Articles | Volume 28, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 09 Jan 2024
| 09 Jan 2024
Projecting sediment export from two highly glacierized alpine catchments under climate change: exploring non-parametric regression as an analysis tool
Lena Katharina Schmidt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Till Francke
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Peter Martin Grosse
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Axel Bronstert
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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Erwin Rottler, Axel Bronstert, Gerd Bürger, and Oldrich Rakovec
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The mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) forced with an ensemble of climate projection scenarios was used to assess potential future changes in flood seasonality in the Rhine River basin. Results indicate that future changes in flood characteristics are controlled by increases in precipitation sums and diminishing snowpacks. The decreases in snowmelt can counterbalance increasing precipitation, resulting in only small and transient changes in streamflow maxima.
Benjamin Fersch, Till Francke, Maik Heistermann, Martin Schrön, Veronika Döpper, Jannis Jakobi, Gabriele Baroni, Theresa Blume, Heye Bogena, Christian Budach, Tobias Gränzig, Michael Förster, Andreas Güntner, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Mandy Kasner, Markus Köhli, Birgit Kleinschmit, Harald Kunstmann, Amol Patil, Daniel Rasche, Lena Scheiffele, Ulrich Schmidt, Sandra Szulc-Seyfried, Jannis Weimar, Steffen Zacharias, Marek Zreda, Bernd Heber, Ralf Kiese, Vladimir Mares, Hannes Mollenhauer, Ingo Völksch, and Sascha Oswald
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Short summary
How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.
How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate...
