Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 May 2017
Research article |
| 23 May 2017
Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 0010 Helsinki, Finland
Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinsky prospect 98, 195196 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Ekaterina Kourzeneva
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 0010 Helsinki, Finland
Viktor Kovalenko
Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinsky prospect 98, 195196 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Timo Vihma
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 0010 Helsinki, Finland
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Outi Meinander, Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Pavel Amosov, Elena Aseyeva, Cliff Atkins, Alexander Baklanov, Clarissa Baldo, Sarah L. Barr, Barbara Barzycka, Liane G. Benning, Bojan Cvetkovic, Polina Enchilik, Denis Frolov, Santiago Gassó, Konrad Kandler, Nikolay Kasimov, Jan Kavan, James King, Tatyana Koroleva, Viktoria Krupskaya, Markku Kulmala, Monika Kusiak, Hanna K. Lappalainen, Michał Laska, Jerome Lasne, Marek Lewandowski, Bartłomiej Luks, James B. McQuaid, Beatrice Moroni, Benjamin Murray, Ottmar Möhler, Adam Nawrot, Slobodan Nickovic, Norman T. O’Neill, Goran Pejanovic, Olga Popovicheva, Keyvan Ranjbar, Manolis Romanias, Olga Samonova, Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Kerstin Schepanski, Ivan Semenkov, Anna Sharapova, Elena Shevnina, Zongbo Shi, Mikhail Sofiev, Frédéric Thevenet, Throstur Thorsteinsson, Mikhail Timofeev, Nsikanabasi Silas Umo, Andreas Uppstu, Darya Urupina, György Varga, Tomasz Werner, Olafur Arnalds, and Ana Vukovic Vimic
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High-latitude dust (HLD) is a short-lived climate forcer, air pollutant, and nutrient source. Our results suggest a northern HLD belt at 50–58° N in Eurasia and 50–55° N in Canada and at >60° N in Eurasia and >58° N in Canada. Our addition to the previously identified global dust belt (GDB) provides crucially needed information on the extent of active HLD sources with both direct and indirect impacts on climate and environment in remote regions, which are often poorly understood and predicted.
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Hanna K. Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Jouni Räisänen, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Igor Esau, Ekaterina Ezhova, Matti Leppäranta, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Jukka Pumpanen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Jianhui Bai, Igor Bashmachnikov, Boris Belan, Federico Bianchi, Boris Biskaborn, Michael Boy, Jaana Bäck, Bin Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Jonathan Duplissy, Egor Dyukarev, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Martin Forsius, Martin Heimann, Sirkku Juhola, Vladimir Konovalov, Igor Konovalov, Pavel Konstantinov, Kajar Köster, Elena Lapshina, Anna Lintunen, Alexander Mahura, Risto Makkonen, Svetlana Malkhazova, Ivan Mammarella, Stefano Mammola, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Outi Meinander, Eugene Mikhailov, Victoria Miles, Stanislav Myslenkov, Dmitry Orlov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Roberta Pirazzini, Olga Popovicheva, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Torsten Sachs, Vladimir Shevchenko, Andrey Skorokhod, Andreas Stohl, Elli Suhonen, Erik S. Thomson, Marina Tsidilina, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Petteri Uotila, Aki Virkkula, Nadezhda Voropay, Tobias Wolf, Sayaka Yasunaka, Jiahua Zhang, Yubao Qiu, Aijun Ding, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
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We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis.
Bin Cheng, Yubing Cheng, Timo Vihma, Anna Kontu, Fei Zheng, Juha Lemmetyinen, Yubao Qiu, and Jouni Pulliainen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3967–3978, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3967-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3967-2021, 2021
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Climate change strongly impacts the Arctic, with clear signs of higher air temperature and more precipitation. A sustainable observation programme has been carried out in Lake Orajärvi in Sodankylä, Finland. The high-quality air–snow–ice–water temperature profiles have been measured every winter since 2009. The data can be used to investigate the lake ice surface heat balance and the role of snow in lake ice mass balance and parameterization of snow-to-ice transformation in snow/ice models.
Elena Shevnina, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Yury Dvornikov, and Irina Fedorova
The Cryosphere, 15, 2667–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2667-2021, 2021
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Antarctica consists mostly of frozen water, and it makes the continent sensitive to warming due to enhancing a transition/exchange of water from solid (ice and snow) to liquid (lakes and rivers) form. Therefore, it is important to know how fast water is exchanged in the Antarctic lakes. The study gives first estimates of scales for water exchange for five lakes located in the Larsemann Hills oasis. Two methods are suggested to evaluate the timescale for the lakes depending on their type.
Elena Shevnina and Andrey Silaev
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2767–2780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2767-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2767-2019, 2019
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The paper provides a theory and assumptions behind an advance of frequency analysis (AFA) approach in long-term hydrological forecasting. In this paper, a new core of the probabilistic hydrological model MARkov Chain System (MARCSHYDRO) was introduced, together with the code and an example of a climate-scale prediction of an exceedance probability curve of river runoff with low computational costs.
Wenfeng Huang, Bin Cheng, Jinrong Zhang, Zheng Zhang, Timo Vihma, Zhijun Li, and Fujun Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2173–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2173-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2173-2019, 2019
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Up to now, little has been known on ice thermodynamics and lake–atmosphere interaction over the Tibetan Plateau during ice-covered seasons due to a lack of field data. Here, model experiments on ice thermodynamics were conducted in a shallow lake using HIGHTSI. Water–ice heat flux was a major source of uncertainty for lake ice thickness. Heat and mass budgets were estimated within the vertical air–ice–water system. Strong ice sublimation occurred and was responsible for water loss during winter.
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, and Timo Vihma
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-38, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Arctic sea ice cover has been decreasing in recent decades. The reason for the decrease remains unclear. In this study, we examine the contributions of the North Pacific SST anomalies to the decrease. There are global warming and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modesof the North Pacific SST variability in boreal summer and autumn. The global warming mode explains 44.9% and 50.1% of the Arctic sea ice loss in boreal summer and autumn, respectively. There are 22.0% and 22.2% for PDO mode.
Timo Vihma, Petteri Uotila, Stein Sandven, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Alexander Makshtas, Alexander Pelyasov, Roberta Pirazzini, Finn Danielsen, Sergey Chalov, Hanna K. Lappalainen, Vladimir Ivanov, Ivan Frolov, Anna Albin, Bin Cheng, Sergey Dobrolyubov, Viktor Arkhipkin, Stanislav Myslenkov, Tuukka Petäjä, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1941–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1941-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1941-2019, 2019
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Elena Shevnina, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola, Riina Haavisto, Timo Vihma, and Andrey Silaev
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-473, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Projections of a potential hydropower production were evaluated in terms of probability of water resources available in the future. The future projections of annual river runoff were evaluated on average, as well as on low and high exceedance probabilities under several climate change scenarios. The main idea of the modelling method used is to simulate statistical estimators of annual river runoff (mean, variation and skewness) instead of runoff time series.
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Tuukka Petäjä, Theo Kurten, Aleksander Baklanov, Anatoly Shvidenko, Jaana Bäck, Timo Vihma, Pavel Alekseychik, Meinrat O. Andreae, Stephen R. Arnold, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Boris Belan, Leonid Bobylev, Sergey Chalov, Yafang Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Gerrit de Leeuw, Aijun Ding, Sergey Dobrolyubov, Sergei Dubtsov, Egor Dyukarev, Nikolai Elansky, Kostas Eleftheriadis, Igor Esau, Nikolay Filatov, Mikhail Flint, Congbin Fu, Olga Glezer, Aleksander Gliko, Martin Heimann, Albert A. M. Holtslag, Urmas Hõrrak, Juha Janhunen, Sirkku Juhola, Leena Järvi, Heikki Järvinen, Anna Kanukhina, Pavel Konstantinov, Vladimir Kotlyakov, Antti-Jussi Kieloaho, Alexander S. Komarov, Joni Kujansuu, Ilmo Kukkonen, Ella-Maria Duplissy, Ari Laaksonen, Tuomas Laurila, Heikki Lihavainen, Alexander Lisitzin, Alexsander Mahura, Alexander Makshtas, Evgeny Mareev, Stephany Mazon, Dmitry Matishov, Vladimir Melnikov, Eugene Mikhailov, Dmitri Moisseev, Robert Nigmatulin, Steffen M. Noe, Anne Ojala, Mari Pihlatie, Olga Popovicheva, Jukka Pumpanen, Tatjana Regerand, Irina Repina, Aleksei Shcherbinin, Vladimir Shevchenko, Mikko Sipilä, Andrey Skorokhod, Dominick V. Spracklen, Hang Su, Dmitry A. Subetto, Junying Sun, Arkady Y. Terzhevik, Yuri Timofeyev, Yuliya Troitskaya, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Viacheslav I. Kharuk, Nina Zaytseva, Jiahua Zhang, Yrjö Viisanen, Timo Vesala, Pertti Hari, Hans Christen Hansson, Gennady G. Matvienko, Nikolai S. Kasimov, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Sergej Zilitinkevich, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14421–14461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14421-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14421-2016, 2016
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After kick off in 2012, the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program has expanded fast and today the multi-disciplinary research community covers ca. 80 institutes and a network of ca. 500 scientists from Europe, Russia, and China. Here we introduce scientific topics relevant in this context. This is one of the first multi-disciplinary overviews crossing scientific boundaries, from atmospheric sciences to socio-economics and social sciences.
P. Hari, T. Petäjä, J. Bäck, V.-M. Kerminen, H. K. Lappalainen, T. Vihma, T. Laurila, Y. Viisanen, T. Vesala, and M. Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1017–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1017-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1017-2016, 2016
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This manuscript introduces a conceptual design of a global, hierarchical observation network which provides tools and increased understanding to tackle the inter-connected environmental and societal challenges that we will face in the coming decades. Each ecosystem type on the globe has its own characteristic features that need to be taken into consideration. The hierarchical network is able to tackle problems related to large spatial scales, heterogeneity of ecosystems and their complexity.
R. Pirazzini, P. Räisänen, T. Vihma, M. Johansson, and E.-M. Tastula
The Cryosphere, 9, 2357–2381, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2357-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2357-2015, 2015
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We illustrate a method to measure the size distribution of a snow particle metric from macro photos of snow particles. This snow particle metric corresponds well to the optically equivalent effective radius. Our results evidence the impact of grain shape on albedo, indicate that more than just one particle metric distribution is needed to characterize the snow scattering properties at all optical wavelengths, and suggest an impact of surface roughness on the shortwave infrared albedo.
R. Döscher, T. Vihma, and E. Maksimovich
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13571–13600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13571-2014, 2014
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The article reviews progress in understanding of the Arctic sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from an atmospheric, ocean and sea ice perspective. There is strong evidence for decisive atmospheric drivers of sea ice change. Large-scale ocean influences on the Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Ocean heat fluxes are clearly impacting the ice margins. Little indication exists for a direct decisive influence of the warming ocean on the central Arctic sea ice cover.
A. Tetzlaff, C. Lüpkes, G. Birnbaum, J. Hartmann, T. Nygård, and T. Vihma
The Cryosphere, 8, 1757–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1757-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1757-2014, 2014
T. Vihma, R. Pirazzini, I. Fer, I. A. Renfrew, J. Sedlar, M. Tjernström, C. Lüpkes, T. Nygård, D. Notz, J. Weiss, D. Marsan, B. Cheng, G. Birnbaum, S. Gerland, D. Chechin, and J. C. Gascard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9403–9450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9403-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9403-2014, 2014
I. Välisuo, T. Vihma, and J. C. King
The Cryosphere, 8, 1519–1538, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1519-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1519-2014, 2014
T. Nygård, T. Valkonen, and T. Vihma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1959–1971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1959-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1959-2014, 2014
C. E. Chung, H. Cha, T. Vihma, P. Räisänen, and D. Decremer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11209–11219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11209-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11209-2013, 2013
L. Jakobson, T. Vihma, E. Jakobson, T. Palo, A. Männik, and J. Jaagus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11089–11099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11089-2013, 2013
A. Tetzlaff, L. Kaleschke, C. Lüpkes, F. Ament, and T. Vihma
The Cryosphere, 7, 153–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-153-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
Uncertainty estimation of regionalised depth–duration–frequency curves in Germany
FarmCan: a physical, statistical, and machine learning model to forecast crop water deficit for farms
Identifying sensitivities in flood frequency analyses using a stochastic hydrologic modeling system
Characteristics and process controls of statistical flood moments in Europe – a data-based analysis
Objective functions for information-theoretical monitoring network design: what is “optimal”?
Stochastic simulation of streamflow and spatial extremes: a continuous, wavelet-based approach
Numerical investigation on the power of parametric and nonparametric tests for trend detection in annual maximum series
Spatially dependent flood probabilities to support the design of civil infrastructure systems
Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization
Multivariate hydrologic design methods under nonstationary conditions and application to engineering practice
Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time–space evolutionary probability distribution – Part 1: theoretical development
Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time–space evolutionary probability distribution – Part 2: numerical application
Characterizing the spatial variations and correlations of large rainstorms for landslide study
Dealing with uncertainty in the probability of overtopping of a flood mitigation dam
Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling
Selection of intense rainfall events based on intensity thresholds and lightning data in Switzerland
Towards modelling flood protection investment as a coupled human and natural system
A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation
Examination of homogeneity of selected Irish pooling groups
Estimation of high return period flood quantiles using additional non-systematic information with upper bounded statistical models
Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume
Introducing empirical and probabilistic regional envelope curves into a mixed bounded distribution function
HESS Opinions "A random walk on water"
Bora Shehu and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2075–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2075-2023, 2023
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Design rainfall volumes at different duration and frequencies are necessary for the planning of water-related systems and facilities. As the procedure for deriving these values is subjected to different sources of uncertainty, here we explore different methods to estimate how precise these values are for different duration, locations and frequencies in Germany. Combining local and spatial simulations, we estimate tolerance ranges from approx. 10–60% for design rainfall volumes in Germany.
Sara Sadri, James S. Famiglietti, Ming Pan, Hylke E. Beck, Aaron Berg, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5373–5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5373-2022, 2022
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A farm-scale hydroclimatic machine learning framework to advise farmers was developed. FarmCan uses remote sensing data and farmers' input to forecast crop water deficits. The 8 d composite variables are better than daily ones for forecasting water deficit. Evapotranspiration (ET) and potential ET are more effective than soil moisture at predicting crop water deficit. FarmCan uses a crop-specific schedule to use surface or root zone soil moisture.
Andrew J. Newman, Amanda G. Stone, Manabendra Saharia, Kathleen D. Holman, Nans Addor, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5603–5621, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5603-2021, 2021
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This study assesses methods that estimate flood return periods to identify when we would obtain a large flood return estimate change if the method or input data were changed (sensitivities). We include an examination of multiple flood-generating models, which is a novel addition to the flood estimation literature. We highlight the need to select appropriate flood models for the study watershed. These results will help operational water agencies develop more robust risk assessments.
David Lun, Alberto Viglione, Miriam Bertola, Jürgen Komma, Juraj Parajka, Peter Valent, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5535–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5535-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5535-2021, 2021
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We investigate statistical properties of observed flood series on a European scale. There are pronounced regional patterns, for instance: regions with strong Atlantic influence show less year-to-year variability in the magnitude of observed floods when compared with more arid regions of Europe. The hydrological controls on the patterns are quantified and discussed. On the European scale, climate seems to be the dominant driver for the observed patterns.
Hossein Foroozand and Steven V. Weijs
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 831–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-831-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-831-2021, 2021
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In monitoring network design, we have to decide what to measure, where to measure, and when to measure. In this paper, we focus on the question of where to measure. Past literature has used the concept of information to choose a selection of locations that provide maximally informative data. In this paper, we look in detail at the proper mathematical formulation of the information concept as an objective. We argue that previous proposals for this formulation have been needlessly complicated.
Manuela I. Brunner and Eric Gilleland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3967–3982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, 2020
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Stochastically generated streamflow time series are used for various water management and hazard estimation applications. They provide realizations of plausible but yet unobserved streamflow time series with the same characteristics as the observed data. We propose a stochastic simulation approach in the frequency domain instead of the time domain. Our evaluation results suggest that the flexible, continuous simulation approach is valuable for a diverse range of water management applications.
Vincenzo Totaro, Andrea Gioia, and Vito Iacobellis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 473–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-473-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-473-2020, 2020
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We highlight the need for power evaluation in the application of null hypothesis significance tests for trend detection in extreme event analysis. In a wide range of conditions, depending on the underlying distribution of data, the test power may reach unacceptably low values. We propose the use of a parametric approach, based on model selection criteria, that allows one to choose the null hypothesis, to select the level of significance, and to check the test power using Monte Carlo experiments.
Phuong Dong Le, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4851–4867, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019, 2019
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While conventional approaches focus on flood designs at individual locations, there are many situations requiring an understanding of spatial dependence of floods at multiple locations. This research describes a new framework for analyzing flood characteristics across civil infrastructure systems, including conditional and joint probabilities of floods. This work leads to a new flood estimation paradigm, which focuses on the risk of the entire system rather than each system element in isolation.
Manuela I. Brunner, András Bárdossy, and Reinhard Furrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3175–3187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019
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This study proposes a procedure for the generation of daily discharge data which considers temporal dependence both within short timescales and across different years. The simulation procedure can be applied to individual and multiple sites. It can be used for various applications such as the design of hydropower reservoirs, the assessment of flood risk or the assessment of drought persistence, and the estimation of the risk of multi-year droughts.
Cong Jiang, Lihua Xiong, Lei Yan, Jianfan Dong, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1683–1704, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, 2019
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We present the methods addressing the multivariate hydrologic design applied to the engineering practice under nonstationary conditions. A dynamic C-vine copula allowing for both time-varying marginal distributions and a time-varying dependence structure is developed to capture the nonstationarities of multivariate flood distribution. Then, the multivariate hydrologic design under nonstationary conditions is estimated through specifying the design criterion by average annual reliability.
Alain Dib and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1993-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1993-2018, 2018
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A new method is proposed to solve the stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system in only one single simulation, as opposed to the many simulations usually done in the popular Monte Carlo approach. The derivation of this new method gave a deterministic and linear Fokker–Planck equation whose solution provided a powerful and effective approach for quantifying the ensemble behavior and variability of such a stochastic system, regardless of the number of parameters causing its uncertainty.
Alain Dib and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2007–2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, 2018
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A newly proposed method is applied to solve a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system (with an uncertain roughness coefficient) in only one simulation. After comparing its results to those of the Monte Carlo simulations, the new method was found to adequately predict the temporal and spatial evolution of the probability density of the flow variables of the system. This revealed the effectiveness, strength, and time efficiency of this new method as compared to other popular approaches.
Liang Gao, Limin Zhang, and Mengqian Lu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4573–4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4573-2017, 2017
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Rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. However, the rainfall intensity is not uniform in space, which causes more landslides in the area of intense rainfall. The primary objective of this paper is to quantify spatial correlation characteristics of three landslide-triggering large storms in Hong Kong. The spatial maximum rolling rainfall is represented by a trend surface and a random field of residuals. The scales of fluctuation of the residuals are found between 5 km and 30 km.
Eleni Maria Michailidi and Baldassare Bacchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2497–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017, 2017
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In this research, we explored how the sampling uncertainty of flood variables (flood peak, volume, etc.) can reflect on a structural variable, which in our case was the maximum water level (MWL) of a reservoir controlled by a dam. Next, we incorporated additional information from different sources for a better estimation of the uncertainty in the probability of exceedance of the MWL. Results showed the importance of providing confidence intervals in the risk assessment of a structure.
M. J. Machado, B. A. Botero, J. López, F. Francés, A. Díez-Herrero, and G. Benito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2561–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, 2015
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A flood frequency analysis using a 400-year historical flood record was carried out using a stationary model (based on maximum likelihood estimators) and a non-stationary model that incorporates external covariates (climatic and environmental). The stationary model was successful in providing an average discharge around which value flood quantiles estimated by non-stationary models fluctuate through time.
L. Gaál, P. Molnar, and J. Szolgay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1561–1573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, 2014
P. E. O'Connell and G. O'Donnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 155–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-155-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-155-2014, 2014
A. I. Requena, L. Mediero, and L. Garrote
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3023–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013, 2013
S. Das and C. Cunnane
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 819–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-819-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-819-2011, 2011
B. A. Botero and F. Francés
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2617–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2617-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2617-2010, 2010
L. Mediero, A. Jiménez-Álvarez, and L. Garrote
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2495-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2495-2010, 2010
B. Guse, Th. Hofherr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2465–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2465-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2465-2010, 2010
D. Koutsoyiannis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 585–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, 2010
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Short summary
This paper presents the probabilistic approach to evaluate design floods in a changing climate, adapted in this case to the northern territories. For the Russian Arctic, the regions are delineated, where it is suggested to correct engineering hydrological calculations to account for climate change. An example of the calculation of a maximal discharge of 1 % exceedance probability for the Nadym River at Nadym is provided.
This paper presents the probabilistic approach to evaluate design floods in a changing climate,...
