Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022
Research article
 | 
18 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 18 Aug 2022

Impact of cry wolf effects on social preparedness and the efficiency of flood early warning systems

Yohei Sawada, Rin Kanai, and Hitomu Kotani

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Cited articles

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Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble flood forecasting: A review, J. Hydrol., 375, 613–626, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005, 2009. 
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Short summary
Although flood early warning systems (FEWS) are promising, they inevitably issue false alarms. Many false alarms undermine the credibility of FEWS, which we call a cry wolf effect. Here, we present a simple model that can simulate the cry wolf effect. Our model implies that the cry wolf effect is important if a community is heavily protected by infrastructure and few floods occur. The cry wolf effects get more important as the natural scientific skill to predict flood events is improved.
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