Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Oct 2021
Research article |
| 25 Oct 2021
| 25 Oct 2021
The 63-year changes in annual streamflow volumes across Europe with a focus on the Mediterranean basin
Daniele Masseroni
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy
Stefania Camici
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Alessio Cislaghi
Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy
Centre of Applied Studies for the Sustainable Management and
Protection of Mountain Areas (Ge.S.Di.Mont), University of Milan, Via Morino 8, 25048 Edolo, Brescia, Italy
Giorgio Vacchiano
Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy
Centre of Applied Studies for the Sustainable Management and
Protection of Mountain Areas (Ge.S.Di.Mont), University of Milan, Via Morino 8, 25048 Edolo, Brescia, Italy
Christian Massari
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Luca Brocca
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Jaime Gaona, Davide Bavera, Guido Fioravanti, Sebastian Hahn, Pietro Stradiotti, Paolo Filippucci, Stefania Camici, Luca Ciabatta, Hamidreza Mosaffa, Silvia Puca, Nicoletta Roberto, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3865–3888, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3865-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3865-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture is crucial for the water cycle since it is at the front line of drought. Satellite, model and in situ data help identify soil moisture stress but are challenged by data uncertainties. This study evaluates trends and data coherence of common active/passive microwave sensors and model-based soil moisture data against in situ stations across Europe from 2007 to 2022. Data reliability is increasing, but combining data types improves soil moisture monitoring capabilities.
Louise Busschaert, Michel Bechtold, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Dirk Raes, Sujay V. Kumar, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2550, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates irrigation in the Po Valley using AquaCrop and Noah-MP models with sprinkler irrigation. Noah-MP shows higher annual rates than AquaCrop due to more water losses. After adjusting, both align with reported irrigation ranges (500–600 mm/yr). Soil moisture estimates from both models match satellite data, though both have limitations in vegetation and evapotranspiration modeling. The study emphasizes the need for observations to improve irrigation estimates.
Paolo Filippucci, Luca Brocca, Luca Ciabatta, Hamidreza Mosaffa, Francesco Avanzi, and Christian Massari
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-156, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-156, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate rainfall data is essential, yet measuring daily precipitation worldwide is challenging. This research presents HYdroclimatic PERformance-enhanced Precipitation (HYPER-P), a dataset combining satellite, ground, and reanalysis data to estimate precipitation at a 1 km scale from 2000 to 2023. HYPER-P improves accuracy, especially in areas with few rain gauges. This dataset supports scientists and decision-makers in understanding and managing water resources more effectively.
Ather Abbas, Yuan Yang, Ming Pan, Yves Tramblay, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Florian Pappenberger, Jong Cheol Pyo, Dapeng Feng, George Huffman, Phu Nguyen, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Tan Jackson, and Hylke E. Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4194, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study evaluated 23 precipitation datasets using a hydrological model at global scale to assess their suitability and accuracy. We found that MSWEP V2.8 excels due to its ability to integrate data from multiple sources, while others, such as IMERG and JRA-3Q, demonstrated strong regional performances. This research assists in selecting the appropriate dataset for applications in water resource management, hazard assessment, agriculture, and environmental monitoring.
Ling Zhang, Yanhua Xie, Xiufang Zhu, Qimin Ma, and Luca Brocca
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5207–5226, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presented new annual maps of irrigated cropland in China from 2000 to 2020 (CIrrMap250). These maps were developed by integrating remote sensing data, irrigation statistics and surveys, and an irrigation suitability map. CIrrMap250 achieved high accuracy and outperformed currently available products. The new irrigation maps revealed a clear expansion of China’s irrigation area, with the majority (61%) occurring in the water-unsustainable regions facing severe to extreme water stress.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Louise Busschaert, Michel Bechtold, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Dirk Raes, Sujay V. Kumar, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4974019, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4974019, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates irrigation in the Po Valley using AquaCrop and Noah-MP models with sprinkler irrigation. Noah-MP shows higher annual rates than AquaCrop due to more water losses. After adjusting, both align with reported irrigation ranges (500–600 mm/yr). Soil moisture estimates from both models match satellite data, though both have limitations in vegetation and evapotranspiration modeling. The study emphasizes the need for observations to improve irrigation estimates.
Jacopo Dari, Paolo Filippucci, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2651–2659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed the first operational system (10 d latency) for estimating irrigation water use from accessible satellite and reanalysis data. As a proof of concept, the method has been implemented over an irrigated area fed by the Kakhovka Reservoir, in Ukraine, which collapsed on June 6, 2023. Estimates for the period 2015–2023 reveal that, as expected, the irrigation season of 2023 was characterized by the lowest amounts of irrigation.
Søren Julsgaard Kragh, Jacopo Dari, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 441–457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a comparison of methodologies to quantify irrigation to enhance regional irrigation estimates. To evaluate the methodologies, we compared various approaches to quantify irrigation using soil moisture, evapotranspiration, or both within a novel baseline framework, together with irrigation estimates from other studies. We show that the synergy from using two equally important components in a joint approach within a baseline framework yields better irrigation estimates.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.
Jacopo Dari, Luca Brocca, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Silvia Barbetta, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Vahid Freeman, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, David Bretreger, and Espen Volden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1555–1575, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation is the main source of global freshwater consumption. Despite this, a detailed knowledge of irrigation dynamics (i.e., timing, extent of irrigated areas, and amounts of water used) are generally lacking worldwide. Satellites represent a useful tool to fill this knowledge gap and monitor irrigation water from space. In this study, three regional-scale and high-resolution (1 and 6 km) products of irrigation amounts estimated by inverting the satellite soil moisture signals are presented.
Kunlong He, Wei Zhao, Luca Brocca, and Pere Quintana-Seguí
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 169–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a soil moisture-based precipitation downscaling (SMPD) method for spatially downscaling the GPM daily precipitation product by exploiting the connection between surface soil moisture and precipitation according to the soil water balance equation. Based on this physical method, the spatial resolution of the daily precipitation product was downscaled to 1 km and the SMPD method shows good potential for the development of the high-resolution precipitation product.
Riccardo Rigon, Giuseppe Formetta, Marialaura Bancheri, Niccolò Tubini, Concetta D'Amato, Olaf David, and Christian Massari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4773–4800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The
Digital Earth(DE) metaphor is very useful for both end users and hydrological modelers. We analyse different categories of models, with the view of making them part of a Digital eARth Twin Hydrology system (called DARTH). We also stress the idea that DARTHs are not models in and of themselves, rather they need to be built on an appropriate information technology infrastructure. It is remarked that DARTHs have to, by construction, support the open-science movement and its ideas.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Stefania Camici, Gabriele Giuliani, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Hassan Hashemi Farahani, Nico Sneeuw, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6935–6956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6935-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an innovative approach, STREAM (SaTellite-based Runoff Evaluation And Mapping), to derive daily river discharge and runoff estimates from satellite observations of soil moisture, precipitation, and terrestrial total water storage anomalies. Potentially useful for multiple operational and scientific applications, the added value of the STREAM approach is the ability to increase knowledge on the natural processes, human activities, and their interactions on the land.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Francesco Avanzi, Fabio Delogu, Simone Gabellani, Giulia Bruno, Lorenzo Campo, Andrea Libertino, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Dominik Rains, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Huan Wu, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3921–3939, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows advances in high-resolution satellite data for hydrology. We performed hydrological simulations for the Po River basin using various satellite products, including precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, and snow depth. Evaporation and snow depth improved a simulation based on high-quality ground observations. Interestingly, a model calibration relying on satellite data skillfully reproduces observed discharges, paving the way to satellite-driven hydrological applications.
Paolo Filippucci, Luca Brocca, Raphael Quast, Luca Ciabatta, Carla Saltalippi, Wolfgang Wagner, and Angelica Tarpanelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2481–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2481-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution (1 km) rainfall product with 10–30 d temporal resolution was obtained starting from SM data from Sentinel-1. Good performances are achieved using observed data (gauge and radar) over the Po River Valley, Italy, as a benchmark. The comparison with a product characterized by lower spatial resolution (25 km) highlights areas where the high spatial resolution of Sentinel-1 has great benefits. Possible applications include water management, agriculture and index-based insurances.
Christian Massari, Francesco Avanzi, Giulia Bruno, Simone Gabellani, Daniele Penna, and Stefania Camici
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1527–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1527-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts are a creeping disaster, meaning that their onset, duration and recovery are challenging to monitor and forecast. Here, we provide further evidence of an additional challenge of droughts, i.e. the fact that the deficit in water supply during droughts is generally much more than expected based on the observed decline in precipitation. At a European scale we explain this with enhanced evapotranspiration, sustained by higher atmospheric demand for moisture during such dry periods.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Luca Ciabatta, Luca Brocca, Giriraj Amarnath, and Silvia Peruccacci
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3267–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3267-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite and rain gauge data are tested to predict landslides in India, where the annual toll of human lives and loss of property urgently demands the implementation of strategies to prevent geo-hydrological instability. For this purpose, we calculated empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation. The validation of thresholds showed that satellite-based rainfall data perform better than ground-based data, and the best performance is obtained with an hourly temporal resolution.
Louise Mimeau, Yves Tramblay, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Stefania Camici, and Pascal Finaud-Guyot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture is a key variable related to droughts and flood genesis, but little is known about the evolution of soil moisture under climate change. Here, using a simulation approach, we show that changes in soil moisture are driven by changes in precipitation intermittence rather than changes in precipitation intensity or in temperature.
Stefania Camici, Christian Massari, Luca Ciabatta, Ivan Marchesini, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4869–4885, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper performs the most comprehensive European-scale evaluation to date of satellite rainfall products for river flow prediction. In doing so, how errors transfer from satellite-based rainfall products into flood simulation is investigated in depth and, for the first time, quantitative guidelines on the use of these products for hydrological applications are provided. This result can represent a keystone in the use of satellite rainfall products, especially in data-scarce regions.
El Mahdi El Khalki, Yves Tramblay, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Vincent Simonneaux, Simon Gascoin, and Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2591–2607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In North Africa, the vulnerability to floods is high, and there is a need to improve the flood-forecasting systems. Remote-sensing and reanalysis data can palliate the lack of in situ measurements, in particular for soil moisture, which is a crucial parameter to consider when modeling floods. In this study we provide an evaluation of recent globally available soil moisture products for flood modeling in Morocco.
Cited articles
Alexandersson, H.: A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data, J. Climatol., 6, 661–675, 1986.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming
increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Arnell, N. W.: A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geographic domain, J. Hydrol., 217, 314–335, 1999.
Avanzi, F., Rungee, J., Maurer, T., Bales, R., Ma, Q., Glaser, S., and Conklin, M.: Climate elasticity of evapotranspiration shifts the water balance of Mediterranean climates during multi-year droughts, Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4317-2020, 2020.
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.: Heavy precipitation in a changing
climate: does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1165–1172, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062588, 2015.
Bard, A., Renard, B., Lang, M., Giuntoli, I., Korck, J., Koboltschnig, G.,
Janža, M., d'Amico, M., and Volken, D.: Trends in the hydrologic regime of Alpine rivers, J. Hydrol., 529, 1823–1837, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.052, 2015.
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., and Palutikof, J. P. (Eds.): Climate change and water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 2008.
Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Lun, D., Hall, J., and Blöschl, G.: Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different?, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, 2020.
Birsan, M.-V., Molnar, P., Burlando, P., and Pfaundler, M.: Streamflow trends in Switzerland, J. Hydrol., 314, 312–329, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.008, 2005.
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A.,
Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet,
E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and
Živković, N.: Changing climate both increases and decreases European
river floods, Nature, 573, 108–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6, 2019.
Bormann, H. and Pinter, N.: Trends in low flows of German rivers since 1950:
comparability of different low-flow indicators and their spatial patterns,
River Res. Appl., 33, 1191–1204, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3152, 2017.
Brocca, L., Massari, C., Pellarin, T., Filippucci, P., Ciabatta, L., Camici, S., Kerr, Y. H., and Fernández-Prieto, D.: River flow prediction in data scarce regions: soil moisture integrated satellite rainfall products outperform rain gauge observations in West Africa, Scient. Rep., 10, 1–14, 2020..
Brooks, H. E.: Severe thunderstorms and climate change, Atmos. Res., 123, 129–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002, 2013.
Buishand, T. A.: Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records, J. Hydrol., 58, 11–27, 1982.
Buishand, T. A.: Tests for detecting a shift in the mean of hydrological time series, J. Hydrol., 73, 51–69, 1984.
Burn, D. H., Hannaford, J., Hodgkins, G. A., Whitfield, P. H., Thorne, R.,
and Marsh, T.: Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic
networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 57, 1580–1593, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.728705, 2012.
Caloiero, T. and Veltri, S.: Drought assessment in the Sardinia Region (Italy) during 1922–2011 using the standardized precipitation index, Pure Appl. Geophys., 176, 925–935, 2019.
Chu, H., Wei, J., and Wu, W.: Streamflow prediction using LASSO-FCM-DBN approach based on hydro-meteorological condition classification, J. Hydrol., 580, 124253, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124253, 2020.
Dai, A., Qian, T., Trenberth, K. E., and Milliman, J. D.: Changes in continental freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004, J. Climate, 22, 2773–2792, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2592.1, 2009.
Demeterová, B. and Škoda, P.: Minimal discharges at the Slovak
riversin the period 1961–2000 at the stations of National Climate Programme,
Meteorologicky Casopis, 3, 155, 2005.
Demeterová, B. and Škoda, P.: Low flow in selected streams of
Slovakia, J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 57, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.2478/v10098-009-0006-0, 2009.
Durocher, M., Requena, A. I., Burn, D. H., and Pellerin, J.: Analysis of trends in annual streamflow to the Arctic Ocean, Hydrol. Process., 33, 1143–1151, 2019.
Fernandez-Carrillo, A., de la Fuente, D., Rivas-Gonzalez, F. W., and Franco-Nieto, A.: A Sentinel-2 unsupervised forest mask for European sites,
in: Earth Resources and Environmental Remote Sensing/GIS Applications X,
International Society for Optics and Photonics, Strasbourg, France, https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2533040, 2019.
Feyen, L. and Dankers, R.: Impact of global warming on streamflow drought in Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D17116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011438, 2009.
Fiala, T.: Statistical characteristics and trends of mean annual and monthly
discharges of Czech rivers in the period 1961–2005, J. Hydrol. Hydromech.,
56, 133–140, 2008.
Fiala, T., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., and Hladný, J.: Evolution of low flows in the Czech Republic, J. Hydrol., 393, 206–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.018, 2010.
Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., Hisdal, H., and Hannah, D. M.: Regional hydrological drought in north-western Europe: linking a new Regional Drought
Area Index with weather types, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1163–1179,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7644, 2011.
Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., James, P., Hisdal, H., and Stahl, K.:
Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in
synoptic circulation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3093–3107,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015, 2015.
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Rojas, R., Flörke, M., Wimmer, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-85-2014, 2014.
Ghiggi, G., Humphrey, V., Seneviratne, S. I., and Gudmundsson, L.: G-RUN ENSEMBLE: A Multi-Forcing Observation-Based Global Runoff Reanalysis, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028787, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028787, 2021.
Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Observation-based gridded runoff estimates for Europe (E-RUN version 1.1), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 279–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-279-2016, 2016.
Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., and Zhang, X.: Anthropogenic climate
change detected in European renewable freshwater resources, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 813–816, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3416, 2017.
Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., VOß, F., Arnell,
N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling,
S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P.,
Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G. P., and Yeh, P.: Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 869–884, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1324.1, 2011.
Hannaford, J., Buys, G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: The influence of
decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2717–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013, 2013.
Hannah, D. M., Demuth, S., van Lanen, H. A. J., Looser, U., Prudhomme, C.,
Rees, G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Large-scale river flow archives:
importance, current status and future needs, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1191–1200, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7794, 2011.
Hisdal, H., Stahl, K., Tallaksen, L. M., and Demuth, S.: Have streamflow
droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent?, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 317–333, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.619, 2001.
Hisdal, H., Holmqvist, E., Jónsdóttir, J., Jónsson, P., Järvet, A., Lindström, G., Kolcova, T., Kriauciuniene, J., Kuusisto,
E., and Lizuma, L.: Climate change signals in streamflow data in the Nordic
and Baltic region, edited by: Heinonen, M., Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate and Water, Helsinki, Finland, 182–187, 2007.
Hodgkins, G. A., Whitfield, P. H., Burn, D. H., Hannaford, J., Renard, B.,
Stahl, K., Fleig, A. K., Madsen, H., Mediero, L., Korhonen, J., Murphy, C.,
and Wilson, D.: Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods
across North America and Europe, J. Hydrol., 552, 704–717, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.027, 2017.
Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P.: Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 59, 1117–1134, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979, 2014.
Kendall, M. G.: Multivariate analysis, Griffin, London, 1975.
Khaliq, M. N., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., Gachon, P., Sushama, L., and St-Hilaire,
A.: Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers, J. Hydrol., 368, 117–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.035, 2009.
Kulkarni, A. and von Storch, H.: Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of
serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend, Meteorol. Z., 4, 82–85, 1995.
Kundzewicz, Z. W. and Robson, A. J.: Change detection in hydrological records: a review of the methodology, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49, 7–19, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.1.7.53993, 2004.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Graczyk, D., Maurer, T., Pińskwar, I., Radziejewski,
M., Svensson, C., and Szwed, M.: Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 50, 5, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.2005.50.5.797, 2005.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Hartmann, H., Duethmann, D., Wortmann, M., Huang, S., Su, B., Jiang, T., and Krysanova, V.: Analysis of changes in climate and river discharge with focus on seasonal runoff predictability in the Aksu River Basin, Environ. Earth Sci., 73, 501–516, 2015.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Huang, J., Pinskwar, I., Su, B., Szwed, M., and Jiang, T.: Climate variability and floods in China – A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 211, 103434, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103434, 2020.
Laizé, C. L. R. and Hannah, D. M.: Modification of climate–river flow
associations by basin properties, J. Hydrol., 389, 186–204,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.048, 2010.
Lehner, B., Döll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., and Kaspar, F.: Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis, Climatic Change, 75, 273–299, 2006.
Lobanova, A., Liersch, S., Nunes, J. P., Didovets, I., Stagl, J., Huang, S., Koch, del Rocío Rivas López, M., Fox Maule, C., Hattermann, F., and Krysanova, V.: Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins, J. Hydrol.: Re. Stud., 18, 15–30, 2018.
Madsen, H., Lawrence, D., Lang, M., Martinkova, M., and Kjeldsen, T. R.:
Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe, J. Hydrol., 519, 3634–3650,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.003, 2014.
Manabe, S., Wetherald, R. T., Milly, P. C. D., Delworth, T. L., and Stouffer, R. J.: Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling
experiment, Climatic Change, 64, 59–76, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024674.37725.ca, 2004.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945.
Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., and Granados, A.: Detection and
attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain,
J. Hydrol., 517, 1072–1088, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.040, 2014.
Milliman, J. D., Farnsworth, K. L., Jones, P. D., Xu, K. H., and Smith, L. C.: Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951–2000, Global Planet. Change, 62, 187–194,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.001, 2008.
Milly, P. C. D., Dunne, K. A., and Vecchia, A. V.: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438,
347–350, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04312, 2005.
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., and Jones, P. D.: Quantifying
uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of
observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017187, 2012.
Murphy, C., Harrigan, S., Hall, J., and Wilby, R. L.: Climate-driven trends
in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 58, 755–772, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.782407, 2013.
Orlowsky, B., Hoekstra, A. Y., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Today's virtual water consumption and trade under future water scarcity, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 074007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074007, 2014.
Pandžić, K. and Trninić, D.: Principal component analysis of a
river basin discharge and precipitation anomaly fields associated with the
global circulation, J. Hydrol., 132, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(92)90185-X, 1992.
Pellicciotti, F., Bauder, A., and Parola, M.: Effect of glaciers on streamflow trends in the Swiss Alps, Water Resour. Res., 46, 2009WR009039,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR009039, 2010.
Peña-Angulo, D., Nadal-Romero, E., González-Hidalgo, J. C., Albaladejo, J., Andreu, V., Bagarello, V., Barhi, H., Batalla, R. J., Bernal, S., Bienes, R., Campo, J., Campo-Bescós, M. A., Canatario-Duarte, A., Cantón, Y., Casali, J., Castillo, V., Cerdà, A., Cheggour, A., Cid, P., Cortesi, N., Desir, G., Díaz-Pereira, E., Espigares, T., Estrany, J., Fernández-Raga, M., Ferreira, C. S. S., Ferro, V., Gallart, F., Giménez, R., Gimeno, E., Gómez, J. A., Gómez-Gutiérrez, A., Gómez-Macpherson, H., González-Pelayo, O., Hueso-González, P., Kairis, O., Karatzas, G. P., Klotz, S., Kosmas, C., Lana-Renault, N., Lasanta, T., Latron, J., Lázaro, R., Le Bissonnais, Y., Le Bouteiller, C., Licciardello, F., López-Tarazón, J. A., Lucía, A., Marín, C., Marqués, M. J., Martínez-Fernández, J., Martínez-Mena, M., Martínez-Murillo, J. F., Mateos, L., Mathys, N., Merino-Martín, L., Moreno-de las Heras, M., Moustakas, N., Nicolau, J. M., Novara, A., Pampalone, V., Raclot, D., Rodríguez-Blanco, M. L., Rodrigo-Comino, J., Romero-Díaz, A., Roose, E., Rubio, J. L., Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D., Schnabel, S., Senciales-González, J. M., Simonneaux, V., Solé-Benet, A., Taguas, E. V., Taboada-Castro, M. M., Taboada-Castro, M. T., Todisco, F., Úbeda, X., Varouchakis, E. A., Vericat, D., Wittenberg, L., and Zabaleta, A., and Zorn, M.: Spatial variability of the relationships of runoff and sediment yield with weather types throughout the Mediterranean basin, J. Hydrol., 571, 390–405, 2019.
Pettitt, A. N.: A non‐parametric approach to the change‐point problem, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. C, 28, 126–135, 1979.
Piniewski, M., Marcinkowski, P., and Kundzewicz, Z. W.: Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland, Acta Geophys., 66, 347–360, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0116-3, 2018.
Renard, B., Lang, M., Bois, P., Dupeyrat, A., Mestre, O., Niel, H., Sauquet,
E., Prudhomme, C., Parey, S., Paquet, E., Neppel, L., and Gailhard, J.:
Regional methods for trend detection: Assessing field significance and
regional consistency, Water Resour. Res., 44, W08419, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006268, 2008.
Rogger, M., Agnoletti, M., Alaoui, A., Bathurst, J. C., Bodner, G., Borga, M., Chaplot, V., Gallart, F., Glatzel, G., Hall, J., Holden, J., Holko, L.,
Horn, R., Kiss, A., Kohnová, S., Leitinger, G., Lennartz, B., Parajka,
J., Perdigão, R., Peth, S., Plavcová, L., Quinton, J. N., Robinson,
M., Salinas, J. L., Santoro, A., Szolgay, J., Tron, S., van den Akker, J. J.
H., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Land use change impacts on floods at
the catchment scale: challenges and opportunities for future research, Water
Resour. Res., 53, 5209–5219, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020723, 2017.
Schmocker-Fackel, P. and Naef, F.: More frequent flooding? Changes in flood
frequency in Switzerland since 1850, J. Hydrol., 381, 1–8,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.022, 2010.
Sen, P. K.: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's Tau,
J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389, 1968.
Shorthouse, C. A. and Arnell, N. W.: Spatial and temporal variability in European river flows and the North Atlantic oscillation, in: FRIEND'97 – Regional Hydrology: Concepts and Models for Sustainable Water Resource
Management, Proceedings of the Postojna Conference, September–October 1997, Slovenia, 77–168, 1997.
Solomon, S., Manning, M., Marquis, M., and Qin, D.: Climate change 2007 – the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fourth
assessment report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
Sommer, C., Malz, P., Seehaus, T. C., Lippl, S., Zemp, M., and Braun, M. H.:
Rapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the
early 21st century, Nat. Commun., 11, 3209, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16818-0, 2020.
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Vogt, J., and Barbosa, P.: European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach, Global Planet. Change, 127, 50–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.012, 2015.
Stagge, J. H., Kingston, D. G., Tallaksen, L. M., and Hannah, D. M.: Observed drought indices show increasing divergence across Europe, Sci. Rep., 7, 14045, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14283-2, 2017.
Stahl, K., Hisdal, H., Hannaford, J., and Tallaksen, L.: Streamflow trends
in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2367–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010, 2010.
Steirou, E., Gerlitz, L., Apel, H., and Merz, B.: Links between large-scale
circulation patterns and streamflow in Central Europe: A review, J. Hydrol., 549, 484–500, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.003, 2017.
Teuling, A. J., Van Loon, A. F., Seneviratne, S. I., Lehner, I., Aubinet, M., Heinesch, B., Bernhofer, C., Grünwald, T., Prasse, H., and Spank, U.: Evapotranspiration amplifies European summer drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2071–2075, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50495, 2013.
Teuling, A. J., de Badts, E. A. G., Jansen, F. A., Fuchs, R., Buitink, J.,
Hoek van Dijke, A. J., and Sterling, S. M.: Climate change, reforestation/afforestation, and urbanization impacts on evapotranspiration
and streamflow in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3631–3652,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, 2019.
Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie Van Wetenschappen, Amsterdam,
the Netherlands, 16 pp., 1950.
Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Marx, A., Pan, M., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Zink, M.: Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 014003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35, 2018.
Urbonas, B. and Stahre, P.: Stormwater: Best management practices and
detention for water quality, drainage, and CSO management, available at: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0138474923 (last access: 22 October 2021), 1993.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J.-I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, J. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R., Coelho, F., and Espejo, F.: Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 044001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001, 2014.
Viglione, A., Borga, M., Balabanis, P., and Blöschl, G.: Barriers to the
exchange of hydrometeorological data in Europe: Results from a survey and
implications for data policy, J. Hydrol., 394, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.023, 2010.
Von Neumann, J.: Distribution of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance, Ann. Math. Stat., 12, 367–395, 1941.
von Storch, H.: Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research, in:
Analysis of climate variability – Applications of statistical techniques,
Springer Verlag, 334 pp., 1995.
Willems, P.: Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe, Climatic Change, 120, 931–944, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0837-x, 2013.
Yue, S. and Pilon, P.: A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann-Kendall and bootstrap tests for trend detection, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49,
21–37, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.1.21.53996, 2004.
Yue, S. and Wang, C.: The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series, Water Resour. Manage., 18, 201–218, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60, 2004.
Yue, S., Pilon, P., and Phinney, B.: Canadian streamflow trend detection:
impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 51–63, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.51.43478, 2003.
Zeng, Z., Piao, S., Lin, X., Yin, G., Peng, S., Ciais, P., and Myneni, R. B.: Global evapotranspiration over the past three decades: estimation based on the water balance equation combined with empirical models, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014026, 2012.
Short summary
We evaluate 63 years of changes in annual streamflow volume across Europe, using a data set of more than 3000 stations, with a special focus on the Mediterranean basin. The results show decreasing (increasing) volumes in the southern (northern) regions. These trends are strongly consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation.
We evaluate 63 years of changes in annual streamflow volume across Europe, using a data set of...
