Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-345-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-345-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jan 2017
Research article |
| 20 Jan 2017
Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Technical University of Denmark, Global Decision Support Initiative,
Lyngby, Denmark
Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental
Engineering, Lyngby, Denmark
Stylianos Georgiadis
Technical University of Denmark, Global Decision Support Initiative,
Lyngby, Denmark
Technical University of Denmark, Department of Applied Mathematics and
Computer Science, Lyngby, Denmark
Ida Bülow Gregersen
Ramboll Danmark A/S, Department of Climate Adaptation and Green
Infrastructure, Copenhagen, Denmark
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Technical University of Denmark, Global Decision Support Initiative,
Lyngby, Denmark
Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental
Engineering, Lyngby, Denmark
Related authors
Emma Dybro Thomassen, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Marc Scheibel, Thomas Einfalt, and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-397, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-397, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines characteristics of extreme events of a 13 year long record of 1 × 1 km spatial resolution and durations ranging from 15-minute to daily durations by means of simple data driven methods. We found that these analyses enabled us to distinguish and characterise types of extreme events useful for urban hydrology applications. The result is useful e.g. for selecting events of particular interest when assessing performance of e.g. urban drainage systems.
Emma Dybro Thomassen, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Marc Scheibel, Thomas Einfalt, and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-184, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This article takes the first steps in describing rainfall with spatio-temporal variations. A detailed description of rainfall will provide an improved planning tool for protecting cities against pluvial flooding. The article uses high resolution radar data from the catchment of the river Wupper, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The spatio-temporal properties of extreme rain events was described with 16 variables. Three statistical methods were applied and four rainfall types were identified.
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and Peter Steen Mikkelsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1387–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Fine-resolution spatio-temporal precipitation data are important as input to urban hydrological models to assess performance issues under all possible conditions. In the present study synthetic data at very fine spatial and temporal resolution are generated using a stochastic model. Data are generated for both present and future climate conditions. The results show that it is possible to generate spatially distributed data at resolutions relevant for urban hydrology.
M. A. Sunyer, H. J. D. Sørup, O. B. Christensen, H. Madsen, D. Rosbjerg, P. S. Mikkelsen, and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4323–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, 2013
Emma Dybro Thomassen, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Marc Scheibel, Thomas Einfalt, and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-397, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-397, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines characteristics of extreme events of a 13 year long record of 1 × 1 km spatial resolution and durations ranging from 15-minute to daily durations by means of simple data driven methods. We found that these analyses enabled us to distinguish and characterise types of extreme events useful for urban hydrology applications. The result is useful e.g. for selecting events of particular interest when assessing performance of e.g. urban drainage systems.
Roland Löwe and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 981–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-981-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-981-2020, 2020
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To consider potential future urban developments in pluvial flood risk assessment, we develop empirical relationships for imperviousness and flood damage based on an analysis of existing urban characteristics. Results suggest that (1) data resolutions must be carefully selected, (2) there are lower limits for the spatial scale at which predictions can be generated, and (3) depth-dependent damage estimates are challenging to reproduce empirically and can be vulnerable to simulation artifacts.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
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One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Emma Dybro Thomassen, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Marc Scheibel, Thomas Einfalt, and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-184, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This article takes the first steps in describing rainfall with spatio-temporal variations. A detailed description of rainfall will provide an improved planning tool for protecting cities against pluvial flooding. The article uses high resolution radar data from the catchment of the river Wupper, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The spatio-temporal properties of extreme rain events was described with 16 variables. Three statistical methods were applied and four rainfall types were identified.
Per Skougaard Kaspersen, Nanna Høegh Ravn, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Henrik Madsen, and Martin Drews
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4131–4147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4131-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4131-2017, 2017
Søren Thorndahl, Thomas Einfalt, Patrick Willems, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Michael R. Rasmussen, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1359–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1359-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews how weather radar data can be used in urban hydrological applications. It focuses on three areas of research: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Moreover, the paper provides examples of urban hydrological applications which can benefit from radar rainfall data in comparison to tradition rain gauge measurements of rainfall.
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and Peter Steen Mikkelsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1387–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Fine-resolution spatio-temporal precipitation data are important as input to urban hydrological models to assess performance issues under all possible conditions. In the present study synthetic data at very fine spatial and temporal resolution are generated using a stochastic model. Data are generated for both present and future climate conditions. The results show that it is possible to generate spatially distributed data at resolutions relevant for urban hydrology.
P. Skougaard Kaspersen, N. Høegh Ravn, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, H. Madsen, and M. Drews
Proc. IAHS, 370, 21–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-21-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-21-2015, 2015
Short summary
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A combined remote sensing and hydrological modelling approach is developed to examine the influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities towards flooding. Results show that the past 30 years of urban development has increased the exposure to pluvial flooding by 6-26%. Corresponding estimates for a medium and high climate change scenario (2071-2100) are 40% and 100%, indicating that urban land cover changes are central for the exposure of cities to flooding.
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
M. A. Sunyer, H. J. D. Sørup, O. B. Christensen, H. Madsen, D. Rosbjerg, P. S. Mikkelsen, and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4323–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Urban Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2035–2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2035-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2035-2023, 2023
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To provide a possibility for early warning and forecasting of ponding in the urban drainage system, an optimized long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model is proposed in this paper. It has a remarkable improvement compared to the models based on LSTM and convolutional neural network (CNN) structures. The performance of the corrected model is reliable if the number of monitoring sites is over one per hectare. Increasing the number of monitoring points further has little impact on the performance.
Qianqian Zhou, Shuai Teng, Zuxiang Situ, Xiaoting Liao, Junman Feng, Gongfa Chen, Jianliang Zhang, and Zonglei Lu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1791–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1791-2023, 2023
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The study explores the effect of Anthropocene geology and the computational grid size on the simulation of shallow urban groundwater. Many cities are facing challenges with high groundwater levels close to the surface, yet urban planning and development seldom consider its impact on the groundwater resource. This study illustrates that the urban subsurface infrastructure significantly affects the groundwater flow paths and the residence time of shallow urban groundwater.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5685–5695, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5685-2022, 2022
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3941–3964, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3941-2022, 2022
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2855–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2855-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2855-2022, 2022
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Elhadi Mohsen Hassan Abdalla, Vincent Pons, Virginia Stovin, Simon De-Ville, Elizabeth Fassman-Beck, Knut Alfredsen, and Tone Merete Muthanna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5917–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5917-2021, 2021
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Yang Yang and Ting Fong May Chui
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5839–5858, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5839-2021, 2021
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This study uses explainable machine learning methods to model and interpret the statistical correlations between rainfall and the discharge of urban catchments with sustainable urban drainage systems. The resulting models have good prediction accuracies. However, the right predictions may be made for the wrong reasons as the model cannot provide physically plausible explanations as to why a prediction is made.
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The role of rainfall space–time structure in flood response is an important research issue in urban hydrology. This study contributes to this understanding in small urban watersheds. Combining stochastically based rainfall scenarios with a hydrological model, the results show the complexities of flood response for various return periods, implying the common assumptions of spatially uniform rainfall in urban flood frequency are problematic, even for relatively small basin scales.
Yangzi Qiu, Igor da Silva Rocha Paz, Feihu Chen, Pierre-Antoine Versini, Daniel Schertzer, and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3137–3162, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3137-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3137-2021, 2021
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Our original research objective is to investigate the uncertainties of the hydrological responses of nature-based solutions (NBSs) that result from the multiscale space variability in both the rainfall and the NBS distribution. Results show that the intersection effects of spatial variability in rainfall and the spatial arrangement of NBS can generate uncertainties of peak flow and total runoff volume estimations in NBS scenarios.
Kaihua Guo, Mingfu Guan, and Dapeng Yu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2843–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2843-2021, 2021
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Everett Snieder, Karen Abogadil, and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2543–2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2543-2021, 2021
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Flow distributions are highly skewed, resulting in low prediction accuracy of high flows when using artificial neural networks for flood forecasting. We investigate the use of resampling and ensemble techniques to address the problem of skewed datasets to improve high flow prediction. The methods are implemented both independently and in combined, hybrid techniques. This research presents the first analysis of the effects of combining these methods on high flow prediction accuracy.
Ico Broekhuizen, Günther Leonhardt, Jiri Marsalek, and Maria Viklander
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-869-2020, 2020
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Urban drainage models are usually calibrated using a few events so that they accurately represent a real-world site. This paper compares 14 single- and two-stage strategies for selecting these events and found significant variation between them in terms of model performance and the obtained values of model parameters. Calibrating parameters for green and impermeable areas in two separate stages improved model performance in the validation period while making calibration easier and faster.
Xuehong Zhu, Qiang Dai, Dawei Han, Lu Zhuo, Shaonan Zhu, and Shuliang Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3353–3372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3353-2019, 2019
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Urban flooding exposure is generally investigated with the assumption of stationary disasters and disaster-hit bodies during an event, and thus it cannot satisfy the increasingly elaborate modeling and management of urban floods. In this study, a comprehensive method was proposed to simulate dynamic exposure to urban flooding considering human mobility. Several scenarios, including diverse flooding types and various responses of residents to flooding, were considered.
Joong Gwang Lee, Christopher T. Nietch, and Srinivas Panguluri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2615–2635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2615-2018, 2018
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This paper demonstrates an approach to spatial discretization for analyzing green infrastructure (GI) using SWMM. Besides DCIA, pervious buffers should be identified for GI modeling. Runoff contributions from different spatial components and flow pathways would impact GI performance. The presented approach can reduce the number of calibration parameters and apply scale–independently to a watershed scale. Hydrograph separation can add insights for developing GI scenarios.
Elena Cristiano, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Santiago Gaitan, Susana Ochoa Rodriguez, and Nick van de Giesen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2425–2447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2425-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2425-2018, 2018
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In this work we investigate the influence rainfall and catchment scales have on hydrological response. This problem is quite relevant in urban areas, where the response is fast due to the high degree of imperviousness. We presented a new approach to classify rainfall variability in space and time and use this classification to investigate rainfall aggregation effects on urban hydrological response. This classification allows the spatial extension of the main core of the storm to be identified.
Suresh Hettiarachchi, Conrad Wasko, and Ashish Sharma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2041–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2041-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2041-2018, 2018
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The study examines the impact of higher temperatures expected in a future climate on how rainfall varies with time during severe storm events. The results show that these impacts increase future flood risk in urban environments and that current design guidelines need to be adjusted so that effective adaptation measures can be implemented.
Stephanie Clark, Ashish Sharma, and Scott A. Sisson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1793–1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1793-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1793-2018, 2018
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This study investigates global patterns relating urban river flood impacts to socioeconomic development and changing hydrologic conditions, and comparisons are provided between 98 individual cities. This paper condenses and communicates large amounts of information to accelerate the understanding of relationships between local urban conditions and global processes, and to potentially motivate knowledge transfer between decision-makers facing similar circumstances.
Abdellah Ichiba, Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Philippe Bompard, and Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 331–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-331-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-331-2018, 2018
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This paper proposes a two-step investigation to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within GIS data inputted in urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work was carried out to confirm effects on model performances. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results allow the understanding of scale challenges in hydrology modelling.
Per Skougaard Kaspersen, Nanna Høegh Ravn, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Henrik Madsen, and Martin Drews
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4131–4147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4131-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4131-2017, 2017
Elena Cristiano, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, and Nick van de Giesen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3859–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3859-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3859-2017, 2017
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In the last decades, new instruments were developed to measure rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars are used, for example, to measure how rainfall varies in space and time. At the same time, new models were proposed to reproduce and predict hydrological response, in order to prevent flooding in urban areas. This paper presents a review of our current knowledge of rainfall and hydrological processes in urban areas, focusing on their variability in time and space.
Chiara Arrighi, Hocine Oumeraci, and Fabio Castelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 515–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-515-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-515-2017, 2017
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In developed countries, the majority of fatalities during floods occurs as a consequence of inappropriate high-risk behaviour such as walking or driving in floodwaters. This work addresses pedestrians' instability in floodwaters. It analyses both the contribution of flood and human physical characteristics in the loss of stability highlighting the key role of subject height (submergence) and flow regime. The method consists of a re-analysis of experiments and numerical modelling.
Tsun-Hua Yang, Gong-Do Hwang, Chin-Cheng Tsai, and Jui-Yi Ho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4731–4745, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016, 2016
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Taiwan continues to suffer from floods. This study proposes the integration of rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to provide probabilistic urban inundation forecasts. Utilization of ensemble precipitation forecasts can extend forecast lead times to 72 h, preceding peak flows and allowing response agencies to take necessary preparatory measures. This study also develops a hybrid of real-time observation and rainfall forecasts to improve the first 24 h inundation forecasts.
Christopher A. Sanchez, Benjamin L. Ruddell, Roy Schiesser, and Venkatesh Merwade
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1289–1299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1289-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1289-2016, 2016
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The use of authentic learning activities is especially important for place-based geosciences like hydrology, where professional breadth and technical depth are critical for practicing hydrologists. The current study found that integrating computerized learning content into the learning experience, using only a simple spreadsheet tool and readily available hydrological data, can effectively bring the "real world" into the classroom and provide an enriching educational experience.
G. Bruni, R. Reinoso, N. C. van de Giesen, F. H. L. R. Clemens, and J. A. E. ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 691–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-691-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-691-2015, 2015
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 679–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-679-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-679-2013, 2013
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 379–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-379-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-379-2013, 2013
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4531–4542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4531-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4531-2012, 2012
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3115–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3115-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3115-2011, 2011
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 185–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-185-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-185-2011, 2011
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2057-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2057-2010, 2010
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Short summary
In this study we propose a methodology changing present-day precipitation time series to reflect future changed climate. Present-day time series have a much finer resolution than what is provided by climate models and thus have a much broader application range. The proposed methodology is able to replicate most expectations of climate change precipitation. These time series can be used to run fine-scale hydrological and hydraulic models and thereby assess the influence of climate change on them.
In this study we propose a methodology changing present-day precipitation time series to reflect...
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