Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017
Technical note
 | 
12 May 2017
Technical note |  | 12 May 2017

Dealing with uncertainty in the probability of overtopping of a flood mitigation dam

Eleni Maria Michailidi and Baldassare Bacchi

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Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
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Cited articles

Ariff, N. M., Jemain, A. A., Ibrahim, K., and Wan Zin, W. Z.: IDF relationships using bivariate copula for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia, J. Hydrol., 470–471, 158–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.08.045, 2012.
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Asquith, W.: lmomco – L-moments, censored L-moments, trimmed L-moments, L-comoments, and many distributions, r package version 2.1.4, http://www.cran.r-project.org/package=lmomco (last access: 10 May 2017), 2015.
Autorità di bacino del fiume Po: Caratteristiche del bacino del fiume Po e primo esame dell'impatto ambientale delle attività umane sulle risorse idriche, Report, Parma, Italy, 2006.
Balistrocchi, M. and Bacchi, B.: Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables through copula functions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1959–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1959-2011, 2011.
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Short summary
In this research, we explored how the sampling uncertainty of flood variables (flood peak, volume, etc.) can reflect on a structural variable, which in our case was the maximum water level (MWL) of a reservoir controlled by a dam. Next, we incorporated additional information from different sources for a better estimation of the uncertainty in the probability of exceedance of the MWL. Results showed the importance of providing confidence intervals in the risk assessment of a structure.