Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024
Research article
 | 
03 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 03 Jul 2024

Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method

Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2023-106', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Jul 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Shenglian Guo, 26 Jul 2023
  • CC1: 'Comment on hess-2023-106', Shaokun He, 21 Oct 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Shenglian Guo, 01 Nov 2023
  • CC2: 'Comment on hess-2023-106', Guang Yang, 23 Oct 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on CC2', Shenglian Guo, 01 Nov 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2023-106', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Feb 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Shenglian Guo, 26 Feb 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on hess-2023-106', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Feb 2024
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Shenglian Guo, 08 Mar 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by editor) (12 Apr 2024) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Shenglian Guo on behalf of the Authors (12 Apr 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 May 2024) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Shenglian Guo on behalf of the Authors (06 May 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (16 May 2024) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Shenglian Guo on behalf of the Authors (16 May 2024)
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Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.