Demirel, M. C., Booij, M. J., and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Effect of different
uncertainty sources on the skill of 10 day ensemble low flow forecasts for
two hydrological models, Water Resour. Res., 49, 4035–4053, 2013.
Demuth, N. and Rademacher, S.: Flood Forecasting in Germany – Challenges of
a Federal Structure and Transboundary Cooperation, Flood Forecasting: A
Global Perspective, Elsevier, 125–151, 2016.
Dogulu, N., López López, P., Solomatine, D. P., Weerts, A. H., and
Shrestha, D. L.: Estimation of predictive hydrologic uncertainty using the
quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting
catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3181–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, 2015.
Durkee, D. J., Frye, D. J., Fuhrmann, M. C., Lacke, C. M., Jeong, G. H., and
Mote, L. T.: Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on precipitation-type
frequency and distribution in the eastern United States, Theor. Appl. Climatol.,
94, 51–65, 2007.
Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A.
H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., and Donnelly, C.:
Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems, Wiley Interdisciplin.
Rev.: Water, 3, 391–418, 2016.
Fan, F. M., Collischonn, W., Meller, A., and Botelho, L. C. M.: Ensemble
streamflow forecasting experiments in a tropical basin: The São Francisco
river case study, J. Hydrol., 519, 2906–2919, 2014.
Fares, A., Awal, R., Michaud, J., Chu, P.-S., Fares, S., Kodama, K., and
Rosener, M.: Rainfall-runoff modeling in a flashy tropical watershed using the
distributed HL-RDHM model, J. Hydrol., 519, 3436–3447, 2014.
Gitro, C. M., Evans, M. S., and Grumm, R. H.: Two Major Heavy Rain/Flood Events
in the Mid-Atlantic: June 2006 and September 2011, J. Operat. Meteorol., 2,
152–168, https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2014.0213, 2014.
Golding, B., Roberts, N., Leoncini, G., Mylne, K., and Swinbank, R.: MOGREPS-UK
convection-permitting ensemble products for surface water flood forecasting:
Rationale and first results, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 1383–1406, 2016.
Hamill, T. M., Whitaker, J. S., and Wei, X.: Ensemble reforecasting: Improving
medium-range forecast skill using retrospective forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev.,
132, 1434–1447, 2004.
Hamill, T. M., Bates, G. T., Whitaker, J. S., Murray, D. R., Fiorino, M.,
Galarneau Jr., T. J., Zhu, Y., and Lapenta, W.: NOAA's second-generation global
medium-range ensemble reforecast dataset, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1553–1565, 2013.
Hersbach, H.: Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for
ensemble prediction systems, Weather Forecast., 15, 559–570, 2000.
Hopson, T. M. and Webster, P. J.: A 1–10-day ensemble forecasting scheme for
the major river basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting severe floods of 2003–07,
J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 618–641, 2010.
Jolliffe, I. T. and Stephenson, D. B.: Forecast verification: a practitioner's
guide in atmospheric science, Wiley, West Sussex, England, 2012.
Journel, A. G. and Huijbregts, C. J.: Mining geostatistics, Academic Press, London, 1978.
Kang, T. H., Kim, Y. O., and Hong, I. P.: Comparison of pre-and post-processors
for ensemble streamflow prediction, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, 153–159, 2010.
Koenker, R.: Quantile regression, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 38,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511754098, 2005.
Koenker, R. and Bassett Jr., G.: Regression quantiles, Econometrica, 46, 33–50, 1978.
Koren, V., Smith, M., Wang, D., and Zhang, Z.: 2.16 Use of soil property data
in the derivation of conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters, in: Proceedings
of the 15th Conference on Hydrology, American Meteorological Society, Long Beach,
California, 103–106, 2000.
Koren, V., Reed, S., Smith, M., Zhang, Z., and Seo, D.-J.: Hydrology laboratory
research modeling system (HL-RMS) of the US national weather service, J. Hydrol.,
291, 297–318, 2004.
Krzysztofowicz, R.: Transformation and normalization of variates with specified
distributions, J. Hydrol., 197, 286–292, 1997.
Kuzmin, V.: Algorithms of automatic calibration of multi-parameter models used
in operational systems of flash flood forecasting, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol.,
34, 473–481, 2009.
Kuzmin, V., Seo, D.-J., and Koren, V.: Fast and efficient optimization of
hydrologic model parameters using a priori estimates and stepwise line search,
J. Hydrol., 353, 109–128, 2008.
López López, P., Verkade, J. S., Weerts, A. H., and Solomatine, D. P.:
Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive
uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3411–3428, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014, 2014.
Madadgar, S., Moradkhani, H., and Garen, D.: Towards improved post-processing
of hydrologic forecast ensembles, Hydrol. Process., 28, 104–122, 2014.
MARFC: http://www.weather.gov/marfc/Top20, last access: 1 April 2017.
McCuen, R. H. and Snyder, W. M.: A proposed index for comparing hydrographs,
Water Resour. Res., 11, 1021–1024, 1975.
Mendoza, P. A., McPhee, J., and Vargas, X.: Uncertainty in flood forecasting:
A distributed modeling approach in a sparse data catchment, Water Resour. Res.,
48, W09532, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011wr011089, 2012.
Mendoza, P. A., Wood, A., Clark, E., Nijssen, B., Clark, M., Ramos, M. H., and
Voisin, N.: Improving medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts through
statistical postprocessing, Presented at 2016 Fall Meeting, AGU, 11–15 December 2016,
San Francisco, California, 2016.
Messner, J. W., Mayr, G. J., Zeileis, A., and Wilks, D. S.: Heteroscedastic
extended logistic regression for postprocessing of ensemble guidance, Mon.
Weather Rev., 142, 448–456, 2014a.
Messner, J. W., Mayr, G. J., Wilks, D. S., and Zeileis, A.: Extending extended
logistic regression: Extended versus separate versus ordered versus censored,
Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 3003–3014, 2014b.
Moore, B. J., Mahoney, K. M., Sukovich, E. M., Cifelli, R., and Hamill, T. M.:
Climatology and environmental characteristics of extreme precipitation events
in the southeastern United States, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 718–741, 2015.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.
NCAR: https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/system-for-hydromet-analysis-research-and-prediction-sharp,
last access: 1 April 2017.
Pagano, T. C., Elliott, J., Anderson, B., and Perkins, J.: Australian Bureau of
Meteorology Flood Forecasting and Warning, in: Flood Forecasting, Elsevier, 3–40, 2016.
Pagano, T. C., Wood, A. W., Ramos, M.-H., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Clark,
M. P., Cranston, M., Kavetski, D., Mathevet, T., and Sorooshian, S.: Challenges
of operational river forecasting, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1692–1707, 2014.
Politis, D. N. and Romano, J. P.: The stationary bootstrap, J. Am. Stat. Assoc.,
89, 1303–1313, 1994.
Polsky, C., Allard, J., Currit, N., Crane, R., and Yarnal, B.: The Mid-Atlantic
Region and its climate: past, present, and future, Clim. Res., 14, 161–173, 2000.
Prat, O. P. and Nelson, B. R.: Evaluation of precipitation estimates over CONUS
derived from satellite, radar, and rain gauge data sets at daily to annual
scales (2002–2012), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2037–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2037-2015, 2015.
Rafieeinasab, A., Norouzi, A., Kim, S., Habibi, H., Nazari, B., Seo, D.-J.,
Lee, H., Cosgrove, B., and Cui, Z.: Toward high-resolution flash flood prediction
in large urban areas – Analysis of sensitivity to spatiotemporal resolution of
rainfall input and hydrologic modeling, J. Hydrol., 531, 370–388, 2015.
Reed, S., Koren, V., Smith, M., Zhang, Z., Moreda, F., and Seo, D. J.: Overall
distributed model intercomparison project results, J. Hydrol., 298, 27–60, 2004.
Reed, S., Schaake, J., and Zhang, Z.: A distributed hydrologic model and
threshold frequency-based method for flash flood forecasting at ungauged
locations, J. Hydrol., 337, 402–420, 2007.
Regonda, S. K., Seo, D. J., Lawrence, B., Brown, J. D., and Demargne, J.:
Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced
single-valued streamflow forecasts – A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS)
approach, J. Hydrol., 497, 80–96, 2013.
Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., and Franks, S. W.:
Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge
of identifying input and structural errors, Water Resour. Res., 46, W05521,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009wr008328, 2010.
Roulin, E. and Vannitsem, S.: Post-processing of medium-range probabilistic
hydrological forecasting: impact of forcing, initial conditions and model errors,
Hydrol. Process., 29, 1434–1449, 2015.
Saleh, F., Ramaswamy, V., Georgas, N., Blumberg, A. F., and Pullen, J.: A
retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event:
a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin, Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 20, 2649–2667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2649-2016, 2016.
Schaake, J. C., Hamill, T. M., Buizza, R., and Clark, M.: HEPEX: the hydrological
ensemble prediction experiment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1541–1547, 2007.
Schellekens, J., Weerts, A., Moore, R., Pierce, C., and Hildon, S.: The use of
MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems
across England and Wales, Adv. Geosci., 29, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-77-2011, 2011.
Schwanenberg, D., Fan, F. M., Naumann, S., Kuwajima, J. I., Montero, R. A., and
Dos Reis, A. A.: Short-term reservoir optimization for flood mitigation under
meteorological and hydrological forecast uncertainty, Water Resour. Manage.,
29, 1635–1651, 2015.
Sharma, S., Siddique, R., Balderas, N., Fuentes, J. D., Reed, S., Ahnert, P.,
Shedd, R., Astifan, B., Cabrera, R., Laing, A., Klein, M., and Mejia, A.: Eastern
U.S. Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts, Weather Forecast., 32, 117–139, 2017.
Shi, X., Andrew, W. W., and Dennis, P. L.: How essential is hydrologic model
calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 1350–1363, 2008.
Siddique, R. and Mejia, A.: Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting across the US Mid-Atlantic
Region with a Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by GEFS Reforecasts, J.
Hydrometeorol., 18, 1905–1928, 2017.
Siddique, R., Mejia, A., Brown, J., Reed, S., and Ahnert, P.: Verification of
precipitation forecasts from two numerical weather prediction models in the
Middle Atlantic Region of the USA: A precursory analysis to hydrologic
forecasting, J. Hydrol., 529, 1390–1406, 2015.
Sloughter, J. M. L., Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., and Fraley, C.: Probabilistic
quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging, Mon.
Weather Rev., 135, 3209–3220, 2007.
Smith, M. B., Koren, V., Reed, S., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Y., Moreda, F., Cui, Z.,
Mizukami, N., Anderson, E. A., and Cosgrove, B. A.: The distributed model
intercomparison project – Phase 2: Motivation and design of the Oklahoma
experiments, J. Hydrol., 418, 3–16, 2012a.
Smith, M. B., Koren, V., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Y., Reed, S. M., Cui, Z., Moreda,
F., Cosgrove, B. A., Mizukami, N., and Anderson, E. A.: Results of the DMIP 2
Oklahoma experiments, J. Hydrol., 418, 17–48, 2012b.
Thiemig, V., Bisselink, B., Pappenberger, F., and Thielen, J.: A pan-African
medium-range ensemble flood forecast system, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19,
3365–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3365-2015, 2015.
Thorstensen, A., Nguyen, P., Hsu, K., and Sorooshian, S.: Using Densely
Distributed Soil Moisture Observations for Calibration of a Hydrologic Model,
J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 571–590, 2016.
Verkade, J., Brown, J., Reggiani, P., and Weerts, A.: Post-processing ECMWF
precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic
forecasting at various spatial scales, J. Hydrol., 501, 73–91, 2013.
Wang, Q., Bennett, J. C., and Robertson, D. E.: Error reduction and representation
in stages (ERRIS) in hydrological modelling for ensemble streamflow forecasting,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3561–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, 2016.
Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Salamon, P., Simpson, A., Bates, P., De Groeve, T.,
Muis, S., De Perez, E. C., Rudari, R., and Trigg, M. A.: Usefulness and
limitations of global flood risk models, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 712–715, 2015.
Weerts, A. H., Winsemius, H. C., and Verkade, J. S.: Estimation of predictive
hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the National
Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15,
255–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-255-2011, 2011.
Wheater, H. S. and Gober, P.: Water security and the science agenda, Water
Resour. Res., 51, 5406–5424, 2015.
Wilks, D. S.: Extending logistic regression to provide full-probability-distribution
MOS forecasts, Meteorol. Appl., 16, 361–368, 2009.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Academic Press,
Diego, California, 2011.
Yang, X., Sharma, S., Siddique, R., Greybush, S. J., and Mejia, A.: Postprocessing
of GEFS Precipitation Ensemble Reforecasts over the US Mid-Atlantic Region,
Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 1641–1658, 2017.
Ye, A., Qingyun, D., Xing, Y., Eric, F. W., and John, S.: Hydrologic post-processing
of MOPEX streamflow simulations, J. Hydrol., 508, 147–156, 2014.
Yuan, X. and Wood, E. F.: Downscaling precipitation or bias-correcting
streamflow? Some implications for coupled general circulation model (CGCM)-based
ensemble seasonal hydrologic forecast, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12519,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012256, 2012.
Zalachori, I., Ramos, M.-H., Garçon, R., Mathevet, T., and Gailhard, J.:
Statistical processing of forecasts for hydrological ensemble prediction: a
comparative study of different bias correction strategies, Adv. Sci. Res.,
8, 135–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-8-135-2012, 2012.
Zappa, M., Rotach, M. W., Arpagaus, M., Dorninger, M., Hegg, C., Montani, A.,
Ranzi, R., Ament, F., Germann, U., and Grossi, G.: MAP D-PHASE: real-time
demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems, Atmos. Sci. Lett.,
9, 80–87, 2008.
Zappa, M., Jaun, S., Germann, U., Walser, A., and Fundel, F.: Superposition
of three sources of uncertainties in operational flood forecasting chains,
Atmos. Res., 100, 246–262, 2011.
Zhao, L., Duan, Q., Schaake, J., Ye, A., and Xia, J.: A hydrologic post-processor
for ensemble streamflow predictions, Adv. Geosci., 29, 51–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-51-2011, 2011.
Short summary
We investigate the relative roles of statistical weather preprocessing and streamflow postprocessing in hydrological ensemble forecasting at short- to medium-range forecast lead times (day 1–7). For this purpose, we develop and implement a regional hydrologic ensemble prediction system (RHEPS). Overall analysis shows that implementing both preprocessing and postprocessing ensures the most skill improvements, but postprocessing alone can often be a competitive alternative.
We investigate the relative roles of statistical weather preprocessing and streamflow...
