Articles | Volume 25, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2353-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2353-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 May 2021
Research article |
| 03 May 2021
| 03 May 2021
Projected changes in Rhine River flood seasonality under global warming
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Axel Bronstert
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Gerd Bürger
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Oldrich Rakovec
UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Prague – Suchdol, 165 00, Czech Republic
Related authors
Ulrich Strasser, Michael Warscher, Erwin Rottler, and Florian Hanzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6775–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
openAMUNDSEN is a fully distributed open-source snow-hydrological model for mountain catchments. It includes process representations of an empirical, semi-empirical, and physical nature. It uses temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation, and wind speed as forcing data and is computationally efficient, of a modular nature, and easily extendible. The Python code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/openamundsen/openamundsen), including documentation (https://doc.openamundsen.org).
Michael Warscher, Thomas Marke, Erwin Rottler, and Ulrich Strasser
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3579–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Continuous observations of snow and climate at high altitudes are still sparse. We present a unique collection of weather and snow cover data from three automatic weather stations at remote locations in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) that include continuous recordings of snow cover properties. The data are available over multiple winter seasons and enable new insights for snow hydrological research. The data are also used in operational applications, i.e., for avalanche warning and flood forecasting.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Erwin Rottler, Theresa Blume, Johannes Schöber, and Axel Bronstert
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-653-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-653-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change fundamentally alters glaciated high-alpine areas, but it is unclear how this affects riverine sediment transport. As a first step, we aimed to identify the most important processes and source areas in three nested catchments in the Ötztal, Austria, in the past 15 years. We found that areas above 2500 m were crucial and that summer rainstorms were less influential than glacier melt. These findings provide a baseline for studies on future changes in high-alpine sediment dynamics.
Erwin Rottler, Till Francke, Gerd Bürger, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term impacts of changes in snow cover and precipitation along with reservoir constructions, we employ a set of analytical tools on hydro-climatic time series. We identify storage reservoirs as an important factor redistributing runoff from summer to winter. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rainfall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Vishal Thakur, Yannis Markonis, Rohini Kumar, Johanna Ruth Thomson, Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy, Martin Hanel, and Oldrich Rakovec
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-341, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-341, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the changes in water movement in earth is crucial for everyone. To quantify this water movement there are several techniques. We examined how different methods of estimating evaporation impact predictions of various types of water movement across Europe. We found that, while these methods generally agree on whether changes are increasing or decreasing, they differ in magnitude. This means selecting the right evaporation method is crucial for accurate predictions of water movement.
Ulrich Strasser, Michael Warscher, Erwin Rottler, and Florian Hanzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6775–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
openAMUNDSEN is a fully distributed open-source snow-hydrological model for mountain catchments. It includes process representations of an empirical, semi-empirical, and physical nature. It uses temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation, and wind speed as forcing data and is computationally efficient, of a modular nature, and easily extendible. The Python code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/openamundsen/openamundsen), including documentation (https://doc.openamundsen.org).
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Michael Warscher, Thomas Marke, Erwin Rottler, and Ulrich Strasser
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3579–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Continuous observations of snow and climate at high altitudes are still sparse. We present a unique collection of weather and snow cover data from three automatic weather stations at remote locations in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) that include continuous recordings of snow cover properties. The data are available over multiple winter seasons and enable new insights for snow hydrological research. The data are also used in operational applications, i.e., for avalanche warning and flood forecasting.
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The July 2021 flood in Central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the past decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory was only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps better prepare for future extreme floods.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, and Miroslav Trnka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, which was clustered into 775/630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of the reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers and data users.
Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Gloria Chinwendu Okafor, Bernhard Tischbein, and Hadush Meresa
Proc. IAHS, 385, 211–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the MPR-mHM technique was applied in four data-scarce basins in Nigeria. Remotely sensed rainfall datasets were used as model forcings to evaluate the mHM capability in reproducing observed stream discharge under single and multivariable model calibration frameworks. Overall, model calibration performances displayed satisfactory outputs as evident in the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) scores across most basins.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.
Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy, Yannis Markonis, Oldrich Rakovec, Michal Jenicek, Riya Dutta, Rajani Kumar Pradhan, Zuzana Bešťáková, Jan Kyselý, Roman Juras, Simon Michael Papalexiou, and Martin Hanel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study introduces a novel benchmarking method based on the water cycle budget for hydroclimate data fusion. Using this method and multiple state-of-the-art datasets to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of water cycle changes in Czechia, we found that differences in water availability distribution are dominated by evapotranspiration. Furthermore, while the most significant temporal changes in Czechia occur during spring, the median spatial patterns stem from summer changes in the water cycle.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Bahar Bahrami, Anke Hildebrandt, Stephan Thober, Corinna Rebmann, Rico Fischer, Luis Samaniego, Oldrich Rakovec, and Rohini Kumar
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6957–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are crucial components to carbon cycle, and are closely linked to water cycle in many ways. We develop a Parsimonious Canopy Model (PCM) to simulate GPP and LAI at stand scale, and show its applicability over a diverse range of deciduous broad-leaved forest biomes. With its modular structure, the PCM is able to adapt with existing data requirements, and run in either a stand-alone mode or as an interface linked to hydrologic models.
Sadaf Nasreen, Markéta Součková, Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy, Ujjwal Singh, Yannis Markonis, Rohini Kumar, Oldrich Rakovec, and Martin Hanel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4035–4056, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents a 500-year reconstructed annual runoff dataset for several European catchments. Several data-driven and hydrological models were used to derive the runoff series using reconstructed precipitation and temperature and a set of proxy data. The simulated runoff was validated using independent observed runoff data and documentary evidence. The validation revealed a good fit between the observed and reconstructed series for 14 catchments, which are available for further analysis.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Erwin Rottler, Theresa Blume, Johannes Schöber, and Axel Bronstert
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-653-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-653-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change fundamentally alters glaciated high-alpine areas, but it is unclear how this affects riverine sediment transport. As a first step, we aimed to identify the most important processes and source areas in three nested catchments in the Ötztal, Austria, in the past 15 years. We found that areas above 2500 m were crucial and that summer rainstorms were less influential than glacier melt. These findings provide a baseline for studies on future changes in high-alpine sediment dynamics.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Erwin Rottler, Till Francke, Gerd Bürger, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term impacts of changes in snow cover and precipitation along with reservoir constructions, we employ a set of analytical tools on hydro-climatic time series. We identify storage reservoirs as an important factor redistributing runoff from summer to winter. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rainfall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.
Miao Jing, Rohini Kumar, Falk Heße, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1511–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the response of regional groundwater system to the climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in a central German basin. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis is also presented. This study indicates that the variability of responses increases with the amount of global warming, which might affect the cost of managing the groundwater system.
Naoki Mizukami, Oldrich Rakovec, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew W. Wood, Hoshin V. Gupta, and Rohini Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We find that Nash–Sutcliffe (NSE)-based model calibrations result in poor reproduction of high-flow events, such as the annual peak flows that are used for flood frequency estimation. The use of Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) results in annual peak flow estimates that are better than from NSE, with only a slight degradation in performance with respect to other related metrics.
Tobias Pilz, José Miguel Delgado, Sebastian Voss, Klaus Vormoor, Till Francke, Alexandre Cunha Costa, Eduardo Martins, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1951–1971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates different model types for drought prediction in a dryland region. Consequently, the performances of seasonal reservoir volume forecasts derived by a process-based and a statistical hydrological model were evaluated. The process-based approach obtained lower accuracy while resolution and reliability of drought prediction were comparable. Initialisation of the process-based model is worthwhile for more in-depth analyses, provided adequate rainfall forecasts are available.
José Miguel Delgado, Sebastian Voss, Gerd Bürger, Klaus Vormoor, Aline Murawski, José Marcelo Rodrigues Pereira, Eduardo Martins, Francisco Vasconcelos Júnior, and Till Francke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5041–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The feasibility of drought prediction is assessed in the Brazilian northeast. The models were provided by a regional agency and a European meteorological agency and downscaling was done using three empirical models. This work showed that the combination of different forecast and downscaling models can provide skillful predictions of drought events on timescales relevant to water managers. But the models also showed little to no skill for quantitative predictions of monthly precipitation.
Till Francke, Saskia Foerster, Arlena Brosinsky, Erik Sommerer, Jose A. Lopez-Tarazon, Andreas Güntner, Ramon J. Batalla, and Axel Bronstert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1063–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1063-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1063-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a hydro-sedimentological dataset for the Isábena catchment, northeastern Spain, for the period 2010–2018. It contains the results of several years of monitoring rainfall, discharge and sediment flux and analysing soil spectroscopic properties. The dataset features data in high spatial and temporal resolution suitable for the advanced process understanding of water and sediment fluxes, their origin and connectivity and sediment budgeting and for model development.
Andreas Marx, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Niko Wanders, Matthias Zink, Eric F. Wood, Ming Pan, Justin Sheffield, and Luis Samaniego
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1017-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1017-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K). The multi-model ensemble results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Adaptation should make use of change and uncertainty information.
Berry Boessenkool, Gerd Bürger, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1623–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1623-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1623-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall is more intense at high temperatures than in cooler weather, as can be seen in summer thunder storms. The relationship between temperature and rainfall intensity seems to invert at very high temperatures, however. There are some possible meteorological explanations, but we propose that part of the reason might be the low number of observations, due to which the actually possible values are underestimated. We propose a better way to estimate high quantiles from small datasets.
Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Matthias Zink, Niko Wanders, Stephanie Eisner, Hannes Müller Schmied, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4323–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We inspect the state-of-the-art of several land surface (LSMs) and hydrologic models (HMs) and show that most do not have consistent and realistic parameter fields for land surface geophysical properties. We propose to use the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique to solve, at least partly, the scaling problem in LSMs/HMs. A general model protocol is presented to describe how MPR can be applied to a specific model.
Tobias Pilz, Till Francke, and Axel Bronstert
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3001–3023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3001-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To discretise and transfer a landscape into a hydrological model, many different algorithms and software implementations exist. These are, however, often model specific, commercial, and allow for only a limited workflow automation. Overcoming these limitations, the software package lumpR was developed. It employs an hillslope-based discretisation algorithm directed at large-scale application. The software is demonstrated in a case study and crucial discretisation parameters are investigated.
Aline Murawski, Gerd Bürger, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4283–4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. Here the link between patterns and local climate is tested, and the skill of GCMs in reproducing these patterns is evaluated.
O. Rakovec, A. H. Weerts, J. Sumihar, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2911–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2911-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2911-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first analysis of the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter in hydrological forecasting. The results of discharge assimilation into a hydrological model for the catchment show that including past predictions and observations in the filter improves model forecasts. Additionally, we show that elimination of the strongly non-linear relation between soil moisture and assimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficial for improved operational forecasting.
M. A. Sunyer, Y. Hundecha, D. Lawrence, H. Madsen, P. Willems, M. Martinkova, K. Vormoor, G. Bürger, M. Hanel, J. Kriaučiūnienė, A. Loukas, M. Osuch, and I. Yücel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, 2015
C. Kormann, T. Francke, M. Renner, and A. Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1225–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015, 2015
K. Vormoor, D. Lawrence, M. Heistermann, and A. Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 913–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-913-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-913-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Projected shifts towards more dominant autumn/winter events during a future climate correspond to an increasing relevance of rainfall as a flood generating process in six Norwegian catchments. The relative role of hydrological model parameter uncertainty, compared to other uncertainty sources from our applied ensemble, is highest in those catchments showing the largest shifts in flood seasonality which indicates a lack in parameter robustness under non-stationary hydroclimatological conditions.
C. H. Mohr, A. Zimmermann, O. Korup, A. Iroumé, T. Francke, and A. Bronstert
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 117–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014, 2014
T. Conradt, F. Wechsung, and A. Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2947–2966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2947-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2947-2013, 2013
M. Heistermann, I. Crisologo, C. C. Abon, B. A. Racoma, S. Jacobi, N. T. Servando, C. P. C. David, and A. Bronstert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 653–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-653-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-653-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
A diversity-centric strategy for the selection of spatio-temporal training data for LSTM-based streamflow forecasting
Simulating the Tone River eastward diversion project in Japan carried out 4 centuries ago
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: a large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify hydrological and climatic drivers
Achieving water budget closure through physical hydrological process modelling: insights from a large-sample study
Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?
State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
Improved representation of soil moisture processes through incorporation of cosmic-ray neutron count measurements in a large-scale hydrologic model
Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Technical note: An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
Estimating response times, flow velocities, and roughness coefficients of Canadian Prairie basins
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis
Extended range forecasting of stream water temperature with deep learning models
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Analyzing the generalization capabilities of hybrid hydrological models for extrapolation to extreme events
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric-hydrological model
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Scale-dependency in modeling nivo-glacial hydrological systems: the case of the Arolla basin, Switzerland
Evaluating the effects of topography and land use change on hydrological signatures: a comparative study of two adjacent watersheds
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained on large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets that maximise the spatio-temporal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 753–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms claims raised by historians that the eastward diversion project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted 4 centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the capital, Edo (Tokyo), using inland navigation. We showed that great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small interventions in the regime of natural flows.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 627–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Dataset Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Process Modelling to enhance water budget closure, termed PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modeling. However, most studies focus on daily-scale predictions, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use input of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what it truly reflects in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and time scales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for the next month at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 day ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 1 month ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Eduardo Acuna Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall-runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study conducted a detailed analysis of runoff component and future trend in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin owing to the existed differences in the published results, and find that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow were limited, both for ~5 % which were much lower than previous results. The streamflow there will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution from glacier melt would lead to an underestimation on such increasing trend.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart Lane, and Francesco Comiti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until an overparametrization limit is reached.
Haifan Liu, Haochen Yan, and Mingfu Guan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-136, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
In mountainous areas, the relationship between slope and annual hydrological processes is pronounced. However, at lower elevations, this relationship is weak in steeper watersheds. In addition, urbanization leads to an increase in annual surface runoff in all watersheds, especially in steep-slope watersheds. Flatter watersheds exhibit a buffering capacity against urbanization. However, this buffering capacity is diminishing as annual rainfall intensity increases.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Cited articles
Addor, N., Rössler, O., Köplin, N., Huss, M., Weingartner, R., and Seibert,
J.: Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological
regimes of Swiss catchments, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7541–7562,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015549, 2014. a, b
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Allamano, P., Claps, P., and Laio, F.: Global warming increases flood risk in
mountainous areas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L24404,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041395, 2009. a
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a
warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438,
303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005. a
Bavay, M., Lehning, M., Jonas, T., and Löwe, H.: Simulations of future snow
cover and discharge in Alpine headwater catchments, Hydrol. Process.,
23, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7195, 2009. a
Belz, J. U., Brahmer, G., Buiteveld, H., Engel, H., Grabher, R., Hodel, H.,
Krahe, P., Lammersen, R., Larina, M., Mendel, H.-G., Meuser, A., Müller,
G., Plonka, B., Pfister, L., and van Vuuren, W.: Das Abflussregime Des
Rheins Und Seiner Nebenflüsse Im 20. Jahrhundert, Analyse,
Veränderungen Und Trends, Tech. Rep. Bericht Nr. I-22,
Internationale Kommission fur die Hydrologie des Rheingebietes (KHR), Lelystad, Netherlands, 2007. a, b
Beniston, M.: Impacts of climatic change on water and associated economic
activities in the Swiss Alps, J. Hydrol., 412-413, 291–296,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.046,
2010, 2012. a
Beniston, M., Farinotti, D., Stoffel, M., Andreassen, L. M., Coppola, E., Eckert, N., Fantini, A., Giacona, F., Hauck, C., Huss, M., Huwald, H., Lehning, M., López-Moreno, J.-I., Magnusson, J., Marty, C., Morán-Tejéda, E., Morin, S., Naaim, M., Provenzale, A., Rabatel, A., Six, D., Stötter, J., Strasser, U., Terzago, S., and Vincent, C.: The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges, The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Berghuijs, W. R., Harrigan, S., Molnar, P., Slater, L. J., and Kirchner, J. W.:
The Relative Importance of Different Flood-Generating Mechanisms
Across Europe, Water Resour. Res., 55, 4582–4593,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024841, 2019. a
Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Lun, D., Hall, J., and Blöschl, G.: Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, 2020. a
Blenkinsop, S. and Fowler, H. J.: Changes in European drought characteristics
projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models, Int. J.
Climatol., 27, 1595–1610, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1538, 2007. a
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz,
B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M.,
Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B.,
Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J.,
Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnová, S., Koskela,
J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L.,
Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V.,
Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E.,
Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and Živković, N.: Changing climate both increases
and decreases European river floods, Nature, 573, 108–111,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6, 2019. a
Bronstert, A., Bárdossy, A., Bismuth, C., Buiteveld, H., Disse, M., Engel, H.,
Fritsch, U., Hundecha, Y., Lammersen, R., Niehoff, D., and Ritter, N.:
Multi-scale modelling of land-use change and river training effects on floods
in the Rhine basin, River Res. Appl., 23, 1102–1125,
https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.1036, 2007. a, b
Brunner, M. I., Farinotti, D., Zekollari, H., Huss, M., and Zappa, M.: Future shifts in extreme flow regimes in Alpine regions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4471–4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4471-2019, 2019. a
Brunner, M. I., Gilleland, E., Wood, A., Swain, D. L., and Clark, M.: Spatial
Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological
and Land-Surface Processes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47,
e2020GL088000, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088000, 2020a. a
Brunner, M. I., Melsen, L. A., Newman, A. J., Wood, A. W., and Clark, M. P.: Future streamflow regime changes in the United States: assessment using functional classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020b. a
Bürger, G., Pfister, A., and Bronstert, A.: Temperature-Driven Rise in
Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall, J. Climate, 32, 7597–7609,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1, 2019. a
Crozier, M. J.: Deciphering the effect of climate change on landslide activity:
A review, Geomorphology, 124, 260–267,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.04.009, 2010. a
Dankers, R. and Feyen, L.: Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An
assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D19105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009719, 2008. a
Davenport, F. V., Herrera-Estrada, J. E., Burke, M., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.:
Flood Size Increases Nonlinearly Across the Western United States in Response
to Lower Snow-Precipitation Ratios, Water Resour. Res., 56,
e2019WR025571, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025571, 2020. a
Della-Marta, P. M., Haylock, M. R., Luterbacher, J., and Wanner, H.: Doubled
length of western European summer heat waves since 1880, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D15103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008510, 2007. a
de Saint-Venant, A. J. C. B.: Théorie du mouvement non permanent des eaux,
avec application aux crues des rivières et a l'introduction de marées dans
leurs lits, Comptes Rendus des Séances de l'Académie des Sciences,
Gauthier-Villars, Paris, France, 73, 1–11, 1871. a
Ehret, U., Zehe, E., Wulfmeyer, V., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Liebert, J.: HESS Opinions ”Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?”, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3391–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012, 2012. a
Elberling, B., Michelsen, A., Schädel, C., Schuur, E. A., Christiansen,
H. H., Berg, L., Tamstorf, M. P., and Sigsgaard, C.: Long-term CO2
production following permafrost thaw, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 890–894,
2013. a
Feddes, R. A., Kowalik, P., Kolinska-Malinka, K., and Zaradny, H.: Simulation
of field water uptake by plants using a soil water dependent root extraction
function, J. Hydrol., 31, 13–26,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(76)90017-2, 1976. a
Fischer, E. M. and Schär, C.: Consistent geographical patterns of changes
in high-impact European heatwaves, Nat. Geosci., 3, 398–403, 2010. a
Freudiger, D., Kohn, I., Stahl, K., and Weiler, M.: Large-scale analysis of changing frequencies of rain-on-snow events with flood-generation potential, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2695–2709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2695-2014, 2014. a
Froidevaux, P., Schwanbeck, J., Weingartner, R., Chevalier, C., and Martius, O.: Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3903–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3903-2015, 2015. a
Grillakis, M. G.: Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for
Europe under climate change, Sci. Total Environ., 660, 1245–1255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001, 2019. a
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of
the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for
improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009. a
Hanzer, F., Förster, K., Nemec, J., and Strasser, U.: Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1593–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference crop evapotranspiration from
temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1, 96–99, 1985. a
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D.,
and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface
temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 113, D20119, 2008. a
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., and Schewe, J.: Bias corrected GCM
input data for ISIMIP Fast Track, available at:
https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/fast-track-bias-correction/ (last access: 28 April 2021),
2013a. a
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., and Piontek, F.: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013b. a, b
Hengl, T.,
Mendes de Jesus, J.,
Heuvelink, G. B. M.,
Ruiperez Gonzalez, M.,
Kilibarda, M.,
Blagotić, A.,
Shangguan, W.,
Wright, M. N.,
Geng, X.,
Bauer-Marschallinger, B.,
Guevara, M. A.,
Vargas, R.,
MacMillan, R. A.,
Batjes, N. H.,
Leenaars, J. G. B.,
Ribeiro, E.,
Wheeler, I.,
Mantel, S., and
Kempen, B.: SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil
information based on machine learning, PLoS one, 12, e0169748,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169748, 2017. a
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, Hirabayashi, Y., Jackson,
M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A., Molau, U., Morin, S.,
Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H.: High Mountain Areas, in: IPCC Special Report on
the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H. O.,
Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E.,
Mintenbeck, K., Alegria, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B.,
and Weyer, N. M., in press, available at:
https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-2/ (last access: 28 April 2021), 2019. a
Horton, P., Schaefli, B., Mezghani, A., Hingray, B., and Musy, A.: Assessment
of climate-change impacts on alpine discharge regimes with climate model
uncertainty, Hydrol. Process., 20, 2091–2109, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6197,
2006. a
Huang, S., Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., and Bronstert, A.: Projections of
climate change impacts on river flood conditions in Germany by combining
three different RCMs with a regional eco-hydrological model, Climatic Change,
116, 631–663, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0586-2, 2013. a
Huang, S., Kumar, R., Rakovec, O., Aich, V., Wang, X., Samaniego, L., Liersch,
S., and Krysanova, V.: Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four
large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the
pre-industrial level, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 124005,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b, 2018. a
Huggel, C., Clague, J. J., and Korup, O.: Is climate change responsible for
changing landslide activity in high mountains?, Earth Surf. Proc.
Land., 37, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2223, 2012. a
Hurkmans, R., Terink, W., Uijlenhoet, R., Torfs, P., Jacob, D., and Troch,
P. A.: Changes in Streamflow Dynamics in the Rhine Basin under Three
High-Resolution Regional Climate Scenarios, J. Climate, 23,
679–699, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3066.1, 2010. a
Huss, M.: Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff
from macroscale drainage basins in Europe, Water Resour. Res., 47,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010299, 2011. a
Imhoff, R. O., van Verseveld, W. J., van Osnabrugge, B., and Weerts, A. H.:
Scaling Point-Scale (Pedo)transfer Functions to Seamless Large-Domain
Parameter Estimates for High-Resolution Distributed Hydrologic Modeling: An
Example for the Rhine River, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026807,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026807, 2020. a, b
Junghans, N., Cullmann, J., and Huss, M.: Evaluating the effect of snow and ice
melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River
Rhine, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 56, 981–993,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.595372, 2011. a, b
Kemter, M., Merz, B., Marwan, N., Vorogushyn, S., and Blöschl, G.: Joint
Trends in Flood Magnitudes and Spatial Extents Across Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087464, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087464, 2020. a
King, A. D. and Karoly, D. J.: Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees
of global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 114031,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8e2c, 2017. a
Kormann, C., Francke, T., Renner, M., and Bronstert, A.: Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria – an approach based on climate and discharge station data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1225–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015, 2015. a
Kormann, C., Bronstert, A., Francke, T., Recknagel, T., and Graeff, T.:
Model-Based attribution of high-resolution streamflow trends in two alpine
basins of Western Austria, Hydrology, 3, 7, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology3010007, 2016. a
Kumar, R., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S.: Implications of distributed
hydrologic model parameterization on water fluxes at multiple scales and
locations, Water Resour. Res., 49, 360–379,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012195, 2013. a, b, c, d
Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., and Frieler, K.: Increased record-breaking
precipitation events under global warming, Climatic Change, 132, 501–515,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y, 2015. a
Lighthill, M. J. and Whitham, G. B.: On kinematic waves I. Flood movement in
long rivers, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 229, 281–316,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1955.0088, 1955. a
Livneh, B., Kumar, R., and Samaniego, L.: Influence of soil textural
properties on hydrologic fluxes in the Mississippi river basin, Hydrol. Process., 29, 4638–4655, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10601, 2015. a
Mao, J. and Yan, B.: Global Monthly Mean Leaf Area Index Climatology, ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA,
1981–2015, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1653, 2019. a
Marx, A., Kumar, R., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Wanders, N., Zink, M., Wood, E. F., Pan, M., Sheffield, J., and Samaniego, L.: Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1017-2018, 2018. a
McGill, R., Tukey, J. W., and Larsen, W. A.: Variations of Box Plots,
Am. Stat., 32, 12–16, https://doi.org/10.2307/2683468, 1978. a
Meehl, G. A. and Tebaldi, C.: More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting
Heat Waves in the 21st Century, Science, 305, 994–997,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704, 2004. a
Middelkoop, H., Daamen, K., Gellens, D., Grabs, W., Kwadijk, J. C. J., Lang,
H., Parmet, B. W. A. H., Schädler, B., Schulla, J., and Wilke, K.: Impact
of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in
the Rhine basin, Climatic Change, 49, 105–128,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010784727448, 2001. a
Musselman, K. N., Clark, M. P., Liu, C., Ikeda, K., and Rasmussen, R.: Slower
snowmelt in a warmer world, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 214–219,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3225, 2017. a
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970. a
Pardé, M.: Fleuves et Rivières, Armand Colin, Paris, France, p. 224, 1933. a
Pfister, L., Kwadijk, J., Musy, A., Bronstert, A., and Hoffmann, L.: Climate
change, land use change and runoff prediction in the Rhine–Meuse basins,
River Res. Appl., 20, 229–241, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.775, 2004. a, b
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R
Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria,
available at: https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 28 April 2021), 2019. a
Radić, V. and Hock, R.: Glaciers in the Earth’s Hydrological Cycle:
Assessments of Glacier Mass and Runoff Changes on Global and
Regional Scales, Surv. Geophys., 35, 813–837,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-013-9262-y, 2014. a
Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Mai, J., Cuntz, M., Thober, S., Zink, M., Attinger, S.,
Schäfer, D., Schrön, M., and Samaniego, L.: Multiscale and Multivariate
Evaluation of Water Fluxes and States over European River Basins, J.
Hydrometeorol., 17, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0054.1, 2016. a
Rojas, R., Feyen, L., Bianchi, A., and Dosio, A.: Assessment of future flood
hazard in Europe using a large ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate
simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D17109,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017461, 2012. a
Rottler, E.: Sto-R-age: Projected changes in flood seasonality in the Rhine River basin, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4724950, 2021. a
Rottler, E., Francke, T., Bürger, G., and Bronstert, A.: Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016: impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020, 2020. a
Rottler, E., Vormoor, K., Francke, T., Warscher, M., Strasser, U., and
Bronstert, A.: Elevation-dependent compensation effects in snowmelt in the
Rhine River Basin upstream gauge Basel, Hydrol. Res., 52, 536–557,
https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2021.092, 2021. a, b
Rousselot, M., Durand, Y., Giraud, G., Mérindol, L., Dombrowski-Etchevers, I., Déqué, M., and Castebrunet, H.: Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover, The Cryosphere, 6, 785–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012, 2012. a
Samani, Z.: Estimating Solar Radiation and Evapotranspiration Using Minimum
Climatological Data, J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 126,
265–267, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(2000)126:4(265), 2000. a
Samaniego, L., Kumar, R., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Zink, M., Wanders, N., Eisner, S., Müller Schmied, H., Sutanudjaja, E. H., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Attinger, S.: Toward seamless hydrologic predictions across spatial scales, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4323–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, 2017. a
Samaniego, L., Kaluza, M., Kumar, R., Rakovec, O.,
Schüler, L., Schweppe, R., Shrestha, P. K,,
Thober, S., and
Attinger, S.: mesoscale Hydrologic Model, v5.10, Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3239055, 2019a. a, b
Samaniego, L., Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Rakovec, O., Pan, M., Zink,
M., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Marx, A.: Anthropogenic warming
exacerbates European soil moisture droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 421,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5, 2018b. a
Samaniego, L., Thober, S., Wanders, N., Pan, M., Rakovec, O., Sheffield, J.,
Wood, E. F., Prudhomme, C., Rees, G., Houghton-Carr, H., Fry, M., Smith, K.,
Watts, G., Hisdal, H., Estrela, T., Buontempo, C., Marx, A., and Kumar, R.:
Hydrological forecasts and projections for improved decision-making in the
water sector in Europe, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100,
2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0274.1, 2019. a, b, c
Schmucki, E., Marty, C., Fierz, C., and Lehning, M.: Simulations of 21st
century snow response to climate change in Switzerland from a set of RCMs,
International J. Climatol., 35, 3262–3273, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4205,
2015. a
Schuur, E. A. G.,
McGuire, A. D.,
Schädel, C.,
Grosse, G.,
Harden, J. W.,
Hayes, D. J.,
Hugelius, G.,
Koven, C. D.,
Kuhry, P.,
Lawrence, D. M.,
Natali, S. M.,
Olefeldt, D.,
Romanovsky, V. E.,
Schaefer, K.,
Turetsky, M. R.,
Treat, C. C., and
Vonk, J. E.:
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback, Nature, 520, 171–179,
2015. a
Serreze, M. C., Walsh, J. E., Chapin, F. S., Osterkamp, T., Dyurgerov, M.,
Romanovsky, V., Oechel, W. C., Morison, J., Zhang, T., and Barry, R. G.:
Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude
environment, Climatic Change, 46, 159–207, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005504031923,
2000. a
Speich, M. J. R., Bernhard, L., Teuling, A. J., and Zappa, M.: Application of
bivariate mapping for hydrological classification and analysis of temporal
change and scale effects in Switzerland, J. Hydrol., 523, 804–821, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.086, 2015. a
Spreafico, M. and Weingartner, R.: The Hydrology of Switzerland –
Selected aspects and results, Water Series no. 7, FOWG Reports, Berne,
2005. a
Stahl, K., Weiler, M., Kohn, I., Freudiger, D., Seibert, J., Vis, M.,
Gerlinger, K., and Böhm, M.: The snow and glacier melt components of
streamflow of the river Rhine and its tributaries considering the influence
of climate change, Synthesis report I-25, International Commission for the
Hydrology of the Rhine Basin, Lelystad, Netherlands, available at:
https://www.chr-khr.org/sites/default/files/chrpublications/asg-rhein_synthesis_en.pdf (last access: 28 April 2021),
2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Steger, C., Kotlarski, S., Jonas, T., and Schär, C.: Alpine snow cover in a
changing climate: a regional climate model perspective, Clim. Dynam., 41,
735–754, 2013. a
Stewart, I. T.: Changes in snowpack and snowmelt runoff for key mountain
regions, Hydrol. Process., 23, 78–94, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7128, 2009. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the
Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Marx, A., Pan, M., Rakovec, O., Samaniego,
L., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Zink, M.: Multi-model ensemble
projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees
global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 014003,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35, 2018. a, b, c
Thober, S., Cuntz, M., Kelbling, M., Kumar, R., Mai, J., and Samaniego, L.: The multiscale routing model mRM v1.0: simple river routing at resolutions from 1 to 50 km, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2501–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2501-2019, 2019. a, b
Tolson, B. A. and Shoemaker, C. A.: Dynamically dimensioned search algorithm
for computationally efficient watershed model calibration, Water Resour. Res., 43, W01413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004723, 2007. a
Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Sobolowski, S., Kjellström, E., Stegehuis, A.,
Watkiss, P., Mendlik, T., Landgren, O., Nikulin, G., Teichmann, C., and
Jacob, D.: The European climate under a 2 ∘C
global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 034006,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006, 2014. a
Viviroli, D., Archer, D. R., Buytaert, W., Fowler, H. J., Greenwood, G. B., Hamlet, A. F., Huang, Y., Koboltschnig, G., Litaor, M. I., López-Moreno, J. I., Lorentz, S., Schädler, B., Schreier, H., Schwaiger, K., Vuille, M., and Woods, R.: Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 471–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-471-2011, 2011. a
Vormoor, K., Lawrence, D., Heistermann, M., and Bronstert, A.: Climate change impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods – projections and uncertainties for catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 913–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-913-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Vormoor, K., Lawrence, D., Schlichting, L., Wilson, D., and Wong, W. K.:
Evidence for changes in the magnitude and frequency of observed rainfall vs.
snowmelt driven floods in Norway, J. Hydrol., 538, 33–48,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.066, 2016. a, b, c
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe,
J.: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project
(ISI–MIP): Project framework, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 111, 3228–3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2014. a
Weiler, M., Seibert, J., and Stahl, K.: Magic components – why quantifying
rain, snowmelt, and icemelt in river discharge is not easy, Hydrol. Process., 32, 160–166, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11361, 2018.
a
Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., and
Trösch, J.: The Largest Floods in the High Rhine Basin since 1268
Assessed from Documentary and Instrumental Evidence, Hydrolog. Sci.
J., 56, 733–758, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.583613, 2011. a, b
Zemp, M., Haeberli, W., Hoelzle, M., and Paul, F.: Alpine glaciers to disappear
within decades?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13504,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026319, 2006. a
Short summary
The mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) forced with an ensemble of climate projection scenarios was used to assess potential future changes in flood seasonality in the Rhine River basin. Results indicate that future changes in flood characteristics are controlled by increases in precipitation sums and diminishing snowpacks. The decreases in snowmelt can counterbalance increasing precipitation, resulting in only small and transient changes in streamflow maxima.
The mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) forced with an ensemble of climate projection scenarios...
