Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations
Sean W. D. Turner
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
SUTD-MIT International Design Centre, Singapore University of
Technology and Design, 487372, Singapore
James C. Bennett
CSIRO, Melbourne, Clayton, Victoria 3168, Australia
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania,
Battery Point, Tasmania 7004, Australia
David E. Robertson
CSIRO, Melbourne, Clayton, Victoria 3168, Australia
Stefano Galelli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Pillar of Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of
Technology and Design, 487372, Singapore
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- Incorporating long-term numerical weather forecasts to quantify dynamic vulnerability of irrigation supply system: A case study of Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan C. Hsu & Y. Lin 10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109178
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- Calibration of ECMWF SEAS5 based streamflow forecast in Seasonal hydrological forecasting for Citarum river basin, West Java, Indonesia D. Ratri et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101305
- Performance Evaluation of a National Seven-Day Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Service for Australia M. Bari et al. 10.3390/w16101438
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- Integration and Evaluation of Forecast-Informed Multiobjective Reservoir Operations G. Yang et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001229
- Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States S. Turner et al. 10.5194/hess-24-1275-2020
- Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times S. Donegan et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
- Assessing different roles of baseflow and surface runoff for long-term streamflow forecasting in southeastern China H. Chen et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1988612
- Diagnosing the Time-Varying Value of Forecasts in Multiobjective Reservoir Control K. Doering et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001386
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- Differing roles of base and fast flow in ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting: An experimental investigation Z. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125272
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- From Probabilistic Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts to Optimal Reservoir Operations: A Stochastic Programming Approach G. Gokayaz et al. 10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.11.001
- Urban drought challenge to 2030 sustainable development goals X. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.342
- Detecting the State of the Climate System via Artificial Intelligence to Improve Seasonal Forecasts and Inform Reservoir Operations M. Giuliani et al. 10.1029/2019WR025035
- Simplified Approach to Mixed-Integer Chance-Constrained Optimization with Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts for Risk-Based Dam Operation T. Ng et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5885
- Seasonal discharge forecasting for the Upper Danube I. Martin Santos et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100905
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- General Assessment of the Operational Utility of National Water Model Reservoir Inflows for the Bureau of Reclamation Facilities F. Viterbo et al. 10.3390/w12102897
- Bayesian logistic regression in providing categorical streamflow forecasts using precipitation output from climate models Y. Long et al. 10.1007/s00477-022-02295-y
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- Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts F. Woldemeskel et al. 10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018
- Progress and opportunities in advancing near‐term forecasting of freshwater quality M. Lofton et al. 10.1111/gcb.16590
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- Spatio-temporal changes and their relationship in water resources and agricultural disasters across China X. Gu et al. 10.1080/02626667.2019.1587170
- Synthetic Forecast Ensembles for Evaluating Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Z. Brodeur et al. 10.1029/2023WR034898
- Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast C. Rougé et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5934
- Multi-objective operation of cascade reservoirs based on short-term ensemble streamflow prediction S. He et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127936
- Model Selection Based on Sectoral Application Scale for Increased Value of Hydroclimate-Prediction Information S. Alexander et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001044
- Assessing the Value of a Regional Climate Model’s Rainfall Forecasts in Improving Dry-Season Streamflow Predictions H. Wang et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001571
- Effect of the quality of streamflow forecasts on the operation of cascade hydropower stations using stochastic optimization models Y. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127298
- Assessing the Hydrologic Response of a Major Drinking Water Reservoir to Extreme Flood Events and Climate Change Using SWAT and OASIS S. Paul et al. 10.3390/w16182572
- Forecasting water temperature in lakes and reservoirs using seasonal climate prediction D. Mercado-Bettín et al. 10.1016/j.watres.2021.117286
- Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia J. Bennett et al. 10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017
- Forecast-informed reservoir operations to guide hydropower and agriculture allocations in the Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia S. Alexander et al. 10.1080/07900627.2020.1745159
- A generic data-driven technique for forecasting of reservoir inflow: Application for hydropower maximization S. Ahmad & F. Hossain 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.008
- Long-, Medium-, and Short-Term Nested Optimized-Scheduling Model for Cascade Hydropower Plants: Development and Practical Application L. Shang et al. 10.3390/w14101586
- Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information E. Steirou et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1
- AI-based techniques for multi-step streamflow forecasts: application for multi-objective reservoir operation optimization and performance assessment Y. Guo et al. 10.5194/hess-25-5951-2021
- Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin N. Crippa et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100406
- A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales S. Turner & P. Jeffrey 10.1111/wej.12639
- Co-design of sectoral climate services based on seasonal prediction information in the Mediterranean E. Sánchez-García et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100337
- Valuing the Codesign of Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Models G. Yang et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6023
- Sub‐Seasonal Prediction of Drought and Streamflow Anomalies for Water Management in India A. Tiwari & V. Mishra 10.1029/2021JD035737
- Efficient River Management using Stochastic MPC and Ensemble Forecast of Uncertain In-flows ⁎ ⁎The first and the third authors acknowledge the financial support from the Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP130100605) and the Brescia Smart Living Project (MIURSCN00416) respectively. H. Nasir et al. 10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.06.196
- Sub seasonal streamflow forecast assessment at large-scale basins E. Schmitt Quedi & F. Mainardi Fan 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124635
- Exploiting multiple hydrologic forecasts to inform real-time reservoir operation for drought mitigation C. Luo et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129232
- Prediction of Reservoir Storage Anomalies in India A. Tiwari & V. Mishra 10.1029/2019JD030525
- A Multivariate Approach to Generate Synthetic Short‐To‐Medium Range Hydro‐Meteorological Forecasts Across Locations, Variables, and Lead Times Z. Brodeur & S. Steinschneider 10.1029/2020WR029453
- Medium-Term Multiobjective Operation Mode of Cascade Reservoirs Using Multisource Information W. Jiang et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002189
- Generating Synthetic Streamflow Forecasts with Specified Precision J. Lamontagne & J. Stedinger 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000915
- The Colorado River Basin Operational Prediction Testbed: A Framework for Evaluating Streamflow Forecasts and Reservoir Operations S. Baker et al. 10.1111/1752-1688.13038
- Data‐Driven Reservoir Simulation in a Large‐Scale Hydrological and Water Resource Model S. Turner et al. 10.1029/2020WR027902
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Latest update: 10 Dec 2024
Short summary
This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Using data from a modern forecasting system, we show that skilled forecasts are more likely to provide benefits for reservoirs operated to maintain a target water level rather than reservoirs operated to satisfy a target demand. We identify the primary causes for this behaviour and provide specific recommendations for assessing the value of forecasts for reservoirs with supply objectives.
This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow...
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