Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2735-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2735-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Analysis of the effects of biases in ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasts on electricity production in hydropower reservoir management
Richard Arsenault
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of construction engineering, École de technologie
supérieure, Montréal, H3C 1K3, Canada
Quebec Power Operations, Rio Tinto, Jonquière, G7S 4R5, Canada
Pascal Côté
Quebec Power Operations, Rio Tinto, Jonquière, G7S 4R5, Canada
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Frédéric Talbot, Jean-Daniel Sylvain, Guillaume Drolet, Annie Poulin, and Richard Arsenault
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3353, 2024
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This study explores six methods to improve the ability of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to predict peak streamflows, crucial for flood analysis. By enhancing data inputs and model techniques, the research shows LSTM models can match or surpass traditional hydrological models in simulating peak flows. Tested on 88 catchments in Quebec, Canada, these methods offer promising strategies for better flood prediction.
Jean-Luc Martel, François Brissette, Richard Arsenault, Richard Turcotte, Mariana Castañeda-Gonzalez, William Armstrong, Edouard Mailhot, Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont, Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, and Louis-Philippe Caron
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This study compares Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks with traditional hydrological models to predict future streamflow under climate change. Using data from 148 catchments, it finds that LSTM models, which learn from extensive data sequences, perform differently and often better than traditional hydrolgical models. The continental LSTM model, which includes data from diverse climate zones, is particularly effective for understanding climate impacts on water resources.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Richard Arsenault, and Jean-Luc Martel
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Our study examines how combining climate models impacts future streamflow predictions, crucial for understanding climate change. Comparing six methods across 3,107 North American catchments, we found unequal weighting significantly improves rainfall and temperature projections. However, for streamflow, both equal and unequal weighting perform similarly with bias correction. Our findings underscore the need to carefully select weighting methods and correct biases for accurate climate projections.
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Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
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Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Juliane Mai, Hongren Shen, Bryan A. Tolson, Étienne Gaborit, Richard Arsenault, James R. Craig, Vincent Fortin, Lauren M. Fry, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Nicole O'Brien, Daniel G. Princz, Sinan Rasiya Koya, Tirthankar Roy, Frank Seglenieks, Narayan K. Shrestha, André G. T. Temgoua, Vincent Vionnet, and Jonathan W. Waddell
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It is not known how much uncertainty the choice of a reference data set may bring to impact studies. This study compares precipitation and temperature data sets to evaluate the uncertainty contribution to the results of climate change studies. Results show that all data sets provide good streamflow simulations over the reference period. The reference data sets also provided uncertainty that was equal to or larger than that related to general circulation models over most of the catchments.
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The ERA5 reanalysis dataset is characterized by its high spatial (0.25) and temporal (hourly) resolutions and has therefore a large potential to drive environmental models in regions where the network of stations is deficient. ERA5 performance is evaluated on 3138 North American catchments. Results indicate that for hydrological modelling, ERA5 precipitation and temperature are just as good as observation all over North America, with the exception of the eastern half of the US.
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This study compares two hydrological modeling approaches for assessing climate change impacts on water systems. We evaluate the conventional method alongside the asynchronous method, which excels in capturing extreme events but faces challenges with event timing. Our findings suggest that a semi-asynchronous approach, blending the strengths of both methods, could offer better results. This research provides key insights for supporting sustainable resource planning in a changing climate.
Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, Richard Turcotte, Mariana Castañeda-Gonzalez, François Brissette, William Armstrong, Edouard Mailhot, Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont, Simon Lachance-Cloutier, Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, and Louis-Philippe Caron
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Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Richard Arsenault, and Jean-Luc Martel
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Preprint archived
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Our study examines how combining climate models impacts future streamflow predictions, crucial for understanding climate change. Comparing six methods across 3,107 North American catchments, we found unequal weighting significantly improves rainfall and temperature projections. However, for streamflow, both equal and unequal weighting perform similarly with bias correction. Our findings underscore the need to carefully select weighting methods and correct biases for accurate climate projections.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Juliane Mai, Hongren Shen, Bryan A. Tolson, Étienne Gaborit, Richard Arsenault, James R. Craig, Vincent Fortin, Lauren M. Fry, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Nicole O'Brien, Daniel G. Princz, Sinan Rasiya Koya, Tirthankar Roy, Frank Seglenieks, Narayan K. Shrestha, André G. T. Temgoua, Vincent Vionnet, and Jonathan W. Waddell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3537–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Model intercomparison studies are carried out to test various models and compare the quality of their outputs over the same domain. In this study, 13 diverse model setups using the same input data are evaluated over the Great Lakes region. Various model outputs – such as streamflow, evaporation, soil moisture, and amount of snow on the ground – are compared using standardized methods and metrics. The basin-wise model outputs and observations are made available through an interactive website.
Mostafa Tarek, François Brissette, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3331–3350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3331-2021, 2021
Short summary
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It is not known how much uncertainty the choice of a reference data set may bring to impact studies. This study compares precipitation and temperature data sets to evaluate the uncertainty contribution to the results of climate change studies. Results show that all data sets provide good streamflow simulations over the reference period. The reference data sets also provided uncertainty that was equal to or larger than that related to general circulation models over most of the catchments.
Mostafa Tarek, François P. Brissette, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2527–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2527-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2527-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The ERA5 reanalysis dataset is characterized by its high spatial (0.25) and temporal (hourly) resolutions and has therefore a large potential to drive environmental models in regions where the network of stations is deficient. ERA5 performance is evaluated on 3138 North American catchments. Results indicate that for hydrological modelling, ERA5 precipitation and temperature are just as good as observation all over North America, with the exception of the eastern half of the US.
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
Check dam impact on sediment loads: example of the Guerbe River in the Swiss Alps – a catchment scale experiment
Controls on flood managed aquifer recharge through a heterogeneous vadose zone: hydrologic modeling at a site characterized with surface geophysics
Spatiotemporal responses of the crop water footprint and its associated benchmarks under different irrigation regimes to climate change scenarios in China
Bridging the scale gap: obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate
3D multiple-point geostatistical simulation of joint subsurface redox and geological architectures
News media coverage of conflict and cooperation dynamics of water events in the Lancang–Mekong River basin
Using paleoclimate reconstructions to analyse hydrological epochs associated with Pacific decadal variability
Bias correction of simulated historical daily streamflow at ungauged locations by using independently estimated flow duration curves
Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements – an application to the southwest monsoon in India
Hydrostratigraphic modeling using multiple-point statistics and airborne transient electromagnetic methods
A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin
A coupled stochastic rainfall–evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis
Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation
Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors
The cost of ending groundwater overdraft on the North China Plain
Definition of efficient scarcity-based water pricing policies through stochastic programming
A dual-inexact fuzzy stochastic model for water resources management and non-point source pollution mitigation under multiple uncertainties
Just two moments! A cautionary note against use of high-order moments in multifractal models in hydrology
Determining spatial variability of dry spells: a Markov-based method, applied to the Makanya catchment, Tanzania
Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns
Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales
Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate
Record extension for short-gauged water quality parameters using a newly proposed robust version of the Line of Organic Correlation technique
Calibration of the modified Bartlett-Lewis model using global optimization techniques and alternative objective functions
Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos
Ariel Henrique do Prado, David Mair, Philippos Garefalakis, Chantal Schmidt, Alexander Whittaker, Sebastien Castelltort, and Fritz Schlunegger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1173–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1173-2024, 2024
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Engineering structures known as check dams are built with the intention of managing streams. The effectiveness of such structures can be expressed by quantifying the reduction of the sediment flux after their implementation. In this contribution, we estimate and compare the volumes of sediment transported in a mountain stream for engineered and non-engineered conditions. We found that without check dams the mean sediment flux would be ca. 10 times larger in comparison with the current situation.
Zach Perzan, Gordon Osterman, and Kate Maher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 969–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-969-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-969-2023, 2023
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In this study, we simulate flood managed aquifer recharge – the process of intentionally inundating land to replenish depleted aquifers – at a site imaged with geophysical equipment. Results show that layers of clay and silt trap recharge water above the water table, where it is inaccessible to both plants and groundwater wells. Sensitivity analyses also identify the main sources of uncertainty when simulating managed aquifer recharge, helping to improve future forecasts of site performance.
Zhiwei Yue, Xiangxiang Ji, La Zhuo, Wei Wang, Zhibin Li, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4637–4656, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4637-2022, 2022
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Facing the increasing challenge of sustainable crop supply with limited water resources due to climate change, large-scale responses in the water footprint (WF) and WF benchmarks of crop production remain unclear. Here, we quantify the effects of future climate change scenarios on the WF and WF benchmarks of maize and wheat in time and space in China. Differences in crop growth between rain-fed and irrigated farms and among furrow-, sprinkler-, and micro-irrigated regimes are identified.
Qifen Yuan, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Stein Beldring, Wai Kwok Wong, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5259–5275, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021, 2021
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Localized impacts of changing precipitation patterns on surface hydrology are often assessed at a high spatial resolution. Here we introduce a stochastic method that efficiently generates gridded daily precipitation in a future climate. The method works out a stochastic model that can describe a high-resolution data product in a reference period and form a realistic precipitation generator under a projected future climate. A case study of nine catchments in Norway shows that it works well.
Rasmus Bødker Madsen, Hyojin Kim, Anders Juhl Kallesøe, Peter B. E. Sandersen, Troels Norvin Vilhelmsen, Thomas Mejer Hansen, Anders Vest Christiansen, Ingelise Møller, and Birgitte Hansen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2759–2787, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2759-2021, 2021
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The protection of subsurface aquifers from contamination is an ongoing environmental challenge. Some areas of the underground have a natural capacity for reducing contaminants. In this research these areas are mapped in 3D along with information about, e.g., sand and clay, which indicates whether contaminated water from the surface will travel through these areas. This mapping technique will be fundamental for more reliable risk assessment in water quality protection.
Jing Wei, Yongping Wei, Fuqiang Tian, Natalie Nott, Claire de Wit, Liying Guo, and You Lu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1603–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1603-2021, 2021
Lanying Zhang, George Kuczera, Anthony S. Kiem, and Garry Willgoose
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6399–6414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6399-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6399-2018, 2018
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Analyses of run lengths of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) suggest that there is no significant difference between run lengths in positive and negative phases of PDV and that it is more likely than not that the PDV run length has been non-stationary in the past millennium. This raises concerns about whether variability seen in the instrumental record (the last ~100 years), or even in the shorter 300–400 year paleoclimate reconstructions, is representative of the full range of variability.
William H. Farmer, Thomas M. Over, and Julie E. Kiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5741–5758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5741-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5741-2018, 2018
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This work observes that the result of streamflow simulation is often biased, especially with regards to extreme events, and proposes a novel technique to reduce this bias. By using parallel simulations of relative streamflow timing (sequencing) and the distribution of streamflow (magnitude), severe biases can be mitigated. Reducing this bias allows for improved utility of streamflow simulation for water resources management.
Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, and Paulina Concha Larrauri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5125–5141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5125-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5125-2018, 2018
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We present a framework for forecasting water storage requirements in the agricultural sector and an application of this framework to water risk assessment in India. Our framework involves defining a crop-specific water stress index and applying a particular statistical forecasting model to predict seasonal water stress for the crop of interest. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra.
Adrian A. S. Barfod, Ingelise Møller, Anders V. Christiansen, Anne-Sophie Høyer, Júlio Hoffimann, Julien Straubhaar, and Jef Caers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3351–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3351-2018, 2018
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Three-dimensional geological models are important to securing and managing groundwater. Such models describe the geological architecture, which is used for modeling the flow of groundwater. Common geological modeling approaches result in one model, which does not quantify the architectural uncertainty of the geology.
We present a comparison of three different state-of-the-art stochastic multiple-point statistical methods for quantifying the geological uncertainty using real-world datasets.
Paula Rodríguez-Escales, Arnau Canelles, Xavier Sanchez-Vila, Albert Folch, Daniel Kurtzman, Rudy Rossetto, Enrique Fernández-Escalante, João-Paulo Lobo-Ferreira, Manuel Sapiano, Jon San-Sebastián, and Christoph Schüth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3213–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3213-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3213-2018, 2018
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In this work, we have developed a methodology to evaluate the failure risk of managed aquifer recharge, and we have applied it to six different facilities located in the Mediterranean Basin. The methodology was based on the development of a probabilistic risk assessment based on fault trees. We evaluated both technical and non-technical issues, the latter being more responsible for failure risk.
Minh Tu Pham, Hilde Vernieuwe, Bernard De Baets, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1263–1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018, 2018
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In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Still, the developed model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.
Cristina Aguilar, Alberto Montanari, and María-José Polo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3687–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3687-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3687-2017, 2017
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Assuming that floods are driven by both short- (meteorological forcing) and long-term perturbations (higher-than-usual moisture), we propose a technique for updating a season in advance the flood frequency distribution. Its application in the Po and Danube rivers helped to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of floods and thus constitutes a promising tool for real-time management of flood risk mitigation. This study is the result of the stay of the first author at the University of Bologna.
Veit Blauhut, Kerstin Stahl, James Howard Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Lucia De Stefano, and Jürgen Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, 2016
Claus Davidsen, Suxia Liu, Xingguo Mo, Dan Rosbjerg, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 771–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-771-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-771-2016, 2016
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In northern China, rivers run dry and groundwater tables drop, causing economic losses for all water use sectors. We present a groundwater-surface water allocation decision support tool for cost-effective long-term recovery of an overpumped aquifer. The tool is demonstrated for a part of the North China Plain and can support the implementation of the recent China No. 1 Document in a rational and economically efficient way.
H. Macian-Sorribes, M. Pulido-Velazquez, and A. Tilmant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3925–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3925-2015, 2015
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One of the most promising alternatives to improve the efficiency in water usage is the implementation of scarcity-based pricing policies based on the opportunity cost of water at the basin scale. Time series of the marginal value of water at selected locations (reservoirs) are obtained using a stochastic hydro-economic model and then post-processed to define step water pricing policies.
C. Dong, Q. Tan, G.-H. Huang, and Y.-P. Cai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1793–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1793-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1793-2014, 2014
F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S. M. Papalexiou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-243-2014, 2014
B. M. C. Fischer, M. L. Mul, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2161–2170, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2161-2013, 2013
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, and J. I. López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, 2013
E. Baratti, A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4651–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, 2012
J. E. Bremer and T. Harter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2453–2467, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2453-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2453-2012, 2012
B. Khalil and J. Adamowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2253–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2253-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2253-2012, 2012
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Short summary
Hydrological forecasting allows hydropower system operators to make the most efficient use of the available water as possible. Accordingly, hydrologists have been aiming at improving the quality of these forecasts. This work looks at the impacts of improving systematic errors in a forecasting scheme on the hydropower generation using a few decision-aiding tools that are used operationally by hydropower utilities. We find that the impacts differ according to the hydropower system characteristics.
Hydrological forecasting allows hydropower system operators to make the most efficient use of...