Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022
Research article
 | 
09 Mar 2022
Research article |  | 09 Mar 2022

Coupled effects of observation and parameter uncertainty on urban groundwater infrastructure decisions

Marina R. L. Mautner, Laura Foglia, and Jonathan D. Herman

Related authors

Governing change: a dynamical systems approach to understanding the stability of environmental governance
Nusrat Molla, John DeIonno, Thilo Gross, and Jonathan Herman
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1677–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1677-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Sensitivity of hydrologic and geologic parameters on recharge processes in a highly heterogeneous, semi-confined aquifer system
Stephen R. Maples, Laura Foglia, Graham E. Fogg, and Reed M. Maxwell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2437–2456, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2437-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2437-2020, 2020
Short summary
Spatially distributed sensitivity of simulated global groundwater heads and flows to hydraulic conductivity, groundwater recharge, and surface water body parameterization
Robert Reinecke, Laura Foglia, Steffen Mehl, Jonathan D. Herman, Alexander Wachholz, Tim Trautmann, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4561–4582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4561-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4561-2019, 2019
Short summary
Challenges in developing a global gradient-based groundwater model (G3M v1.0) for the integration into a global hydrological model
Robert Reinecke, Laura Foglia, Steffen Mehl, Tim Trautmann, Denise Cáceres, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2401-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2401-2019, 2019
Short summary
Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: the role of model parameter uncertainty
N. W. Chaney, J. D. Herman, P. M. Reed, and E. F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3239–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015, 2015
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Evaluating the impact of post-processing medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts from the European Flood Awareness System
Gwyneth Matthews, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, Sarah L. Dance, Toni Jurlina, Cinzia Mazzetti, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2939–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Disentangling sources of future uncertainties for water management in sub-Saharan river basins
Alessandro Amaranto, Dinis Juizo, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis
Thibaut Lachaut and Amaury Tilmant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6421–6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, 2021
Short summary
Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: a probabilistic assessment
Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018
Short summary
Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology
Seungwoo Chang, Wendy Graham, Jeffrey Geurink, Nisai Wanakule, and Tirusew Asefa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4793–4813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, 2018
Short summary

Cited articles

Bakker, M., Post, V., Hughes, J. D., Langevin, C. D., White, J. T., Leaf, A. T., Paulinski, S. R., Bellino, J. C., Morway, E. D., Toews, M. W., Larsen, J. D., Fienen, M. N., Starn, J. J., and Brakenhoff, D.: FloPy v3.2.12 — release candidate: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 31 May 2019 [code], https://doi.org/10.5066/F7BK19FH, 2019. a
Bárdossy, A.: Calibration of hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 703–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-703-2007, 2007. a
Beven, K.: Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 61, 1652–1665, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761, 2016. a
Bhaskar, A. S., Beesley, L., Burns, M. J., Fletcher, T. D., Hamel, P., Oldham, C. E., and Roy, A. H.: Will it rise or will it fall? Managing the complex effects of urbanization on base flow, Freshw. Science, 35, 293–310, https://doi.org/10.1086/685084, 2016. a
Borgonovo, E.: A new uncertainty importance measure, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe, 92, 771–784, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2006.04.015, 2007. a
Download
Short summary
Sensitivity analysis can be harnessed to evaluate effects of model uncertainties on planning outcomes. This study explores how observation and parameter uncertainty propagate through a hydrogeologic model to influence the ranking of decision alternatives. Using global sensitivity analysis and evaluation of aquifer management objectives, we evaluate how physical properties of the model and choice of observations for calibration can lead to variations in decision-relevant model outputs.