Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3455-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3455-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
A new remote hazard and risk assessment framework for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya
Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at
Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Daene C. McKinney
Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at
Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Jonathan M. Lala
Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at
Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Alton C. Byers
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of
Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
C. Scott Watson
School of Geography, University
of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
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Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 1 % of initial glacier cover.
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Many glacial lakes in the Himalayas are held in place by natural sediment dams, which are prone to collapse, causing a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). This study models a GLOF as a process chain, in which an avalanche enters the lake, creates a large wave that erodes the sediment dam, and produces a flood downstream. Results indicate that Imja Tsho presents little hazard for the next 30 years, but the model is replicable and should be used at other lakes that may present greater hazard.
Ann V. Rowan, Lindsey Nicholson, Emily Collier, Duncan J. Quincey, Morgan J. Gibson, Patrick Wagnon, David R. Rounce, Sarah S. Thompson, Owen King, C. Scott Watson, Tristram D. L. Irvine-Fynn, and Neil F. Glasser
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Many glaciers in the Himalaya are covered with thick layers of rock debris that acts as an insulating blanket and so reduces melting of the underlying ice. Little is known about how melt beneath supraglacial debris varies across glaciers and through the monsoon season. We measured debris temperatures across three glaciers and several years to investigate seasonal trends, and found that sub-debris ice melt can be predicted using a temperature–depth relationship with surface temperature data.
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The Cryosphere, 11, 443–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-443-2017, 2017
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On 12 June 2016, the authors witnessed a glacier outburst flood with origins from Lhotse Glacier, located in the Everest region of Nepal. Observations regarding the size of the flood and a reconstruction of its path immediately following the event were performed. Most of the flood water was stored in the glacier's subsurface and likely released by dam failure. A similar flood from Lhotse Glacier was also reported by local community members on 25 May 2015.
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The Cryosphere, 9, 2295–2310, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015, 2015
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A debris-covered glacier energy balance was used to model debris temperatures and sub-debris ablation rates on Imja-Lhotse Shar Glacier during the 2014 melt season. Field measurements were used to assess model performance. A novel method was also developed using Structure from Motion to estimate the surface roughness. Lastly, the effects of temporal resolution, i.e., 6h and daily time steps, and various methods for estimating the latent heat flux were also investigated.
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Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 1 % of initial glacier cover.
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Evan S. Miles, C. Scott Watson, Fanny Brun, Etienne Berthier, Michel Esteves, Duncan J. Quincey, Katie E. Miles, Bryn Hubbard, and Patrick Wagnon
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We use high-resolution satellite imagery and field visits to assess the growth and drainage of a lake on Changri Shar Glacier in the Everest region, and its impact. The lake filled and drained within 3 months, which is a shorter interval than would be detected by standard monitoring protocols, but forced re-routing of major trails in several locations. The water appears to have flowed beneath Changri Shar and Khumbu glaciers in an efficient manner, suggesting pre-existing developed flow paths.
Jonathan M. Lala, David R. Rounce, and Daene C. McKinney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3721–3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Many glacial lakes in the Himalayas are held in place by natural sediment dams, which are prone to collapse, causing a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). This study models a GLOF as a process chain, in which an avalanche enters the lake, creates a large wave that erodes the sediment dam, and produces a flood downstream. Results indicate that Imja Tsho presents little hazard for the next 30 years, but the model is replicable and should be used at other lakes that may present greater hazard.
Rachel E. Chisolm and Daene C. McKinney
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This paper studies the lake dynamics for avalanche-triggered glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range in Ancash, Peru. Lake Palcacocha is used as a case study to analyze the upper watershed processes that typically comprise a GLOF event, specifically the lake dynamics when an avalanche produces a large displacement wave that might overtop and erode the lake-damming moraine.
Ann V. Rowan, Lindsey Nicholson, Emily Collier, Duncan J. Quincey, Morgan J. Gibson, Patrick Wagnon, David R. Rounce, Sarah S. Thompson, Owen King, C. Scott Watson, Tristram D. L. Irvine-Fynn, and Neil F. Glasser
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Many glaciers in the Himalaya are covered with thick layers of rock debris that acts as an insulating blanket and so reduces melting of the underlying ice. Little is known about how melt beneath supraglacial debris varies across glaciers and through the monsoon season. We measured debris temperatures across three glaciers and several years to investigate seasonal trends, and found that sub-debris ice melt can be predicted using a temperature–depth relationship with surface temperature data.
David R. Rounce, Alton C. Byers, Elizabeth A. Byers, and Daene C. McKinney
The Cryosphere, 11, 443–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-443-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 June 2016, the authors witnessed a glacier outburst flood with origins from Lhotse Glacier, located in the Everest region of Nepal. Observations regarding the size of the flood and a reconstruction of its path immediately following the event were performed. Most of the flood water was stored in the glacier's subsurface and likely released by dam failure. A similar flood from Lhotse Glacier was also reported by local community members on 25 May 2015.
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Rachel E. Chisolm, Denny S. Rivas, Cesar Portocarrero, and Daene C. McKinney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2519–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016, 2016
Short summary
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This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha above the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes starting form an avalanche falling into the lake and leading to a possible GLOF are simulated and converted into flood intensity and hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine.
D. R. Rounce, D. J. Quincey, and D. C. McKinney
The Cryosphere, 9, 2295–2310, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A debris-covered glacier energy balance was used to model debris temperatures and sub-debris ablation rates on Imja-Lhotse Shar Glacier during the 2014 melt season. Field measurements were used to assess model performance. A novel method was also developed using Structure from Motion to estimate the surface roughness. Lastly, the effects of temporal resolution, i.e., 6h and daily time steps, and various methods for estimating the latent heat flux were also investigated.
D. S. Rivas, M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, B. R. Hodges, and D. C. McKinney
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1163–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1163-2015, 2015
M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, D. C. McKinney, A. C. Byers, D. R. Rounce, C. Portocarrero, and D. Lamsal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1401–1412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1401-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1401-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The potential flooding impacts from Imja glacial lake in Nepal were studied using a two-dimensional debris-flow model to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures to reduce possible flooding impacts to downstream communities by lowering the lake level. The results indicate that only a minor benefits is achieved with modest (~3m) lowering and lowering of 20m almost eliminates all flood impact at Dingboche.
M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, D. C. McKinney, D. R. Rounce, and A. C. Byers
The Cryosphere, 8, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1661-2014, 2014
D. R. Rounce and D. C. McKinney
The Cryosphere, 8, 1317–1329, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1317-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Snow and Ice | Techniques and Approaches: Remote Sensing and GIS
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Characterising spatio-temporal variability in seasonal snow cover at a regional scale from MODIS data: the Clutha Catchment, New Zealand
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Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system
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Reducing cloud obscuration of MODIS snow cover area products by combining spatio-temporal techniques with a probability of snow approach
CREST-Snow Field Experiment: analysis of snowpack properties using multi-frequency microwave remote sensing data
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Responses of snowmelt runoff to climatic change in an inland river basin, Northwestern China, over the past 50 years
Assessing the application of a laser rangefinder for determining snow depth in inaccessible alpine terrain
Emmihenna Jääskeläinen, Kerttu Kouki, and Aku Riihelä
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3855–3870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3855-2024, 2024
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Snow cover is an important variable when studying the effect of climate change in the Arctic. Therefore, the correct detection of snowfall is important. In this study, we present methods to detect snowfall accurately using satellite observations. The snowfall event detection results of our limited area are encouraging. We find that further development could enable application over the whole Arctic, providing necessary information on precipitation occurrence over remote areas.
Justin M. Pflug, Melissa L. Wrzesien, Sujay V. Kumar, Eunsang Cho, Kristi R. Arsenault, Paul R. Houser, and Carrie M. Vuyovich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 631–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-631-2024, 2024
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Estimates of 250 m of snow water equivalent in the western USA and Canada are improved by assimilating observations representative of a snow-focused satellite mission with a land surface model. Here, by including a gap-filling strategy, snow estimates could be improved in forested regions where remote sensing is challenging. This approach improved estimates of winter maximum snow water volume to within 4 %, on average, with persistent improvements to both spring snow and runoff in many regions.
Eunsang Cho, Yonghwan Kwon, Sujay V. Kumar, and Carrie M. Vuyovich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4039–4056, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4039-2023, 2023
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An airborne gamma-ray remote-sensing technique provides reliable snow water equivalent (SWE) in a forested area where remote-sensing techniques (e.g., passive microwave) typically have large uncertainties. Here, we explore the utility of assimilating the gamma snow data into a land surface model to improve the modeled SWE estimates in the northeastern US. Results provide new insights into utilizing the gamma SWE data for enhanced land surface model simulations in forested environments.
Shuhong Wang, Jintao Liu, Hamish D. Pritchard, Linghong Ke, Xiao Qiao, Jie Zhang, Weihua Xiao, and Yuyan Zhou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 933–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-933-2023, 2023
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We assessed and compared the glacier areal retreat rate and surface thinning rate and the effects of topography, debris cover and proglacial lakes in the west Nyainqentanglha Range (WNT) during 1976–2000 and 2000–2020. Our study will help us to better understand the glacier change characteristics in the WNT on a long timescale and will serve as a reference for glacier changes in other regions on the Tibetan Plateau.
Xiaoyu Ma, Dongyue Li, Yiwen Fang, Steven A. Margulis, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 21–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-21-2023, 2023
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We explore satellite retrievals of snow water equivalent (SWE) along hypothetical ground tracks that would allow estimation of SWE over an entire watershed. The retrieval of SWE from satellites has proved elusive, but there are now technological options that do so along essentially one-dimensional tracks. We use machine learning (ML) algorithms as the basis for a track-to-area (TTA) transformation and show that at least one is robust enough to estimate domain-wide SWE with high accuracy.
Xiaohua Hao, Guanghui Huang, Zhaojun Zheng, Xingliang Sun, Wenzheng Ji, Hongyu Zhao, Jian Wang, Hongyi Li, and Xiaoyan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1937–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1937-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1937-2022, 2022
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We develop and validate a new 20-year MODIS snow-cover-extent product over China, which is dedicated to addressing known problems of the standard snow products. As expected, the new product significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art MODIS C6.1 products; improvements are particularly clear in forests and for the daily cloud-free product. Our product has provided more reliable snow knowledge over China and can be accessible freely https://dx.doi.org/10.11888/Snow.tpdc.271387.
Michael Schirmer and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 143–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-143-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-143-2020, 2020
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The spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) and melt are important for hydrological applications in alpine terrain. We measured the spatial distribution of melt using a drone in very high resolution and could relate melt to topographic characteristics. Interestingly, melt and SWE were not related spatially, which influences the speed of areal melt out. We could explain this by melt varying over larger distances than SWE.
Dorothy K. Hall, George A. Riggs, Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, and Miguel O. Román
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5227–5241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5227-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5227-2019, 2019
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Global snow cover maps have been available since 2000 from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and since 2000 and 2011 from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), respectively. These products are used extensively in hydrological modeling and climate studies. New, daily cloud-gap-filled snow products are available from both MODIS and VIIRS, and are being used to develop an Earth science data record.
Todd A. N. Redpath, Pascal Sirguey, and Nicolas J. Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3189–3217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3189-2019, 2019
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Spatio-temporal variability of seasonal snow cover is characterised from 16 years of MODIS data for the Clutha Catchment, New Zealand. No trend was detected in snow-covered area. Spatial modes of variability reveal the role of anomalous winter airflow. The sensitivity of snow cover duration to temperature and precipitation variability is found to vary spatially across the catchment. These findings provide new insight into seasonal snow processes in New Zealand and guidance for modelling efforts.
Andri Gunnarsson, Sigurður M. Garðarsson, and Óli G. B. Sveinsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3021–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3021-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3021-2019, 2019
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In this study a gap-filled snow cover product for Iceland is developed using MODIS satellite data and validated with both in situ observations and alternative remote sensing data sources with good agreement. Information about snow cover extent, duration and changes over time is presented, indicating that snow cover extent has been increasing slightly for the past few years.
Xinghua Li, Yinghong Jing, Huanfeng Shen, and Liangpei Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2401–2416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2401-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2401-2019, 2019
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This paper is a review article on the cloud removal methods of MODIS snow cover products.
Rose Petersky and Adrian Harpold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4891–4906, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4891-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4891-2018, 2018
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Ephemeral snowpacks are snowpacks that persist for less than 2 months. We show that ephemeral snowpacks melt earlier and provide less soil water input in the spring. Elevation is strongly correlated with whether snowpacks are ephemeral or seasonal. Snowpacks were also more likely to be ephemeral on south-facing slopes than north-facing slopes at high elevations. In warm years, the Great Basin shifts to ephemerally dominant as rain becomes more prevalent at increasing elevations.
Elisabeth Baldo and Steven A. Margulis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3575–3587, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3575-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3575-2018, 2018
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Montane snowpacks are extremely complex to represent and usually require assimilating remote sensing images at very fine spatial resolutions, which is computationally expensive. Adapting the grid size of the terrain to its complexity was shown to cut runtime and storage needs by half while preserving the accuracy of ~ 100 m snow estimates. This novel approach will facilitate the large-scale implementation of high-resolution remote sensing data assimilation over snow-dominated montane ranges.
Alejandra Stehr and Mauricio Aguayo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5111–5126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5111-2017, 2017
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In Chile there is a lack of hydrological data, which complicates the analysis of important hydrological processes. In this study we validate a remote sensing product, i.e. the MODIS snow product, in Chile using ground observations, obtaining good results. Then MODIS was use to evaluated snow cover dynamic during 2000–2016 at five watersheds in Chile. The analysis shows that there is a significant reduction in snow cover area in two watersheds located in the northern part of the study area.
S. Gascoin, O. Hagolle, M. Huc, L. Jarlan, J.-F. Dejoux, C. Szczypta, R. Marti, and R. Sánchez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2337–2351, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2337-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2337-2015, 2015
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There is a good agreement between the MODIS snow products and observations from automatic stations and Landsat snow maps in the Pyrenees. The optimal thresholds for which a MODIS pixel is marked as snow-covered are 40mm in water equivalent and 150mm in snow depth.
We generate a gap-filled snow cover climatology for the Pyrenees. We compute the mean snow cover duration by elevation and aspect classes. We show anomalous snow patterns in 2012 and consequences on hydropower production.
P. Da Ronco and C. De Michele
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4579–4600, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4579-2014, 2014
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The negative impacts of cloud obstruction in snow mapping from MODIS and a new reliable cloud removal procedure for the Italian Alps.
P. D. Micheletty, A. M. Kinoshita, and T. S. Hogue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4601–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4601-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4601-2014, 2014
P. B. Kirchner, R. C. Bales, N. P. Molotch, J. Flanagan, and Q. Guo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4261–4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4261-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4261-2014, 2014
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In this study we present results from LiDAR snow depth measurements made over 53 sq km and a 1600 m elevation gradient. We found a lapse rate of 15 cm accumulated snow depth and 6 cm SWE per 100 m in elevation until 3300 m, where depth sharply decreased. Residuals from this trend revealed the role of aspect and highlighted the importance of solar radiation and wind for snow distribution. Lastly, we compared LiDAR SWE estimations with four model estimates of SWE and total precipitation.
S. Hasson, V. Lucarini, M. R. Khan, M. Petitta, T. Bolch, and G. Gioli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4077–4100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4077-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4077-2014, 2014
S. Surer, J. Parajka, and Z. Akyurek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 763–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-763-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-763-2014, 2014
V. López-Burgos, H. V. Gupta, and M. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1809–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1809-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1809-2013, 2013
T. Y. Lakhankar, J. Muñoz, P. Romanov, A. M. Powell, N. Y. Krakauer, W. B. Rossow, and R. M. Khanbilvardi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 783–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-783-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-783-2013, 2013
A. A. Tahir, P. Chevallier, Y. Arnaud, and B. Ahmad
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2275–2290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2275-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2275-2011, 2011
J. Wang, H. Li, and X. Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1979–1987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1979-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1979-2010, 2010
J. L. Hood and M. Hayashi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 901–910, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-901-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-901-2010, 2010
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Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure as they rapidly unleash stored lake water. Nepal is home to many potentially dangerous glacial lakes, yet a holistic understanding of the hazards faced by these lakes is lacking. This study develops a framework using remotely sensed data to investigate the hazards and risks associated with each glacial lake and discusses how this assessment may help inform future management actions.
Glacial lake outburst floods pose a significant threat to downstream communities and...