Articles | Volume 24, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4109-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4109-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Aug 2020
Research article |
| 21 Aug 2020
| 21 Aug 2020
Estimation of annual runoff by exploiting long-term spatial patterns and short records within a geostatistical framework
Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Trondheim, Norway
Ingelin Steinsland
Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Trondheim, Norway
Kolbjørn Engeland
The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, NVE, Oslo, Norway
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Thea Roksvåg, Ingelin Steinsland, and Kolbjørn Engeland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5391–5410, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5391-2022, 2022
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The goal of this work was to make a map of the mean annual runoff for Norway for a 30-year period. We first simulated runoff by using a process-based model that models the relationship between runoff, precipitation, temperature, and land use. Next, we corrected the map based on runoff observations from streams by using a statistical method. We were also able to use data from rivers that only had a few annual observations. We find that the statistical correction improves the runoff estimates.
Danielle M. Barna, Kolbjørn Engeland, Thomas Kneib, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, and Chong-Yu Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2335, 2023
Preprint archived
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Estimating flood quantiles at data-scarce sites often involves single-duration regression models. However, floodplain management and reservoir design, for example, need estimates at several durations, posing challenges. Our flexible generalized additive model (GAM) enhances accuracy and explanation, revealing that single-duration models may underperform elsewhere, emphasizing the need for adaptable approaches.
Thea Roksvåg, Ingelin Steinsland, and Kolbjørn Engeland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5391–5410, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5391-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this work was to make a map of the mean annual runoff for Norway for a 30-year period. We first simulated runoff by using a process-based model that models the relationship between runoff, precipitation, temperature, and land use. Next, we corrected the map based on runoff observations from streams by using a statistical method. We were also able to use data from rivers that only had a few annual observations. We find that the statistical correction improves the runoff estimates.
Trine J. Hegdahl, Kolbjørn Engeland, Ingelin Steinsland, and Andrew Singleton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-13, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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To provide improved and reliable flood forecasts we have evaluated ensemble forecasts for 119 catchments. We applied correction (processing) schemes to temperature, precipitation, and streamflow. The performance of the corrections schemes depends on catchments, season, and lead time. Postprocessing streamflow was less important for floods. Spring floods had a longer predictability than autumn floods, and the study revealed regions and seasons with potential for improvements.
Kolbjørn Engeland, Anna Aano, Ida Steffensen, Eivind Støren, and Øyvind Paasche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5595–5619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5595-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5595-2020, 2020
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We combine systematic, historical, and paleo information to obtain flood information from the last 10 300 years for the Glomma River in Norway. We identify periods with increased flood activity (4000–2000 years ago and the recent 1000 years) that correspond broadly to periods with low summer temperatures and glacier growth. The design floods in Glomma were more than 20 % higher during the 18th century than today. We suggest that trends in flood variability are linked to snow in late spring.
Trine J. Hegdahl, Kolbjørn Engeland, Ingelin Steinsland, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 723–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-723-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-723-2019, 2019
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Flood forecasting relies on high-quality meteorological data. This study shows how improved temperature forecasts improve streamflow forecasts in most cases, with the degree of improvement depending on season and region. To improve temperature forecasts further, catchment-specific methods should be developed to account for these seasonal and regional differences. In short, for climates with a seasonal snow cover, higher-quality temperature forecasts clearly improve flood forecasts.
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Stephanie Thiesen, Diego M. Vieira, Mirko Mälicke, Ralf Loritz, J. Florian Wellmann, and Uwe Ehret
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Elena Ridolfi, Hemendra Kumar, and András Bárdossy
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Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020
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Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Juan Camilo Restrepo, Aldemar Higgins, Jaime Escobar, Silvio Ospino, and Natalia Hoyos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2379–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2379-2019, 2019
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Jens Grundmann, Sebastian Hörning, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 225–237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-225-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-225-2019, 2019
Jost Hellwig and Kerstin Stahl
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Due to the lack of long-term observations, insights into changes of groundwater resources are obscured. In this paper we assess past and potential future changes in groundwater drought in headwater catchments using a baseflow approach. There are a few past trends which are highly dependent on the period of analysis. Catchments with short response times are found to have a higher sensitivity to projected seasonal precipitation shifts, urging for a local management based on response times.
Qiang Zhang, Xihui Gu, Vijay P. Singh, Peijun Shi, and Peng Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2637-2018, 2018
Qiang Li, Xiaohua Wei, Xin Yang, Krysta Giles-Hansen, Mingfang Zhang, and Wenfei Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1947–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1947-2018, 2018
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Topography plays an important role in determining the spatial heterogeneity of ecological, geomorphological, and hydrological processes. Topography plays a more dominant role in low flows than high flows. Our analysis also identified five significant TIs: perimeter, slope length factor, surface area, openness, and terrain characterization index. These can be used to compare watersheds when low flow assessments are conducted, specifically in snow-dominated regions.
Yan-Fang Sang, Fubao Sun, Vijay P. Singh, Ping Xie, and Jian Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 757–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-757-2018, 2018
Zhi Li and Jiming Jin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5531–5546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5531-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5531-2017, 2017
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We developed an efficient multisite and multivariate GCM downscaling method and generated climate change scenarios for SWAT to evaluate the streamflow variability within a watershed in China. The application of the ensemble techniques enables us to better quantify the model uncertainties. The peak values of precipitation and streamflow have a tendency to shift from the summer to spring season over the next 30 years. The number of extreme flooding and drought events will increase.
Nils-Otto Kitterød
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4195–4211, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4195-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4195-2017, 2017
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The GRANADA open-access database (NGU, 2016a) was used to derive point recordings of thickness of sediment above the bedrock D(u). For each D(u) the horizontal distance to nearest outcrop L(u) was derived from geological maps. The purpose was to utilize L(u) as a secondary function for estimation of D(u). Two estimation methods were employed: ordinary kriging (OK) and co-kriging (CK). A cross-validation analysis was performed to evaluate the additional information in the secondary function L(u).
Annalise G. Blum, Stacey A. Archfield, and Richard M. Vogel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3093–3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3093-2017, 2017
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Flow duration curves are ubiquitous in surface water hydrology for applications including water allocation and protection of ecosystem health. We identify three probability distributions that can provide a reasonable fit to daily streamflows across much of United States. These results help us understand of the behavior of daily streamflows and enhance our ability to predict streamflows at ungaged river locations.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
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In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Ana I. Requena, Fateh Chebana, and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1651–1668, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1651-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1651-2017, 2017
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The notion of a measure to quantify the degree of heterogeneity of a region from which information is required to estimate the magnitude of events at ungauged sites is introduced. These heterogeneity measures are needed to compare regions, evaluate the impact of particular sites, and rank the performance of delineating methods. A framework to define and assess their desirable properties is proposed. Several heterogeneity measures are presented and/or developed to be assessed, giving guidelines.
Joost V. L. Beckers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Erik Tijdeman, and Edwin Welles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3277–3287, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016, 2016
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Oceanic–atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the streamflow regime in many rivers around the world. A new method is presented for ENSO conditioning of the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method, which is often used for seasonal streamflow forecasting. The method was tested on three tributaries of the Columbia River, OR. Results show an improvement in forecast skill compared to the standard ESP.
William H. Farmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2721–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016, 2016
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The potential of geostatistical tools, leveraging the spatial structure and dependency of correlated time series, for the prediction of daily streamflow time series at unmonitored locations is explored. Simple geostatistical tools improve on traditional estimates of daily streamflow. The temporal evolution of spatial structure, including seasonal fluctuations, is also explored. The proposed method is contrasted with more advanced geostatistical methods and shown to be comparable.
B. N. Nka, L. Oudin, H. Karambiri, J. E. Paturel, and P. Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4707–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4707-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4707-2015, 2015
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The region of West Africa is undergoing important climate and environmental changes affecting the magnitude and occurrence of floods. This study aims to analyze the evolution of flood hazard in the region and to find links between flood hazards pattern and rainfall or vegetation index patterns.
D. E. Keller, A. M. Fischer, C. Frei, M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller, and R. Knutti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2163–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015, 2015
R. S. Smith, R. D. Moore, M. Weiler, and G. Jost
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1835–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1835-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1835-2014, 2014
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Short summary
Annual runoff is a measure of how much water flows through a river during a year and is an important quantity, e.g. when planning infrastructure. In this paper, we suggest a new statistical model for annual runoff estimation. The model exploits correlation between rivers and is able to detect whether the annual runoff in the target river follows repeated patterns over time relative to neighbouring rivers. In our work we show for what cases the latter represents a benefit over comparable methods.
Annual runoff is a measure of how much water flows through a river during a year and is an...
