Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
Technical note
12 May 2017
Technical note |  | 12 May 2017

Dealing with uncertainty in the probability of overtopping of a flood mitigation dam

Eleni Maria Michailidi and Baldassare Bacchi

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Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
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Cited articles

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Aronica, G. T., Candela, A., Fabio, P., and Santoro, M.: Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables, Phys. Chem. Earth A/B/C, 42–44, 119–129,, 2012.
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Balistrocchi, M. and Bacchi, B.: Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables through copula functions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1959–1977,, 2011.
Short summary
In this research, we explored how the sampling uncertainty of flood variables (flood peak, volume, etc.) can reflect on a structural variable, which in our case was the maximum water level (MWL) of a reservoir controlled by a dam. Next, we incorporated additional information from different sources for a better estimation of the uncertainty in the probability of exceedance of the MWL. Results showed the importance of providing confidence intervals in the risk assessment of a structure.