Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
Research article
 | 
18 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 18 Aug 2022

Impact of cry wolf effects on social preparedness and the efficiency of flood early warning systems

Yohei Sawada, Rin Kanai, and Hitomu Kotani

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Latest update: 17 Sep 2025
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Short summary
Although flood early warning systems (FEWS) are promising, they inevitably issue false alarms. Many false alarms undermine the credibility of FEWS, which we call a cry wolf effect. Here, we present a simple model that can simulate the cry wolf effect. Our model implies that the cry wolf effect is important if a community is heavily protected by infrastructure and few floods occur. The cry wolf effects get more important as the natural scientific skill to predict flood events is improved.
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