Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
Research article
 | 
18 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 18 Aug 2022

Impact of cry wolf effects on social preparedness and the efficiency of flood early warning systems

Yohei Sawada, Rin Kanai, and Hitomu Kotani

Related authors

Global Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Subnational Droughts: A Comparative Analysis of Combined Versus Single Drought Indicators
Sneha Kulkarni, Yohei Sawada, Yared Bayissa, and Brian Wardlow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-245,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-245, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Ensemble Kalman filter in geoscience meets model predictive control
Yohei Sawada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2403.06371,https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2403.06371, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
A signal-processing-based interpretation of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency
Le Duc and Yohei Sawada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1827–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1827-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Global assessment of subnational drought impact based on the Geocoded Disasters dataset and land reanalysis
Yuya Kageyama and Yohei Sawada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4707–4720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4707-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4707-2022, 2022
Short summary
Combining ensemble Kalman filter and reservoir computing to predict spatiotemporal chaotic systems from imperfect observations and models
Futo Tomizawa and Yohei Sawada
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5623–5635, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5623-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5623-2021, 2021
Short summary
More articles (3)

Related subject area

Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Theory development
A pulse-decay method for low (matrix) permeability analyses of granular rock media
Tao Zhang, Qinhong Hu, Behzad Ghanbarian, Derek Elsworth, and Zhiming Lu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4453–4465, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4453-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4453-2023, 2023
Short summary
A signal-processing-based interpretation of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency
Le Duc and Yohei Sawada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1827–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1827-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Impact of detention dams on the probability distribution of floods
Salvatore Manfreda, Domenico Miglino, and Cinzia Albertini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4231–4242, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4231-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Hess Opinions: An interdisciplinary research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
Short summary
Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections
Beatrice Dittes, Olga Špačková, Lukas Schoppa, and Daniel Straub
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2511–2526, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2511-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2511-2018, 2018
Short summary
More articles (9)

Cited articles

Albertini, C., Mazzoleni, M., Totaro, V., Iacobellis, V., Di Baldassarre, G.: Socio-Hydrological Modelling: The Influence of Reservoir Management and Societal Responses on Flood Impacts, Water, 12, 1384, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051384, 2020. 
Barendrecht, M. H., Viglione, A., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., and Blöschl, G.: The Value of Empirical Data for Estimating the Parameters of a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model, Water Resour. Res., 55, 1312–1336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024128, 2019. 
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956, 2015. 
Ciullo, A., Viglione, A., Castellarin, A., Crisci, M., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Socio-hydrological modelling of flood-risk dynamics: comparing the resilience of green and technological systems, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 62, 880–891, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1273527, 2017. 
Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble flood forecasting: A review, J. Hydrol., 375, 613–626, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005, 2009. 
More articles (29)
Download
Short summary
Although flood early warning systems (FEWS) are promising, they inevitably issue false alarms. Many false alarms undermine the credibility of FEWS, which we call a cry wolf effect. Here, we present a simple model that can simulate the cry wolf effect. Our model implies that the cry wolf effect is important if a community is heavily protected by infrastructure and few floods occur. The cry wolf effects get more important as the natural scientific skill to predict flood events is improved.
Read more