Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

Turner, Sean W. D.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; Galelli, Stefano

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017

Articles | Volume 21, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 9

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

28 Sep 2017

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 28 Sep 2017

Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

Sean W. D. Turner, James C. Bennett, David E. Robertson, and Stefano Galelli

Data sets

High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia D. A. Jones, W. Wang, and R. Fawcett https://doi.org/10.22499/2.5804.003

Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP), final report for Phase 3 M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, V. Haverd, E. A. King, M. Paget, and C. M. Trudinger http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_013.pdf

Short summary

This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Using data from a modern forecasting system, we show that skilled forecasts are more likely to provide benefits for reservoirs operated to maintain a target water level rather than reservoirs operated to satisfy a target demand. We identify the primary causes for this behaviour and provide specific recommendations for assessing the value of forecasts for reservoirs with supply objectives.