Articles | Volume 25, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
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06 Dec 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 06 Dec 2021
| 06 Dec 2021
Assessing the dependence structure between oceanographic, fluvial, and pluvial flooding drivers along the United States coastline
Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National
Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, 12800 Pegasus Drive, Suite 211, Orlando, FL 32816-2450, USA
Thomas Wahl
Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National
Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, 12800 Pegasus Drive, Suite 211, Orlando, FL 32816-2450, USA
Md Mamunur Rashid
Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National
Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, 12800 Pegasus Drive, Suite 211, Orlando, FL 32816-2450, USA
Paula Camus
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Ivan D. Haigh
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre
Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
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Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
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The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
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We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Jun Yu Puah, Ivan D. Haigh, David Lallemant, Kyle Morgan, Dongju Peng, Masashi Watanabe, and Adam D. Switzer
Ocean Sci., 20, 1229–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, 2024
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Coastal currents have wide implications for port activities, transport of sediments, and coral reef ecosystems; thus a deeper understanding of their characteristics is needed. We collected data on current velocities for a year using current meters at shallow waters in Singapore. The strength of the currents is primarily affected by tides and winds and generally increases during the monsoon seasons across various frequencies.
Joshua Green, Ivan Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, 2024
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Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Sönke Dangendorf, Qiang Sun, Thomas Wahl, Philip Thompson, Jerry X. Mitrovica, and Ben Hamlington
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3471–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3471-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3471-2024, 2024
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Sea-level information from the global ocean is sparse in time and space, with comprehensive data being limited to the period since 2005. Here we provide a novel reconstruction of sea level and its contributing causes, as determined by a Kalman smoother approach applied to tide gauge records over the period 1900–2021. The new reconstruction shows a continuing acceleration in global mean sea-level rise since 1970 that is dominated by melting land ice. Contributors vary significantly by region.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
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Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
Ziyu Chen, Philip Orton, James Booth, Thomas Wahl, Arthur DeGaetano, Joel Kaatz, and Radley Horton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-135, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
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Urban flooding can be driven by rain and storm surge or the combination of the two, which is called compound flooding. In this study we analyzed hourly historical rain and surge data for New York City to provide a more detailed statistical analysis than prior studies of this topic. The analyses reveal that tropical cyclones (e.g. hurricanes) have potential for causing more extreme compound floods than other storms, while extratropical cyclones cause more frequent, lesser compound events.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Andrew Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1122, 2024
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Most of the studies on compound flooding assume events that generate extreme rainfall and coastal water level responses originate from a single population, in reality, they originate from multiple populations each with unique statistical characteristics. This paper presents a flexible statistical framework for assessing the compound flood potential from multiple flood drivers that explicitly accounts for different event types.
Simon Treu, Sanne Muis, Sönke Dangendorf, Thomas Wahl, Julius Oelsmann, Stefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler, and Matthias Mengel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1121–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, 2024
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This article describes a reconstruction of monthly coastal water levels from 1900–2015 and hourly data from 1979–2015, both with and without long-term sea level rise. The dataset is based on a combination of three datasets that are focused on different aspects of coastal water levels. Comparison with tide gauge records shows that this combination brings reconstructions closer to the observations compared to the individual datasets.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
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We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
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We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
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Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
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High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
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The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Jiayi Fang, Thomas Wahl, Jian Fang, Xun Sun, Feng Kong, and Min Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4403–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, 2021
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A comprehensive assessment of compound flooding potential is missing for China. We investigate dependence, drivers, and impacts of storm surge and precipitation for coastal China. Strong dependence exists between driver combinations, with variations of seasons and thresholds. Sea level rise escalates compound flood potential. Meteorology patterns are pronounced for low and high compound flood potential. Joint impacts from surge and precipitation were much higher than from each individually.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Robert Jane, Luis Cadavid, Jayantha Obeysekera, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2681–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2681-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2681-2020, 2020
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Full dependence is assumed between drivers in flood protection assessments of coastal water control structures in south Florida. A 2-D analysis of rainfall and coastal water level showed that the magnitude of the conservative assumption in the original design is highly sensitive to the regional sea level rise projection considered. The vine copula and HT04 model outperformed five higher-dimensional copulas in capturing the dependence between rainfall, coastal water level, and groundwater level.
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
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Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
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When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
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Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
Robert Marsh, Ivan D. Haigh, Stuart A. Cunningham, Mark E. Inall, Marie Porter, and Ben I. Moat
Ocean Sci., 13, 315–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, 2017
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To the west of Britain and Ireland, a strong ocean current follows the steep slope that separates the deep Atlantic and the continental shelf. This “Slope Current” exerts an Atlantic influence on the North Sea and its ecosystems. Using a combination of computer modelling and archived data, we find that the Slope Current weakened over 1988–2007, reducing Atlantic influence on the North Sea, due to a combination of warming of the subpolar North Atlantic and weakening winds to the west of Scotland.
M. P. Wadey, J. M. Brown, I. D. Haigh, T. Dolphin, and P. Wisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2209–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, 2015
M. P. Wadey, I. D. Haigh, and J. M. Brown
Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Coasts and Estuaries | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Quantifying cascading uncertainty in compound flood modeling with linked process-based and machine learning models
Mangroves as nature-based mitigation for ENSO-driven compound flood risks in a large river delta
Forecasting estuarine salt intrusion in the Rhine–Meuse delta using an LSTM model
Coastal topography and hydrogeology control critical groundwater gradients and potential beach surface instability during storm surges
Effect of tides on river water behavior over the eastern shelf seas of China
Extreme precipitation events induce high fluxes of groundwater and associated nutrients to coastal ocean
Temporally resolved coastal hypoxia forecasting and uncertainty assessment via Bayesian mechanistic modeling
Statistical modelling and climate variability of compound surge and precipitation events in a managed water system: a case study in the Netherlands
Estimating the probability of compound floods in estuarine regions
Accretion, retreat and transgression of coastal wetlands experiencing sea-level rise
Climate change overtakes coastal engineering as the dominant driver of hydrological change in a large shallow lagoon
Dynamic mechanism of an extremely severe saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang estuary in February 2014
A novel approach for the assessment of morphological evolution based on observed water levels in tide-dominated estuaries
Seasonal behaviour of tidal damping and residual water level slope in the Yangtze River estuary: identifying the critical position and river discharge for maximum tidal damping
Sediment budget analysis of the Guayas River using a process-based model
Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy)
Analytical and numerical study of the salinity intrusion in the Sebou river estuary (Morocco) – effect of the “Super Blood Moon” (total lunar eclipse) of 2015
Linking biogeochemistry to hydro-geometrical variability in tidal estuaries: a generic modeling approach
Impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South–North Water Transfer Project and water abstractions on the duration and intensity of salt intrusions in the Yangtze River estuary
A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling
Revised predictive equations for salt intrusion modelling in estuaries
Impact of the Hoa Binh dam (Vietnam) on water and sediment budgets in the Red River basin and delta
Large-scale suspended sediment transport and sediment deposition in the Mekong Delta
Hydrodynamic controls on oxygen dynamics in a riverine salt wedge estuary, the Yarra River estuary, Australia
Assessing hydrological effects of human interventions on coastal systems: numerical applications to the Venice Lagoon
Environmental flow assessments in estuaries based on an integrated multi-objective method
Modelling climate change effects on a Dutch coastal groundwater system using airborne electromagnetic measurements
An analytical solution for tidal propagation in the Yangtze Estuary, China
Understanding and managing the Westerschelde – synchronizing the physical system and the management system of a complex estuary
David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2531–2553, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2531-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2531-2024, 2024
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Linking hydrodynamics with machine learning models for compound flood modeling enables a robust characterization of nonlinear interactions among the sources of uncertainty. Such an approach enables the quantification of cascading uncertainty and relative contributions to total uncertainty while also tracking their evolution during compound flooding. The proposed approach is a feasible alternative to conventional statistical approaches designed for uncertainty analyses.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Olivier Gourgue, Luis Elvin Dominguez-Granda, and Stijn Temmerman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1463–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024, 2024
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The combination of extreme sea levels with increased river flow typically can lead to so-called compound floods. Often these are caused by storms (< 1 d), but climatic events such as El Niño could trigger compound floods over a period of months. We show that the combination of increased sea level and river discharge causes extreme water levels to amplify upstream. Mangrove forests, however, can act as a nature-based flood protection by lowering the extreme water levels coming from the sea.
Bas J. M. Wullems, Claudia C. Brauer, Fedor Baart, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3823–3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023, 2023
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In deltas, saltwater sometimes intrudes far inland and causes problems with freshwater availability. We created a model to forecast salt concentrations at a critical location in the Rhine–Meuse delta in the Netherlands. It requires a rather small number of data to make a prediction and runs fast. It predicts the occurrence of salt concentration peaks well but underestimates the highest peaks. Its speed gives water managers more time to reduce the problems caused by salt intrusion.
Anner Paldor, Nina Stark, Matthew Florence, Britt Raubenheimer, Steve Elgar, Rachel Housego, Ryan S. Frederiks, and Holly A. Michael
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5987–6002, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5987-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5987-2022, 2022
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Ocean surges can impact the stability of beaches by changing the hydraulic regime. These surge-induced changes in the hydraulic regime have important implications for coastal engineering and for beach morphology. This work uses 3D computer simulations to study how these alterations vary in space and time. We find that certain areas along and across the beach are potentially more vulnerable than others and that previous assumptions regarding the most dangerous places may need to be revised.
Lei Lin, Hao Liu, Xiaomeng Huang, Qingjun Fu, and Xinyu Guo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5207–5225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5207-2022, 2022
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Earth system (climate) model is an important instrument for projecting the global water cycle and climate change, in which tides are commonly excluded due to the much small timescales compared to the climate. However, we found that tides significantly impact the river water transport pathways, transport timescales, and concentrations in shelf seas. Thus, the tidal effect should be carefully considered in earth system models to accurately project the global water and biogeochemical cycle.
Marc Diego-Feliu, Valentí Rodellas, Aaron Alorda-Kleinglass, Maarten Saaltink, Albert Folch, and Jordi Garcia-Orellana
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4619–4635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4619-2022, 2022
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Rainwater infiltrates aquifers and travels a long subsurface journey towards the ocean where it eventually enters below sea level. In its path towards the sea, water becomes enriched in many compounds that are naturally or artificially present within soils and sediments. We demonstrate that extreme rainfall events may significantly increase the inflow of water to the ocean, thereby increasing the supply of these compounds that are fundamental for the sustainability of coastal ecosystems.
Alexey Katin, Dario Del Giudice, and Daniel R. Obenour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1131–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1131-2022, 2022
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Low oxygen conditions (hypoxia) occur almost every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here, we present a new approach for forecasting hypoxia from June through September, leveraging a process-based model and an advanced statistical framework. We also show how using spring hydrometeorological information can improve forecast accuracy while reducing uncertainties. The proposed forecasting system shows the potential to support the management of threatened coastal ecosystems and fisheries.
Víctor M. Santos, Mercè Casas-Prat, Benjamin Poschlod, Elisa Ragno, Bart van den Hurk, Zengchao Hao, Tímea Kalmár, Lianhua Zhu, and Husain Najafi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3595–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3595-2021, 2021
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We present an application of multivariate statistical models to assess compound flooding events in a managed reservoir. Data (from a previous study) were obtained from a physical-based hydrological model driven by a regional climate model large ensemble, providing a time series expanding up to 800 years in length that ensures stable statistics. The length of the data set allows for a sensitivity assessment of the proposed statistical framework to natural climate variability.
Wenyan Wu, Seth Westra, and Michael Leonard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2821–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2821-2021, 2021
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Flood probability estimation is important for applications such as land use planning, reservoir operation, infrastructure design and safety assessments. However, it is a challenging task, especially in estuarine areas where floods are caused by both intense rainfall and storm surge. This study provides a review of approaches to flood probability estimation in these areas. Based on analysis of a real-world river system, guidance on method selection is provided.
Angelo Breda, Patricia M. Saco, Steven G. Sandi, Neil Saintilan, Gerardo Riccardi, and José F. Rodríguez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 769–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-769-2021, 2021
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We study accretion, retreat and transgression of mangrove and saltmarsh wetlands affected by sea-level rise (SLR) using simulations on typical configurations with different levels of tidal obstruction. Interactions and feedbacks between flow, sediment deposition, vegetation migration and soil accretion result in wetlands not surviving the predicted high-emission scenario SLR, despite dramatic increases in sediment supply. Previous simplified models overpredict wetland resilience to SLR.
Peisheng Huang, Karl Hennig, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, and Matthew R. Hipsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5673–5697, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5673-2020, 2020
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Our results conclude that the climate change in the past decades has a remarkable effect on the hydrology of a large shallow lagoon with the same magnitude as that caused by the opening of an artificial channel, and it also highlighted the complexity of their interactions. We suggested that the consideration of the projected drying trend is essential in designing management plans associated with planning for environmental water provision and setting water quality loading targets.
Jianrong Zhu, Xinyue Cheng, Linjiang Li, Hui Wu, Jinghua Gu, and Hanghang Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5043-2020, 2020
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An extremely severe saltwater intrusion event occurred in February 2014 in the Changjiang estuary and seriously influenced the water intake of the reservoir. For the event cause and for freshwater safety, the dynamic mechanism was studied with observed data and a numerical model. The results indicated that this event was caused by a persistent and strong northerly wind, which formed a horizontal estuarine circulation, surpassed seaward runoff and drove highly saline water into the estuary.
Huayang Cai, Ping Zhang, Erwan Garel, Pascal Matte, Shuai Hu, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1871-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1871-2020, 2020
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Understanding the morphological changes in estuaries due to natural processes and human interventions is especially important with regard to sustainable water management and ecological impacts on the estuarine environment. In this contribution, we explore the morphological evolution in tide-dominated estuaries by means of a novel analytical approach using the observed water levels along the channel. The method could serve as a useful tool to understand the evolution of estuarine morphology.
Huayang Cai, Hubert H. G. Savenije, Erwan Garel, Xianyi Zhang, Leicheng Guo, Min Zhang, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2779–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2779-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2779-2019, 2019
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Tide–river dynamics play an essential role in large-scale river deltas as they exert a tremendous impact on delta morphodynamics, salt intrusion and deltaic ecosystems. For the first time, we illustrate that there is a critical river discharge, beyond which tidal damping is reduced with increasing river discharge, and we explore the underlying mechanism using an analytical model. The results are useful for guiding sustainable water management and sediment transport in tidal rivers.
Pedro D. Barrera Crespo, Erik Mosselman, Alessio Giardino, Anke Becker, Willem Ottevanger, Mohamed Nabi, and Mijail Arias-Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2763–2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, 2019
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Guayaquil, the commercial capital of Ecuador, is located along the Guayas River. The city is among the most vulnerable cities to future flooding ascribed to climate change. Fluvial sedimentation is seen as one of the factors contributing to flooding. This paper describes the dominant processes in the river and the effects of past interventions in the overall sediment budget. This is essential to plan and design effective mitigation measures to face the latent risk that threatens Guayaquil.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Martin Widmann, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017
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We develop a conceptual model to quantify the risk of compound events (CEs), i.e. extreme impacts to society which are driven by statistically dependent climatic variables. Based on this model we study compound floods, i.e. joint storm surge and high river level, in Ravenna (Italy). The model includes meteorological predictors which (1) provide insight into the physical processes underlying CEs, as well as into the temporal variability, and (2) allow us to statistically downscale CEs.
Soufiane Haddout, Mohammed Igouzal, and Abdellatif Maslouhi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3923–3945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3923-2016, 2016
Chiara Volta, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Sandra Arndt, and Pierre Regnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 991–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-991-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-991-2016, 2016
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A generic estuarine model is applied to three idealized tidal estuaries representing the main hydro-geometrical estuarine classes. The study provides insight into the estuarine biogeochemical dynamics, in particular the air-water CO2/sub> flux, as well as the potential response to future environmental changes and to uncertainties in model parameter values. We believe that our approach could help improving upscaling strategies to better integrate estuaries in regional/global biogeochemical studies.
M. Webber, M. T. Li, J. Chen, B. Finlayson, D. Chen, Z. Y. Chen, M. Wang, and J. Barnett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4411–4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4411-2015, 2015
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This paper demonstrates a method for calculating the probability of long-duration salt intrusions in the Yangtze Estuary and examines the impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South-North Water Transfer Project and local abstractions on that probability. The relationship between river discharge and the intensity and duration of saline intrusions is shown to be probabilistic and continuous. That probability has more than doubled under the normal operating rules for those projects.
F. M. Achete, M. van der Wegen, D. Roelvink, and B. Jaffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2837–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2837-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2837-2015, 2015
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Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) levels are important indicator for the ecology of estuaries. Observations of SSC are difficult to make, therefore we revert to coupled 2-D hydrodynamic-sediment process-based transport models to make predictions in time (seasonal and yearly) and space (meters to kilometers). This paper presents calibration/validation of SSC for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and translates SSC to turbidity in order to couple with ecology models.
J. I. A. Gisen, H. H. G. Savenije, and R. C. Nijzink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2791–2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2791-2015, 2015
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We revised the predictive equations for two calibrated parameters in salt intrusion model (the Van der Burgh coefficient K and dispersion coefficient D) using an extended database of 89 salinity profiles including 8 newly conducted salinity measurements. The revised predictive equations consist of easily measured parameters such as the geometry of estuary, tide, friction and the Richardson number. These equations are useful in obtaining the first estimate of salinity distribution in an estuary.
V. D. Vinh, S. Ouillon, T. D. Thanh, and L. V. Chu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3987–4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3987-2014, 2014
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014
L. C. Bruce, P. L. M. Cook, I. Teakle, and M. R. Hipsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1397–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1397-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1397-2014, 2014
C. Ferrarin, M. Ghezzo, G. Umgiesser, D. Tagliapietra, E. Camatti, L. Zaggia, and A. Sarretta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, 2013
T. Sun, J. Xu, and Z. F. Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 751–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-751-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-751-2013, 2013
M. Faneca Sànchez, J. L. Gunnink, E. S. van Baaren, G. H. P. Oude Essink, B. Siemon, E. Auken, W. Elderhorst, and P. G. B. de Louw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4499–4516, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4499-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4499-2012, 2012
E. F. Zhang, H. H. G. Savenije, S. L. Chen, and X. H. Mao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3327–3339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3327-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3327-2012, 2012
A. van Buuren, L. Gerrits, and G. R. Teisman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2243–2257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2243-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2243-2010, 2010
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Short summary
We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the...
