Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
Research article
 | Highlight paper
28 Sep 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 28 Sep 2017

Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

Sean W. D. Turner, James C. Bennett, David E. Robertson, and Stefano Galelli

Data sets

High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia D. A. Jones, W. Wang, and R. Fawcett

Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP), final report for Phase 3 M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, V. Haverd, E. A. King, M. Paget, and C. M. Trudinger

Short summary
This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Using data from a modern forecasting system, we show that skilled forecasts are more likely to provide benefits for reservoirs operated to maintain a target water level rather than reservoirs operated to satisfy a target demand. We identify the primary causes for this behaviour and provide specific recommendations for assessing the value of forecasts for reservoirs with supply objectives.