Articles | Volume 27, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 21 Sep 2023
| 21 Sep 2023
Uncertainty in three dimensions: the challenges of communicating probabilistic flood forecast maps
Valérie Jean
Unité départementale des sciences de la gestion, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Lévis, Canada
Marie-Amélie Boucher
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Building Engineering, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Canada
Anissa Frini
Unité départementale des sciences de la gestion, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Lévis, Canada
Dominic Roussel
Quebec Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les Changements Climatiques, Québec, Canada
Related authors
No articles found.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Jean Odry, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Simon Lachance-Cloutier, Richard Turcotte, and Pierre-Yves St-Louis
The Cryosphere, 16, 3489–3506, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3489-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The research deals with the assimilation of in-situ local snow observations in a large-scale spatialized snow modeling framework over the province of Quebec (eastern Canada). The methodology is based on proposing multiple spatialized snow scenarios using the snow model and weighting them according to the available observations. The paper especially focuses on the spatial coherence of the snow scenario proposed in the framework.
Jing Xu, François Anctil, and Marie-Amélie Boucher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1001–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is compared with a conventional post-processing method of affine kernel dressing. NSGA-II showed its superiority in improving the forecast skill and communicating trade-offs with end-users. It allows the enhancement of the forecast quality since it allows for setting multiple specific objectives from scratch. This flexibility should be considered as a reason to implement hydrologic ensemble prediction systems (H-EPSs).
Konstantin F. F. Ntokas, Jean Odry, Marie-Amélie Boucher, and Camille Garnaud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3017–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3017-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3017-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This article shows a conversion model of snow depth into snow water equivalent (SWE) using an ensemble of artificial neural networks. The novelty is a direct estimation of SWE and the improvement of the estimation by in-depth analysis of network structures. The usage of an ensemble allows a probabilistic estimation and, therefore, a deeper insight. It is a follow-up study of a similar study over Quebec but extends it to the whole area of Canada and improves it further.
Rachel Bazile, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Luc Perreault, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.
Simon Matte, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Vincent Boucher, and Thomas-Charles Fortier Filion
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2967–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we set the basis of an alternative framework to replace the popular cost-loss ratio for the economic assessment of flood forecasting systems. The C-L ratio implicitly considers the decision maker to be risk-neutral, whereas it is rarely the case in real-life emergency situations. Instead of the cost-loss ratio, we propose using a utility function. We show that the decision-maker’s level of risk aversion is a crucial factor in the assessment of the economic value of flood forecasts.
Antoine Thiboult, François Anctil, and Marie-Amélie Boucher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1809-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Issuing a good hydrological forecast is challenging because of the numerous sources of uncertainty that lay in the description of the hydrometeorological processes. Several modeling techniques are investigated in this paper to assess how they contribute to the forecast quality. It is shown that the best modeling approach uses several dissimilar techniques that each tackle one source of uncertainty.
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Theory development
Drought intensity-duration-frequency curves based on deficit in precipitation and streamflow for water resources management
To which extent are socio-hydrology studies truly integrative? The case of natural hazards and disaster research
Power and empowerment in transdisciplinary research: a negotiated approach for peri-urban groundwater problems in the Ganges Delta
A socio-hydrological framework for understanding conflict and cooperation with respect to transboundary rivers
A review of the applicability of the motivations and abilities (MOTA) framework for assessing the implementation success of water resources management plans and policies
Social dilemmas and poor water quality in household water systems
The limits to large-scale supply augmentation: exploring the crossroads of conflicting urban water system development pathways
Structural gaps of water resources knowledge in global river basins
Water sharing policies conditioned on hydrologic variability to inform reservoir operations
Characteristics of droughts in Argentina's core crop region
Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture
Comparison of published palaeoclimate records suitable for reconstructing annual to sub-decadal hydroclimatic variability in eastern Australia: implications for water resource management and planning
Unraveling intractable water conflicts: the entanglement of science and politics in decision-making on large hydraulic infrastructure
A Water-Energy-Food Nexus approach for conducting trade-off analysis: Morocco's phosphate industry in the Khouribga region
A watershed classification approach that looks beyond hydrology: application to a semi-arid, agricultural region in Canada
Role-play simulations as an aid to achieve complex learning outcomes in hydrological science
Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions
Geostatistical interpolation by quantile kriging
Flooded by jargon: how the interpretation of water-related terms differs between hydrology experts and the general audience
Challenges to implementing bottom-up flood risk decision analysis frameworks: how strong are social networks of flooding professionals?
Socio-hydrological spaces in the Jamuna River floodplain in Bangladesh
An improved method for calculating the regional crop water footprint based on a hydrological process analysis
How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers
An alternative approach for socio-hydrology: case study research
HESS Opinions: A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change
Socio-hydrological perspectives of the co-evolution of humans and groundwater in Cangzhou, North China Plain
Towards systematic planning of small-scale hydrological intervention-based research
Geoscience on television: a review of science communication literature in the context of geosciences
A "mental models" approach to the communication of subsurface hydrology and hazards
Review and classification of indicators of green water availability and scarcity
Socio-hydrological water balance for water allocation between human and environmental purposes in catchments
Long-term monitoring of nitrate transport to drainage from three agricultural clayey till fields
Complex network theory, streamflow, and hydrometric monitoring system design
Hydrological drought types in cold climates: quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative survey of impacts
Linked hydrologic and social systems that support resilience of traditional irrigation communities
Assessing blue and green water utilisation in wheat production of China from the perspectives of water footprint and total water use
A new framework for resolving conflicts over transboundary rivers using bankruptcy methods
Quantifying the human impact on water resources: a critical review of the water footprint concept
Endogenous change: on cooperation and water availability in two ancient societies
Socio-hydrology and the science–policy interface: a case study of the Saskatchewan River basin
Relationships between environmental governance and water quality in a growing metropolitan area of the Pacific Northwest, USA
A journey of a thousand miles begins with one small step – human agency, hydrological processes and time in socio-hydrology
Socio-hydrologic perspectives of the co-evolution of humans and water in the Tarim River basin, Western China: the Taiji–Tire model
Acting, predicting and intervening in a socio-hydrological world
Evolving water science in the Anthropocene
Hard paths, soft paths or no paths? Cross-cultural perceptions of water solutions
Reconstructing the duty of water: a study of emergent norms in socio-hydrology
Water consumption from hydropower plants – review of published estimates and an assessment of the concept
Water Accounting Plus (WA+) – a water accounting procedure for complex river basins based on satellite measurements
Cyanobacterial and microcystins dynamics following the application of hydrogen peroxide to waste stabilisation ponds
Yonca Cavus, Kerstin Stahl, and Hafzullah Aksoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-107, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
With intensified extremes under change water demand increases. Every drop of water is much more valuable than before when drought is experienced particularly. We developed drought intensity-duration-frequency curves by using physical indicators, the deficit in precipitation and streamflow, for a more straightforward interpretation. Tests with the observed major droughts in two climatologically different catchments confirmed the practical applicability of the curves under drought conditions.
Franciele Maria Vanelli, Masato Kobiyama, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2301–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a systematic literature review of socio-hydrological studies applied to natural hazards and disaster research. Results indicate that there is a wide range of understanding of what
socialmeans in socio-hydrology, and monodisciplinary studies prevail. We expect to encourage socio-hydrologists to investigate different disasters using a more integrative approach that combines natural and social sciences tools by involving stakeholders and broadening the use of mixed methods.
Leon M. Hermans, Vishal Narain, Remi Kempers, Sharlene L. Gomes, Poulomi Banerjee, Rezaul Hasan, Mashfiqus Salehin, Shah Alam Khan, A. T. M. Zakir Hossain, Kazi Faisal Islam, Sheikh Nazmul Huda, Partha Sarathi Banerjee, Binoy Majumder, Soma Majumder, and Wil A. H. Thissen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Transdisciplinary water research involves the co-creation of knowledge between various stakeholders to advance science and resolve complex societal problems. In this paper, we describe challenges and responses to address power and politics as part of transdisciplinary research. This is done based on a project that combined known principles for transdisciplinary research with a negotiated approach to support groundwater management in peri-urban villages in India and Bangladesh.
Yongping Wei, Jing Wei, Gen Li, Shuanglei Wu, David Yu, Mohammad Ghoreishi, You Lu, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2131–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is increasing tension among the riparian countries of transboundary rivers. This article proposes a socio-hydrological framework that incorporates the slow and less visible societal processes into existing hydro-economic models, revealing the slow and hidden feedbacks between societal and hydrological processes. This framework will contribute to process-based understanding of the complex mechanism that drives conflict and cooperation in transboundary river management.
John Conallin, Nathan Ning, Jennifer Bond, Nicholas Pawsey, Lee J. Baumgartner, Dwi Atminarso, Hannah McPherson, Wayne Robinson, and Garry Thorncraft
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1357–1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1357-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Implementation failure is well known to be a major barrier to the success of water resource plans and policies. The motivations and abilities (MOTA) approach attempts to address this barrier, by providing a multi-stakeholder, multilevel tool to assess triggers, motivations and abilities supporting the implementation feasibility of plans. We review existing MOTA applications in various water management contexts and propose several complementary add-in applications to complement the approach.
Gopal Penny, Diogo Bolster, and Marc F. Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1187–1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1187-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In residential areas with a high housing density, septic contamination of private wells raises multiple health concerns. Often, few regulations exist to ensure good water quality in such systems, and water quality is often left to the homeowner. To address the potential obstacles to effective management, we identify situations where misplaced economic incentives hinder effective policy to support water quality in such systems.
Jonatan Godinez Madrigal, Nora Van Cauwenbergh, Jaime Hoogesteger, Pamela Claure Gutierrez, and Pieter van der
Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 885–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-885-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Urban water systems are facing an increasing pressure on their water resources to guarantee safe and sufficient water access. Water managers often use tried and tested strategies like large supply augmentation infrastructure to address water problems. However, these projects do not address key problems and cause water conflicts. We conducted transdisciplinary research to show how water conflicts can change the development pathway of urban water systems by implementing alternative solutions.
Shuanglei Wu, Yongping Wei, and Xuemei Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5381–5398, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5381-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using publications indexed in the Web of Science, we investigated water resources knowledge development at the river basin scale since 1900 and found that legacy-driven knowledge structures, increasingly homogenized management issues, and largely static cross-disciplinary collaborations dominated highly researched river basins. A structural shift of water resources knowledge development to cope with the rapidly changing hydrological systems and associated management issues is urgently needed.
Guang Yang and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3617–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3617-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There is a clear trade-off between reservoir hydropower generation and the variability in reservoir water release, which can be used to derive water-sharing policies and provide critical insights during riparian negotiations regarding downstream flows supplementing during drought conditions. This type of water-sharing policy can effectively mitigate the water use conflicts between upstream and downstream countries, especially during drought periods.
Leandro Carlos Sgroi, Miguel Angel Lovino, Ernesto Hugo Berbery, and Gabriela Viviana Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2475–2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2475-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2475-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study advances the understanding and impacts of drought on wheat, corn, and soybean yields over Argentina's main crop region, where crop production is more intense and represents the main contribution to the country's gross domestic product. Our analysis focuses on drought properties, including the magnitude, frequency at different timescales, duration, and severity. This new approach can be helpful for regional decision-making and planning by water managers and in agricultural contexts.
Iman Haqiqi, Danielle S. Grogan, Thomas W. Hertel, and Wolfram Schlenker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 551–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-551-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-551-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines a fine-scale weather product with outputs of a hydrological model to construct functional metrics of individual and compound hydroclimatic extremes for agriculture. Then, a yield response function is estimated with individual and compound metrics focusing on corn in the United States during the 1981–2015 period. The findings suggest that metrics of compound hydroclimatic extremes are better predictors of corn yield variations than metrics of individual extremes.
Anna L. Flack, Anthony S. Kiem, Tessa R. Vance, Carly R. Tozer, and Jason L. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5699–5712, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5699-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5699-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoclimate information was analysed for eastern Australia to determine when (and where) there was agreement about the timing of wet and dry epochs in the pre-instrumental period (1000–1899). The results show that instrumental records (~1900–present) underestimate the full range of rainfall variability that has occurred. When coupled with projected impacts of climate change and growing demands, these results highlight major challenges for water resource management and infrastructure.
Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Nora Van Cauwenbergh, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4903–4921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4903-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our research studies whether science depoliticizes water conflicts or instead conflicts politicize science–policy processes. We analyze a water conflict due to the development of large infrastructure. We interviewed key actors in the conflict and replicated the results of water resources models developed to solve the conflict. We found that knowledge produced in isolation has no positive effect in transforming the conflict; instead, its potential could be enhanced if produced collaboratively.
Sang-Hyun Lee, Amjad T. Assi, Bassel Daher, Fatima E. Mengoub, and Rabi H. Mohtar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4727–4741, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4727-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4727-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Proper water availability for the right place and time in a changing climate requires analysis of complex scientific, technical, socioeconomic, regulatory, and political issues. A Water-Energy-Food Nexus Phosphate (WEF-P) Tool, based on integrating supply chain processes, transportation, and water–energy footprints could assess the various scenarios to offer an effective means of ensuring sustainable management of limited resources to both agricultural areas and the phosphate industry.
Jared D. Wolfe, Kevin R. Shook, Chris Spence, and Colin J. Whitfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3945–3967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3945-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3945-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Watershed classification can identify regions expected to respond similarly to disturbance. Methods should extend beyond hydrology to include other environmental questions, such as ecology and water quality. We developed a classification for the Canadian Prairie and identified seven classes defined by watershed characteristics, including elevation, climate, wetland density, and surficial geology. Results provide a basis for evaluating watershed response to land management and climate condition.
Arvid Bring and Steve W. Lyon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2369–2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2369-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2369-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrology education strives to teach students both quantitative ability and complex professional skills. Our research shows that role-play simulations are useful to make students able to integrate various analytical skills in complicated settings while not interfering with traditional teaching that fosters their ability to solve mathematical problems. Despite this there are several potential challenging areas in using role-plays, and we therefore suggest ways around these potential roadblocks.
Jin-Young Hyun, Shih-Yu Huang, Yi-Chen Ethan Yang, Vincent Tidwell, and Jordan Macknick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2261–2278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies a two-way coupled agent-based model (ABM) with a river-reservoir management model (RiverWare) to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions using the Bayesian inference mapping joined with the cost–loss model. The calibration results capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes and suggest that the proposed framework improves the representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs.
Henning Lebrenz and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1633-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1633-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many variables, e.g., in hydrology, geology, and social sciences, are only observed at a few distinct measurement locations, and their actual distribution in the entire space remains unknown. We introduce the new geostatistical interpolation method of
quantile kriging, providing an improved estimator and associated uncertainty. It can also host variables, which would not fulfill the implicit presumptions of the traditional geostatistical interpolation methods.
Gemma J. Venhuizen, Rolf Hut, Casper Albers, Cathelijne R. Stoof, and Ionica Smeets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-393-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-393-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Do experts attach the same meaning as laypeople to terms often used in hydrology such as "river", "flooding" and "downstream"? In this study a survey was completed by 34 experts and 119 laypeople to answer this question. We found that there are some profound differences between experts and laypeople: words like "river" and "river basin" turn out to have a different interpretation between the two groups. However, when using pictures there is much more agreement between the groups.
James O. Knighton, Osamu Tsuda, Rebecca Elliott, and M. Todd Walter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5657–5673, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5657-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Decision-making for flood risk management is often the collective effort of professionals within government, NGOs, private practice, and advocacy groups. Our research investigates differences among flood experts within Tompkins County, New York (USA). We explore how they differ in their perceptions of flooding risk, desired project outcomes, and knowledge. We observe substantial differences among experts, and recommend formally acknowledging these perceptions when engaging in flood management.
Md Ruknul Ferdous, Anna Wesselink, Luigia Brandimarte, Kymo Slager, Margreet Zwarteveen, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5159–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5159-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5159-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Socio-hydrological space (SHS) is a concept that enriches the study of socio-hydrology because it helps understand the detailed human–water interactions in a specific location. The concept suggests that the interactions between society and water are place-bound because of differences in social processes and river dynamics. This would be useful for developing interventions under disaster management, but also other development goals. SHS provides a new way of looking at socio-hydrological systems.
Xiao-Bo Luan, Ya-Li Yin, Pu-Te Wu, Shi-Kun Sun, Yu-Bao Wang, Xue-Rui Gao, and Jing Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5111–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5111-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At present, the water footprint calculated by the quantitative method of crop production water footprint is only a field-scale water footprint, which does not contain all the water consumption of the crop growth process, so its calculated crop production water footprint is incomplete. In this study, the hydrological model SWAT was used to analyze the real water consumption in the course of crop growth, so that the actual water consumption of the crops could be more accurately reflected.
Hafsa Ahmed Munia, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Naho Mirumachi, Yoshihide Wada, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2795-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2795-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
An analytical framework is developed drawing on ideas of regime shifts from resilience literature to understand the transition between cases where water scarcity is or is not experienced depending on whether water from upstream is or is not available. The analysis shows 386 million people dependent on upstream water to avoid possible stress and 306 million people dependent on upstream water to avoid possible shortage. This provides insights into implications for negotiations between sub-basins.
Erik Mostert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 317–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-317-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper argues for an alternative approach for socio‒hydrology: detailed case study research. Detailed case study research can increase understanding of how society interacts with hydrology, offers more levers for management than coupled modelling, and facilitates interdisciplinary cooperation. The paper presents a case study of the Dommel Basin in the Netherlands and Belgium and compares this with a published model of the Kissimmee Basin in Florida.
Feng Mao, Julian Clark, Timothy Karpouzoglou, Art Dewulf, Wouter Buytaert, and David Hannah
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3655–3670, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3655-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3655-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The paper aims to propose a conceptual framework that supports nuanced understanding and analytical assessment of resilience in socio-hydrological contexts. We identify three framings of resilience for different human–water couplings, which have distinct application fields and are used for different water management challenges. To assess and improve socio-hydrological resilience in each type, we introduce a
resilience canvasas a heuristic tool to design bespoke management strategies.
Songjun Han, Fuqiang Tian, Ye Liu, and Xianhui Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3619–3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3619-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3619-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The history of the co-evolution of the coupled human–groundwater system in Cangzhou (a region with the most serious depression cone in the North China Plain) is analyzed with a particular focus on how the groundwater crisis unfolded and how people attempted to settle the crisis. The evolution of the system was substantially impacted by two droughts. Further restoration of groundwater environment could be anticipated, but the occurrence of drought still remains an undetermined external forcing.
Kharis Erasta Reza Pramana and Maurits Willem Ertsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4093–4115, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4093-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of human actions in small-scale water development initiatives and the associated hydrological research activities are basically unspecified. We argue that more explicit attention helps to design more appropriate answers to the challenges faced in field studies. A more systematic approach is proposed that would be useful when designing field projects: two sets of questions on (1) dealing with surprises and (2) cost–benefits of data gathering.
Rolf Hut, Anne M. Land-Zandstra, Ionica Smeets, and Cathelijne R. Stoof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2507–2518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2507-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2507-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To help geo-scientists prepare for TV appearances, we review the scientific literature on effective science communication related to TV. We identify six main themes: scientist motivation, target audience, narratives and storytelling, jargon and information transfer, relationship between scientists and journalists, and stereotypes of scientists on TV. We provide a detailed case study as illustration for each theme.
Hazel Gibson, Iain S. Stewart, Sabine Pahl, and Alison Stokes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1737-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1737-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides empirical evidence for the value of using a psychology-based approach to communication of hydrology and hazards. It demonstrates the use of the "mental models" approach to risk assessment used in a regional geoscience context to explore the conceptions of the geological subsurface between experts and non-experts, and how that impacts on communication.
J. F. Schyns, A. Y. Hoekstra, and M. J. Booij
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4581–4608, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4581-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper draws attention to the fact that green water (soil moisture returning to the atmosphere through evaporation) is a scarce resource, because its availability is limited and there are competing demands for green water. Around 80 indicators of green water availability and scarcity are reviewed and classified based on their scope and purpose of measurement. This is useful in order to properly include limitations in green water availability in water scarcity assessments.
S. Zhou, Y. Huang, Y. Wei, and G. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3715–3726, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3715-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3715-2015, 2015
V. Ernstsen, P. Olsen, and A. E. Rosenbom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3475–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3475-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3475-2015, 2015
M. J. Halverson and S. W. Fleming
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3301–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3301-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3301-2015, 2015
A. F. Van Loon, S. W. Ploum, J. Parajka, A. K. Fleig, E. Garnier, G. Laaha, and H. A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1993–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological drought types in cold climates have complex causing factors and impacts. In Austria and Norway, a lack of snowmelt is mainly related to below-normal winter precipitation, and a lack of glaciermelt is mainly related to below-normal summer temperature. These and other hydrological drought types impacted hydropower production, water supply, and agriculture in Europe and the US in the recent and far past. For selected drought events in Norway impacts could be coupled to causing factors.
A. Fernald, S. Guldan, K. Boykin, A. Cibils, M. Gonzales, B. Hurd, S. Lopez, C. Ochoa, M. Ortiz, J. Rivera, S. Rodriguez, and C. Steele
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 293–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-293-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-293-2015, 2015
X. C. Cao, P. T. Wu, Y. B. Wang, and X. N. Zhao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3165–3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3165-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3165-2014, 2014
K. Madani, M. Zarezadeh, and S. Morid
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3055–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3055-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3055-2014, 2014
J. Chenoweth, M. Hadjikakou, and C. Zoumides
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2325–2342, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2325-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2325-2014, 2014
S. Pande and M. Ertsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1745–1760, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1745-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1745-2014, 2014
P. Gober and H. S. Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1413–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1413-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1413-2014, 2014
H. Chang, P. Thiers, N. R. Netusil, J. A. Yeakley, G. Rollwagen-Bollens, S. M. Bollens, and S. Singh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1383–1395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1383-2014, 2014
M. W. Ertsen, J. T. Murphy, L. E. Purdue, and T. Zhu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1369–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1369-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1369-2014, 2014
Y. Liu, F. Tian, H. Hu, and M. Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1289–1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1289-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1289-2014, 2014
S. N. Lane
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 927–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-927-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-927-2014, 2014
H. H. G. Savenije, A. Y. Hoekstra, and P. van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 319–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-319-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-319-2014, 2014
A. Wutich, A. C. White, D. D. White, K. L. Larson, A. Brewis, and C. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 109–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-109-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-109-2014, 2014
J. L. Jr. Wescoat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4759–4768, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4759-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4759-2013, 2013
T. H. Bakken, Å. Killingtveit, K. Engeland, K. Alfredsen, and A. Harby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3983–4000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3983-2013, 2013
P. Karimi, W. G. M. Bastiaanssen, and D. Molden
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2459-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2459-2013, 2013
D. J. Barrington, A. Ghadouani, and G. N. Ivey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2097–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2097-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2097-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Anderson-Berry, L., Achilles, T., Panduck, S., Mackie, B., Canterford, S.,
Leck, A., and Brid, D.: Sending a message : how signifiant events have
influenced the warnings landscape in Australia, Int. J. Disast. Risk
Re., 30, 50–17, 2018. a
Belin, P., Verrhiest-Leblanc, G., and Valantin, P.-Y.: Exploitation des outils
d’anticipation des phénomènes pour l’aide à l’anticipation, La
Houille Blanche, 3-4, 31–38, 2019. a
Beven, K.: Rainfall-runoff modelling: a primer, 2nd edn., Wiley-Blackwell, ISBN 978-0-470-71459-1,
2012. a
Crotti, G., Leandro, J., and Kumar Bhola, P.: A 2D real-time flood forecast
framework based on a hybrid historical and synthetic runoff database, Water,
12, 114, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010114, 2019. a
Données Québec: Bassins hydrographiques multiéchelles du Québec,
https://www.donneesquebec.ca/recherche/fr/dataset/bassins-hydrographiques-multi-echelles-du-quebec (last access: 10 August 2022),
2018. a
Engeset, R. V., Pfuhl, G., Landrø, M., Mannberg, A., and Hetland, A.: Communicating public avalanche warnings – what works?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2537–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, 2018. a
ESRI: World water bodies,
https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=e750071279bf450cbd510454a80f2e63 (last access: 10 August 2022),
2022. a
Frini, A., Besnard, C., Benabbou, L., Adda, M., and Buffin-Bélanger, T.: Outil
de priorisation des bassins versants pour la gestion des risques des
inondations dans le cadre de la mise en œuvre de l’initiative INFO-Crue
au Québec, Tech. rep., Université du Québec à Rimouski, Ouranos,
Montréal, https://www.ouranos.ca/wp-content/uploads/RapportFrini2019.pdf (last access: 10 August 2022),
2019. a
Grounds, M., Joslyn, S., and Otsuka, K.: Probabilistic interval forecasts: an
individual differences approach to understanding forecast communication, Adv.
Meteorol., 2017, 3932565, https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/3932565, 2017. a
Haer, T., Botzen, W., and Aerts, J.: The effectiveness of flood risk
communication strategies and the influence of social networks-Insights from
an agent-based model, Environ. Sci. Policy, 60, 44–52, 2016. a
Hennink, M. and Kaiser, B.: Sample sizes for saturation in qualitative
research: A systematic review of empirical tests, Soc. Sci. Med., 292,
114523, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114523, 2022. a, b, c
Joslyn, S., Nadav-Greenberg, L., and Nichols, R.: Probability of precipitation
– assessment and enhancement of end-user understanding, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 90, 185–194, 2009. a
Kox, T., Kempf, H., Lüder, C., Hagedorn, R., and Gerhold, L.: Towards
user-oriented weather warnings, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 30, 74–80,
2018. a
Matte, S., Boucher, M.-A., Boucher, V., and Fortier Filion, T.-C.: Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2967–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017, 2017. a
Ministère de la Sécurité publique: Plan d'action en matière de sécurité
civile relatif aux inondations. Vers une société québécoise plus
résiliente aux catastrophes, Tech. Rep. SC-082 (2018-02), Government of
Québec, ISBN 978-2-550-80638-7,
https://cdn-contenu.quebec.ca/cdn-contenu/adm/min/securite-publique/publications-adm/plans-action/PL_action_inondations_MSP_2018.pdf?1576085553 (last access: 10 August 2022),
2018. a
Morss, R., Lazo, J., and Demuth, J.: Examining the use of weather forecasts in
decision scenarios: results from a US survey with implications for
uncertainty communication, Meteorol. Appl., 17, 149–162, 2010. a
Møyner Hohle, S. and Halvor Teigen, K.: More than 50 % or less than 70 %
chance: pragmatic implications of single-bound probability estimates, J.
Behav. Decis. Making, 31, 138–150, 2018. a
November, V., Azémar, A., Lecacheux, S., and Winter, T.: Le couple
anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et
l’incertitude, EchoGéo, 51, https://doi.org/10.4000/echogeo.18949, 2020. a
Padilla, L., Creem-Regehr, S., Hegarty, M., and Stefanucci, J.: Decision
making with visualizations: a cognitive framework across disciplines, Cogn.
Res. Princ. Implic., 3, 29, https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-018-0120-9, 2018. a, b, c
Pielke Jr., R. and Carbone, R.: Weather, impacts, forecasts, and policy, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 393–403, 2002. a
Ramos, M.-H., Mathevet, T., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: Communicating uncertainty in
hydrometeorological forecasts: mission impossible?, Meteorol. Appl., 17,
223–235, 2010. a
Reghezza-Zitt, M.: Gestion de crise et incertitude(s) ou comment planifier le
hors-cadre et l’inimaginable. Application aux crises résultant de crues
majeures en Île-de-France, Ann. Georgr., 726, 5–30,
https://doi.org/10.3917/ag.726.0005, 2019. a
Roque, A., Wutich, A., Quimby, B., Zheng, M., Hossain, M., and Brewis, A.:
Participatory approaches in water research: a review, WIRES Water, 9, E1577, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1577,
2022. a
Speight, L., Cole, S., Moore, R., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golging, B.,
Cranston, M., Tavendale, A., Dhondia, J., and Ghimire, S.: Developing surface
water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an operational pilot for
the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11,
5884–5901, 2018. a
Statistics Canada: 2021 Census – boundary files,
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/geo/sip-pis/boundary-limites/index2021-eng.cfm?year=21 (last access: 10 August 2022),
2021. a
Stephens, E. M., Spiegelhalter, D., Mylne, K., and Harrison, M.: The Met Office
Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting
probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making, Geosci. Commun.,
2, 101–116, 2019. a
Westerberg, I., Di Baldassarre, G., and Krueger, T.: Perceptual models of
uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example,
Hydrol. Sci. J., 62, 1705–1713, 2017. a
Wu, W., Emerton, R., Wood, A. W., Wetterhall, F., and Robertson, D. E.: Ensemble
flood forecasting: current status and future opportunities, WIRES Water, 7, e1432,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1432, 2020. a
Zarzar, C., Hosseiny, H., Siddique, S., Gomez, M., Smith, V., Mejia, A., and
Dyer, J.: A hydraulic multimodel ensemble framework for visualizing flood
inundation uncertainty, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 54, 807–819,
https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12656, 2018. a
Short summary
Flood forecasts are only useful if they are understood correctly. They are also uncertain, and it is difficult to present all of the information about the forecast and its uncertainty on a map, as it is three dimensional (water depth and extent, in all directions). To overcome this, we interviewed 139 people to understand their preferences in terms of forecast visualization. We propose simple and effective ways of presenting flood forecast maps so that they can be understood and useful.
Flood forecasts are only useful if they are understood correctly. They are also uncertain, and...
