Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Technical note
| 
12 May 2017
Technical note |
| 12 May 2017
Dealing with uncertainty in the probability of overtopping of a flood mitigation dam
Eleni Maria Michailidi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
DICATAM, Università degli Studi di Brescia, Via Branze 42, 25123 Brescia, Italy
Baldassare Bacchi
DICATAM, Università degli Studi di Brescia, Via Branze 42, 25123 Brescia, Italy
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Cited
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The impact of climate change on dam overtopping floods in Australia M. Ho et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5851-2025
- Climate change and hydrological dam safety: a stochastic methodology based on climate projections M. Lompi et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2192873
- Tracing design flood hydrograph uncertainty in reservoir flood control system A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2021.09.012
- Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.076
- Understanding the tradeoff between the flood risk and the hydropower benefit from the integrated flood control operation of a reservoir group and a flood detention basin Z. Mu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135162
- Non-Stationary Flood Characteristics and Joint Risk Analysis in Inland China with Uncertainty Considerations Y. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17030281
- Bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation under changing environment: case study in catchments of the Loess Plateau, China A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1478-9
- Hybrid method to update the design flood shape for spillway operation in a dam: case study of the Huites Dam, Mexico M. Arganis-Juárez et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1612067
- Perspectives on risk analysis and control for real-time operation of flood control systems J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2024.06.002
- Empirical Tool for the Assessment of Annual Overtopping Probabilities of Dams J. Fluixá-Sanmartín et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001017
- Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures L. Liu & Z. Wu https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/3528350
- Joint Probability Study of Destructive Factors Related to the “Triad” Phenomenon during Typhoon Events in the Coastal Regions: Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example X. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002007
- Development of a Bayesian-copula-based frequency analysis method for hydrological risk assessment – The Naryn River in Central Asia Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124349
- A bivariate approach to estimating the probability of very extreme precipitation events M. Ben Alaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100290
- Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways V. Rajabzadeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.109030
- Analysis of flood control risk in floodwater utilization considering the uncertainty of flood volume and peak H. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1196903
- Maximum Entropy-Copula Method for Hydrological Risk Analysis under Uncertainty: A Case Study on the Loess Plateau, China A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/e19110609
- River Levee Overtopping: A Bivariate Methodology for Hydrological Characterization of Overtopping Failure M. Isola et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001929
- Uncertainty quantification and propagation in bivariate design flood estimation using a Bayesian information-theoretic approach A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124677
- Influencia del nivel inicial en la definición de resguardos estacionales en presas I. Gabriel-Martin et al. https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2018.9526
- Risk Assessment of Dams and Reservoirs to Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region: The Case of Almopeos Dam in Northern Greece A. Stamou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18091031
- Comparative analysis of routed flood frequency for reservoirs in parallel incorporating bivariate flood frequency and reservoir operation T. Zhou & J. Jin https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12705
- Flood Control Versus Water Conservation in Reservoirs: A New Policy to Allocate Available Storage I. Gabriel-Martin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12040994
- Fuzzy risk analysis of dam overtopping from snowmelt floods in the nonstationarity case of the Manas River catchment, China K. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04143-0
- Bayesian network safety risk analysis for the dam–foundation system using Monte Carlo simulation X. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2022.109229
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The impact of climate change on dam overtopping floods in Australia M. Ho et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5851-2025
- Climate change and hydrological dam safety: a stochastic methodology based on climate projections M. Lompi et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2192873
- Tracing design flood hydrograph uncertainty in reservoir flood control system A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2021.09.012
- Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.076
- Understanding the tradeoff between the flood risk and the hydropower benefit from the integrated flood control operation of a reservoir group and a flood detention basin Z. Mu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135162
- Non-Stationary Flood Characteristics and Joint Risk Analysis in Inland China with Uncertainty Considerations Y. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17030281
- Bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation under changing environment: case study in catchments of the Loess Plateau, China A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1478-9
- Hybrid method to update the design flood shape for spillway operation in a dam: case study of the Huites Dam, Mexico M. Arganis-Juárez et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1612067
- Perspectives on risk analysis and control for real-time operation of flood control systems J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2024.06.002
- Empirical Tool for the Assessment of Annual Overtopping Probabilities of Dams J. Fluixá-Sanmartín et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001017
- Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures L. Liu & Z. Wu https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/3528350
- Joint Probability Study of Destructive Factors Related to the “Triad” Phenomenon during Typhoon Events in the Coastal Regions: Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example X. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002007
- Development of a Bayesian-copula-based frequency analysis method for hydrological risk assessment – The Naryn River in Central Asia Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124349
- A bivariate approach to estimating the probability of very extreme precipitation events M. Ben Alaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100290
- Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways V. Rajabzadeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.109030
- Analysis of flood control risk in floodwater utilization considering the uncertainty of flood volume and peak H. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1196903
- Maximum Entropy-Copula Method for Hydrological Risk Analysis under Uncertainty: A Case Study on the Loess Plateau, China A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/e19110609
- River Levee Overtopping: A Bivariate Methodology for Hydrological Characterization of Overtopping Failure M. Isola et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001929
- Uncertainty quantification and propagation in bivariate design flood estimation using a Bayesian information-theoretic approach A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124677
- Influencia del nivel inicial en la definición de resguardos estacionales en presas I. Gabriel-Martin et al. https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2018.9526
- Risk Assessment of Dams and Reservoirs to Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region: The Case of Almopeos Dam in Northern Greece A. Stamou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18091031
- Comparative analysis of routed flood frequency for reservoirs in parallel incorporating bivariate flood frequency and reservoir operation T. Zhou & J. Jin https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12705
- Flood Control Versus Water Conservation in Reservoirs: A New Policy to Allocate Available Storage I. Gabriel-Martin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12040994
- Fuzzy risk analysis of dam overtopping from snowmelt floods in the nonstationarity case of the Manas River catchment, China K. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04143-0
- Bayesian network safety risk analysis for the dam–foundation system using Monte Carlo simulation X. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2022.109229
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 Sep 2026
Short summary
In this research, we explored how the sampling uncertainty of flood variables (flood peak, volume, etc.) can reflect on a structural variable, which in our case was the maximum water level (MWL) of a reservoir controlled by a dam. Next, we incorporated additional information from different sources for a better estimation of the uncertainty in the probability of exceedance of the MWL. Results showed the importance of providing confidence intervals in the risk assessment of a structure.
In this research, we explored how the sampling uncertainty of flood variables (flood peak,...
