Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Impact of cry wolf effects on social preparedness and the efficiency of flood early warning systems
Yohei Sawada
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Engineering Innovation, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Rin Kanai
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Tokyo,
Japan
Hitomu Kotani
Institute of Engineering Innovation, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Department of Natural Resources, Graduate School of Global
Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
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Short summary
Although flood early warning systems (FEWS) are promising, they inevitably issue false alarms. Many false alarms undermine the credibility of FEWS, which we call a cry wolf effect. Here, we present a simple model that can simulate the cry wolf effect. Our model implies that the cry wolf effect is important if a community is heavily protected by infrastructure and few floods occur. The cry wolf effects get more important as the natural scientific skill to predict flood events is improved.
Although flood early warning systems (FEWS) are promising, they inevitably issue false alarms....