Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022
Research article
 | 
06 Apr 2022
Research article |  | 06 Apr 2022

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

Wilson C. H. Chan, Theodore G. Shepherd, Katie Facer-Childs, Geoff Darch, and Nigel W. Arnell

Related authors

Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK – a data-rich temperate environment
Jamie Hannaford, Stephen Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Wilson Chan, Lucy J. Barker, Maliko Tanguy, Simon Parry, and Stuart Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-293,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-293, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Anandhi, A., Frei, A., Pierson, D. C., Schneiderman, E. M., Zion, M. S., Lounsbury, D., and Matonse, A. H.: Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment, Water Resour. Res., 47, W03501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009104, 2011. 
Arnell, N. W.: Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain, J. Hydrol., 270, 195–213, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00288-3, 2003. 
Arnell, N. W.: Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 897–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-897-2011, 2011. 
Arnell, N. W., Kay, A. L., Freeman, A., Rudd, A. C., and Lowe, J. A.: Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators, Climate Risk Management, 31, 100265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265, 2021. 
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., and Meko, D. M.: Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data, J. Climate, 27, 7529–7549, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1, 2014. 
Download
Short summary
We select the 2010–2012 UK drought and investigate an alternative unfolding of the drought from changes to its attributes. We created storylines of drier preconditions, alternative seasonal contributions, a third dry winter, and climate change. Storylines of the 2010–2012 drought show alternative situations that could have resulted in worse conditions than observed. Event-based storylines exploring plausible situations are used that may lead to high impacts and help stress test existing systems.