Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1833-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1833-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 03 Apr 2019
| 03 Apr 2019
Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
Nicholas E. Barrand
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
David M. Hannah
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
Stefan Krause
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
Christopher R. Jackson
British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
Jez Everest
British Geological Survey, Lyell Centre, Research Avenue South, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir
Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland
Andrew R. Black
Geography and Environmental Science, University of Dundee, Dundee, DD1 4HN, UK
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Chiara Magliozzi, Robert C. Grabowski, Aaron I. Packman, and Stefan Krause
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Clemens Schannwell, Stephen Cornford, David Pollard, and Nicholas E. Barrand
The Cryosphere, 12, 2307–2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2307-2018, 2018
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Giri Gopalan, Birgir Hrafnkelsson, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Alexander H. Jarosch, and Finnur Pálsson
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Short summary
Short summary
We apply a framework to compare and objectively accept or reject competing melt and run-off process models. We found no acceptable models. Furthermore, increasing model complexity does not guarantee better predictions. The results highlight model selection uncertainty and the need for rigorous frameworks to identify deficiencies in competing models. The application of this approach in the future will help to better quantify model prediction uncertainty and develop improved process models.
Faye L. Jackson, Robert J. Fryer, David M. Hannah, and Iain A. Malcolm
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4727–4745, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4727-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4727-2017, 2017
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River temperature (Tw) is important to fish populations, but one cannot monitor everywhere. Thus, models are used to predict Tw, sometimes in rivers with no data. To date, the accuracy of these predictions has not been determined. We found that models including landscape predictors (e.g. altitude, tree cover) could describe spatial patterns in Tw in other rivers better than those including air temperature. Such findings are critical for developing Tw models that have management application.
Feng Mao, Julian Clark, Timothy Karpouzoglou, Art Dewulf, Wouter Buytaert, and David Hannah
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3655–3670, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3655-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3655-2017, 2017
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The paper aims to propose a conceptual framework that supports nuanced understanding and analytical assessment of resilience in socio-hydrological contexts. We identify three framings of resilience for different human–water couplings, which have distinct application fields and are used for different water management challenges. To assess and improve socio-hydrological resilience in each type, we introduce a
resilience canvasas a heuristic tool to design bespoke management strategies.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Sverrir Guðmundsson, Peter L. Langen, Finnur Pálsson, Ruth Mottram, Simon Gascoin, and Helgi Björnsson
The Cryosphere, 11, 1665–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1665-2017, 2017
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The regional climate model HIRHAM5 is evaluated over Vatnajökull, Iceland, using automatic weather stations and mass balance observations from 1995 to 2014. From this we asses whether the model can be used to reconstruct the mass balance of the glacier. We find that the simulated energy balance is underestimated overall, but it has been improved by using a new albedo scheme. The specific mass balance is reconstructed back to 1980, thus expanding on the observational records of the mass balance.
Cédric L. R. Laizé, Cristian Bruna Meredith, Michael J. Dunbar, and David M. Hannah
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3231–3247, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3231-2017, 2017
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Stream temperature controls many river processes, making it vital to know how climate affects it. Climate and stream temperatures at 35 British sites and associated basin properties were used to model climate–water temperature associations and to assess how they are influenced by basins. Associations vary with season and water temperature range. Basin permeability, size, and elevation have the main influence; smaller upland or impermeable basins are the most sensitive to climate.
Joaquín M. C. Belart, Etienne Berthier, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Leif S. Anderson, Finnur Pálsson, Thorsteinn Thorsteinsson, Ian M. Howat, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Tómas Jóhannesson, and Alexander H. Jarosch
The Cryosphere, 11, 1501–1517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1501-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1501-2017, 2017
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Sub-meter satellite stereo images (Pléiades and WorldView2) are used to accurately measure snow accumulation and winter mass balance of Drangajökull ice cap. This is done by creating and comparing accurate digital elevation models. A glacier-wide geodetic mass balance of 3.33 ± 0.23 m w.e. is derived between October 2014 and May 2015. This method could be easily transposable to remote glaciated areas where seasonal mass balance measurements (especially winter accumulation) are lacking.
Nicholas E. Barrand, Robert G. Way, Trevor Bell, and Martin J. Sharp
The Cryosphere, 11, 157–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-157-2017, 2017
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This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the state of small glaciers in the Canadian province of Labrador. These glaciers, the last in continental northeast North America, exist in heavily shaded locations within the remote Torngat Mountains National Park. Fieldwork, and airborne and spaceborne remote-sensing analyses were used to measure regional glacier area changes and individual glacier thinning rates. These results were then linked to trends in prevailing climatic conditions.
Chiara Magliozzi, Robert Grabowski, Aaron I. Packman, and Stefan Krause
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-683, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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A critical review of recent literature details how drivers operating at catchment, valley and reach scales are responsible of variations in space and time in the hyporheic exchange. It is based on cross-disciplinary understanding of environmental topics from published reviews and field studies placed within a hierarchical framework. The outcomes will benefit hyporheic research and catchment managers by providing an integrated approach of the drivers of hyporheic exchange in space and time.
Sally Rangecroft, Anne F. Van Loon, Héctor Maureira, Koen Verbist, and David M. Hannah
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-57, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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This paper on anthropogenic droughts looks at the interactions of human activity and "natural" processes. Using a case study of the introduction of a reservoir in a Chilean river basin and a new methodology, we established the most effective way forward for quantifying human activities on hydrological drought: the "threshold level" method with an "undisturbed" time period as the threshold. This will increase our understanding on how human activities are impacting the hydrological system.
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
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In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
N. A. L. Archer, B. R. Rawlins, B. P. Machant, J. D. Mackay, and P. I. Meldrum
SOIL Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2016-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2016-40, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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This study investigates the importance of using techniques, such as soil water release curves, soil shrinkage measurements and field observations to create reference points to determine the best-fit calibrations for estimating volumetric water content (VWC). We also show that calibrating soil moisture sensors in disturbed clay soils over-estimates VWC and we suggest that undisturbed soil cores provide better calibrations to estimate VWC in clay soils.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
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This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
N. Le Vine, A. Butler, N. McIntyre, and C. Jackson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 143–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-143-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-143-2016, 2016
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– A strategy to diagnose hydrological limitations of a Land Surface Model
– Land Surface Model adaptation for hydrological applications
– Highlights challenges faced while moving towards high resolution modelling
I. Giuntoli, J.-P. Vidal, C. Prudhomme, and D. M. Hannah
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, 2015
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We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
H. Hannesdóttir, H. Björnsson, F. Pálsson, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, and Sv. Guðmundsson
The Cryosphere, 9, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-565-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-565-2015, 2015
G. Garner, I. A. Malcolm, J. P. Sadler, and D. M. Hannah
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5361–5376, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5361-2014, 2014
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This study demonstrates the processes by which instantaneous longitudinal water temperature gradients may be generated in a stream reach that transitions from moorland to semi-natural forest in the absence of substantial groundwater inflows. Water did not cool as it flowed downstream. Instead, temperature gradients were generated by a combination of reduced rates of heating in the forested reach and advection of cooler (overnight and early morning) water from the upstream moorland catchment.
C. Prudhomme, T. Haxton, S. Crooks, C. Jackson, A. Barkwith, J. Williamson, J. Kelvin, J. Mackay, L. Wang, A. Young, and G. Watts
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 101–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-101-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-101-2013, 2013
P. Fretwell, H. D. Pritchard, D. G. Vaughan, J. L. Bamber, N. E. Barrand, R. Bell, C. Bianchi, R. G. Bingham, D. D. Blankenship, G. Casassa, G. Catania, D. Callens, H. Conway, A. J. Cook, H. F. J. Corr, D. Damaske, V. Damm, F. Ferraccioli, R. Forsberg, S. Fujita, Y. Gim, P. Gogineni, J. A. Griggs, R. C. A. Hindmarsh, P. Holmlund, J. W. Holt, R. W. Jacobel, A. Jenkins, W. Jokat, T. Jordan, E. C. King, J. Kohler, W. Krabill, M. Riger-Kusk, K. A. Langley, G. Leitchenkov, C. Leuschen, B. P. Luyendyk, K. Matsuoka, J. Mouginot, F. O. Nitsche, Y. Nogi, O. A. Nost, S. V. Popov, E. Rignot, D. M. Rippin, A. Rivera, J. Roberts, N. Ross, M. J. Siegert, A. M. Smith, D. Steinhage, M. Studinger, B. Sun, B. K. Tinto, B. C. Welch, D. Wilson, D. A. Young, C. Xiangbin, and A. Zirizzotti
The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Snow and Ice | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Interactions between thresholds and spatial discretizations of snow: insights from estimates of wolverine denning habitat in the Colorado Rocky Mountains
Role of forcing uncertainty and background model error characterization in snow data assimilation
Justin M. Pflug, Yiwen Fang, Steven A. Margulis, and Ben Livneh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2747–2762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2747-2023, 2023
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Wolverine denning habitat inferred using a snow threshold differed for three different spatial representations of snow. These differences were based on the annual volume of snow and the elevation of the snow line. While denning habitat was most influenced by winter meteorological conditions, our results show that studies applying thresholds to environmental datasets should report uncertainties stemming from different spatial resolutions and uncertainties introduced by the thresholds themselves.
Sujay V. Kumar, Jiarui Dong, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, David Mocko, and Breogán Gómez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2637–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2637-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2637-2017, 2017
Short summary
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Data assimilation deals with the blending of model forecasts and observations based on their relative errors. This paper addresses the importance of accurately representing the errors in the model forecasts for skillful data assimilation performance.
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Short summary
We project 21st century change and uncertainty in 25 river flow regime metrics (signatures) for a deglaciating river basin. The results show that glacier-fed river flow magnitude, timing and variability are sensitive to climate change and that projection uncertainty stems from incomplete understanding of future climate and glacier-hydrology processes. These findings indicate how impact studies can be better designed to provide more robust projections of river flow regime in glaciated basins.
We project 21st century change and uncertainty in 25 river flow regime metrics (signatures) for...
