Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2219-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2219-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Sensitivity and uncertainty in crop water footprint accounting: a case study for the Yellow River basin
Twente Water Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
M. M. Mekonnen
Twente Water Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
A. Y. Hoekstra
Twente Water Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
Related authors
Wei Wang, La Zhuo, Xiangxiang Ji, Zhiwei Yue, Zhibin Li, Meng Li, Huimin Zhang, Rong Gao, Chenjian Yan, Ping Zhang, and Pute Wu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4803–4827, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4803-2023, 2023
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The consumptive water footprint of crop production (WFCP) measures blue and green evapotranspiration of either irrigated or rainfed crops in time and space. A gridded monthly WFCP dataset for China is established. There are four improvements from existing datasets: (i) distinguishing water supply modes and irrigation techniques, (ii) distinguishing evaporation and transpiration, (iii) consisting of both total and unit WFCP, and (iv) providing benchmarks for unit WFCP by climatic zones.
Zhiwei Yue, Xiangxiang Ji, La Zhuo, Wei Wang, Zhibin Li, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4637–4656, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4637-2022, 2022
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Facing the increasing challenge of sustainable crop supply with limited water resources due to climate change, large-scale responses in the water footprint (WF) and WF benchmarks of crop production remain unclear. Here, we quantify the effects of future climate change scenarios on the WF and WF benchmarks of maize and wheat in time and space in China. Differences in crop growth between rain-fed and irrigated farms and among furrow-, sprinkler-, and micro-irrigated regimes are identified.
Xi Yang, La Zhuo, Pengxuan Xie, Hongrong Huang, Bianbian Feng, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-169-2021, 2021
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Maximizing economic benefits with higher water productivity or lower water footprint is the core sustainable goal of agricultural water resources management. Here we look at spatial and temporal variations and developments in both production-based (PWF) and economic value-based (EWF) water footprints of crops, by taking a case study for China. A synergy evaluation index is proposed to further quantitatively evaluate the synergies and trade-offs between PWF and EWF.
Pute Wu, La Zhuo, Guoping Zhang, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Yoshihide Wada, Xuerui Gao, Xining Zhao, Yubao Wang, and Shikun Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-436, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
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This study estimates the concomitant economic benefits and values to the crop-related (physical and virtual) water flows at a basin level. The net benefit of blue water was 13–42 % lower than that of green water in the case for the Yellow River Basin. The basin got a net income through the virtual water exports. It is necessary to manage the internal trade-offs between the water consumption and economic returns, for maximizing both the water use efficiency and water economic productivities.
La Zhuo, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, and Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4547–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4547-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Benchmarks for the water footprint (WF) of crop production can serve as a reference and be helpful in setting WF reduction targets. The study explores which environmental factors should be distinguished when determining benchmarks for the consumptive (green and blue) WF of crops. Through a case study for winter wheat in China over 1961–2008, we find that when determining benchmark levels for the consumptive WF of a crop, it is most useful to distinguish between different climate zones.
Wei Wang, La Zhuo, Xiangxiang Ji, Zhiwei Yue, Zhibin Li, Meng Li, Huimin Zhang, Rong Gao, Chenjian Yan, Ping Zhang, and Pute Wu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4803–4827, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The consumptive water footprint of crop production (WFCP) measures blue and green evapotranspiration of either irrigated or rainfed crops in time and space. A gridded monthly WFCP dataset for China is established. There are four improvements from existing datasets: (i) distinguishing water supply modes and irrigation techniques, (ii) distinguishing evaporation and transpiration, (iii) consisting of both total and unit WFCP, and (iv) providing benchmarks for unit WFCP by climatic zones.
Zhiwei Yue, Xiangxiang Ji, La Zhuo, Wei Wang, Zhibin Li, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4637–4656, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4637-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Facing the increasing challenge of sustainable crop supply with limited water resources due to climate change, large-scale responses in the water footprint (WF) and WF benchmarks of crop production remain unclear. Here, we quantify the effects of future climate change scenarios on the WF and WF benchmarks of maize and wheat in time and space in China. Differences in crop growth between rain-fed and irrigated farms and among furrow-, sprinkler-, and micro-irrigated regimes are identified.
Xi Yang, La Zhuo, Pengxuan Xie, Hongrong Huang, Bianbian Feng, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Maximizing economic benefits with higher water productivity or lower water footprint is the core sustainable goal of agricultural water resources management. Here we look at spatial and temporal variations and developments in both production-based (PWF) and economic value-based (EWF) water footprints of crops, by taking a case study for China. A synergy evaluation index is proposed to further quantitatively evaluate the synergies and trade-offs between PWF and EWF.
Hatem Chouchane, Maarten S. Krol, and Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3015–3031, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3015-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3015-2020, 2020
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Previous studies on water saving through food trade focussed either on comparing water productivities among countries or on analysing food trade in relation to national water endowments. Here, we consider, for the first time, both differences in water productivities and water endowments to analyse national comparative advantages. Our study reveals that blue water scarcity can be reduced to sustainable levels by changing cropping patterns while maintaining current levels of global production.
Pute Wu, La Zhuo, Guoping Zhang, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Yoshihide Wada, Xuerui Gao, Xining Zhao, Yubao Wang, and Shikun Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-436, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the concomitant economic benefits and values to the crop-related (physical and virtual) water flows at a basin level. The net benefit of blue water was 13–42 % lower than that of green water in the case for the Yellow River Basin. The basin got a net income through the virtual water exports. It is necessary to manage the internal trade-offs between the water consumption and economic returns, for maximizing both the water use efficiency and water economic productivities.
Abebe D. Chukalla, Maarten S. Krol, and Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3245–3259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3245-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3245-2018, 2018
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This paper provides the first detailed and comprehensive study regarding the potential for reducing the grey WF of crop production by changing management practice such as the nitrogen application rate, nitrogen form (inorganic N or manure N), tillage practice and irrigation strategy. The paper shows that although water pollution (grey WF) can be reduced dramatically, this comes together with a great yield reduction.
Abebe D. Chukalla, Maarten S. Krol, and Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3507-2017, 2017
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In the current study, we have developed a method to obtain marginal cost curves (MCCs) for WF reduction in crop production. The method is innovative by employing a model that combines soil water balance accounting and a crop growth model and assessing costs and WF reduction for all combinations of irrigation techniques, irrigation strategies and mulching practices. While this approach has been used in the field of constructing MCCs for carbon footprint reduction, this has never been done before.
La Zhuo, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, and Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4547–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4547-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Benchmarks for the water footprint (WF) of crop production can serve as a reference and be helpful in setting WF reduction targets. The study explores which environmental factors should be distinguished when determining benchmarks for the consumptive (green and blue) WF of crops. Through a case study for winter wheat in China over 1961–2008, we find that when determining benchmark levels for the consumptive WF of a crop, it is most useful to distinguish between different climate zones.
A. D. Chukalla, M. S. Krol, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4877–4891, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4877-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4877-2015, 2015
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This paper provides the first detailed and comprehensive study regarding the potential for reducing the consumptive WF of a crop by changing management practice such as irrigation technique, irrigation strategy and mulching practice. If we consider all the cases of drip or subsurface drip irrigation with synthetic mulching, including all crops and environments, we find an average consumptive WF reduction of 28-29%. The corresponding blue WF reduction is 44% and the green WF reduction 14%.
J. F. Schyns, A. Y. Hoekstra, and M. J. Booij
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4581–4608, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4581-2015, 2015
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The paper draws attention to the fact that green water (soil moisture returning to the atmosphere through evaporation) is a scarce resource, because its availability is limited and there are competing demands for green water. Around 80 indicators of green water availability and scarcity are reviewed and classified based on their scope and purpose of measurement. This is useful in order to properly include limitations in green water availability in water scarcity assessments.
M. C. Demirel, M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 275–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015, 2015
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This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET forecasts and initial model conditions.
H. H. G. Savenije, A. Y. Hoekstra, and P. van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 319–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-319-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-319-2014, 2014
M. C. Demirel, M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4241–4257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4241-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4241-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
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Faced with the problem of uncertainty in the field of water resources management, this paper proposes the Copula Multi-objective Robust Optimization and Probabilistic Analysis of Robustness (CM-ROPAR) approach to obtain robust water allocation schemes based on the uncertainty of drought and wet encounters and the uncertainty of inflow. We believe that this research article not only highlights the significance of the CM-ROPAR approach but also provides a new concept for uncertainty analysis.
Laura Gil-García, Nazaret M. Montilla-López, Carlos Gutiérrez-Martín, Ángel Sánchez-Daniel, Pablo Saiz-Santiago, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Julio Pindado, and C. Dionisio Pérez-Blanco
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Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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This paper presents an interdisciplinary model for quantifying uncertainties in water allocation under climate change. It combines climate, hydrological, and microeconomic experiments with a decision support system. Multi-model analyses reveal potential futures for water management policies, emphasizing nonlinear climate responses. As illustrated in the Douro River Basin, minor water allocation changes have significant economic impacts, stresssing the need for adaptation strategies.
Gwyneth Matthews, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, Sarah L. Dance, Toni Jurlina, Cinzia Mazzetti, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2939–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, 2022
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Marina R. L. Mautner, Laura Foglia, and Jonathan D. Herman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1319–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, 2022
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Sensitivity analysis can be harnessed to evaluate effects of model uncertainties on planning outcomes. This study explores how observation and parameter uncertainty propagate through a hydrogeologic model to influence the ranking of decision alternatives. Using global sensitivity analysis and evaluation of aquifer management objectives, we evaluate how physical properties of the model and choice of observations for calibration can lead to variations in decision-relevant model outputs.
Alessandro Amaranto, Dinis Juizo, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, 2022
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This study aims at designing water supply strategies that are robust against climate, social, and land use changes in a sub-Saharan river basin. We found that robustness analysis supports the discovery of policies enhancing the resilience of water resources systems, benefiting the agricultural, energy, and urban sectors. We show how energy sustainability is affected by water availability, while urban and irrigation resilience also depends on infrastructural interventions and land use changes.
Thibaut Lachaut and Amaury Tilmant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6421–6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, 2021
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Response surfaces are increasingly used to identify the hydroclimatic conditions leading to a water resources system's failure. Partitioning the surface usually requires performance thresholds that are not necessarily crisp. We propose a methodology that combines the inherent uncertainty of response surfaces with the ambiguity of performance thresholds. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a multireservoir system in Canada for which some performance thresholds are imprecise.
Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018
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Floods and droughts cause significant damages and pose risks to lives worldwide. In a climate change context this work identifies hotspots across Great Britain, i.e. places expected to be impacted by an increase in floods and droughts. By the 2080s the western coast of England and Wales and northeastern Scotland would experience more floods in winter and droughts in autumn, with a higher increase in drought hazard, showing a need to adapt water management policies in light of climate change.
Seungwoo Chang, Wendy Graham, Jeffrey Geurink, Nisai Wanakule, and Tirusew Asefa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4793–4813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, 2018
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It is important to understand potential impacts of climate change and human water use on streamflow and groundwater levels. This study used climate models with an integrated hydrologic model to project future streamflow and groundwater level in Tampa Bay for a variety of future water use scenarios. Impacts of different climate projections on streamflow were found to be much stronger than the impacts of different human water use scenarios, but both were significant for groundwater projection.
Jessica E. Cherry, Corrie Knapp, Sarah Trainor, Andrea J. Ray, Molly Tedesche, and Susan Walker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 133–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-133-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-133-2017, 2017
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We know that climate is changing quickly in the Far North (the Arctic and sub-Arctic). Hydropower continues to grow in this region because water resources are perceived to be plentiful. However, with changes in glacier extent and permafrost, and more extreme events, will those resources prove reliable into the future? This study amasses the evidence that quantitative hydrology modeling and uncertainty assessment have matured to the point where they should be used in water resource planning.
Claudio I. Meier, Jorge Sebastián Moraga, Geri Pranzini, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4177–4190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, 2016
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We show that the derived distribution approach is able to characterize the interannual variability of precipitation much better than fitting a probabilistic model to annual rainfall totals, as long as continuously gauged data are available. The method is a useful tool for describing temporal changes in the distribution of annual rainfall, as it works for records as short as 5 years, and therefore does not require any stationarity assumption over long periods.
Usman T. Khan and Caterina Valeo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2267–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2267-2016, 2016
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This paper contains a new two-step method to construct fuzzy numbers using observational data. In addition an existing fuzzy neural network is modified to account for fuzzy number inputs. This is combined with possibility-theory based intervals to train the network. Furthermore, model output and a defuzzification technique is used to estimate the risk of low Dissolved Oxygen so that water resource managers can implement strategies to prevent the occurrence of low Dissolved Oxygen.
M. Biasutti and R. Seager
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2945–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2945-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2945-2015, 2015
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We estimate future changes in US erosivity from the most recent ensemble projections of daily and monthly rainfall accumulation. The expectation of overall increase in erosivity is confirmed by these calculations, but a quantitative assessment is marred by large uncertainties. Specifically, the uncertainty in the method of estimation of erosivity is more consequential than that deriving from the spread in climate simulations, and leads to changes of uncertain sign in parts of the south.
M. C. Peel, R. Srikanthan, T. A. McMahon, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1615–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015, 2015
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We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty
T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015, 2015
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Here we assess GCM performance from a hydrologic perspective. We identify five better performing CMIP3 GCMs that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature over global land regions for future hydrologic simulation. GCM performance in reproducing observed mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and mean monthly precipitation and temperature was assessed and ranked, and five better performing GCMs were identified.
L. J. M. Peeters, G. M. Podger, T. Smith, T. Pickett, R. H. Bark, and S. M. Cuddy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3777–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, 2014
C. A. Scott, S. Vicuña, I. Blanco-Gutiérrez, F. Meza, and C. Varela-Ortega
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1339–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014, 2014
N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3605–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, 2013
D. Zhu, D. Z. Peng, and I. D. Cluckie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1445–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1445-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1445-2013, 2013
B. L. Harding, A. W. Wood, and J. R. Prairie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3989–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012, 2012
J.-S. Yang, E.-S. Chung, S.-U. Kim, and T.-W. Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-801-2012, 2012
S. Quiroga, Z. Fernández-Haddad, and A. Iglesias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-505-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-505-2011, 2011
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