Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Nov 2017
Research article |
| 14 Nov 2017
Analysis and modelling of a 9.3 kyr palaeoflood record: correlations, clustering, and cycles
Annette Witt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organisation,
Göttingen, Germany
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
Clara Mangili
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
now at: Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of
Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Achim Brauer
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
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Lakshmi S. Gopal, Rekha Prabha, Hemalatha Thirugnanam, Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh, and Bruce D. Malamud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, 2024
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We critically reviewed 250 articles from 2010 to 2023, analysed how social media is used to manage disasters, and developed the Social Media Literature Database. We summarise the methods used for data collection and filtering. Key findings include the widespread use of the latest technologies to handle data, proficiency in spatiotemporal analysis, and gaps in community interaction and resource identification. We also propose best practices for using social media to enhance disaster management.
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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We describe a methodology to systematically gather evidence of the breadth of single natural hazards and their multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings. We apply this methodology to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, where we find evidence of 21 single hazard types, and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships. This evidence is supplemented with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders engaged in disaster risk reduction research and practice in Kathmandu Valley.
Ido Sirota, Rik Tjallingii, Sylvia Pinkerneil, Birgit Schroeder, Marlen Albert, Rebecca Kearney, Oliver Heiri, Simona Breu, and Achim Brauer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-835, 2024
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Hypoxia has spread in lake Tiefer-See (NE Germany) due to the increased human activity. The onset of hypoxia indicated by varve preservation is dated to ~1920 at the lake’s depocenter, which respond faster and more severely to the reduction in oxygen level. The spread of hypoxic conditions is a gradual process that lasted for nearly one hundred years, and the chemistry of the sediments shows that the depletion in oxygen in the lake started several decades before the onset of varve preservation.
Marcel Ortler, Achim Brauer, Stefano C. Fabbri, Jean Nicolas Haas, Irka Hajdas, Kerstin Kowarik, Jochem Kueck, Hans Reschreiter, and Michael Strasser
Sci. Dril., 33, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-1-2024, 2024
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The lake drilling project at Lake Hallstatt (Austria) successfully cored 51 m of lake sediments. This was achieved through the novel drilling platform Hipercorig. A core-log seismic correlation was created for the first time of an inner Alpine lake of the Eastern Alps. The sediments cover over 12 000 years before present with 10 (up to 5.1 m thick) instantaneous deposits. Lake Hallstatt is located within an UNESCO World Heritage area which has a rich history of human salt mining.
Anna Beckett, Cecile Blanchet, Alexander Brauser, Rebecca Kearney, Celia Martin-Puertas, Ian Matthews, Konstantin Mittelbach, Adrian Palmer, Arne Ramisch, and Achim Brauer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 595–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-595-2024, 2024
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This paper focuses on volcanic ash (tephra) in European annually laminated (varve) lake records from the period 25 to 8 ka. Tephra enables the synchronisation of these lake records and their proxy reconstructions to absolute timescales. The data incorporate geochemical data from tephra layers across 19 varve lake records. We highlight the potential for synchronising multiple records using tephra layers across continental scales whilst supporting reproducibility through accessible data.
Paula A. Vignoni, Francisco E. Córdoba, Rik Tjallingii, Carla Santamans, Liliana C. Lupo, and Achim Brauer
Geochronology, 5, 333–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-333-2023, 2023
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Radiocarbon dating is a widely used tool to establish chronologies for sediment records. We show that modern aquatic plants in the Laguna del Peinado lake system (Altiplano–Puna Plateau) give overestimated ages due to reservoir effects from the input of old groundwater and volcanic CO2. Our results reveal a spatial variability in the modern reservoir effect within the lake basin, which has implications for radiocarbon-based chronologies in paleoclimate studies in this (and similar) regions.
Markus Czymzik, Rik Tjallingii, Birgit Plessen, Peter Feldens, Martin Theuerkauf, Matthias Moros, Markus J. Schwab, Carla K. M. Nantke, Silvia Pinkerneil, Achim Brauer, and Helge W. Arz
Clim. Past, 19, 233–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-233-2023, 2023
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Productivity increases in Lake Kälksjön sediments during the last 9600 years are likely driven by the progressive millennial-scale winter warming in northwestern Europe, following the increasing Northern Hemisphere winter insolation and decadal to centennial periods of a more positive NAO polarity. Strengthened productivity variability since ∼5450 cal yr BP is hypothesized to reflect a reinforcement of NAO-like atmospheric circulation.
Bernhard Diekmann, Werner Stackebrandt, Roland Weiße, Margot Böse, Udo Rothe, Boris Biskaborn, and Achim Brauer
DEUQUA Spec. Pub., 4, 5–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-5-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-5-2022, 2022
Achim Brauer, Ingo Heinrich, Markus J. Schwab, Birgit Plessen, Brian Brademann, Matthias Köppl, Sylvia Pinkerneil, Daniel Balanzategui, Gerhard Helle, and Theresa Blume
DEUQUA Spec. Pub., 4, 41–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-41-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-41-2022, 2022
Achim Brauer and Markus J. Schwab
DEUQUA Spec. Pub., 4, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-1-2022, 2022
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
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Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 993–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, 2022
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Compound hazards occur when two different natural hazards impact the same time period and spatial area. This article presents a methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards (SI–CH). The methodology is applied to compound precipitation and wind extremes in Great Britain for the period 1979–2019. The study finds that the SI–CH approach can accurately identify single and compound hazard events and represent their spatial and temporal properties.
Yoav Ben Dor, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, Achim Brauer, Markus Julius Schwab, and Efrat Morin
Clim. Past, 17, 2653–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, 2021
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Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
Cécile L. Blanchet, Rik Tjallingii, Anja M. Schleicher, Stefan Schouten, Martin Frank, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 17, 1025–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1025-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1025-2021, 2021
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The Mediterranean Sea turned repeatedly into an oxygen-deprived basin during the geological past, as evidenced by distinct sediment layers called sapropels. We use here records of the last sapropel S1 retrieved in front of the Nile River to explore the relationships between riverine input and seawater oxygenation. We decipher the seasonal cycle of fluvial input and seawater chemistry as well as the decisive influence of primary productivity on deoxygenation at millennial timescales.
Faith E. Taylor, Paolo Tarolli, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2585–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, 2020
Arne Ramisch, Alexander Brauser, Mario Dorn, Cecile Blanchet, Brian Brademann, Matthias Köppl, Jens Mingram, Ina Neugebauer, Norbert Nowaczyk, Florian Ott, Sylvia Pinkerneil, Birgit Plessen, Markus J. Schwab, Rik Tjallingii, and Achim Brauer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2311–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2311-2020, 2020
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Annually laminated lake sediments (varves) record past climate change at seasonal resolution. The VARved sediments DAtabase (VARDA) is created to utilize the full potential of varves for climate reconstructions. VARDA offers free access to a compilation and synchronization of standardized climate-proxy data, with applications ranging from reconstructing regional patterns of past climate change to validating simulations of climate models. VARDA is freely accessible at https://varve.gfz-potsdam.de
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, Hugo Winter, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2091–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020, 2020
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Estimating risks induced by interacting natural hazards remains a challenge for practitioners. An approach to tackle this challenge is to use multivariate statistical models. Here we evaluate the efficacy of six models. The models are compared against synthetic data which are comparable to time series of environmental variables. We find which models are more appropriate to estimate relations between hazards in a range of cases. We highlight the benefits of this approach with two examples.
Florian Mekhaldi, Markus Czymzik, Florian Adolphi, Jesper Sjolte, Svante Björck, Ala Aldahan, Achim Brauer, Celia Martin-Puertas, Göran Possnert, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 16, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, 2020
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Due to chronology uncertainties within paleoclimate archives, it is unclear how climate oscillations from different records relate to one another. By using radionuclides to synchronize Greenland ice cores and a German lake record over 11 000 years, we show that two oscillations observed in these records were not synchronous but terminated and began with the onset of a grand solar minimum. Both this and changes in ocean circulation could have played a role in the two climate oscillations.
Julia Kalanke, Jens Mingram, Stefan Lauterbach, Ryskul Usubaliev, Rik Tjallingii, and Achim Brauer
Geochronology, 2, 133–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-133-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-133-2020, 2020
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Our study presents the first seasonally laminated (varved) sediment record covering almost the entire Holocene in high mountainous arid Central Asia. The established floating varve chronology is confirmed by two terrestrial radiocarbon dates, whereby aquatic radiocarbon dates reveal decreasing reservoir ages up core. Changes in seasonal deposition characteristics are attributed to changes in runoff and precipitation and/or to evaporative summer conditions.
Joel C. Gill, Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, 2020
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This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.
Achim Brauer, Markus J. Schwab, Brian Brademann, Sylvia Pinkerneil, and Martin Theuerkauf
DEUQUA Spec. Pub., 2, 89–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-2-89-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-2-89-2019, 2019
Bernhard Aichner, Florian Ott, Michał Słowiński, Agnieszka M. Noryśkiewicz, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 14, 1607–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, 2018
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Abundances of plant biomarkers are compared with pollen data in a 3000-year climate archive covering the Late Glacial to Holocene transition in northern Poland. Both parameters synchronously show the rapid onset (12680–12600 yr BP) and termination
(11580–11490 yr BP) of the Younger Dryas cold interval in the study area. This demonstrates the suitability of such proxies to record pronounced changes in vegetation cover without significant delay.
Markus Czymzik, Raimund Muscheler, Florian Adolphi, Florian Mekhaldi, Nadine Dräger, Florian Ott, Michał Słowinski, Mirosław Błaszkiewicz, Ala Aldahan, Göran Possnert, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 14, 687–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-687-2018, 2018
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Our results provide a proof of concept for facilitating 10Be in varved lake sediments as a novel synchronization tool required for investigating leads and lags of proxy responses to climate variability. They also point to some limitations of 10Be in these archives mainly connected to in-lake sediment resuspension processes.
Norel Rimbu, Monica Ionita, Markus Czymzik, Achim Brauer, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Multi-decadal to millennial flood frequency variations in the Mid- to Late Holocene in a flood layer record from Lake Ammersee is strongly related to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperatures in the northeastern Europe.
Oliver Rach, Ansgar Kahmen, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 13, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-741-2017, 2017
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Currently, reconstructions of past changes in the hydrological cycle are usually qualitative, which is a major drawback for testing the accuracy of models in predicting future responses. Here we present a proof of concept of a novel approach to deriving quantitative paleohydrological data, i.e. changes in relative humidity, from lacustrine sediment archives, employing a combination of organic geochemical methods and plant physiological modeling.
Bruce D. Malamud, Donald L. Turcotte, and Harold E. Brooks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2823–2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, 2016
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We introduce a novel method for the spatial–temporal cluster analysis of severe tornado touchdowns that are part of tornado outbreaks. Tornado outbreaks, groups of tornadoes occurring close to each other in time and space, constitute a severe hazard that has few quantitative measures. Our new approach, which we illustrate using three USA severe tornado outbreaks and models, differentiates between types of tornado outbreaks and, within outbreaks, identifies clusters in both time and space.
Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016
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Understanding interactions between hazards and other processes can help us to better understand the complex environment in which disasters occur. This enhanced understanding may help us to better manage hazards and reduce the risk of disasters occurring. Interactions (e.g. one hazard triggering another hazard) are noted between (i) natural hazards, such as earthquakes; (ii) human activity, such as groundwater abstraction; and (iii) technological hazards/disasters, such as building collapse.
Markus Czymzik, Raimund Muscheler, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 799–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-799-2016, 2016
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Integrating discharge data of the River Ammer back to 1926 and a 5500-year flood layer record from an annually laminated sediment core of the downstream Ammersee allowed investigating changes in the frequency of major floods in Central Europe on interannual to multi-centennial timescales. Significant correlations between flood frequency variations in both archives and changes in the activity of the Sun suggest a solar influence on the frequency of these hydrometeorological extremes.
Norel Rimbu, Markus Czymzik, Monica Ionita, Gerrit Lohmann, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 377–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, 2016
I. Neugebauer, M. J. Schwab, N. D. Waldmann, R. Tjallingii, U. Frank, E. Hadzhiivanova, R. Naumann, N. Taha, A. Agnon, Y. Enzel, and A. Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-75-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-75-2016, 2016
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Micro-facies changes and elemental variations in deep Dead Sea sediments are used to reconstruct relative lake level changes for the early last glacial period. The results indicate a close link of hydroclimatic variability in the Levant to North Atlantic-Mediterranean climates during the time of the build-up of Northern Hemisphere ice shields. First petrographic analyses of gravels in the deep core question the recent hypothesis of a Dead Sea dry-down at the end of the last interglacial.
C. Martin-Puertas, A. Brauer, S. Wulf, F. Ott, S. Lauterbach, and P. Dulski
Clim. Past, 10, 2099–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2099-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2099-2014, 2014
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
T. Swierczynski, S. Lauterbach, P. Dulski, and A. Brauer
Clim. Past, 9, 1601–1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1601-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1601-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Mathematical applications
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Causal effects of dams and land cover changes on flood changes in mainland China
Can the two-parameter recursive digital filter baseflow separation method really be calibrated by the conductivity mass balance method?
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Technical note: Calculation scripts for ensemble hydrograph separation
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New water fractions and transit time distributions at Plynlimon, Wales, estimated from stable water isotopes in precipitation and streamflow
Does the weighting of climate simulations result in a better quantification of hydrological impacts?
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Technical Note: On the puzzling similarity of two water balance formulas – Turc–Mezentsev vs. Tixeront–Fu
Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study
Quantifying new water fractions and transit time distributions using ensemble hydrograph separation: theory and benchmark tests
Land cover effects on hydrologic services under a precipitation gradient
Technical note: Long-term persistence loss of urban streams as a metric for catchment classification
Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China
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Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam
Can assimilation of crowdsourced data in hydrological modelling improve flood prediction?
Delineation of homogenous regions using hydrological variables predicted by projection pursuit regression
Multivariate hydrological data assimilation of soil moisture and groundwater head
On the propagation of diel signals in river networks using analytic solutions of flow equations
Dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff changes at the catchment scale across China
Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling in the presence of observation bias
Recent changes in climate, hydrology and sediment load in the Wadi Abd, Algeria (1970–2010)
Technical Note: Testing an improved index for analysing storm discharge–concentration hysteresis
Estimating spatially distributed soil water content at small watershed scales based on decomposition of temporal anomaly and time stability analysis
Improving flood forecasting capability of physically based distributed hydrological models by parameter optimization
Time series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of north-central Portugal
Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering: evaluating the effect of ensemble size and localization on filter performance
Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria – an approach based on climate and discharge station data
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Hydrologic landscape classification evaluates streamflow vulnerability to climate change in Oregon, USA
Teleconnection analysis of runoff and soil moisture over the Pearl River basin in southern China
Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling
Streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada
Flood-initiating catchment conditions: a spatio-temporal analysis of large-scale soil moisture patterns in the Elbe River basin
Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation
Hsing-Jui Wang, Ralf Merz, Soohyun Yang, and Stefano Basso
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4369–4384, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4369-2023, 2023
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Accurately assessing heavy-tailed flood behavior with limited data records is challenging and can lead to inaccurate hazard estimates. Our research introduces a new index that uses hydrograph recession to identify heavy-tailed flood behavior, compare severity, and produce reliable results with short data records. This index overcomes the limitations of current metrics, which lack physical meaning and require long records. It thus provides valuable insight into the flood hazard of river basins.
Jun-Yi Lee, Ci-Jian Yang, Tsung-Ren Peng, Tsung-Yu Lee, and Jr-Chuan Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4279–4294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4279-2023, 2023
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Streamflow recession, shaped by landscape and rainfall, is not well understood. This study examines their combined impact using data from 19 mountainous rivers. Longer, gentler hillslopes promote flow and reduce nonlinearity, while larger catchments with more rainfall show increased landscape heterogeneity. In small catchments, the exponent decreases with rainfall, indicating less landscape and runoff variation. Further research is needed to validate these findings across diverse regions.
Jun Liu, Julian Koch, Simon Stisen, Lars Troldborg, and Raphael J. M. Schneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-235, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-235, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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We developed hybrid schemes to enhance national scale streamflow predictions, combining LSTM with a physically based hydrological model (PBM). A comprehensive evaluation of the hybrid setups across all of Denmark indicates that LSTM forced only by climate data and catchment attributes perform well in many regions but face challenges in groundwater-dependent basins. The hybrid schemes supported by PBM possess higher performance in reproducing long-term streamflow behavior and extreme events.
Jared C. Magyar and Malcolm Sambridge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 991–1010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-991-2023, 2023
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Measuring the similarity of distributions of water is a useful tool for model calibration and assessment. We provide a new way of measuring this similarity for streamflow time series. It is derived from the concept of the amount of
workrequired to rearrange one mass distribution into the other. We also use similar mathematical techniques for defining a type of
averagebetween water distributions.
Manuela Irene Brunner and Philippe Naveau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-673-2023, 2023
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Reservoir regulation affects various streamflow characteristics. Still, information on when water is stored in and released from reservoirs is hardly available. We develop a statistical model to reconstruct reservoir operation signals from observed streamflow time series. By applying this approach to 74 catchments in the Alps, we find that reservoir management varies by catchment elevation and that seasonal redistribution from summer to winter is strongest in high-elevation catchments.
Gnanathikkam Emmanuel Amirthanathan, Mohammed Abdul Bari, Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel, Narendra Kumar Tuteja, and Paul Martinus Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 229–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-229-2023, 2023
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We used statistical tests to detect annual and seasonal streamflow trends and step changes across Australia. The Murray–Darling Basin and other rivers in the southern and north-eastern areas showed decreasing trends. Only rivers in the Timor Sea region in northern Australia showed significant increasing trends. Our results assist with infrastructure planning and management of water resources. This study was undertaken by the Bureau of Meteorology with its responsibility under the Water Act 2007.
Shijie Jiang, Emanuele Bevacqua, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6339–6359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022, 2022
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Using a novel explainable machine learning approach, we investigated the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and day length to different peak discharges, thereby uncovering three primary flooding mechanisms widespread in European catchments. The results indicate that flooding mechanisms have changed in numerous catchments over the past 70 years. The study highlights the potential of artificial intelligence in revealing complex changes in extreme events related to climate change.
Jiarong Wang, Xi Chen, Man Gao, Qi Hu, and Jintao Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3901–3920, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3901-2022, 2022
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The accelerated climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau after 1997 has strong consequences for hydrology, geography, and social wellbeing. In hydrology, the change in streamflow as a result of changes in dynamic water storage originating from glacier melt and permafrost thawing in a warming climate directly affects the available water resources for societies of some of the most populated nations in the world.
Esther Xu Fei and Ciaran Joseph Harman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1977–1991, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1977-2022, 2022
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Water in streams is a mixture of water from many sources. It is sometimes possible to identify the chemical fingerprint of each source and track the time-varying contribution of that source to the total flow rate. But what if you do not know the chemical fingerprint of each source? Can you simultaneously identify the sources (called end-members), and separate the water into contributions from each, using only samples of water from the stream? Here we suggest a method for doing just that.
Guofeng Zhu, Zhigang Sun, Yuanxiao Xu, Yuwei Liu, Zhuanxia Zhang, Liyuan Sang, and Lei Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-75, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We analyzed the stable isotopic composition of surface water and estimated its evaporative loss in the Shiyang River Basin. The characteristics of stable isotopes in surface water show a gradual enrichment from mountainous areas to deserts, and the evaporation loss of surface water also shows a gradually increasing trend from upstream to downstream. The study of evaporative losses in the river-lake continuum contributes to the sustainable use of water resources.
Paul Royer-Gaspard, Vazken Andréassian, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5703–5716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, 2021
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Most evaluation studies based on the differential split-sample test (DSST) endorse the consensus that rainfall–runoff models lack climatic robustness. In this technical note, we propose a new performance metric to evaluate model robustness without applying the DSST and which can be used with a single hydrological model calibration. Our work makes it possible to evaluate the temporal transferability of any hydrological model, including uncalibrated models, at a very low computational cost.
Wencong Yang, Hanbo Yang, Dawen Yang, and Aizhong Hou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2705–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2705-2021, 2021
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This study quantified the causal effects of land cover changes and dams on the changes in annual maximum discharges (Q) in 757 catchments of China using panel regressions. We found that a 1 % point increase in urban areas causes a 3.9 % increase in Q, and a 1 unit increase in reservoir index causes a 21.4 % decrease in Q for catchments with no dam before. This study takes the first step to explain the human-caused flood changes on a national scale in China.
Weifei Yang, Changlai Xiao, Zhihao Zhang, and Xiujuan Liang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1747–1760, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1747-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1747-2021, 2021
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This study analyzed the effectiveness of the conductivity mass balance (CMB) method for correcting the Eckhardt method. The results showed that the approach of calibrating the Eckhardt method against the CMB method provides a
falsecalibration of total baseflow by offsetting the inherent biases in the baseflow sequences generated by the two methods. The reason for this phenomenon is the baseflow series generated by the two methods containing different transient water sources.
Juliane Mai, James R. Craig, and Bryan A. Tolson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5835–5858, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5835-2020, 2020
James W. Kirchner and Julia L. A. Knapp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5539–5558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5539-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5539-2020, 2020
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Ensemble hydrograph separation is a powerful new tool for measuring the age distribution of streamwater. However, the calculations are complex and may be difficult for researchers to implement on their own. Here we present scripts that perform these calculations in either MATLAB or R so that researchers do not need to write their own codes. We explain how these scripts work and how to use them. We demonstrate several potential applications using a synthetic catchment data set.
Antoine Allam, Roger Moussa, Wajdi Najem, and Claude Bocquillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4503–4521, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4503-2020, 2020
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With serious concerns about global change rising in the Mediterranean, we established a new climatic classification to follow hydrological and ecohydrological activities. The classification coincided with a geographical distribution ranging from the most seasonal and driest class in the south to the least seasonal and most humid in the north. RCM scenarios showed that northern classes evolve to southern ones with shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelt which might affect hydrologic regimes.
Mingguo Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2365–2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2365-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2365-2020, 2020
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This paper developed a mathematically precise method to partition climate and catchment effects on streamflow. The method reveals that both the change magnitude and pathway (timing of change), not the magnitude alone, dictate the partition unless for a linear system. The method has wide relevance. For example, it suggests that the global warming effect of carbon emission is path dependent, and an optimal pathway would facilitate a higher global budget of carbon emission.
José Manuel Tunqui Neira, Vazken Andréassian, Gaëlle Tallec, and Jean-Marie Mouchel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1823–1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1823-2020, 2020
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This paper deals with the mathematical representation of concentration–discharge relationships. We propose a two-sided affine power scaling relationship (2S-APS) as an alternative to the classic one-sided power scaling relationship (commonly known as
power law). We also discuss the identification of the parameters of the proposed relationship, using an appropriate numerical criterion, based on high-frequency chemical time series of the Orgeval-ORACLE observatory.
Long Yang, Lachun Wang, Xiang Li, and Jie Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5133–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5133-2019, 2019
Julia L. A. Knapp, Colin Neal, Alessandro Schlumpf, Margaret Neal, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4367–4388, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4367-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4367-2019, 2019
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We describe, present, and make publicly available two extensive data sets of stable water isotopes in streamwater and precipitation at Plynlimon, Wales, consisting of measurements at 7-hourly intervals for 17 months and at weekly intervals for 4.25 years. We use these data to calculate new water fractions and transit time distributions for different discharge rates and seasons, thus quantifying the contribution of recent precipitation to streamflow under different conditions.
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, Hua Chen, Shenglian Guo, Ping Xie, and Xiangquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4033–4050, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4033-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4033-2019, 2019
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When using large ensembles of global climate models in hydrological impact studies, there are pragmatic questions on whether it is necessary to weight climate models and how to weight them. We use eight methods to weight climate models straightforwardly, based on their performances in hydrological simulations, and investigate the influences of the assigned weights. This study concludes that using bias correction and equal weighting is likely viable and sufficient for hydrological impact studies.
Nathalie Folton, Eric Martin, Patrick Arnaud, Pierre L'Hermite, and Mathieu Tolsa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2699–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2699-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2699-2019, 2019
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The long-term study of precipitation, flows, flood or drought mechanisms, in the Réal Collobrier research Watershed, located in South-East France, in the Mediterranean forest, improves knowledge of the water cycle and is unique tool for understanding of how catchments function. This study shows a small decrease in rainfall and a marked tendency towards a decrease in the water resources of the catchment in response to climate trends, with a consistent increase in drought severity and duration.
Vazken Andréassian and Tewfik Sari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2339–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2339-2019, 2019
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In this Technical Note, we present two water balance formulas: the Turc–Mezentsev and Tixeront–Fu formulas. These formulas have a puzzling numerical similarity, which we discuss in detail and try to interpret mathematically and hydrologically.
Jan De Niel and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-871-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-871-2019, 2019
James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 303–349, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-303-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-303-2019, 2019
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How long does it take for raindrops to become streamflow? Here I propose a new approach to this old problem. I show how we can use time series of isotope data to measure the average fraction of same-day rainfall appearing in streamflow, even if this fraction varies greatly from rainstorm to rainstorm. I show that we can quantify how this fraction changes from small rainstorms to big ones, and from high flows to low flows, and how it changes with the lag time between rainfall and streamflow.
Ane Zabaleta, Eneko Garmendia, Petr Mariel, Ibon Tamayo, and Iñaki Antigüedad
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5227–5241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5227-2018, 2018
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This study establishes relationships between land cover and river discharge. Using discharge data from 20 catchments of the Bay of Biscay findings showed the influence of land cover on discharge changes with the amount of precipitation, with lower annual water resources associated with the greater presence of forests. Results obtained illustrate the relevance of land planning to the management of water resources and the opportunity to consider it in future climate-change adaptation strategies.
Dusan Jovanovic, Tijana Jovanovic, Alfonso Mejía, Jon Hathaway, and Edoardo Daly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3551–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3551-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3551-2018, 2018
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A relationship between the Hurst (H) exponent (a long-term correlation coefficient) within a flow time series and various catchment characteristics for a number of catchments in the USA and Australia was investigated. A negative relationship with imperviousness was identified, which allowed for an efficient catchment classification, thus making the H exponent a useful metric to quantitatively assess the impact of catchment imperviousness on streamflow regime.
Chuanhao Wu, Bill X. Hu, Guoru Huang, Peng Wang, and Kai Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1971–1991, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1971-2018, 2018
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China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal–spatial patterns of water resources. In this paper, the Budyko-based elasticity method was used to investigate the responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China at both grid and catchment scales. The results help to better understand the hydrological effects of climate change and adapt to a changing environment.
Samuel Saxe, Terri S. Hogue, and Lauren Hay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1221–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1221-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1221-2018, 2018
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We investigate the impact of wildfire on watershed flow regimes, examining responses across the western United States. On a national scale, our results confirm the work of prior studies: that low, high, and peak flows typically increase following a wildfire. Regionally, results are more variable and sometimes contradictory. Our results may be significant in justifying the calibration of watershed models and in contributing to the overall observational analysis of post-fire streamflow response.
Steve J. Birkinshaw, Selma B. Guerreiro, Alex Nicholson, Qiuhua Liang, Paul Quinn, Lili Zhang, Bin He, Junxian Yin, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1911–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017, 2017
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The Yangtze River basin in China is home to more than 400 million people and susceptible to major floods. We used projections of future precipitation and temperature from 35 of the most recent global climate models and applied this to a hydrological model of the Yangtze. Changes in the annual discharge varied between a 29.8 % decrease and a 16.0 % increase. The main reason for the difference between the models was the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and and west into the basin.
Maurizio Mazzoleni, Martin Verlaan, Leonardo Alfonso, Martina Monego, Daniele Norbiato, Miche Ferri, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 839–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-839-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-839-2017, 2017
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This study assesses the potential use of crowdsourced data in hydrological modeling, which are characterized by irregular availability and variable accuracy. We show that even data with these characteristics can improve flood prediction if properly integrated into hydrological models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens can play an active role in capturing information, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.
Martin Durocher, Fateh Chebana, and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4717–4729, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4717-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4717-2016, 2016
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For regional flood frequency, it is challenging to identify regions with similar hydrological properties. Therefore, previous works have mainly proposed to use regions with similar physiographical properties. This research proposes instead to nonlinearly predict the desired hydrological properties before using them for delineation. The presented method is applied to a case study in Québec, Canada, and leads to hydrologically relevant regions, while enhancing predictions made inside them.
Donghua Zhang, Henrik Madsen, Marc E. Ridler, Jacob Kidmose, Karsten H. Jensen, and Jens C. Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4341–4357, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4341-2016, 2016
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We present a method to assimilate observed groundwater head and soil moisture profiles into an integrated hydrological model. The study uses the ensemble transform Kalman filter method and the MIKE SHE hydrological model code. The proposed method is shown to be more robust and provide better results for two cases in Denmark, and is also validated using real data. The hydrological model with assimilation overall improved performance compared to the model without assimilation.
Morgan Fonley, Ricardo Mantilla, Scott J. Small, and Rodica Curtu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2899–2912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2899-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2899-2016, 2016
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We design and implement a theoretical experiment to show that, under low-flow conditions, observed streamflow discrepancies between early and late summer can be attributed to different flow velocities in the river network. By developing an analytic solution to represent flow along a given river network, we emphasize the dependence of streamflow amplitude and time delay on the geomorphology of the network. We also simulate using a realistic river network to highlight the effects of scale.
Zhongwei Huang, Hanbo Yang, and Dawen Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2573–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2573-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2573-2016, 2016
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The hydrologic processes have been influenced by different climatic factors. However, the dominant climatic factor driving annual runoff change is still unknown in many catchments in China. By using the climate elasticity method proposed by Yang and Yang (2011), the elasticity of runoff to climatic factors was estimated, and the dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff change were detected at catchment scale over China.
Jørn Rasmussen, Henrik Madsen, Karsten Høgh Jensen, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2103–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2103-2016, 2016
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In the paper, observations are assimilated into a hydrological model in order to improve the model performance. Two methods for detecting and correcting systematic errors (bias) in groundwater head observations are used leading to improved results compared to standard assimilation methods which ignores any bias. This is demonstrated using both synthetic (user generated) observations and real-world observations.
Mohammed Achite and Sylvain Ouillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1355–1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1355-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1355-2016, 2016
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Changes of T, P, Q and sediment fluxes in a semi-arid basin little affected by human activities are analyzed from 40 years of measurements. T increased, P decreased, an earlier onset of first summer rains occurred. The flow regime shifted from perennial to intermittent. Sediment flux almost doubled every decade. The sediment regime shifted from two equivalent seasons of sediment delivery to a single major season regime. The C–Q rating curve ability declined due to enhanced hysteresis effects.
C. E. M. Lloyd, J. E. Freer, P. J. Johnes, and A. L. Collins
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 625–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-625-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-625-2016, 2016
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This paper examines the current methodologies for quantifying storm behaviour through hysteresis analysis, and explores a new method. Each method is systematically tested and the impact on the results is examined. Recommendations are made regarding the most effective method of calculating a hysteresis index. This new method allows storm hysteresis behaviour to be directly compared between storms, parameters, and catchments, meaning it has wide application potential in water quality research.
W. Hu and B. C. Si
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 571–587, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-571-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-571-2016, 2016
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Spatiotemporal SWC was decomposed into into three terms (spatial forcing, temporal forcing, and interactions between spatial and temporal forcing) for near surface and root zone; Empirical orthogonal function indicated that underlying patterns exist in the interaction term at small watershed scales; Estimation of spatially distributed SWC benefits from decomposition of the interaction term; The suggested decomposition of SWC with time stability analysis has potential in SWC downscaling.
Y. Chen, J. Li, and H. Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 375–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-375-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-375-2016, 2016
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Parameter optimization is necessary to improve the flood forecasting capability of physically based distributed hydrological model. A method for parameter optimization with particle swam optimization (PSO) algorithm has been proposed for physically based distributed hydrological model in catchment flood forecasting and validated in southern China. It has found that the appropriate particle number and maximum evolution number of PSO algorithm are 20 and 30 respectively.
D. Hawtree, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, R. Jacinto, J. Santos, M. E. Rial-Rivas, A.-K. Boulet, F. Tavares-Wahren, and K.-H. Feger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3033–3045, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3033-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3033-2015, 2015
J. Rasmussen, H. Madsen, K. H. Jensen, and J. C. Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2999–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2999-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2999-2015, 2015
C. Kormann, T. Francke, M. Renner, and A. Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1225–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015, 2015
S. Gharari, M. Shafiei, M. Hrachowitz, R. Kumar, F. Fenicia, H. V. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4861–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, 2014
S. G. Leibowitz, R. L. Comeleo, P. J. Wigington Jr., C. P. Weaver, P. E. Morefield, E. A. Sproles, and J. L. Ebersole
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3367–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3367-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3367-2014, 2014
J. Niu, J. Chen, and B. Sivakumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1475–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1475-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1475-2014, 2014
S. Galelli and A. Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2669–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2669-2013, 2013
K. Rasouli, M. A. Hernández-Henríquez, and S. J. Déry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1681–1691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1681-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1681-2013, 2013
M. Nied, Y. Hundecha, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1401–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, 2013
B. Gräler, M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1281–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1281-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1281-2013, 2013
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Short summary
Here we present a unique 9.5 m palaeo-lacustrine record of 771 palaeofloods which occurred over a period of 10 000 years in the Piànico–Sèllere basin (southern Alps) during an interglacial period in the Pleistocene (sometime between 400 000 and 800 000 years ago). We analyse the palaeoflood series correlation, clustering, and cyclicity properties, finding a long-range cyclicity with a period of about 2030 years superimposed onto a fractional noise.
Here we present a unique 9.5 m palaeo-lacustrine record of 771 palaeofloods which occurred over...
