Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3097-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3097-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Jun 2020
Research article |
| 16 Jun 2020
| 16 Jun 2020
Interpretation of multi-scale permeability data through an information theory perspective
Aronne Dell'Oca
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133, Milan, Italy
Alberto Guadagnini
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133, Milan, Italy
Monica Riva
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133, Milan, Italy
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David Luttenauer, Aronne Dell'Oca, Alberto Guadagnini, Sylvain Weill, and Philippe Ackerer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-73, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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Land Surface Model outputs (evaporation, transpiration, groundwater recharge) are influenced by uncertain parameters. Global sensitivity metrics provide a ranking of the importance of uncertain factors. Evaporation is directly influenced by the net radiation and by the parameters associated with the top litter layer. Transpiration appears as mainly influenced by the vegetation characteristics and by albedo. Groundwater recharge is influenced mainly by soil-related parameters.
Aronne Dell'Oca, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6219–6234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017, 2017
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We propose new metrics to assist global sensitivity analysis of Earth systems. Our approach allows assessing the impact of model parameters on the first four statistical moments of a target model output, allowing us to ascertain which parameters can affect some moments of the model output pdf while being uninfluential to others. Our approach is fully compatible with analysis in the context of model complexity reduction, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.
Andrea Manzoni, Giovanni Michele Porta, Laura Guadagnini, Alberto Guadagnini, and Monica Riva
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We introduce a comprehensive methodology that combines multi-objective optimization, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and 3D groundwater modeling to analyze subsurface flow dynamics across large-scale domains. In this way, we effectively consider the inherent uncertainty associated with subsurface system characterizations and their interactions with surface waterbodies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach by applying it to the largest groundwater system in Italy.
Stefano Conversi, Daniela Carrion, Francesco Gioia, Alessandra Norcini, and Monica Riva
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W12-2024, 19–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-19-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-19-2024, 2024
David Luttenauer, Aronne Dell'Oca, Alberto Guadagnini, Sylvain Weill, and Philippe Ackerer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-73, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
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Land Surface Model outputs (evaporation, transpiration, groundwater recharge) are influenced by uncertain parameters. Global sensitivity metrics provide a ranking of the importance of uncertain factors. Evaporation is directly influenced by the net radiation and by the parameters associated with the top litter layer. Transpiration appears as mainly influenced by the vegetation characteristics and by albedo. Groundwater recharge is influenced mainly by soil-related parameters.
S. Conversi, D. Carrion, A. Norcini, and M. Riva
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-1-W2-2023, 1363–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-1363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-1363-2023, 2023
Yaniv Edery, Martin Stolar, Giovanni Porta, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5905–5915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5905-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5905-2021, 2021
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The interplay between dissolution, precipitation and transport is widely encountered in porous media, from CO2 storage to cave formation in carbonate rocks. We show that dissolution occurs along preferential flow paths with high hydraulic conductivity, while precipitation occurs at locations close to yet separated from these flow paths, thus further funneling the flow and changing the probability density function of the transport, as measured on the altered conductivity field at various times.
Giulia Ceriotti, Claudio Geloni, Matilde Dalla Rosa, Alberto Guadagnini, and Giovanni Porta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3539–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3539-2021, 2021
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Understanding the natural generation of CO2 in sedimentary basins is key to optimizing exploitation of natural resources and exploring feasibility of carbon capture and storage. We present a novel modeling approach to estimate the probability of CO2 generation caused by geochemical reactions at high temperatures and pressure in realistic sedimentary basins. Our model allows estimation of the most probable CO2 source depth and generation rate as a function of the composition of the source rock.
Chuan-An Xia, Xiaodong Luo, Bill X. Hu, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1689–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1689-2021, 2021
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Our study shows that (i) monitoring wells installed with packers provide the (overall) best conductivity estimates; (ii) conductivity estimates anchored on information from partially and fully screened wells are of similar quality; (iii) inflation of the measurement-error covariance matrix can improve conductivity estimates when a simplified flow model is adopted; and (iv) when compared to the MC-based EnKF, the MEs-based EnKF can efficiently and accurately estimate conductivity and head fields.
Martina Siena and Monica Riva
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2971–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2971-2018, 2018
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The development of sustainable strategies for groundwater resources exploitation in coastal regions is subordinated to the characterization of seawater intrusion (SWI) phenomena. We develop a numerical model tailored to a real coastal aquifer to investigate quantitatively the joint effects of hydraulic properties heterogeneity and pumping configuration on saltwater inland penetration and saltwater–freshwater mixing. Our results allowed identifying efficient scenarios for the reduction of SWI.
Aronne Dell'Oca, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6219–6234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017, 2017
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A. Guadagnini, S. P. Neuman, T. Nan, M. Riva, and C. L. Winter
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Previously we have shown that many earth-system and other variables can be viewed as samples from scale mixtures of truncated fractional Brownian motion or fractional Gaussian noise. Here we study statistical scaling of extreme absolute increments associated with such samples. As a real example we analyze neutron porosities from deep boreholes in diverse depositional units. Phenomena we uncover are relevant to the analysis of fluid flow and solute transport in complex hydrogeologic environments.
M. Riva, S. P. Neuman, and A. Guadagnini
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 549–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-549-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-549-2013, 2013
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Subject: Groundwater hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
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Multi-model approach to quantify groundwater-level prediction uncertainty using an ensemble of global climate models and multiple abstraction scenarios
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Numerical modeling and sensitivity analysis of seawater intrusion in a dual-permeability coastal karst aquifer with conduit networks
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Falk Heße, Sebastian Müller, and Sabine Attinger
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In this study, we have presented two different advances for the field of subsurface geostatistics. First, we present data of variogram functions from a variety of different locations around the world. Second, we present a series of geostatistical analyses aimed at examining some of the statistical properties of such variogram functions and their relationship to a number of widely used variogram model functions.
Haifan Liu, Heng Dai, Jie Niu, Bill X. Hu, Dongwei Gui, Han Qiu, Ming Ye, Xingyuan Chen, Chuanhao Wu, Jin Zhang, and William Riley
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It is still challenging to apply the quantitative and comprehensive global sensitivity analysis method to complex large-scale process-based hydrological models because of variant uncertainty sources and high computational cost. This work developed a new tool and demonstrate its implementation to a pilot example for comprehensive global sensitivity analysis of large-scale hydrological modelling. This method is mathematically rigorous and can be applied to other large-scale hydrological models.
Robert Reinecke, Laura Foglia, Steffen Mehl, Jonathan D. Herman, Alexander Wachholz, Tim Trautmann, and Petra Döll
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Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa, M. Moudud Hasan, Ajoy Kumar Saha, Rahena Parvin Rannu, Els Van Uytven, Patrick Willems, and Marijke Huysmans
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This study evaluates the effect of conceptual hydro(geo)logical model (CHM) structure, climate change and groundwater abstraction on future groundwater-level prediction uncertainty. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, groundwater level is predicted to decline quickly. Groundwater abstraction in NW Bangladesh should decrease by 60 % to ensure sustainable use. Abstraction scenarios are the dominant uncertainty source, followed by CHM uncertainty and climate model uncertainty.
Miao Jing, Falk Heße, Rohini Kumar, Olaf Kolditz, Thomas Kalbacher, and Sabine Attinger
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Zexuan Xu, Bill X. Hu, and Ming Ye
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 221–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-221-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-221-2018, 2018
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This study helps hydrologists better understand the parameters in modeling seawater intrusion in a coastal karst aquifer. Local and global sensitivity studies are conducted to evaluate a density-dependent numerical model of seawater intrusion. The sensitivity analysis indicates that karst features are critical for seawater intrusion modeling, and the evaluation of hydraulic conductivity is biased in continuum SEAWAT model. Dispervisity is no longer important in the advection-dominated aquifer.
Mohamad E. Gharamti, Johan Valstar, Gijs Janssen, Annemieke Marsman, and Ibrahim Hoteit
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The paper addresses the issue of sampling errors when using the ensemble Kalman filter, in particular its hybrid and second-order formulations. The presented work is aimed at estimating concentration and biodegradation rates of subsurface contaminants at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Overall, we found that accounting for both forecast and observation sampling errors in the joint data assimilation system helps recover more accurate state and parameter estimates.
Nikolaj Kruse Christensen, Steen Christensen, and Ty Paul A. Ferre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1925–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1925-2016, 2016
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Our primary objective in this study is to provide a virtual environment that allows users to determine the value of geophysical data and, furthermore, to investigate how best to use those data to develop groundwater models and to reduce their prediction errors. When this has been carried through for alternative data sampling, parameterization and inversion approaches, the best alternative can be chosen by comparison of prediction results between the alternatives.
A. Hernández-Antonio, J. Mahlknecht, C. Tamez-Meléndez, J. Ramos-Leal, A. Ramírez-Orozco, R. Parra, N. Ornelas-Soto, and C. J. Eastoe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3937–3950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3937-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3937-2015, 2015
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A conceptual model of groundwater flow processes and mixing was developed using a combination of hydrogeochemistry, isotopes and multivariate analysis. The implementation to the case of Guadalajara showed that groundwater was classified into four groups: cold groundwater, hydrothermal water, polluted groundwater and mixed groundwater. A multivariate mixing model was used to calculate the proportion of different fluids in sampled well water. The result helps authorities in decision making.
X. Y. Liang and Y.-K. Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2971–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2971-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2971-2015, 2015
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The error or uncertainty in head, obtained with an analytical or numerical solution, at an early time is mainly caused by the random initial condition. The error reduces with time, later reaching a constant error. The constant error at a later time is mainly due to the effects of the uncertain source/sink. The error caused by the uncertain boundary is limited to a narrow zone. Temporal scaling of head exists in most parts of a low permeable aquifer, mainly caused by recharge fluctuation.
X. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, A.-S. Høyer, R. R. Møller, and K. H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3245-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3245-2013, 2013
A. Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2763–2775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2763-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2763-2011, 2011
E. Vázquez-Suñé, J. Carrera, I. Tubau, X. Sánchez-Vila, and A. Soler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2085–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2085-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2085-2010, 2010
R. Rojas, O. Batelaan, L. Feyen, and A. Dassargues
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 171–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-171-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-171-2010, 2010
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Short summary
Permeability of natural systems exhibits heterogeneous spatial variations linked with the size of the measurement support scale. As the latter becomes coarser, the system appearance is less heterogeneous. As such, sets of permeability data associated with differing support scales provide diverse amounts of information. In this contribution, we leverage information theory to quantify the information content of gas permeability datasets collected with four diverse measurement support scales.
Permeability of natural systems exhibits heterogeneous spatial variations linked with the size...
