Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017
Research article
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28 Sep 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 28 Sep 2017

Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

Sean W. D. Turner, James C. Bennett, David E. Robertson, and Stefano Galelli

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Cited articles

Alemu, E. T., Palmer, R. N., Polebitski, A., and Meaker, B.: Decision support system for optimizing reservoir operations using ensemble streamflow predictions, J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 137, 72–82, 2010.
Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, 2016.
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Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Li, M., Robertson, D. E., and Schepen, A.: Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts by combining dynamical climate forecasts, a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8238–8259, 2016.
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Short summary
This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Using data from a modern forecasting system, we show that skilled forecasts are more likely to provide benefits for reservoirs operated to maintain a target water level rather than reservoirs operated to satisfy a target demand. We identify the primary causes for this behaviour and provide specific recommendations for assessing the value of forecasts for reservoirs with supply objectives.