Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4503-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4503-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Nov 2016
Research article |
| 10 Nov 2016
Climate elasticity of streamflow revisited – an elasticity index based on long-term hydrometeorological records
Vazken Andréassian
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Irstea, Hydrosystems and Bioprocesses Research Unit (HBAN),
Antony, France
Laurent Coron
Irstea, Hydrosystems and Bioprocesses Research Unit (HBAN),
Antony, France
now at: EDF-DTG, Toulouse, France
Julien Lerat
Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra, Australia
Nicolas Le Moine
Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS, EPHE, UMR 7619
Metis, Paris, France
Related authors
Olivier Delaigue, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Pierre Brigode, Benoît Génot, Charles Perrin, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Bruno Janet, Nans Addor, and Vazken Andréassian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-415, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-415, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset covers 654 rivers all flowing in France. The provided time series and catchment attributes will be of interest to those modelers wishing to analyse hydrological behavior, perform model assessments.
Thibault Hallouin, François Bourgin, Charles Perrin, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Vazken Andréassian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4561–4578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evaluation of the quality of hydrological model outputs against streamflow observations is widespread in the hydrological literature. In order to improve on the reproducibility of published studies, a new evaluation tool dedicated to hydrological applications is presented. It is open source and usable in a variety of programming languages to make it as accessible as possible to the community. Thus, authors and readers alike can use the same tool to produce and reproduce the results.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims at investigating how hydrological models can be transferred to a period in which climatic conditions are different to the ones of the period in which it was set up. The RAT method, built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers, was applied to 3 different hydrological models on 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are detected for a significant number of catchments for the 3 models even though these catchments differ for each model.
Ralph Bathelemy, Pierre Brigode, Vazken Andréassian, Charles Perrin, Vincent Moron, Cédric Gaucherel, Emmanuel Tric, and Dominique Boisson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2073–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2073-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2073-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this work is to provide the first hydroclimatic database for Haiti, a Caribbean country particularly vulnerable to meteorological and hydrological hazards. The resulting database, named Simbi, provides hydroclimatic time series for around 150 stations and 24 catchment areas.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.
Alban de Lavenne, Vazken Andréassian, Louise Crochemore, Göran Lindström, and Berit Arheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2715–2732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2715-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A watershed remembers the past to some extent, and this memory influences its behavior. This memory is defined by the ability to store past rainfall for several years. By releasing this water into the river or the atmosphere, it tends to forget. We describe how this memory fades over time in France and Sweden. A few watersheds show a multi-year memory. It increases with the influence of groundwater or dry conditions. After 3 or 4 years, they behave independently of the past.
Antoine Pelletier and Vazken Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2733–2758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2733-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large part of the water cycle takes place underground. In many places, the soil stores water during the wet periods and can release it all year long, which is particularly visible when the river level is low. Modelling tools that are used to simulate and forecast the behaviour of the river struggle to represent this. We improved an existing model to take underground water into account using measurements of the soil water content. Results allow us make recommendations for model users.
Paul Royer-Gaspard, Vazken Andréassian, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5703–5716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Most evaluation studies based on the differential split-sample test (DSST) endorse the consensus that rainfall–runoff models lack climatic robustness. In this technical note, we propose a new performance metric to evaluate model robustness without applying the DSST and which can be used with a single hydrological model calibration. Our work makes it possible to evaluate the temporal transferability of any hydrological model, including uncalibrated models, at a very low computational cost.
Pierre Nicolle, Vazken Andréassian, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Charles Perrin, Guillaume Thirel, Laurent Coron, and Léonard Santos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5013–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this note, a new method (RAT) is proposed to assess the robustness of hydrological models. The RAT method is particularly interesting because it does not require multiple calibrations (it is therefore applicable to uncalibrated models), and it can be used to determine whether a hydrological model may be safely used for climate change impact studies. Success at the robustness assessment test is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition of model robustness.
José Manuel Tunqui Neira, Vazken Andréassian, Gaëlle Tallec, and Jean-Marie Mouchel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1823–1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1823-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with the mathematical representation of concentration–discharge relationships. We propose a two-sided affine power scaling relationship (2S-APS) as an alternative to the classic one-sided power scaling relationship (commonly known as
power law). We also discuss the identification of the parameters of the proposed relationship, using an appropriate numerical criterion, based on high-frequency chemical time series of the Orgeval-ORACLE observatory.
Antoine Pelletier and Vazken Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1171–1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1171-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1171-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There are many ways for water to join a river after a rainfall event, but they can be split into two categories: the quick ones that remain in the surface and the slow ones that use other trajectories. Thus, measured streamflow of a river can be split into two components: quickflow and baseflow. We present a new method to perform this separation, using only streamflow and rainfall data, which are generally broadly available. It is then used as an analysis tool of river dynamics over France.
José Manuel Tunqui Neira, Vazken Andréassian, Gaëlle Tallec, and Jean-Marie Mouchel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-325, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This Technical Note deals with the mathematical representation of concentration-discharge relationships and with the identification of its parameters. We propose a two-sided power transformation alternative to the classical log-log transformation, and a multicriterion identification procedure allowing determining parameters that are efficient, both from the concentration and the load points of view.
Vazken Andréassian and Tewfik Sari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2339–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2339-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this Technical Note, we present two water balance formulas: the Turc–Mezentsev and Tixeront–Fu formulas. These formulas have a puzzling numerical similarity, which we discuss in detail and try to interpret mathematically and hydrologically.
Cédric Rebolho, Vazken Andréassian, and Nicolas Le Moine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5967–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5967-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Inundation models are useful for hazard management and prevention. They are traditionally based on hydraulic partial differential equations (with satisfying results but large data and computational requirements). This study presents a simplified approach combining reach-scale geometric properties with steady uniform flow equations. The model shows promising results overall, although difficulties persist in the most complex urbanised reaches.
Alban de Lavenne, Guillaume Thirel, Vazken Andréassian, Charles Perrin, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Proc. IAHS, 373, 87–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-87-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-87-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Developing modelling tools that help to understand the spatial distribution of water resources is a key issue for better management. Ideally, hydrological models which discretise catchment space into sub-catchments should offer better streamflow simulations than lumped models, along with spatially-relevant water resources management solutions. However we demonstrate that those model raise other issues related to the calibration strategy and to the identifiability of the parameters.
F. Bourgin, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, and L. Oudin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, 2015
D. Defrance, P. Javelle, D. Organde, S. Ecrepont, V. Andréassian, and P. Arnaud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-4365-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-4365-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Olivier Delaigue, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Pierre Brigode, Benoît Génot, Charles Perrin, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Bruno Janet, Nans Addor, and Vazken Andréassian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-415, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-415, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset covers 654 rivers all flowing in France. The provided time series and catchment attributes will be of interest to those modelers wishing to analyse hydrological behavior, perform model assessments.
Thibault Hallouin, François Bourgin, Charles Perrin, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Vazken Andréassian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4561–4578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evaluation of the quality of hydrological model outputs against streamflow observations is widespread in the hydrological literature. In order to improve on the reproducibility of published studies, a new evaluation tool dedicated to hydrological applications is presented. It is open source and usable in a variety of programming languages to make it as accessible as possible to the community. Thus, authors and readers alike can use the same tool to produce and reproduce the results.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims at investigating how hydrological models can be transferred to a period in which climatic conditions are different to the ones of the period in which it was set up. The RAT method, built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers, was applied to 3 different hydrological models on 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are detected for a significant number of catchments for the 3 models even though these catchments differ for each model.
Ralph Bathelemy, Pierre Brigode, Vazken Andréassian, Charles Perrin, Vincent Moron, Cédric Gaucherel, Emmanuel Tric, and Dominique Boisson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2073–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2073-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2073-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this work is to provide the first hydroclimatic database for Haiti, a Caribbean country particularly vulnerable to meteorological and hydrological hazards. The resulting database, named Simbi, provides hydroclimatic time series for around 150 stations and 24 catchment areas.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.
Olivier Delaigue, Pierre Brigode, Guillaume Thirel, and Laurent Coron
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3293–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Teaching hydrological modeling is an important, but difficult, matter. It requires appropriate tools and teaching material. In this article, we present the airGRteaching package, which is an open-source software tool relying on widely used hydrological models. This tool proposes an interface and numerous hydrological modeling exercises representing a wide range of hydrological applications. We show how this tool can be applied to simple but real-life cases.
Alban de Lavenne, Vazken Andréassian, Louise Crochemore, Göran Lindström, and Berit Arheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2715–2732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2715-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A watershed remembers the past to some extent, and this memory influences its behavior. This memory is defined by the ability to store past rainfall for several years. By releasing this water into the river or the atmosphere, it tends to forget. We describe how this memory fades over time in France and Sweden. A few watersheds show a multi-year memory. It increases with the influence of groundwater or dry conditions. After 3 or 4 years, they behave independently of the past.
Antoine Pelletier and Vazken Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2733–2758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2733-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large part of the water cycle takes place underground. In many places, the soil stores water during the wet periods and can release it all year long, which is particularly visible when the river level is low. Modelling tools that are used to simulate and forecast the behaviour of the river struggle to represent this. We improved an existing model to take underground water into account using measurements of the soil water content. Results allow us make recommendations for model users.
Paul Royer-Gaspard, Vazken Andréassian, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5703–5716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Most evaluation studies based on the differential split-sample test (DSST) endorse the consensus that rainfall–runoff models lack climatic robustness. In this technical note, we propose a new performance metric to evaluate model robustness without applying the DSST and which can be used with a single hydrological model calibration. Our work makes it possible to evaluate the temporal transferability of any hydrological model, including uncalibrated models, at a very low computational cost.
Pierre Nicolle, Vazken Andréassian, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Charles Perrin, Guillaume Thirel, Laurent Coron, and Léonard Santos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5013–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this note, a new method (RAT) is proposed to assess the robustness of hydrological models. The RAT method is particularly interesting because it does not require multiple calibrations (it is therefore applicable to uncalibrated models), and it can be used to determine whether a hydrological model may be safely used for climate change impact studies. Success at the robustness assessment test is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition of model robustness.
Mounir Mahdade, Nicolas Le Moine, Roger Moussa, Oldrich Navratil, and Pierre Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3513–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3513-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3513-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an automatic procedure based on wavelet ridge extraction to identify some characteristics of alternating morphological units (e.g., pools to riffles). We used four hydro-morphological variables (velocity, hydraulic radius, bed shear stress, local channel direction angle). We find that the wavelengths are consistent with the values of the literature, and the use of a multivariate approach yields more robust results and ensures a consistent covariance of flow variables.
Céline Monteil, Fabrice Zaoui, Nicolas Le Moine, and Frédéric Hendrickx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3189–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3189-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental modelling is complex, and models often require the calibration of several parameters that are not able to be directly evaluated from a physical quantity or a field measurement. Based on our experience in hydrological modelling, we propose combining two algorithms to obtain a fast and accurate way of calibrating complex models (many parameters and many objectives). We built an R package, caRamel, so that this multi-objective calibration algorithm can be easily implemented.
José Manuel Tunqui Neira, Vazken Andréassian, Gaëlle Tallec, and Jean-Marie Mouchel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1823–1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1823-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with the mathematical representation of concentration–discharge relationships. We propose a two-sided affine power scaling relationship (2S-APS) as an alternative to the classic one-sided power scaling relationship (commonly known as
power law). We also discuss the identification of the parameters of the proposed relationship, using an appropriate numerical criterion, based on high-frequency chemical time series of the Orgeval-ORACLE observatory.
Antoine Pelletier and Vazken Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1171–1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1171-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1171-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There are many ways for water to join a river after a rainfall event, but they can be split into two categories: the quick ones that remain in the surface and the slow ones that use other trajectories. Thus, measured streamflow of a river can be split into two components: quickflow and baseflow. We present a new method to perform this separation, using only streamflow and rainfall data, which are generally broadly available. It is then used as an analysis tool of river dynamics over France.
José Manuel Tunqui Neira, Vazken Andréassian, Gaëlle Tallec, and Jean-Marie Mouchel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-325, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This Technical Note deals with the mathematical representation of concentration-discharge relationships and with the identification of its parameters. We propose a two-sided power transformation alternative to the classical log-log transformation, and a multicriterion identification procedure allowing determining parameters that are efficient, both from the concentration and the load points of view.
Vazken Andréassian and Tewfik Sari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2339–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2339-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this Technical Note, we present two water balance formulas: the Turc–Mezentsev and Tixeront–Fu formulas. These formulas have a puzzling numerical similarity, which we discuss in detail and try to interpret mathematically and hydrologically.
Cédric Rebolho, Vazken Andréassian, and Nicolas Le Moine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5967–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5967-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Inundation models are useful for hazard management and prevention. They are traditionally based on hydraulic partial differential equations (with satisfying results but large data and computational requirements). This study presents a simplified approach combining reach-scale geometric properties with steady uniform flow equations. The model shows promising results overall, although difficulties persist in the most complex urbanised reaches.
Laura Rouhier, Federico Garavaglia, Matthieu Le Lay, Timothée Michon, William Castaings, Nicolas Le Moine, Frédéric Hendrickx, Céline Monteil, and Pierre Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-342, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Parameter estimation of distributed hydrological models is usually conducted with a single method. However, the main methods can be combined to consider differently the model parameters according to their characteristics. The strategy presented in the paper takes advantage of three different methods to provide four different spatial patterns. This tailor-made method then proves to be more robust and more relevant for prediction in ungauged basins while significantly reducing the number of degree.
Philippe Riboust, Nicolas Le Moine, Guillaume Thirel, and Pierre Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-539, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In hydrological modelling complex forcing data are often needed to reproduce the energy balance, mainly for simulating snowmelt and evapotranspiration processes. Incoming radiation data are not widely measured and are often derived from reanalyses. We provide a method for simulating these radiations in mountainous areas using only daily temperature range data and a digital elevation model. The method has been validated on 105 weather stations and a simple snow surface temperature model.
Alban de Lavenne, Guillaume Thirel, Vazken Andréassian, Charles Perrin, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Proc. IAHS, 373, 87–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-87-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-87-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Developing modelling tools that help to understand the spatial distribution of water resources is a key issue for better management. Ideally, hydrological models which discretise catchment space into sub-catchments should offer better streamflow simulations than lumped models, along with spatially-relevant water resources management solutions. However we demonstrate that those model raise other issues related to the calibration strategy and to the identifiability of the parameters.
F. Bourgin, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, and L. Oudin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, 2015
D. Defrance, P. Javelle, D. Organde, S. Ecrepont, V. Andréassian, and P. Arnaud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-4365-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-4365-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?
State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
Improved representation of soil moisture processes through incorporation of cosmic-ray neutron count measurements in a large-scale hydrologic model
Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
Estimating response times, flow velocities, and roughness coefficients of Canadian Prairie basins
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Extended range forecasting of stream water temperature with deep learning models
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Achieving water budget closure through physical hydrological processes modelling: insights from a large-sample study
Analyzing the generalization capabilities of hybrid hydrological models for extrapolation to extreme events
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric-hydrological model
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Scale-dependency in modeling nivo-glacial hydrological systems: the case of the Arolla basin, Switzerland
A diversity centric strategy for the selection of spatio-temporal training data for LSTM-based streamflow forecasting
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: A large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify the hydrological and climatic drivers
Exploring the Potential Processes Controls for Changes of Precipitation-Runoff Relationships in Non-stationary Environments
Enhancing long short-term memory (LSTM)-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach
Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Real-time Flood Forecast Correction: A Case Study for an Underperforming Hydrologic Model
Broadleaf afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for the next month at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 day ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 1 month ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-230, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets, which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Datasets Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Processes Modelling to enhance water budget closure, called PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset, and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Eduardo Acuna Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall-runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study conducted a detailed analysis of runoff component and future trend in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin owing to the existed differences in the published results, and find that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow were limited, both for ~5 % which were much lower than previous results. The streamflow there will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution from glacier melt would lead to an underestimation on such increasing trend.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart Lane, and Francesco Comiti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until an overparametrization limit is reached.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-169, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine-learning models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained to large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets, that maximise the spatiotemproal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims at investigating how hydrological models can be transferred to a period in which climatic conditions are different to the ones of the period in which it was set up. The RAT method, built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers, was applied to 3 different hydrological models on 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are detected for a significant number of catchments for the 3 models even though these catchments differ for each model.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation-Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controls for changes in precipitation-runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation-runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.
Sebastian Gegenleithner, Manuel Pirker, Clemens Dorfmann, Roman Kern, and Josef Schneider
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1030, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate early warning systems are crucial for reducing damages caused by flooding events. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of Long Short-Term Memory Networks for enhancing the forecast accuracy of hydrologic models employed in operational flood forecasting. The presented approach elevated the investigated hydrologic model’s forecast accuracy for further ahead predictions and at flood event runoff.
Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Cited articles
Allen, R., Pereira, L., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration – Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO, Rome, FAO Irrigation and Drainage paper 56, 100 pp., 1998.
Arora, V. K.: The use of the aridity index to assess climate change effect on annual runoff, J. Hydrol., 265, 164–177, 2002.
Banque Hydro portal: Hydrometric data, available at: http://www.hydro.eaufrance.fr/, last access: 30 September 2016.
Chiew, F.: Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 51, 613–625, 2006.
Chiew, F., Potter, N. J., Vaze, J., Petheram, C., Zhang, L., Teng, J., and Post, D. A.: Observed hydrologic non-stationarity in far south-eastern Australia: implications for modelling and prediction, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 28, 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0755-5, 2013.
Coron, L., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Bourqui, M., and Hendrickx, F.: On the lack of robustness of hydrologic models regarding water balance simulation: a diagnostic approach applied to three models of increasing complexity on 20 mountainous catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 727–746, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-727-2014, 2014.
Donohue, R. J., McVicar, T. R., and Roderick, M. L.: Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate, J. Hydrol., 386, 186–197, 2010.
Donohue, R. J., Roderick, M., and McVicar, T.: Assessing the differences in sensitivities of runoff to changes in climatic conditions across a large basin, J. Hydrol., 406, 234–244, 2011.
Dooge, J.: Sensitivity of runoff to climate change: a Hortonian approach, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 73, 2013–2024, 1992.
Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R.: An introduction to the bootstrap, CRC press, Boca Raton, 1994.
Fu, G., Charles, S. P., and Chiew, F.: A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow, Water Resour. Res., 43, W11419, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR005890, 2007a.
Fu, G., Charles, S. P., Viney, N. R., Chen, S., and Wu, J. Q.: Impacts of climate variability on stream-flow in the Yellow River, Hydrol. Process., 21, 3431–3439, 2007b.
Johnston, J.: Econometric methods, McGraw-Hill, New York, 437 pp., 1972
Lebecherel, L., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: On regionalizing the Turc–Mezentsev water balance formula, Water Resour. Res., 49, 7508–7517, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013575, 2013.
Le Moigne, P.: Description de l'analyse des champs de surface sur la France par le système SAFRAN, Météo France CNRM/GMME/MC2, Toulouse, 2002.
Le Moine, N., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., and Michel, C.: How can rainfall-runoff models handle intercatchment groundwater flows? Theoretical study over 1040 French catchments, Water Resour. Res., 43, W06428, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005608, 2007.
Mezentsev, V.: Back to the computation of total evaporation, Meteorologia i Gidrologia, 5, 24–26, 1955.
Nelder, J. and Mead, R.: A simplex method for function minimization, Comput. J., 7, 308–313, 1965.
Nemec, J. and Schaake, J.: Sensitivity of water resources systems to climate variation, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 27, 327–343, 1982.
Niemann, J. D. and Eltahir, A. B.: Sensitivity of regional hydrology to climate changes, with application to the Illinois River basin, Water Resour. Res., 41, W07014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003893, 2005.
Oudin, L., Hervieu, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., Andréassian, V., Anctil, F., and Loumagne, C.: Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped rainfall-runoff model?: Part 2 – Towards a simple and efficient potential evapotranspiration model for rainfall-runoff modelling, J. Hydrol., 303, 290–306, 2005.
Potter, N. J. and Zhang, L.: Interannual variability of catchment water balance in Australia, J. Hydrol., 369, 120–129, 2009.
Potter, N. J., Chiew, F. H. S., and Frost, A. J.: An assessment of the severity of recent reductions in rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin, J. Hydrol., 381, 52–64, 2010.
Potter, N. J., Petheram, C., and Zhang, L.: Sensitivity of streamflow to rainfall and temperature in south-east Australia during the Millenium drought, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2011), 12–16 December 2011, Perth, Australia, 2011.
Sankarasubramanian, A., Vogel, R. M., and Limbrunner, J. F.: Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States, Water Resour. Res., 37, 1771–1781, 2001.
Schaake, J. and Liu, C.: Development and application of simple water balance models to understand the relationship between climate and water resources, New Directions for Surface Water Modeling, IAHS, Wallingford, 343–352, 1989.
Shuttleworth, W. J.: Evaporation, in: Handbook of hydrology, edited by: Maidment, D. R., McGraw-Hill, New-York, 1993.
Turc, L.: The water balance of soils: relationship between precipitations, evaporation and flow (Le bilan d'eau des sols: relation entre les précipitations, l'évaporation et l'écoulement), Ann. Agron., 5, 491–595, 1954.
Vogel, R. M., Wilson, I., and Daly, C.: Regional regression models of annual streamflow for the United States, J. Irrig. Drain. E.-ASCE, 125, 148–157, 1999.
Wolock, D. M. and McCabe, G. J.: Estimates of runoff using water-balance and atmospheric general circulation models, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 35, 1341–1350, 1999.
Yang, H. and Yang, D.: Derivation of climate elasticity of runoff to assess the effects of climate change on annual runoff, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07526, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009287, 2011.
Yang, H., Yang, D., Lei, Z., and Sun, F.: New analytical derivation of the mean annual water-energy balance equation, Water Resour. Res., 44, W03410, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006135, 2008.
Yang, H., Yang, D., and Hu, Q.: An error analysis of the Budyko hypothesis for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff, Water Resour. Res., 50, 9620–9629, 2014.
Short summary
We present a new method to derive the empirical (i.e., data-based) elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation. This method, which uses long-term hydrometeorological records, is tested on a set of 519 French catchments. We compare our method with the classical approach found in the literature and demonstrate its robustness and efficiency. Empirical elasticity is a powerful tool to test the extrapolation capacity of hydrological models.
We present a new method to derive the empirical (i.e., data-based) elasticity of streamflow to...
