Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1993-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1993-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Mar 2018
Research article |
| 28 Mar 2018
| 28 Mar 2018
Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time–space evolutionary probability distribution – Part 1: theoretical development
Alain Dib
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, 95616, USA
M. Levent Kavvas
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, 95616, USA
Related authors
Alain Dib and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2007–2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A newly proposed method is applied to solve a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system (with an uncertain roughness coefficient) in only one simulation. After comparing its results to those of the Monte Carlo simulations, the new method was found to adequately predict the temporal and spatial evolution of the probability density of the flow variables of the system. This revealed the effectiveness, strength, and time efficiency of this new method as compared to other popular approaches.
Mathieu Mure-Ravaud, Alain Dib, M. Levent Kavvas, and Elena Yegorova
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-665, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This article introduces a new storm transposition method designed for the transposition (i.e. spatial shifting) of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). This method is based on the shifting of the initial vortex of the TC at the simulation start date. The objective of this method is to find the amount of shift which maximizes the precipitation depth over a given target area. The transposition method was applied to four hurricanes that had spawned torrential precipitation in the United States.
Joaquin Meza and M. Levent Kavvas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5ND5B, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5ND5B, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study develops a new model to study groundwater flow under uncertainty, using mathematical techniques to improve accuracy and efficiency. This approach allows for better management of water resources, particularly in drought-prone areas, by providing more reliable groundwater availability and movement estimations. This research combines traditional techniques with innovative methods to address water scarcity and support sustainable water use.
M. Levent Kavvas, Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, 2020
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After deriving a fractional continuity equation, a previously-developed equation for water flux in porous media was combined with the Dupuit approximation to obtain an equation for groundwater motion in multi-fractional space in unconfined aquifers. As demonstrated in the numerical application, the orders of the fractional space and time derivatives modulate the speed of groundwater table evolution, slowing the process with the decrease in the powers of the fractional derivatives from 1.
Alain Dib and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2007–2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A newly proposed method is applied to solve a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system (with an uncertain roughness coefficient) in only one simulation. After comparing its results to those of the Monte Carlo simulations, the new method was found to adequately predict the temporal and spatial evolution of the probability density of the flow variables of the system. This revealed the effectiveness, strength, and time efficiency of this new method as compared to other popular approaches.
Mathieu Mure-Ravaud, Alain Dib, M. Levent Kavvas, and Elena Yegorova
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-665, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This article introduces a new storm transposition method designed for the transposition (i.e. spatial shifting) of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). This method is based on the shifting of the initial vortex of the TC at the simulation start date. The objective of this method is to find the amount of shift which maximizes the precipitation depth over a given target area. The transposition method was applied to four hurricanes that had spawned torrential precipitation in the United States.
Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and M. Levent Kavvas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 931–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, 2017
Short summary
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Groundwater level fluctuations in confined aquifer wells with long observations exhibit site-specific fractal scaling behavior, and the underlying distribution exhibits either non-Gaussian characteristics, which may be fitted by the Lévy stable distribution, or Gaussian characteristics. The estimated Hurst exponent is highly dependent on the length and the specific time interval of the time series. The MF-DFA and MMA analyses showed that different levels of multifractality exist.
M. Levent Kavvas, Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 921–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-921-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-921-2017, 2017
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A dimensionally consistent governing equation of transient, saturated groundwater flow in fractional time in a multi-fractional confined aquifer is developed. First a continuity equation for groundwater flow in fractional time and in a multi-fractional, multidimensional confined aquifer is developed. An equation of water flux is also developed. The governing equation of transient groundwater flow in a multi-fractional, multidimensional confined aquifer in fractional time is then obtained.
M. Levent Kavvas, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1547–1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1547-2017, 2017
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In this study dimensionally consistent governing equations of continuity and motion for transient soil water flow and water flux in fractional time and in fractional multiple space dimensions in anisotropic media are developed. By the introduction of the Brooks–Corey constitutive relationships, an explicit form of the equations is obtained. The developed governing equations, in their fractional time but integer space forms, show behavior consistent with the previous experimental observations.
Ali Ercan and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-364, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
A finite difference numerical approach is proposed to solve the time-space fractional governing equations of one-dimensional unsteady/non-uniform open channel flow process. Numerical simulations showed that flow discharge and water depth can exhibit heavier tails in downstream locations as space and time fractional derivative powers decrease from 1. The fractional governing equations under consideration are generalizations of the well-known Saint Venant equations.
James Polsinelli and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2669–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2669-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2669-2016, 2016
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This article summarizes the theory and demonstrates the technique of a new scaling method known as the Lie scaling. In the course of applying the method to two example problems, classical notions of dynamical and kinematic scaling are incorporated. The two example problems are a 2-D unconfined groundwater problem in a heterogeneous soil and a 1-D contaminant transport problem. The article concludes with comments on the relative strengths and weaknesses of Lie scaling and classical scaling.
James Polsinelli and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-75, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
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A simple method is presented to model movement of water through soil in general conditions. Specifically, this method was designed to provide a rectangular profile approximation (e.g. the water moves through the soil like a piston) where the water content in the soil volumes is less than saturation. This method reverts to the classical saturated rectangular profile technique under heavy rainfall.
Related subject area
Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
Uncertainty estimation of regionalised depth–duration–frequency curves in Germany
FarmCan: a physical, statistical, and machine learning model to forecast crop water deficit for farms
Identifying sensitivities in flood frequency analyses using a stochastic hydrologic modeling system
Characteristics and process controls of statistical flood moments in Europe – a data-based analysis
Objective functions for information-theoretical monitoring network design: what is “optimal”?
Stochastic simulation of streamflow and spatial extremes: a continuous, wavelet-based approach
Numerical investigation on the power of parametric and nonparametric tests for trend detection in annual maximum series
Spatially dependent flood probabilities to support the design of civil infrastructure systems
Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization
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Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time–space evolutionary probability distribution – Part 2: numerical application
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Bora Shehu and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2075–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2075-2023, 2023
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Design rainfall volumes at different duration and frequencies are necessary for the planning of water-related systems and facilities. As the procedure for deriving these values is subjected to different sources of uncertainty, here we explore different methods to estimate how precise these values are for different duration, locations and frequencies in Germany. Combining local and spatial simulations, we estimate tolerance ranges from approx. 10–60% for design rainfall volumes in Germany.
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Andrew J. Newman, Amanda G. Stone, Manabendra Saharia, Kathleen D. Holman, Nans Addor, and Martyn P. Clark
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David Lun, Alberto Viglione, Miriam Bertola, Jürgen Komma, Juraj Parajka, Peter Valent, and Günter Blöschl
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We investigate statistical properties of observed flood series on a European scale. There are pronounced regional patterns, for instance: regions with strong Atlantic influence show less year-to-year variability in the magnitude of observed floods when compared with more arid regions of Europe. The hydrological controls on the patterns are quantified and discussed. On the European scale, climate seems to be the dominant driver for the observed patterns.
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Manuela I. Brunner and Eric Gilleland
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Vincenzo Totaro, Andrea Gioia, and Vito Iacobellis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 473–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-473-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-473-2020, 2020
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We highlight the need for power evaluation in the application of null hypothesis significance tests for trend detection in extreme event analysis. In a wide range of conditions, depending on the underlying distribution of data, the test power may reach unacceptably low values. We propose the use of a parametric approach, based on model selection criteria, that allows one to choose the null hypothesis, to select the level of significance, and to check the test power using Monte Carlo experiments.
Phuong Dong Le, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4851–4867, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019, 2019
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While conventional approaches focus on flood designs at individual locations, there are many situations requiring an understanding of spatial dependence of floods at multiple locations. This research describes a new framework for analyzing flood characteristics across civil infrastructure systems, including conditional and joint probabilities of floods. This work leads to a new flood estimation paradigm, which focuses on the risk of the entire system rather than each system element in isolation.
Manuela I. Brunner, András Bárdossy, and Reinhard Furrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3175–3187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019
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Cong Jiang, Lihua Xiong, Lei Yan, Jianfan Dong, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1683–1704, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, 2019
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We present the methods addressing the multivariate hydrologic design applied to the engineering practice under nonstationary conditions. A dynamic C-vine copula allowing for both time-varying marginal distributions and a time-varying dependence structure is developed to capture the nonstationarities of multivariate flood distribution. Then, the multivariate hydrologic design under nonstationary conditions is estimated through specifying the design criterion by average annual reliability.
Alain Dib and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2007–2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, 2018
Short summary
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A newly proposed method is applied to solve a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system (with an uncertain roughness coefficient) in only one simulation. After comparing its results to those of the Monte Carlo simulations, the new method was found to adequately predict the temporal and spatial evolution of the probability density of the flow variables of the system. This revealed the effectiveness, strength, and time efficiency of this new method as compared to other popular approaches.
Liang Gao, Limin Zhang, and Mengqian Lu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4573–4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4573-2017, 2017
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Rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. However, the rainfall intensity is not uniform in space, which causes more landslides in the area of intense rainfall. The primary objective of this paper is to quantify spatial correlation characteristics of three landslide-triggering large storms in Hong Kong. The spatial maximum rolling rainfall is represented by a trend surface and a random field of residuals. The scales of fluctuation of the residuals are found between 5 km and 30 km.
Elena Shevnina, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Viktor Kovalenko, and Timo Vihma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017, 2017
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This paper presents the probabilistic approach to evaluate design floods in a changing climate, adapted in this case to the northern territories. For the Russian Arctic, the regions are delineated, where it is suggested to correct engineering hydrological calculations to account for climate change. An example of the calculation of a maximal discharge of 1 % exceedance probability for the Nadym River at Nadym is provided.
Eleni Maria Michailidi and Baldassare Bacchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2497–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017, 2017
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In this research, we explored how the sampling uncertainty of flood variables (flood peak, volume, etc.) can reflect on a structural variable, which in our case was the maximum water level (MWL) of a reservoir controlled by a dam. Next, we incorporated additional information from different sources for a better estimation of the uncertainty in the probability of exceedance of the MWL. Results showed the importance of providing confidence intervals in the risk assessment of a structure.
M. J. Machado, B. A. Botero, J. López, F. Francés, A. Díez-Herrero, and G. Benito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2561–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, 2015
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A flood frequency analysis using a 400-year historical flood record was carried out using a stationary model (based on maximum likelihood estimators) and a non-stationary model that incorporates external covariates (climatic and environmental). The stationary model was successful in providing an average discharge around which value flood quantiles estimated by non-stationary models fluctuate through time.
L. Gaál, P. Molnar, and J. Szolgay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1561–1573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, 2014
P. E. O'Connell and G. O'Donnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 155–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-155-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-155-2014, 2014
A. I. Requena, L. Mediero, and L. Garrote
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3023–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013, 2013
S. Das and C. Cunnane
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 819–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-819-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-819-2011, 2011
B. A. Botero and F. Francés
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2617–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2617-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2617-2010, 2010
L. Mediero, A. Jiménez-Álvarez, and L. Garrote
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2495-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2495-2010, 2010
B. Guse, Th. Hofherr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2465–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2465-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2465-2010, 2010
D. Koutsoyiannis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 585–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, 2010
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Short summary
A new method is proposed to solve the stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system in only one single simulation, as opposed to the many simulations usually done in the popular Monte Carlo approach. The derivation of this new method gave a deterministic and linear Fokker–Planck equation whose solution provided a powerful and effective approach for quantifying the ensemble behavior and variability of such a stochastic system, regardless of the number of parameters causing its uncertainty.
A new method is proposed to solve the stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system in only one...
