Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022
Research article
 | 
06 Apr 2022
Research article |  | 06 Apr 2022

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

Wilson C. H. Chan, Theodore G. Shepherd, Katie Facer-Childs, Geoff Darch, and Nigel W. Arnell

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Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Cited articles

Anandhi, A., Frei, A., Pierson, D. C., Schneiderman, E. M., Zion, M. S., Lounsbury, D., and Matonse, A. H.: Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment, Water Resour. Res., 47, W03501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009104, 2011. 
Arnell, N. W.: Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain, J. Hydrol., 270, 195–213, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00288-3, 2003. 
Arnell, N. W.: Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 897–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-897-2011, 2011. 
Arnell, N. W., Kay, A. L., Freeman, A., Rudd, A. C., and Lowe, J. A.: Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators, Climate Risk Management, 31, 100265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265, 2021. 
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., and Meko, D. M.: Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data, J. Climate, 27, 7529–7549, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1, 2014. 
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We select the 2010–2012 UK drought and investigate an alternative unfolding of the drought from changes to its attributes. We created storylines of drier preconditions, alternative seasonal contributions, a third dry winter, and climate change. Storylines of the 2010–2012 drought show alternative situations that could have resulted in worse conditions than observed. Event-based storylines exploring plausible situations are used that may lead to high impacts and help stress test existing systems.