Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-671-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-671-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 05 Feb 2026
| 05 Feb 2026
Mitigating the impact of increased drought-flood abrupt alternation events under climate change: the role of reservoirs in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin
Keer Zhang
Department of Hydraulic Engineering & State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Zilong Zhao
Department of Hydraulic Engineering & State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Department of Hydraulic Engineering & State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming 650091, China
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The upstream countries in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong basin build dams for hydropower, while downstream ones gain irrigation and fishery benefits. Dam operation changes the seasonality of runoff downstream, resulting in their concerns. Upstream countries may cooperate and change their regulations of dams to gain indirect political benefits. The socio-hydrological model couples hydrology, reservoir, economy, and cooperation and reproduces the phenomena, providing a useful model framework.
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Short summary
Focusing on Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation (DFAA) under climate change, this study investigates the mitigating role of reservoirs on DFAA in Lancang-Mekong River Basin. The drought-to-flood (DTF) probability is higher than the flood-to-drought (FTD) at all intensities. Reservoirs markedly reduce wet season’s FTD and year-round DTF, effectively shorten DFAA’s monthly span. The reservoir's mitigating effect on the total risk of DFAA is positively correlated with their total storage.
Focusing on Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation (DFAA) under climate change, this study...
