Articles | Volume 26, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4801-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4801-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Sep 2022
Research article |
| 29 Sep 2022
| 29 Sep 2022
Development of a national 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service for Australia
Hapu Arachchige Prasantha Hapuarachchi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, VIC 3008,
Australia
Mohammed Abdul Bari
Bureau of Meteorology, 1 Ord Street, West Perth, WA 6005, Australia
Aynul Kabir
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, VIC 3008,
Australia
Mohammad Mahadi Hasan
Bureau of Meteorology, The Treasury Building, Parkes Place West,
Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia
Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, VIC 3008,
Australia
Nilantha Gamage
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, VIC 3008,
Australia
Patrick Daniel Sunter
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, VIC 3008,
Australia
Xiaoyong Sophie Zhang
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, VIC 3008,
Australia
David Ewen Robertson
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Research
Way, Clayton, VIC 3168, Australia
James Clement Bennett
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Research
Way, Clayton, VIC 3168, Australia
Paul Martinus Feikema
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, VIC 3008,
Australia
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Arash Aghakhani, David E. Robertson, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-553, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Australia's shifting climate, with recurring droughts and wet periods, makes streamflow prediction challenging. This study combines GR4J model with machine learning to improve daily streamflow forecasts in Western Victoria. By identifying key factors affecting river flow, it offers valuable insights for water management. The findings show that machine learning can reveal limitations in traditional models, leading to more accurate predictions in drought-prone regions.
Kevin K. W. Cheung, Fei Ji, Nidhi Nishant, Jin Teng, James Bennett, and De Li Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-286, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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This study evaluates two reanalysis datasets, which are critical in climate, weather research and water resources analysis, for the Australian region in simulating mean precipitation and six selected precipitation extremes. While spatial patterns of mean precipitation are well reproduced, substantial biases exist in precipitation variability, trends and extremes. Caution in applying these datasets is thus advised in terms of the latter aspects.
Gnanathikkam Emmanuel Amirthanathan, Mohammed Abdul Bari, Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel, Narendra Kumar Tuteja, and Paul Martinus Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 229–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-229-2023, 2023
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We used statistical tests to detect annual and seasonal streamflow trends and step changes across Australia. The Murray–Darling Basin and other rivers in the southern and north-eastern areas showed decreasing trends. Only rivers in the Timor Sea region in northern Australia showed significant increasing trends. Our results assist with infrastructure planning and management of water resources. This study was undertaken by the Bureau of Meteorology with its responsibility under the Water Act 2007.
David McInerney, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Richard Laugesen, Fitsum Woldemeskel, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5669–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, 2022
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Streamflow forecasts a day to a month ahead are highly valuable for water resources management. Current practice often develops forecasts for specific lead times and aggregation timescales. In contrast, a single, seamless forecast can serve multiple lead times/timescales. This study shows seamless forecasts can match the performance of forecasts developed specifically at the monthly scale, while maintaining quality at other lead times. Hence, users need not sacrifice capability for performance.
Alexander Kaune, Faysal Chowdhury, Micha Werner, and James Bennett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3851-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3851-2020, 2020
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This paper was developed from PhD research focused on assessing the value of using hydrological datasets in water resource management. Previous studies have assessed how well data can help in predicting river flows, but there is a lack of knowledge of how well data can help in water allocation decisions. In our research, it was found that using seasonal streamflow forecasts improves the available water estimates, resulting in better water allocation decisions in a highly regulated basin.
Ashley J. Wright, David E. Robertson, Jeffrey P. Walker, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-450, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper details the development of a methodology to optimize the weighting of rainfall gauges for hydrologic simulation. In particular, catchments with a low gauge density and/or proportion of observations available are not well suited to this methodology. Application of this methodology with models that are consistent with a conceptual understanding of the rainfall-runoff process yield improvements of 7.1 % in evaluation periods.
Fitsum Woldemeskel, David McInerney, Julien Lerat, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Daehyok Shin, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6257–6278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018, 2018
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This paper evaluates several schemes for post-processing monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's streamflow forecasting system. Through evaluation across 300 catchments, the best-performing scheme has been identified, which is found to substantially improve important aspects of the forecast quality. This finding is significant because the improved forecasts help water managers and users of the service to make better-informed decisions.
Stephen P. Charles, Quan J. Wang, Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad, Danial Hashmi, Andrew Schepen, Geoff Podger, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018, 2018
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Predictions of irrigation-season water availability are important for water-limited Pakistan. We assess a Bayesian joint probability approach, using flow and climate indices as predictors, to produce streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest dams. The approach produces skilful and reliable forecasts. As it is simple and quick to apply, it can be used to provide probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts that can inform Pakistan's water management.
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Quan J. Wang, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1615–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, 2018
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Rainfall forecasts from dynamical global climate models (GCMs) require post-processing before use in hydrological models. Existing methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve calibrated forecasts of both daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. We develop a new statistical method to post-process Australian GCM rainfall forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments. Our method produces reliable forecasts and outperforms the most commonly used statistical method.
James C. Bennett, Quan J. Wang, David E. Robertson, Andrew Schepen, Ming Li, and Kelvin Michael
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6007–6030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, 2017
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We assess a new streamflow forecasting system in Australia. The system is designed to meet the need of water agencies for 12-month forecasts. The forecasts perform well in a wide range of rivers. Forecasts for shorter periods (up to 6 months) are generally informative. Forecasts sometimes did not perform well in a few very dry rivers. We test several techniques for improving streamflow forecasts in drylands, with mixed success.
Sean W. D. Turner, James C. Bennett, David E. Robertson, and Stefano Galelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4841–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, 2017
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This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Using data from a modern forecasting system, we show that skilled forecasts are more likely to provide benefits for reservoirs operated to maintain a target water level rather than reservoirs operated to satisfy a target demand. We identify the primary causes for this behaviour and provide specific recommendations for assessing the value of forecasts for reservoirs with supply objectives.
Ashley Wright, Jeffrey P. Walker, David E. Robertson, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017, 2017
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The accurate reduction of hydrologic model input data is an impediment towards understanding input uncertainty and model structural errors. This paper compares the ability of two transforms to reduce rainfall input data. The resultant transforms are compressed to varying extents and reconstructed before being evaluated with standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. It is concluded the discrete wavelet transform is most capable of preserving rainfall time series.
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Q. J. Wang, Senlin Zhou, and Paul Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4117–4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016, 2016
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Australian seasonal streamflow forecasts are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology with up to two weeks' delay. Timelier forecast release will enhance forecast value and enable sub-seasonal forecasting. The bureau's forecasting approach is modified to allow timelier forecast release, and changes in reliability and skill are quantified. The results are combined with insights into the forecast production process to recommend a more flexible forecasting system to better meet the needs of users.
Xiaoyong Sophie Zhang, Gnanathikkam E. Amirthanathan, Mohammed A. Bari, Richard M. Laugesen, Daehyok Shin, David M. Kent, Andrew M. MacDonald, Margot E. Turner, and Narendra K. Tuteja
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3947–3965, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3947-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3947-2016, 2016
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The hydrologic reference stations website (www.bom.gov.au/water/hrs/), developed by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, is a one-stop portal to access long-term and high-quality streamflow information for 222 stations across Australia. This study investigated the streamflow variability and inferred trends in water availability for those stations. The results present a systematic analysis of recent hydrological changes in Australian rivers, which will aid water management decision making.
Ming Li, Q. J. Wang, James C. Bennett, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3561–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, 2016
C. Alvarez-Garreton, D. Ryu, A. W. Western, C.-H. Su, W. T. Crow, D. E. Robertson, and C. Leahy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1659–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, 2015
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We assimilate satellite soil moisture into a rainfall-runoff model for improving flood prediction within a data-scarce region. We argue that the spatially distributed satellite data can alleviate the model prediction limitations. We show that satellite soil moisture DA reduces the uncertainty of the streamflow ensembles. We propose new techniques for the DA scheme, including seasonal error characterisation, bias correction of the satellite retrievals, and model error representation.
M. Li, Q. J. Wang, J. C. Bennett, and D. E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1-2015, 2015
J. C. Bennett, Q. J. Wang, P. Pokhrel, and D. E. Robertson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 219–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-219-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-219-2014, 2014
D. E. Robertson, D. L. Shrestha, and Q. J. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3587–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3587-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3587-2013, 2013
D. L. Shrestha, D. E. Robertson, Q. J. Wang, T. C. Pagano, and H. A. P. Hapuarachchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1913–1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1913-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1913-2013, 2013
P. Pokhrel, D. E. Robertson, and Q. J. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 795–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-795-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-795-2013, 2013
D. E. Robertson, P. Pokhrel, and Q. J. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 579–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-579-2013, 2013
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Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1277-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1277-2025, 2025
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1061–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, 2025
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1033–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025, 2025
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Owing to differences in the existing published results, we conducted a detailed analysis of the runoff components and future trends in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and found that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow (both ~5 %) are limited and much lower than previous results. The streamflow in this area will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution of glacier melt could lead to an underestimation of this increasing trend.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 903–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, 2025
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This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation–Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controlling changes in precipitation–runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation–runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, 2025
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Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained on large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets that maximise the spatio-temporal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 753–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, 2025
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This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms claims raised by historians that the eastward diversion project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted 4 centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the capital, Edo (Tokyo), using inland navigation. We showed that great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small interventions in the regime of natural flows.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
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This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 627–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, 2025
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Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Dataset Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Process Modelling to enhance water budget closure, termed PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
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Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
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Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
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To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
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The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
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This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
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Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
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Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, 2024
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Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modeling. However, most studies focus on daily-scale predictions, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use input of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
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We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
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Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
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The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
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We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
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Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
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We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Chen Yang, Zitong Jia, Wenjie Xu, Zhongwang Wei, Xiaolang Zhang, Yiguang Zou, Jeffrey McDonnell, Laura Condon, Yongjiu Dai, and Reed Maxwell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-292, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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We developed the first high-resolution, integrated surface water-groundwater hydrologic model of the entire continental China using ParFlow. The model shows good performance of streamflow and water table depth when compared to global data products and observations. It is essential for water resources management and decision making in China within a consistent framework in the changing world. It also has significant implications for similar modeling in other places in the world.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
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This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
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This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Wouter J. M. Knoben, Ashwin Raman, Gaby J. Gründemann, Mukesh Kumar, Alain Pietroniro, Chaopeng Shen, Yalan Song, Cyril Thébault, Katie van Werkhoven, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-279, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Hydrologic models are needed to provide simulations of water availability, floods and droughts. The accuracy of these simulations is often quantified with so-called performance scores. A common thought is that different models are more or less applicable to different landscapes, depending on how the model works. We show that performance scores are not helpful in distinguishing between different models, and thus cannot easily be used to select an appropriate model for a specific place.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
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A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
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Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
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We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
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Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
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Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what it truly reflects in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and time scales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, 2024
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We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for the next month at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 day ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 1 month ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
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An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
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The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Jean-Luc Martel, François Brissette, Richard Arsenault, Richard Turcotte, Mariana Castañeda-Gonzalez, William Armstrong, Edouard Mailhot, Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont, Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, and Louis-Philippe Caron
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2133, 2024
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This study compares Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks with traditional hydrological models to predict future streamflow under climate change. Using data from 148 catchments, it finds that LSTM models, which learn from extensive data sequences, perform differently and often better than traditional hydrolgical models. The continental LSTM model, which includes data from diverse climate zones, is particularly effective for understanding climate impacts on water resources.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
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The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
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By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
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Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
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Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
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Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1438, 2024
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Common intuition holds that higher input data resolution leads to better results. To assess the benefits of high-resolution data, we conducted simulation experiments using data with various temporal resolutions across multiple catchments, and found that higher resolution data does not always improve model performance, challenging the necessity of pursuing such data. In catchments with small areas or significant flow variability, high-resolution data is more valuable.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
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Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
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Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
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Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
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A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
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Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
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Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
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Short summary
Methodology for developing an operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service for Australia is presented. The methodology is tested for 100 catchments to learn the characteristics of different NWP rainfall forecasts, the effect of post-processing, and the optimal ensemble size and bootstrapping parameters. Forecasts are generated using NWP rainfall products post-processed by the CHyPP model, the GR4H hydrologic model, and the ERRIS streamflow post-processor inbuilt in the SWIFT package
Methodology for developing an operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service for...
