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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-473
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-473
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  19 Sep 2018

19 Sep 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections

Elena Shevnina1, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola1, Riina Haavisto1, Timo Vihma1, and Andrey Silaev2 Elena Shevnina et al.
  • 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, FI-00560, Helsinki, Finland
  • 2National Research University Higher School of Economics, 25/12, Bolshaya Pecherskaya Street, 603155, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia

Abstract. Potential hydropower production for 2020–2050 is calculated for 173 catchments located over the territories of Finland, Sweden, Norway, the Russian Federation, Canada and the United States. The results are based on hydrological river runoff projections assessed together with their exceedance probabilities. The annual runoff rate of particular exceedance probability was modelled with the Pearson type 3 distribution from three parameters (mean values, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness) simulated by the probabilistic hydrological MARcov Chain System (MARCS) model. The probabilistic projections of annual runoff were simulated from outputs of four global climate models under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future potential hydropower production was evaluated based on annual runoff of low and high exceedance probabilities, and then aggregated at a country level. Under forcing from climate models that project a large increase in precipitation (CaEMS2 and MPI-EMS-LM), the expected potential hydropower production in the six countries increased by 14.0 to 18.0 % according to the projected values of annual runoff rate on exceedance probabilities of 10 and 90 %. This increase in water resources allows for 10–15 % more hydropower energy generation by rivers located in Russia, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. For the USA and Canada, the potential hydropower production is projected to increases by 4.0–9.0 %. Under forcing from climate models that project a smaller increase in precipitation (HadGEM2-ES and INMCM4), the increase of potential hydropower production by 2050 was predicted to be 2.1–8.4 % over the six countries considered.

Elena Shevnina et al.

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Interactive discussion

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Status: closed
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Elena Shevnina et al.

Elena Shevnina et al.

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Short summary
Projections of a potential hydropower production were evaluated in terms of probability of water resources available in the future. The future projections of annual river runoff were evaluated on average, as well as on low and high exceedance probabilities under several climate change scenarios. The main idea of the modelling method used is to simulate statistical estimators of annual river runoff (mean, variation and skewness) instead of runoff time series.
Projections of a potential hydropower production were evaluated in terms of probability of...
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