Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jun 2022
Research article |
| 15 Jun 2022
| 15 Jun 2022
Evaluating the impact of post-processing medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts from the European Flood Awareness System
Gwyneth Matthews
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Christopher Barnard
Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Hannah Cloke
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden
Sarah L. Dance
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Toni Jurlina
Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Cinzia Mazzetti
Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Christel Prudhomme
Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Department of Geography, University of Loughborough, Loughborough, United Kingdom
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom
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Sazzad Hossain, Hannah L. Cloke, Andrea Ficchì, Andrew G. Turner, and Elisabeth Stephens
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Elizabeth S. Cooper, Sarah L. Dance, Javier García-Pintado, Nancy K. Nichols, and Polly J. Smith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2541–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2541-2019, 2019
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Jessica L. Neumann, Louise Arnal, Rebecca E. Emerton, Helen Griffith, Stuart Hyslop, Sofia Theofanidi, and Hannah L. Cloke
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Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
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Rebecca Emerton, Ervin Zsoter, Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Davide Muraro, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Peter Salamon, and Florian Pappenberger
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Joanne A. Waller, Javier García-Pintado, David C. Mason, Sarah L. Dance, and Nancy K. Nichols
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3983–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3983-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3983-2018, 2018
Maliko Tanguy, Christel Prudhomme, Katie Smith, and Jamie Hannaford
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 951–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-951-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-951-2018, 2018
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Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018
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Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Katie Smith, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, 2018
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We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
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In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Simon Parry, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, and Paul J. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, 2016
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This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016
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Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.
Dave MacLeod, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, and Antje Weisheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2737–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016, 2016
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Soil moisture memory is a key aspect of seasonal climate predictions, through feedback between the land surface and the atmosphere. Estimates have been made of the length of soil moisture memory; however, we show here how estimates of memory show large variation with uncertain model parameters. Explicit representation of model uncertainty may then improve the realism of simulations and seasonal climate forecasts.
A. Chiverton, J. Hannaford, I. P. Holman, R. Corstanje, C. Prudhomme, T. M. Hess, and J. P. Bloomfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2395–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, 2015
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Current hydrological change detection methods are subject to a host of limitations. This paper develops a new method, temporally shifting variograms (TSVs), which characterises variability in the river flow regime using several parameters, changes in which can then be attributed to precipitation characteristics. We demonstrate the use of the method through application to 94 UK catchments, showing that periods of extremes as well as more subtle changes can be detected.
I. Giuntoli, J.-P. Vidal, C. Prudhomme, and D. M. Hannah
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, 2015
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We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
G. Balsamo, C. Albergel, A. Beljaars, S. Boussetta, E. Brun, H. Cloke, D. Dee, E. Dutra, J. Muñoz-Sabater, F. Pappenberger, P. de Rosnay, T. Stockdale, and F. Vitart
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 389–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015, 2015
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ERA-Interim/Land is a global land surface reanalysis covering the period 1979–2010. It describes the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature and snowpack. ERA-Interim/Land includes a number of parameterization improvements in the land surface scheme with respect to the original ERA-Interim and a precipitation bias correction based on GPCP. A selection of verification results show the added value in representing the terrestrial water cycle and its main land surface storages and fluxes.
C. C. Sampson, T. J. Fewtrell, F. O'Loughlin, F. Pappenberger, P. B. Bates, J. E. Freer, and H. L. Cloke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2305–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014, 2014
F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, L. Alfieri, H. L. Cloke, J. Thielen-del Pozo, S. Balabanova, J. Daňhelka, A. Vogelbacher, P. Salamon, I. Carrasco, A. J. Cabrera-Tordera, M. Corzo-Toscano, M. Garcia-Padilla, R. J. Garcia-Sanchez, C. Ardilouze, S. Jurela, B. Terek, A. Csik, J. Casey, G. Stankūnavičius, V. Ceres, E. Sprokkereef, J. Stam, E. Anghel, D. Vladikovic, C. Alionte Eklund, N. Hjerdt, H. Djerv, F. Holmberg, J. Nilsson, K. Nyström, M. Sušnik, M. Hazlinger, and M. Holubecka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4389–4399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013, 2013
C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1365–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1365-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1365-2013, 2013
C. Prudhomme, T. Haxton, S. Crooks, C. Jackson, A. Barkwith, J. Williamson, J. Kelvin, J. Mackay, L. Wang, A. Young, and G. Watts
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 101–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-101-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-101-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Actionable human–water system modelling under uncertainty
Robust multi-objective optimization under multiple uncertainties using the CM-ROPAR approach: case study of water resources allocation in the Huaihe River basin
Coupled effects of observation and parameter uncertainty on urban groundwater infrastructure decisions
Disentangling sources of future uncertainties for water management in sub-Saharan river basins
Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis
Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: a probabilistic assessment
Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology
Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North
Describing the interannual variability of precipitation with the derived distribution approach: effects of record length and resolution
Dissolved oxygen prediction using a possibility theory based fuzzy neural network
Projected changes in US rainfall erosivity
Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data
Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation
Robust global sensitivity analysis of a river management model to assess nonlinear and interaction effects
Sensitivity and uncertainty in crop water footprint accounting: a case study for the Yellow River basin
Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river basin resilience
On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models
Statistical analysis of error propagation from radar rainfall to hydrological models
The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods
Crop yields response to water pressures in the Ebro basin in Spain: risk and water policy implications
Laura Gil-García, Nazaret M. Montilla-López, Carlos Gutiérrez-Martín, Ángel Sánchez-Daniel, Pablo Saiz-Santiago, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Julio Pindado, and Carlos Dionisio Pérez-Blanco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4501–4520, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4501-2024, 2024
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This paper presents an interdisciplinary model for quantifying uncertainties in water allocation under climate change. It combines climate, hydrological, and microeconomic experiments with a decision support system. Multi-model analyses reveal potential futures for water management policies, emphasizing non-linear climate responses. As illustrated in the Douro River basin, minor water allocation changes have significant economic impacts, stresssing the need for adaptation strategies.
Jitao Zhang, Dimitri Solomatine, and Zengchuan Dong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3739–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, 2024
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Faced with the problem of uncertainty in the field of water resources management, this paper proposes the Copula Multi-objective Robust Optimization and Probabilistic Analysis of Robustness (CM-ROPAR) approach to obtain robust water allocation schemes based on the uncertainty of drought and wet encounters and the uncertainty of inflow. We believe that this research article not only highlights the significance of the CM-ROPAR approach but also provides a new concept for uncertainty analysis.
Marina R. L. Mautner, Laura Foglia, and Jonathan D. Herman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1319–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, 2022
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Sensitivity analysis can be harnessed to evaluate effects of model uncertainties on planning outcomes. This study explores how observation and parameter uncertainty propagate through a hydrogeologic model to influence the ranking of decision alternatives. Using global sensitivity analysis and evaluation of aquifer management objectives, we evaluate how physical properties of the model and choice of observations for calibration can lead to variations in decision-relevant model outputs.
Alessandro Amaranto, Dinis Juizo, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, 2022
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This study aims at designing water supply strategies that are robust against climate, social, and land use changes in a sub-Saharan river basin. We found that robustness analysis supports the discovery of policies enhancing the resilience of water resources systems, benefiting the agricultural, energy, and urban sectors. We show how energy sustainability is affected by water availability, while urban and irrigation resilience also depends on infrastructural interventions and land use changes.
Thibaut Lachaut and Amaury Tilmant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6421–6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, 2021
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Response surfaces are increasingly used to identify the hydroclimatic conditions leading to a water resources system's failure. Partitioning the surface usually requires performance thresholds that are not necessarily crisp. We propose a methodology that combines the inherent uncertainty of response surfaces with the ambiguity of performance thresholds. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a multireservoir system in Canada for which some performance thresholds are imprecise.
Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018
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Floods and droughts cause significant damages and pose risks to lives worldwide. In a climate change context this work identifies hotspots across Great Britain, i.e. places expected to be impacted by an increase in floods and droughts. By the 2080s the western coast of England and Wales and northeastern Scotland would experience more floods in winter and droughts in autumn, with a higher increase in drought hazard, showing a need to adapt water management policies in light of climate change.
Seungwoo Chang, Wendy Graham, Jeffrey Geurink, Nisai Wanakule, and Tirusew Asefa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4793–4813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, 2018
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It is important to understand potential impacts of climate change and human water use on streamflow and groundwater levels. This study used climate models with an integrated hydrologic model to project future streamflow and groundwater level in Tampa Bay for a variety of future water use scenarios. Impacts of different climate projections on streamflow were found to be much stronger than the impacts of different human water use scenarios, but both were significant for groundwater projection.
Jessica E. Cherry, Corrie Knapp, Sarah Trainor, Andrea J. Ray, Molly Tedesche, and Susan Walker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 133–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-133-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-133-2017, 2017
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We know that climate is changing quickly in the Far North (the Arctic and sub-Arctic). Hydropower continues to grow in this region because water resources are perceived to be plentiful. However, with changes in glacier extent and permafrost, and more extreme events, will those resources prove reliable into the future? This study amasses the evidence that quantitative hydrology modeling and uncertainty assessment have matured to the point where they should be used in water resource planning.
Claudio I. Meier, Jorge Sebastián Moraga, Geri Pranzini, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4177–4190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, 2016
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We show that the derived distribution approach is able to characterize the interannual variability of precipitation much better than fitting a probabilistic model to annual rainfall totals, as long as continuously gauged data are available. The method is a useful tool for describing temporal changes in the distribution of annual rainfall, as it works for records as short as 5 years, and therefore does not require any stationarity assumption over long periods.
Usman T. Khan and Caterina Valeo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2267–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2267-2016, 2016
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This paper contains a new two-step method to construct fuzzy numbers using observational data. In addition an existing fuzzy neural network is modified to account for fuzzy number inputs. This is combined with possibility-theory based intervals to train the network. Furthermore, model output and a defuzzification technique is used to estimate the risk of low Dissolved Oxygen so that water resource managers can implement strategies to prevent the occurrence of low Dissolved Oxygen.
M. Biasutti and R. Seager
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2945–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2945-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2945-2015, 2015
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We estimate future changes in US erosivity from the most recent ensemble projections of daily and monthly rainfall accumulation. The expectation of overall increase in erosivity is confirmed by these calculations, but a quantitative assessment is marred by large uncertainties. Specifically, the uncertainty in the method of estimation of erosivity is more consequential than that deriving from the spread in climate simulations, and leads to changes of uncertain sign in parts of the south.
M. C. Peel, R. Srikanthan, T. A. McMahon, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1615–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015, 2015
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We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty
T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015, 2015
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Here we assess GCM performance from a hydrologic perspective. We identify five better performing CMIP3 GCMs that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature over global land regions for future hydrologic simulation. GCM performance in reproducing observed mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and mean monthly precipitation and temperature was assessed and ranked, and five better performing GCMs were identified.
L. J. M. Peeters, G. M. Podger, T. Smith, T. Pickett, R. H. Bark, and S. M. Cuddy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3777–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, 2014
L. Zhuo, M. M. Mekonnen, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2219–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2219-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2219-2014, 2014
C. A. Scott, S. Vicuña, I. Blanco-Gutiérrez, F. Meza, and C. Varela-Ortega
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1339–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014, 2014
N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3605–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, 2013
D. Zhu, D. Z. Peng, and I. D. Cluckie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1445–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1445-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1445-2013, 2013
B. L. Harding, A. W. Wood, and J. R. Prairie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3989–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012, 2012
J.-S. Yang, E.-S. Chung, S.-U. Kim, and T.-W. Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-801-2012, 2012
S. Quiroga, Z. Fernández-Haddad, and A. Iglesias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-505-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-505-2011, 2011
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Short summary
The European Flood Awareness System creates flood forecasts for up to 15 d in the future for the whole of Europe which are made available to local authorities. These forecasts can be erroneous because the weather forecasts include errors or because the hydrological model used does not represent the flow in the rivers correctly. We found that, by using recent observations and a model trained with past observations and forecasts, the real-time forecast can be corrected, thus becoming more useful.
The European Flood Awareness System creates flood forecasts for up to 15 d in the future for the...
