Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022
Research article
 | 
09 Mar 2022
Research article |  | 09 Mar 2022

Coupled effects of observation and parameter uncertainty on urban groundwater infrastructure decisions

Marina R. L. Mautner, Laura Foglia, and Jonathan D. Herman

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Cited articles

Bakker, M., Post, V., Hughes, J. D., Langevin, C. D., White, J. T., Leaf, A. T., Paulinski, S. R., Bellino, J. C., Morway, E. D., Toews, M. W., Larsen, J. D., Fienen, M. N., Starn, J. J., and Brakenhoff, D.: FloPy v3.2.12 — release candidate: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 31 May 2019 [code], https://doi.org/10.5066/F7BK19FH, 2019. a
Bárdossy, A.: Calibration of hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 703–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-703-2007, 2007. a
Beven, K.: Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 61, 1652–1665, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761, 2016. a
Bhaskar, A. S., Beesley, L., Burns, M. J., Fletcher, T. D., Hamel, P., Oldham, C. E., and Roy, A. H.: Will it rise or will it fall? Managing the complex effects of urbanization on base flow, Freshw. Science, 35, 293–310, https://doi.org/10.1086/685084, 2016. a
Borgonovo, E.: A new uncertainty importance measure, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe, 92, 771–784, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2006.04.015, 2007. a
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Short summary
Sensitivity analysis can be harnessed to evaluate effects of model uncertainties on planning outcomes. This study explores how observation and parameter uncertainty propagate through a hydrogeologic model to influence the ranking of decision alternatives. Using global sensitivity analysis and evaluation of aquifer management objectives, we evaluate how physical properties of the model and choice of observations for calibration can lead to variations in decision-relevant model outputs.