A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation

Ammann, Lorenz; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019

Articles | Volume 23, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 4

Research article

|

30 Apr 2019

Research article |

| 30 Apr 2019

A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation

Lorenz Ammann, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Peter Reichert

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Final revised paper (published on 30 Apr 2019)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 13 Aug 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

SC1: 'Very interesting contribution', Alberto Montanari, 16 Aug 2018
- AC1: 'Thanks for the valuable comments', Lorenz Ammann, 24 Aug 2018
RC1: 'Review of HESS-submission “A framework for likelihood functions of deterministic hydrological models” by Ammann et al.', Jasper Vrugt, 28 Sep 2018
- AC2: 'Reply to referee 1', Lorenz Ammann, 05 Nov 2018
RC2: 'review', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Oct 2018
- AC3: 'Reply to referee 2', Lorenz Ammann, 05 Nov 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (09 Nov 2018) by Erwin Zehe

AR by Lorenz Ammann on behalf of the Authors (20 Dec 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Jan 2019) by Erwin Zehe

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (08 Feb 2019)

RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (04 Mar 2019)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (08 Mar 2019) by Erwin Zehe

AR by Lorenz Ammann on behalf of the Authors (25 Mar 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (26 Mar 2019) by Erwin Zehe

AR by Lorenz Ammann on behalf of the Authors (27 Mar 2019) Author's response Manuscript

Short summary

The uncertainty of hydrological models can be substantial, and its quantification and realistic description are often difficult. We propose a new flexible probabilistic framework to describe and quantify this uncertainty. It is show that the correlation of the errors can be non-stationary, and that accounting for temporal changes in correlation can lead to strongly improved probabilistic predictions. This is a promising avenue for improving uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling.