Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
Research article
 | 
03 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 03 Jul 2024

Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method

Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu

Viewed

Total article views: 2,397 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,716 588 93 2,397 93 122
  • HTML: 1,716
  • PDF: 588
  • XML: 93
  • Total: 2,397
  • BibTeX: 93
  • EndNote: 122
Views and downloads (calculated since 28 Jun 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 28 Jun 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 2,397 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,371 with geography defined and 26 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 25 Nov 2025
Download
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Read more
Share