Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Research article
06 Apr 2022
Research article |  | 06 Apr 2022

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

Wilson C. H. Chan, Theodore G. Shepherd, Katie Facer-Childs, Geoff Darch, and Nigel W. Arnell

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Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Cited articles

Anandhi, A., Frei, A., Pierson, D. C., Schneiderman, E. M., Zion, M. S., Lounsbury, D., and Matonse, A. H.: Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment, Water Resour. Res., 47, W03501,, 2011. 
Arnell, N. W.: Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain, J. Hydrol., 270, 195–213,, 2003. 
Arnell, N. W.: Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 897–912,, 2011. 
Arnell, N. W., Kay, A. L., Freeman, A., Rudd, A. C., and Lowe, J. A.: Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators, Climate Risk Management, 31, 100265,, 2021. 
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., and Meko, D. M.: Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data, J. Climate, 27, 7529–7549,, 2014. 
Short summary
We select the 2010–2012 UK drought and investigate an alternative unfolding of the drought from changes to its attributes. We created storylines of drier preconditions, alternative seasonal contributions, a third dry winter, and climate change. Storylines of the 2010–2012 drought show alternative situations that could have resulted in worse conditions than observed. Event-based storylines exploring plausible situations are used that may lead to high impacts and help stress test existing systems.