Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Oct 2021
Research article |
| 25 Oct 2021
| 25 Oct 2021
The 63-year changes in annual streamflow volumes across Europe with a focus on the Mediterranean basin
Daniele Masseroni
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy
Stefania Camici
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Alessio Cislaghi
Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy
Centre of Applied Studies for the Sustainable Management and
Protection of Mountain Areas (Ge.S.Di.Mont), University of Milan, Via Morino 8, 25048 Edolo, Brescia, Italy
Giorgio Vacchiano
Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy
Centre of Applied Studies for the Sustainable Management and
Protection of Mountain Areas (Ge.S.Di.Mont), University of Milan, Via Morino 8, 25048 Edolo, Brescia, Italy
Christian Massari
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Luca Brocca
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances will increase in the future endangering our forests and their provision of wood, protection against natural hazards and carbon sequestration. Considering the hazard to forests by wind or fire damage together with vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize high-risk forest stands. In this study we propose a new methodological approach helping with decision-making process for climate-smart forest management.
Søren Julsgaard Kragh, Jacopo Dari, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 441–457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a comparison of methodologies to quantify irrigation to enhance regional irrigation estimates. To evaluate the methodologies, we compared various approaches to quantify irrigation using soil moisture, evapotranspiration, or both within a novel baseline framework, together with irrigation estimates from other studies. We show that the synergy from using two equally important components in a joint approach within a baseline framework yields better irrigation estimates.
Ling Zhang, Yanhua Xie, Xiufang Zhu, Qimin Ma, and Luca Brocca
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-2, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This study outlines the development of annual maps of irrigated cropland in China from 2000 to 2020 (CIrrMap250) by integrating remote sensing data, irrigated area statistics and surveys, and irrigation suitability map. CIrrMap250 showed superior performance than the existing products. CIrrMap250 revealed that China’s irrigated area has increased by about 180,000 km2 from 2000 to 2020, with the majority being water-unsustainable and occurring in regions facing high to severe water stress.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.
Jacopo Dari, Paolo Filippucci, and Luca Brocca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2479, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed the first operational system (10-day latency) for estimating irrigation water use from accessible satellite and reanalysis data. As a proof of concept, the method has been implemented over an irrigated area fed by the Kakhovka reservoir, in Ukraine, collapsed on June 6, 2023. Estimates in the period 2015–2023 reveal that, as expected, the irrigation season of 2023 was characterized by the lowest amounts.
Jacopo Dari, Luca Brocca, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Silvia Barbetta, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Vahid Freeman, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, David Bretreger, and Espen Volden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1555–1575, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation is the main source of global freshwater consumption. Despite this, a detailed knowledge of irrigation dynamics (i.e., timing, extent of irrigated areas, and amounts of water used) are generally lacking worldwide. Satellites represent a useful tool to fill this knowledge gap and monitor irrigation water from space. In this study, three regional-scale and high-resolution (1 and 6 km) products of irrigation amounts estimated by inverting the satellite soil moisture signals are presented.
Kunlong He, Wei Zhao, Luca Brocca, and Pere Quintana-Seguí
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 169–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a soil moisture-based precipitation downscaling (SMPD) method for spatially downscaling the GPM daily precipitation product by exploiting the connection between surface soil moisture and precipitation according to the soil water balance equation. Based on this physical method, the spatial resolution of the daily precipitation product was downscaled to 1 km and the SMPD method shows good potential for the development of the high-resolution precipitation product.
Riccardo Rigon, Giuseppe Formetta, Marialaura Bancheri, Niccolò Tubini, Concetta D'Amato, Olaf David, and Christian Massari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4773–4800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The
Digital Earth(DE) metaphor is very useful for both end users and hydrological modelers. We analyse different categories of models, with the view of making them part of a Digital eARth Twin Hydrology system (called DARTH). We also stress the idea that DARTHs are not models in and of themselves, rather they need to be built on an appropriate information technology infrastructure. It is remarked that DARTHs have to, by construction, support the open-science movement and its ideas.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Stefania Camici, Gabriele Giuliani, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Hassan Hashemi Farahani, Nico Sneeuw, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6935–6956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6935-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an innovative approach, STREAM (SaTellite-based Runoff Evaluation And Mapping), to derive daily river discharge and runoff estimates from satellite observations of soil moisture, precipitation, and terrestrial total water storage anomalies. Potentially useful for multiple operational and scientific applications, the added value of the STREAM approach is the ability to increase knowledge on the natural processes, human activities, and their interactions on the land.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Francesco Avanzi, Fabio Delogu, Simone Gabellani, Giulia Bruno, Lorenzo Campo, Andrea Libertino, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Dominik Rains, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Huan Wu, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3921–3939, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows advances in high-resolution satellite data for hydrology. We performed hydrological simulations for the Po River basin using various satellite products, including precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, and snow depth. Evaporation and snow depth improved a simulation based on high-quality ground observations. Interestingly, a model calibration relying on satellite data skillfully reproduces observed discharges, paving the way to satellite-driven hydrological applications.
Paolo Filippucci, Luca Brocca, Raphael Quast, Luca Ciabatta, Carla Saltalippi, Wolfgang Wagner, and Angelica Tarpanelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2481–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2481-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution (1 km) rainfall product with 10–30 d temporal resolution was obtained starting from SM data from Sentinel-1. Good performances are achieved using observed data (gauge and radar) over the Po River Valley, Italy, as a benchmark. The comparison with a product characterized by lower spatial resolution (25 km) highlights areas where the high spatial resolution of Sentinel-1 has great benefits. Possible applications include water management, agriculture and index-based insurances.
Christian Massari, Francesco Avanzi, Giulia Bruno, Simone Gabellani, Daniele Penna, and Stefania Camici
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1527–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1527-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts are a creeping disaster, meaning that their onset, duration and recovery are challenging to monitor and forecast. Here, we provide further evidence of an additional challenge of droughts, i.e. the fact that the deficit in water supply during droughts is generally much more than expected based on the observed decline in precipitation. At a European scale we explain this with enhanced evapotranspiration, sustained by higher atmospheric demand for moisture during such dry periods.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Luca Ciabatta, Luca Brocca, Giriraj Amarnath, and Silvia Peruccacci
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3267–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3267-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite and rain gauge data are tested to predict landslides in India, where the annual toll of human lives and loss of property urgently demands the implementation of strategies to prevent geo-hydrological instability. For this purpose, we calculated empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation. The validation of thresholds showed that satellite-based rainfall data perform better than ground-based data, and the best performance is obtained with an hourly temporal resolution.
Louise Mimeau, Yves Tramblay, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Stefania Camici, and Pascal Finaud-Guyot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture is a key variable related to droughts and flood genesis, but little is known about the evolution of soil moisture under climate change. Here, using a simulation approach, we show that changes in soil moisture are driven by changes in precipitation intermittence rather than changes in precipitation intensity or in temperature.
Stefania Camici, Christian Massari, Luca Ciabatta, Ivan Marchesini, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4869–4885, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper performs the most comprehensive European-scale evaluation to date of satellite rainfall products for river flow prediction. In doing so, how errors transfer from satellite-based rainfall products into flood simulation is investigated in depth and, for the first time, quantitative guidelines on the use of these products for hydrological applications are provided. This result can represent a keystone in the use of satellite rainfall products, especially in data-scarce regions.
El Mahdi El Khalki, Yves Tramblay, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Vincent Simonneaux, Simon Gascoin, and Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2591–2607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In North Africa, the vulnerability to floods is high, and there is a need to improve the flood-forecasting systems. Remote-sensing and reanalysis data can palliate the lack of in situ measurements, in particular for soil moisture, which is a crucial parameter to consider when modeling floods. In this study we provide an evaluation of recent globally available soil moisture products for flood modeling in Morocco.
Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Thierry Pellarin, Gab Abramowitz, Paolo Filippucci, Luca Ciabatta, Viviana Maggioni, Yann Kerr, and Diego Fernandez Prieto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2687–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2687-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rain gauges are unevenly spaced around the world with extremely low gauge density over places like Africa and South America. Here, water-related problems like floods, drought and famine are particularly severe and able to cause fatalities, migration and diseases. We have developed a rainfall dataset that exploits the synergies between rainfall and soil moisture to provide accurate rainfall observations which can be used to face these problems.
Luca Brocca, Paolo Filippucci, Sebastian Hahn, Luca Ciabatta, Christian Massari, Stefania Camici, Lothar Schüller, Bojan Bojkov, and Wolfgang Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1583–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
SM2RAIN–ASCAT is a new 12-year (2007–2018) global-scale rainfall dataset obtained by applying the SM2RAIN algorithm to ASCAT soil moisture data. The dataset has a spatiotemporal sampling resolution of 12.5 km and 1 d. Results show that the new dataset performs particularly well in Africa and South America, i.e. in the continents in which ground observations are scarce and the need for satellite rainfall data is high. SM2RAIN–ASCAT is available at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.340556.
Felix Zaussinger, Wouter Dorigo, Alexander Gruber, Angelica Tarpanelli, Paolo Filippucci, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 897–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-897-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-897-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
About 70 % of global freshwater is consumed by irrigation. Yet, policy-relevant estimates of irrigation water use (IWU) are virtually lacking at regional to global scales. To bridge this gap, we develop a method for quantifying IWU from a combination of state-of-the-art remotely sensed and modeled soil moisture products and apply it over the United States for the period 2013–2016. Overall, our estimates agree well with reference data on irrigated area and irrigation water withdrawals.
Victor Pellet, Filipe Aires, Simon Munier, Diego Fernández Prieto, Gabriel Jordá, Wouter Arnoud Dorigo, Jan Polcher, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 465–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-465-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-465-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study is an effort for a better understanding and quantification of the water cycle and related processes in the Mediterranean region, by dealing with satellite products and their uncertainties. The aims of the paper are 3-fold: (1) developing methods with hydrological constraints to integrate all the datasets, (2) giving the full picture of the Mediterranean WC, and (3) building a model-independent database that can evaluate the numerous regional climate models (RCMs) for this region.
Giorgio Vacchiano, Cristiano Foderi, Roberta Berretti, Enrico Marchi, and Renzo Motta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 935–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-935-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-935-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show that wildland fires in an Italian alpine region are ignited mainly by human negligence. 30 % of fires stars in agricultural areas, 24 % in forests. Lightning plays a role in 10 % of the cases, but its importance has been increasing recently. Areas under hot, dry climate are more prone to fire. Cattle grazing reduces the fuel for winter fires, but increases ignition risk in summer. The maps of fire risk that we produce can help to support fire prevention and ecosystem management.
Luca Ciabatta, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Alexander Gruber, Christoph Reimer, Sebastian Hahn, Christoph Paulik, Wouter Dorigo, Richard Kidd, and Wolfgang Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 267–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, rainfall is estimated starting from satellite soil moisture observation on a global scale, using the ESA CCI soil moisture datasets. The new obtained rainfall product has proven to correctly identify rainfall events, showing performance sometimes higher than those obtained by using classical rainfall estimation approaches.
Hylke E. Beck, Noemi Vergopolan, Ming Pan, Vincenzo Levizzani, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Graham P. Weedon, Luca Brocca, Florian Pappenberger, George J. Huffman, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6201–6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study represents the most comprehensive global-scale precipitation dataset evaluation to date. We evaluated 13 uncorrected precipitation datasets using precipitation observations from 76 086 gauges, and 9 gauge-corrected ones using hydrological modeling for 9053 catchments. Our results highlight large differences in estimation accuracy, and hence, the importance of precipitation dataset selection in both research and operational applications.
Christian Massari, Wade Crow, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4347–4361, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4347-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4347-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The paper explores a method for the assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without relying on ground-based observations. Thanks to this method, different global correlation maps are obtained (for the first time without relying on a benchmark dataset) for some of the most used globally available rainfall products. This is central for hydroclimatic studies within data-scarce regions, where ground observations are scarce to evaluate the relative quality of a rainfall product
Xiaodong Gao, Xining Zhao, Luca Brocca, Gaopeng Huo, Ting Lv, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-292, 2017
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
Profile soil moisture is key state variable in the Critical Zone ecology and hydrology. This paper sucessfully used a simple statistical method, the cumulative distribution frequency (CDF) matching method for the first time, to predict profile soil moisture (0–100 cm) from surface measurement (5 cm). The findings here can provide insights into profile soil moisture estimation from remote sensing moisture products.
Wuletawu Abera, Giuseppe Formetta, Luca Brocca, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3145–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study documents a state-of-the-art estimation of the water budget (rainfall, evapotranspiration, discharge, and soil and groundwater storage) components for the Upper Blue Nile river. The budget uses various JGrass-NewAGE components, satellite data and all ground measurements available. The analysis shows that precipitation of the basin is 1360 ± 230 mm per year. Evapotranspiration accounts for 56 %, runoff is 33 %, and storage varies from minus 10 % to plus 17 % of the annual water budget.
Xiaodong Gao, Xining Zhao, Luca Brocca, Ting Lv, Gaopeng Huo, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-617, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-617, 2016
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
We built observation operators by the CDF matching method. Two-year duration was identified as the optimal data length in prediction accuracy. Application in different climates in USA showed these operators are a robust statistical tool for upscaling soil moisture from surface to profile by using exponential filter as a reference method. The findings here may be applied in the prediction of profile soil moisture from surface measurements via remote sensing techniques.
F. Todisco, L. Brocca, L. F. Termite, and W. Wagner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3845–3856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3845-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3845-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new formulation of USLE, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), that directly incorporates soil moisture information. SM4E is applied here by using modeled data and satellite observations obtained from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). SM4E is found to outperform USLE and USLE-MM models in silty–clay soil in central Italy. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying SM4E for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.
S. Manfreda, L. Brocca, T. Moramarco, F. Melone, and J. Sheffield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1199–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1199-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1199-2014, 2014
C. Massari, L. Brocca, S. Barbetta, C. Papathanasiou, M. Mimikou, and T. Moramarco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 839–853, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-839-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-839-2014, 2014
L. Brocca, S. Liersch, F. Melone, T. Moramarco, and M. Volk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3159–3169, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3159-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3159-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Multi-variable parameter estimation for a global hydrological model: Comparison and evaluation of three ensemble-based calibration methods for the Mississippi River basin
Information content of soil hydrology in a west Amazon watershed as informed by GRACE
Diagnostic evaluation of river discharge into the Arctic Ocean and its impact on oceanic volume transports
Multivariable evaluation of land surface processes in forced and coupled modes reveals new error sources to the simulated water cycle in the IPSL (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace) climate model
Implications of model selection: a comparison of publicly available, conterminous US-extent hydrologic component estimates
Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation
A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project
Assessment of precipitation error propagation in multi-model global water resource reanalysis
The potential of global reanalysis datasets in identifying flood events in Southern Africa
Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model
Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century
Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?
Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario
Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use
Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach
Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: the role of model parameter uncertainty
Sensitivity of simulated global-scale freshwater fluxes and storages to input data, hydrological model structure, human water use and calibration
Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review
Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis
Disinformative data in large-scale hydrological modelling
The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought
Calibration and evaluation of a semi-distributed watershed model of Sub-Saharan Africa using GRACE data
Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias
Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain
A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models
Error characterisation of global active and passive microwave soil moisture datasets
Assessment of soil moisture fields from imperfect climate models with uncertain satellite observations
Petra Döll, H. M. Mehedi Hasan, Kerstin Schulze, Helena Gerdener, Lara Börger, Somayeh Shadkam, Sebastian Ackermann, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Hannes Müller Schmied, Andreas Güntner, and Jürgen Kusche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-18, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
For the pilot region Mississippi River basin, we explored three model calibration approaches for using both streamflow and total water storage anomaly (TWSA) observations to adjust parameter sets of a global hydrological model. We developed a method for considering the observation uncertainties to determine not only optimal but also behavioral parameter sets and model output uncertainty. Model performance was improved but trade-offs between optimal fits to streamflow and TWSA may be large.
Elias C. Massoud, A. Anthony Bloom, Marcos Longo, John T. Reager, Paul A. Levine, and John R. Worden
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1407–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The water balance on river basin scales depends on a number of soil physical processes. Gaining information on these quantities using observations is a key step toward improving the skill of land surface hydrology models. In this study, we use data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA-GRACE) to inform and constrain these hydrologic processes. We show that our model is able to simulate the land hydrologic cycle for a watershed in the Amazon from January 2003 to December 2012.
Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, Vanessa Seitner, Ervin Zsoter, Hao Zuo, and Leopold Haimberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 279–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-279-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate Arctic river discharge using in situ observations and state-of-the-art reanalyses, inter alia the most recent Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) river discharge reanalysis version 3.1. Furthermore, we combine reanalysis data, in situ observations, ocean reanalyses, and satellite data and use a Lagrangian optimization scheme to close the Arctic's volume budget on annual and seasonal scales, resulting in one reliable and up-to-date estimate of every volume budget term.
Hiroki Mizuochi, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, Josefine Ghattas, Amen Al-Yaari, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Vladislav Bastrikov, Philippe Peylin, Fabienne Maignan, and Nicolas Vuichard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2199–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, 2021
Samuel Saxe, William Farmer, Jessica Driscoll, and Terri S. Hogue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1529–1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare simulated values from 47 models estimating surface water over the USA. Results show that model uncertainty is substantial over much of the conterminous USA and especially high in the west. Applying the studied models to a simple water accounting equation shows that model selection can significantly affect research results. This paper concludes that multimodel ensembles help to best represent uncertainty in conclusions and suggest targeted research efforts in arid regions.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Toby R. Marthews, Eleanor M. Blyth, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-75-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-75-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change impact modellers can only act on predictions of the occurrence of an extreme event in the Earth system if they know the uncertainty in that prediction and how uncertainty is attributable to different model components. Using eartH2Observe data, we quantify the balance between different sources of uncertainty in global evapotranspiration and runoff, making a crucial contribution to understanding the spatial distribution of water resources allocation deficiencies.
Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Jan Polcher, Clément Albergel, Emanuel Dutra, Gabriel Fink, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and Simon Munier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1973–1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1973-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1973-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the propagation of precipitation uncertainty, and its interaction with hydrologic modeling, in global water resource reanalysis. Analysis is based on ensemble hydrologic simulations for a period of 11 years based on six global hydrologic models and five precipitation datasets. Results show that uncertainties in the model simulations are attributed to both uncertainty in precipitation forcing and the model structure.
Gaby J. Gründemann, Micha Werner, and Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4667–4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4667-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4667-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding in vulnerable and data-sparse regions such as the Limpopo basin in Southern Africa is a key concern. Data available to local flood managers are often limited, inconsistent or asymmetrically distributed. We demonstrate that freely available global datasets are well suited to provide essential information. Despite the poor performance of simulated discharges, these datasets hold potential in identifying damaging flood events, particularly for higher-resolution datasets and larger basins.
Emiliano Gelati, Bertrand Decharme, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Marie Minvielle, Jan Polcher, David Fairbairn, and Graham P. Weedon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2091–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We compared land surface model simulations forced by several meteorological datasets with observations over the Euro-Mediterranean area, for the 1979–2012 period. Precipitation was the most uncertain forcing variable. The impacts of forcing uncertainty were larger on the mean and standard deviation rather than the timing, shape and inter-annual variability of simulated discharge. Simulated leaf area index and surface soil moisture were relatively insensitive to these uncertainties.
Behzad Asadieh and Nir Y. Krakauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5863–5874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-model analysis of global streamflow extremes for the 20th and 21st centuries under two warming scenarios is performed. About 37 and 43 % of global land areas show potential for increases in flood and drought events. Nearly 10 % of global land areas, holding around 30 % of world’s population, reflect a potentially worsening hazard of flood and drought. A significant increase in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and decrease in subtropical arid areas, is projected.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Holger Lange, Miguel D. Mahecha, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
Seungwoo Chang, Wendy D. Graham, Syewoon Hwang, and Rafael Muñoz-Carpena
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3245-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Projecting water deficit depends on how researchers combine possible future climate scenarios such as general circulation models (GCMs), evapotranspiration estimation method (ET), and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Using global sensitivity analysis, we found the relative contribution of each of these factors to projecting future water deficit and the choice of ET estimation method are as important as the choice of GCM, and greenhouse gas emission scenario is less influential than the others.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2877–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The assessment of water balance components of the global land surface by means of hydrological models is affected by large uncertainties, in particular related to meteorological forcing. We analyze the effect of five state-of-the-art forcings on water balance components at different spatial and temporal scales modeled with WaterGAP. Furthermore, the dominant effect (precipitation/human alteration) for long-term changes in river discharge is assessed.
Dave MacLeod, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, and Antje Weisheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2737–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture memory is a key aspect of seasonal climate predictions, through feedback between the land surface and the atmosphere. Estimates have been made of the length of soil moisture memory; however, we show here how estimates of memory show large variation with uncertain model parameters. Explicit representation of model uncertainty may then improve the realism of simulations and seasonal climate forecasts.
N. W. Chaney, J. D. Herman, P. M. Reed, and E. F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3239–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface modeling is playing an increasing role in global monitoring and prediction of extreme hydrologic events. However, uncertainties in parameter identifiability limit the reliability of model predictions. This study makes use of petascale computing to perform a comprehensive evaluation of land surface modeling for global flood and drought monitoring and suggests paths forward to overcome the challenges posed by parameter uncertainty.
H. Müller Schmied, S. Eisner, D. Franz, M. Wattenbach, F. T. Portmann, M. Flörke, and P. Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3511–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, 2014
P. Roudier, A. Ducharne, and L. Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2789–2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014, 2014
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
A. Kauffeldt, S. Halldin, A. Rodhe, C.-Y. Xu, and I. K. Westerberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2845–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, 2013
I. H. Taylor, E. Burke, L. McColl, P. D. Falloon, G. R. Harris, and D. McNeall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, 2013
H. Xie, L. Longuevergne, C. Ringler, and B. R. Scanlon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3083-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3083-2012, 2012
F. Sienz, O. Bothe, and K. Fraedrich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2143–2157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2143-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2143-2012, 2012
D. González-Zeas, L. Garrote, A. Iglesias, and A. Sordo-Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1709–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1709-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1709-2012, 2012
S. N. Gosling, R. G. Taylor, N. W. Arnell, and M. C. Todd
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 279–294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-279-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-279-2011, 2011
W. A. Dorigo, K. Scipal, R. M. Parinussa, Y. Y. Liu, W. Wagner, R. A. M. de Jeu, and V. Naeimi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2605–2616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2605-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2605-2010, 2010
G. Schumann, D. J. Lunt, P. J. Valdes, R. A. M. de Jeu, K. Scipal, and P. D. Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1545–1553, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1545-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1545-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Alexandersson, H.: A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data, J. Climatol., 6, 661–675, 1986.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming
increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Arnell, N. W.: A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geographic domain, J. Hydrol., 217, 314–335, 1999.
Avanzi, F., Rungee, J., Maurer, T., Bales, R., Ma, Q., Glaser, S., and Conklin, M.: Climate elasticity of evapotranspiration shifts the water balance of Mediterranean climates during multi-year droughts, Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4317-2020, 2020.
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.: Heavy precipitation in a changing
climate: does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1165–1172, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062588, 2015.
Bard, A., Renard, B., Lang, M., Giuntoli, I., Korck, J., Koboltschnig, G.,
Janža, M., d'Amico, M., and Volken, D.: Trends in the hydrologic regime of Alpine rivers, J. Hydrol., 529, 1823–1837, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.052, 2015.
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., and Palutikof, J. P. (Eds.): Climate change and water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 2008.
Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Lun, D., Hall, J., and Blöschl, G.: Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different?, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, 2020.
Birsan, M.-V., Molnar, P., Burlando, P., and Pfaundler, M.: Streamflow trends in Switzerland, J. Hydrol., 314, 312–329, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.008, 2005.
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A.,
Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet,
E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and
Živković, N.: Changing climate both increases and decreases European
river floods, Nature, 573, 108–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6, 2019.
Bormann, H. and Pinter, N.: Trends in low flows of German rivers since 1950:
comparability of different low-flow indicators and their spatial patterns,
River Res. Appl., 33, 1191–1204, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3152, 2017.
Brocca, L., Massari, C., Pellarin, T., Filippucci, P., Ciabatta, L., Camici, S., Kerr, Y. H., and Fernández-Prieto, D.: River flow prediction in data scarce regions: soil moisture integrated satellite rainfall products outperform rain gauge observations in West Africa, Scient. Rep., 10, 1–14, 2020..
Brooks, H. E.: Severe thunderstorms and climate change, Atmos. Res., 123, 129–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002, 2013.
Buishand, T. A.: Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records, J. Hydrol., 58, 11–27, 1982.
Buishand, T. A.: Tests for detecting a shift in the mean of hydrological time series, J. Hydrol., 73, 51–69, 1984.
Burn, D. H., Hannaford, J., Hodgkins, G. A., Whitfield, P. H., Thorne, R.,
and Marsh, T.: Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic
networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 57, 1580–1593, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.728705, 2012.
Caloiero, T. and Veltri, S.: Drought assessment in the Sardinia Region (Italy) during 1922–2011 using the standardized precipitation index, Pure Appl. Geophys., 176, 925–935, 2019.
Chu, H., Wei, J., and Wu, W.: Streamflow prediction using LASSO-FCM-DBN approach based on hydro-meteorological condition classification, J. Hydrol., 580, 124253, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124253, 2020.
Dai, A., Qian, T., Trenberth, K. E., and Milliman, J. D.: Changes in continental freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004, J. Climate, 22, 2773–2792, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2592.1, 2009.
Demeterová, B. and Škoda, P.: Minimal discharges at the Slovak
riversin the period 1961–2000 at the stations of National Climate Programme,
Meteorologicky Casopis, 3, 155, 2005.
Demeterová, B. and Škoda, P.: Low flow in selected streams of
Slovakia, J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 57, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.2478/v10098-009-0006-0, 2009.
Durocher, M., Requena, A. I., Burn, D. H., and Pellerin, J.: Analysis of trends in annual streamflow to the Arctic Ocean, Hydrol. Process., 33, 1143–1151, 2019.
Fernandez-Carrillo, A., de la Fuente, D., Rivas-Gonzalez, F. W., and Franco-Nieto, A.: A Sentinel-2 unsupervised forest mask for European sites,
in: Earth Resources and Environmental Remote Sensing/GIS Applications X,
International Society for Optics and Photonics, Strasbourg, France, https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2533040, 2019.
Feyen, L. and Dankers, R.: Impact of global warming on streamflow drought in Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D17116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011438, 2009.
Fiala, T.: Statistical characteristics and trends of mean annual and monthly
discharges of Czech rivers in the period 1961–2005, J. Hydrol. Hydromech.,
56, 133–140, 2008.
Fiala, T., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., and Hladný, J.: Evolution of low flows in the Czech Republic, J. Hydrol., 393, 206–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.018, 2010.
Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., Hisdal, H., and Hannah, D. M.: Regional hydrological drought in north-western Europe: linking a new Regional Drought
Area Index with weather types, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1163–1179,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7644, 2011.
Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., James, P., Hisdal, H., and Stahl, K.:
Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in
synoptic circulation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3093–3107,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015, 2015.
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Rojas, R., Flörke, M., Wimmer, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-85-2014, 2014.
Ghiggi, G., Humphrey, V., Seneviratne, S. I., and Gudmundsson, L.: G-RUN ENSEMBLE: A Multi-Forcing Observation-Based Global Runoff Reanalysis, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028787, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028787, 2021.
Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Observation-based gridded runoff estimates for Europe (E-RUN version 1.1), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 279–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-279-2016, 2016.
Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., and Zhang, X.: Anthropogenic climate
change detected in European renewable freshwater resources, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 813–816, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3416, 2017.
Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., VOß, F., Arnell,
N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling,
S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P.,
Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G. P., and Yeh, P.: Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 869–884, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1324.1, 2011.
Hannaford, J., Buys, G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: The influence of
decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2717–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013, 2013.
Hannah, D. M., Demuth, S., van Lanen, H. A. J., Looser, U., Prudhomme, C.,
Rees, G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Large-scale river flow archives:
importance, current status and future needs, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1191–1200, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7794, 2011.
Hisdal, H., Stahl, K., Tallaksen, L. M., and Demuth, S.: Have streamflow
droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent?, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 317–333, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.619, 2001.
Hisdal, H., Holmqvist, E., Jónsdóttir, J., Jónsson, P., Järvet, A., Lindström, G., Kolcova, T., Kriauciuniene, J., Kuusisto,
E., and Lizuma, L.: Climate change signals in streamflow data in the Nordic
and Baltic region, edited by: Heinonen, M., Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate and Water, Helsinki, Finland, 182–187, 2007.
Hodgkins, G. A., Whitfield, P. H., Burn, D. H., Hannaford, J., Renard, B.,
Stahl, K., Fleig, A. K., Madsen, H., Mediero, L., Korhonen, J., Murphy, C.,
and Wilson, D.: Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods
across North America and Europe, J. Hydrol., 552, 704–717, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.027, 2017.
Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P.: Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 59, 1117–1134, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979, 2014.
Kendall, M. G.: Multivariate analysis, Griffin, London, 1975.
Khaliq, M. N., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., Gachon, P., Sushama, L., and St-Hilaire,
A.: Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers, J. Hydrol., 368, 117–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.035, 2009.
Kulkarni, A. and von Storch, H.: Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of
serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend, Meteorol. Z., 4, 82–85, 1995.
Kundzewicz, Z. W. and Robson, A. J.: Change detection in hydrological records: a review of the methodology, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49, 7–19, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.1.7.53993, 2004.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Graczyk, D., Maurer, T., Pińskwar, I., Radziejewski,
M., Svensson, C., and Szwed, M.: Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 50, 5, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.2005.50.5.797, 2005.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Hartmann, H., Duethmann, D., Wortmann, M., Huang, S., Su, B., Jiang, T., and Krysanova, V.: Analysis of changes in climate and river discharge with focus on seasonal runoff predictability in the Aksu River Basin, Environ. Earth Sci., 73, 501–516, 2015.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Huang, J., Pinskwar, I., Su, B., Szwed, M., and Jiang, T.: Climate variability and floods in China – A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 211, 103434, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103434, 2020.
Laizé, C. L. R. and Hannah, D. M.: Modification of climate–river flow
associations by basin properties, J. Hydrol., 389, 186–204,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.048, 2010.
Lehner, B., Döll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., and Kaspar, F.: Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis, Climatic Change, 75, 273–299, 2006.
Lobanova, A., Liersch, S., Nunes, J. P., Didovets, I., Stagl, J., Huang, S., Koch, del Rocío Rivas López, M., Fox Maule, C., Hattermann, F., and Krysanova, V.: Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins, J. Hydrol.: Re. Stud., 18, 15–30, 2018.
Madsen, H., Lawrence, D., Lang, M., Martinkova, M., and Kjeldsen, T. R.:
Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe, J. Hydrol., 519, 3634–3650,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.003, 2014.
Manabe, S., Wetherald, R. T., Milly, P. C. D., Delworth, T. L., and Stouffer, R. J.: Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling
experiment, Climatic Change, 64, 59–76, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024674.37725.ca, 2004.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945.
Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., and Granados, A.: Detection and
attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain,
J. Hydrol., 517, 1072–1088, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.040, 2014.
Milliman, J. D., Farnsworth, K. L., Jones, P. D., Xu, K. H., and Smith, L. C.: Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951–2000, Global Planet. Change, 62, 187–194,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.001, 2008.
Milly, P. C. D., Dunne, K. A., and Vecchia, A. V.: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438,
347–350, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04312, 2005.
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., and Jones, P. D.: Quantifying
uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of
observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017187, 2012.
Murphy, C., Harrigan, S., Hall, J., and Wilby, R. L.: Climate-driven trends
in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 58, 755–772, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.782407, 2013.
Orlowsky, B., Hoekstra, A. Y., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Today's virtual water consumption and trade under future water scarcity, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 074007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074007, 2014.
Pandžić, K. and Trninić, D.: Principal component analysis of a
river basin discharge and precipitation anomaly fields associated with the
global circulation, J. Hydrol., 132, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(92)90185-X, 1992.
Pellicciotti, F., Bauder, A., and Parola, M.: Effect of glaciers on streamflow trends in the Swiss Alps, Water Resour. Res., 46, 2009WR009039,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR009039, 2010.
Peña-Angulo, D., Nadal-Romero, E., González-Hidalgo, J. C., Albaladejo, J., Andreu, V., Bagarello, V., Barhi, H., Batalla, R. J., Bernal, S., Bienes, R., Campo, J., Campo-Bescós, M. A., Canatario-Duarte, A., Cantón, Y., Casali, J., Castillo, V., Cerdà, A., Cheggour, A., Cid, P., Cortesi, N., Desir, G., Díaz-Pereira, E., Espigares, T., Estrany, J., Fernández-Raga, M., Ferreira, C. S. S., Ferro, V., Gallart, F., Giménez, R., Gimeno, E., Gómez, J. A., Gómez-Gutiérrez, A., Gómez-Macpherson, H., González-Pelayo, O., Hueso-González, P., Kairis, O., Karatzas, G. P., Klotz, S., Kosmas, C., Lana-Renault, N., Lasanta, T., Latron, J., Lázaro, R., Le Bissonnais, Y., Le Bouteiller, C., Licciardello, F., López-Tarazón, J. A., Lucía, A., Marín, C., Marqués, M. J., Martínez-Fernández, J., Martínez-Mena, M., Martínez-Murillo, J. F., Mateos, L., Mathys, N., Merino-Martín, L., Moreno-de las Heras, M., Moustakas, N., Nicolau, J. M., Novara, A., Pampalone, V., Raclot, D., Rodríguez-Blanco, M. L., Rodrigo-Comino, J., Romero-Díaz, A., Roose, E., Rubio, J. L., Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D., Schnabel, S., Senciales-González, J. M., Simonneaux, V., Solé-Benet, A., Taguas, E. V., Taboada-Castro, M. M., Taboada-Castro, M. T., Todisco, F., Úbeda, X., Varouchakis, E. A., Vericat, D., Wittenberg, L., and Zabaleta, A., and Zorn, M.: Spatial variability of the relationships of runoff and sediment yield with weather types throughout the Mediterranean basin, J. Hydrol., 571, 390–405, 2019.
Pettitt, A. N.: A non‐parametric approach to the change‐point problem, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. C, 28, 126–135, 1979.
Piniewski, M., Marcinkowski, P., and Kundzewicz, Z. W.: Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland, Acta Geophys., 66, 347–360, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0116-3, 2018.
Renard, B., Lang, M., Bois, P., Dupeyrat, A., Mestre, O., Niel, H., Sauquet,
E., Prudhomme, C., Parey, S., Paquet, E., Neppel, L., and Gailhard, J.:
Regional methods for trend detection: Assessing field significance and
regional consistency, Water Resour. Res., 44, W08419, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006268, 2008.
Rogger, M., Agnoletti, M., Alaoui, A., Bathurst, J. C., Bodner, G., Borga, M., Chaplot, V., Gallart, F., Glatzel, G., Hall, J., Holden, J., Holko, L.,
Horn, R., Kiss, A., Kohnová, S., Leitinger, G., Lennartz, B., Parajka,
J., Perdigão, R., Peth, S., Plavcová, L., Quinton, J. N., Robinson,
M., Salinas, J. L., Santoro, A., Szolgay, J., Tron, S., van den Akker, J. J.
H., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Land use change impacts on floods at
the catchment scale: challenges and opportunities for future research, Water
Resour. Res., 53, 5209–5219, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020723, 2017.
Schmocker-Fackel, P. and Naef, F.: More frequent flooding? Changes in flood
frequency in Switzerland since 1850, J. Hydrol., 381, 1–8,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.022, 2010.
Sen, P. K.: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's Tau,
J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389, 1968.
Shorthouse, C. A. and Arnell, N. W.: Spatial and temporal variability in European river flows and the North Atlantic oscillation, in: FRIEND'97 – Regional Hydrology: Concepts and Models for Sustainable Water Resource
Management, Proceedings of the Postojna Conference, September–October 1997, Slovenia, 77–168, 1997.
Solomon, S., Manning, M., Marquis, M., and Qin, D.: Climate change 2007 – the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fourth
assessment report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
Sommer, C., Malz, P., Seehaus, T. C., Lippl, S., Zemp, M., and Braun, M. H.:
Rapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the
early 21st century, Nat. Commun., 11, 3209, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16818-0, 2020.
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Vogt, J., and Barbosa, P.: European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach, Global Planet. Change, 127, 50–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.012, 2015.
Stagge, J. H., Kingston, D. G., Tallaksen, L. M., and Hannah, D. M.: Observed drought indices show increasing divergence across Europe, Sci. Rep., 7, 14045, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14283-2, 2017.
Stahl, K., Hisdal, H., Hannaford, J., and Tallaksen, L.: Streamflow trends
in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2367–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010, 2010.
Steirou, E., Gerlitz, L., Apel, H., and Merz, B.: Links between large-scale
circulation patterns and streamflow in Central Europe: A review, J. Hydrol., 549, 484–500, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.003, 2017.
Teuling, A. J., Van Loon, A. F., Seneviratne, S. I., Lehner, I., Aubinet, M., Heinesch, B., Bernhofer, C., Grünwald, T., Prasse, H., and Spank, U.: Evapotranspiration amplifies European summer drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2071–2075, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50495, 2013.
Teuling, A. J., de Badts, E. A. G., Jansen, F. A., Fuchs, R., Buitink, J.,
Hoek van Dijke, A. J., and Sterling, S. M.: Climate change, reforestation/afforestation, and urbanization impacts on evapotranspiration
and streamflow in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3631–3652,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, 2019.
Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie Van Wetenschappen, Amsterdam,
the Netherlands, 16 pp., 1950.
Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Marx, A., Pan, M., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Zink, M.: Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 014003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35, 2018.
Urbonas, B. and Stahre, P.: Stormwater: Best management practices and
detention for water quality, drainage, and CSO management, available at: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0138474923 (last access: 22 October 2021), 1993.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J.-I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, J. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R., Coelho, F., and Espejo, F.: Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 044001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001, 2014.
Viglione, A., Borga, M., Balabanis, P., and Blöschl, G.: Barriers to the
exchange of hydrometeorological data in Europe: Results from a survey and
implications for data policy, J. Hydrol., 394, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.023, 2010.
Von Neumann, J.: Distribution of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance, Ann. Math. Stat., 12, 367–395, 1941.
von Storch, H.: Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research, in:
Analysis of climate variability – Applications of statistical techniques,
Springer Verlag, 334 pp., 1995.
Willems, P.: Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe, Climatic Change, 120, 931–944, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0837-x, 2013.
Yue, S. and Pilon, P.: A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann-Kendall and bootstrap tests for trend detection, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49,
21–37, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.1.21.53996, 2004.
Yue, S. and Wang, C.: The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series, Water Resour. Manage., 18, 201–218, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60, 2004.
Yue, S., Pilon, P., and Phinney, B.: Canadian streamflow trend detection:
impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 51–63, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.51.43478, 2003.
Zeng, Z., Piao, S., Lin, X., Yin, G., Peng, S., Ciais, P., and Myneni, R. B.: Global evapotranspiration over the past three decades: estimation based on the water balance equation combined with empirical models, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014026, 2012.
Short summary
We evaluate 63 years of changes in annual streamflow volume across Europe, using a data set of more than 3000 stations, with a special focus on the Mediterranean basin. The results show decreasing (increasing) volumes in the southern (northern) regions. These trends are strongly consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation.
We evaluate 63 years of changes in annual streamflow volume across Europe, using a data set of...
