- Article
(3970 KB) - Metadata XML
- Articles & preprints
- Submission
- Policies
- Peer review
- Editorial board
- About
- EGU publications
- Manuscript tracking
Journal cover
Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic
- Articles & preprints
- Submission
- Policies
- Peer review
- Editorial board
- About
- EGU publications
- Manuscript tracking
Journal metrics
IF5.153
IF 5-year
5.460
5.460
CiteScore
7.8
7.8
SNIP1.623
IPP4.91
SJR2.092
Scimago H
index123
index123
h5-index65
Abstracted/indexed
Abstracted/indexedShort summary
Is the occurrence of floods changing in frequency or magnitude? We have analyzed 100 years of observed time series from 69 gauging sites and high-resolution modeling of climate change impact across Sweden for 140 years. The results indicate no significant trend in high flows in the past but some shifts in flood-generating processes at present and in the future. Rain-generated floods may have a more marked effect, and some specific rivers may be more affected by climate change than others.
Is the occurrence of floods changing in frequency or magnitude? We have analyzed 100 years of...
Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 771–784, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-771-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 771–784, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-771-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 04 Feb 2015
Research article | 04 Feb 2015
Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911–2100)
B. Arheimer and G. Lindström
Related authors
Berit Arheimer, Rafael Pimentel, Kristina Isberg, Louise Crochemore, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Abdulghani Hasan, and Luis Pineda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 535–559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-535-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
How far can we reach in predicting river flow globally, using integrated catchment modelling and open global data? For the first time, a catchment model was applied world-wide, covering the entire globe with a relatively high resolution. The results show that stepwise calibration provided better performance than traditional modelling of the globe. The study highlights that open data and models are crucial to advance hydrological sciences by sharing knowledge and enabling transparent evaluation.
Theano Iliopoulou, Cristina Aguilar, Berit Arheimer, María Bermúdez, Nejc Bezak, Andrea Ficchì, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Juraj Parajka, María José Polo, Guillaume Thirel, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 73–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the seasonal memory properties of a large sample of European rivers in terms of high and low flows. We compute seasonal correlations between peak and low flows and average flows in the previous seasons and explore the links with various physiographic and hydro-climatic catchment descriptors. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be employed to reduce uncertainty and improve probabilistic predictions of floods and droughts.
Alessio Pugliese, Simone Persiano, Stefano Bagli, Paolo Mazzoli, Juraj Parajka, Berit Arheimer, René Capell, Alberto Montanari, Günter Blöschl, and Attilio Castellarin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4633–4648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This research work focuses on the development of an innovative method for enhancing the predictive capability of macro-scale rainfall–runoff models by means of a geostatistical apporach. In our method, one can get enhanced streamflow simulations without any further model calibration. Indeed, this method is neither computational nor data-intensive and is implemented only using observed streamflow data and a GIS vector layer with catchment boundaries. Assessments are performed in the Tyrol region.
Rafael Pimentel and Berit Arheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-387, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The Västmanland wildfire, Sweden, burned 14 000 hectares and removed the Boreal forest in this area during the summer 2014. This empirical study evaluates the hydrological effects of this wildfire. A paired catchment methodology is used to evaluate 23 catchment characteristics of flow and physiography defined using in situ and remote sensing data. The results show a change in the snow dynamics over the burnt areas with shorter duration of the snow season and a higher stream flow during autumn.
Fernando Jaramillo, Neil Cory, Berit Arheimer, Hjalmar Laudon, Ype van der Velde, Thomas B. Hasper, Claudia Teutschbein, and Johan Uddling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 567–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-567-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-567-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Which is the dominant effect on evapotranspiration in northern forests, an increase by recent forests expansion or a decrease by the water use response due to increasing CO2 concentrations? We determined the dominant effect during the period 1961–2012 in 65 Swedish basins. We used the Budyko framework to study the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space. Our findings suggest that forest expansion is the dominant driver of long-term and large-scale evapotranspiration changes.
Anna Kuentz, Berit Arheimer, Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2863–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2863-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2863-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Our study aims to explore and understand the physical controls on spatial patterns of pan-European flow signatures by taking advantage of large open datasets. Using tools like correlation analysis, stepwise regressions and different types of catchment classifications, we explore the relationships between catchment descriptors and flow signatures across 35 215 catchments which cover a wide range of pan-European physiographic and anthropogenic characteristics.
Remko Nijzink, Christopher Hutton, Ilias Pechlivanidis, René Capell, Berit Arheimer, Jim Freer, Dawei Han, Thorsten Wagener, Kevin McGuire, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is typically treated as a calibration parameter in hydrological models and often considered to remain constant in time. In this paper we test the potential of a recently introduced method to robustly estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities exclusively based on climate data to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage under change (deforestation).
I. G. Pechlivanidis and B. Arheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4559–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4559-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4559-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the recommendations for flow predictions in ungauged catchments to address the challenges at the large scale. We use examples from the HYPE hydrological model set-up across 6000 subbasins for the Indian subcontinent. Multi-basin modelling reveals the spatial patterns of catchment functioning and dominant flow processes across the hydroclimatic gradient. The model set-up procedure according to the PUB recommendations brought insights into where the single model structure is inadequate.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
Berit Arheimer, Rafael Pimentel, Kristina Isberg, Louise Crochemore, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Abdulghani Hasan, and Luis Pineda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 535–559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-535-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
How far can we reach in predicting river flow globally, using integrated catchment modelling and open global data? For the first time, a catchment model was applied world-wide, covering the entire globe with a relatively high resolution. The results show that stepwise calibration provided better performance than traditional modelling of the globe. The study highlights that open data and models are crucial to advance hydrological sciences by sharing knowledge and enabling transparent evaluation.
Theano Iliopoulou, Cristina Aguilar, Berit Arheimer, María Bermúdez, Nejc Bezak, Andrea Ficchì, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Juraj Parajka, María José Polo, Guillaume Thirel, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 73–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the seasonal memory properties of a large sample of European rivers in terms of high and low flows. We compute seasonal correlations between peak and low flows and average flows in the previous seasons and explore the links with various physiographic and hydro-climatic catchment descriptors. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be employed to reduce uncertainty and improve probabilistic predictions of floods and droughts.
Alessio Pugliese, Simone Persiano, Stefano Bagli, Paolo Mazzoli, Juraj Parajka, Berit Arheimer, René Capell, Alberto Montanari, Günter Blöschl, and Attilio Castellarin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4633–4648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This research work focuses on the development of an innovative method for enhancing the predictive capability of macro-scale rainfall–runoff models by means of a geostatistical apporach. In our method, one can get enhanced streamflow simulations without any further model calibration. Indeed, this method is neither computational nor data-intensive and is implemented only using observed streamflow data and a GIS vector layer with catchment boundaries. Assessments are performed in the Tyrol region.
Rafael Pimentel and Berit Arheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-387, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The Västmanland wildfire, Sweden, burned 14 000 hectares and removed the Boreal forest in this area during the summer 2014. This empirical study evaluates the hydrological effects of this wildfire. A paired catchment methodology is used to evaluate 23 catchment characteristics of flow and physiography defined using in situ and remote sensing data. The results show a change in the snow dynamics over the burnt areas with shorter duration of the snow season and a higher stream flow during autumn.
Fernando Jaramillo, Neil Cory, Berit Arheimer, Hjalmar Laudon, Ype van der Velde, Thomas B. Hasper, Claudia Teutschbein, and Johan Uddling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 567–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-567-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-567-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Which is the dominant effect on evapotranspiration in northern forests, an increase by recent forests expansion or a decrease by the water use response due to increasing CO2 concentrations? We determined the dominant effect during the period 1961–2012 in 65 Swedish basins. We used the Budyko framework to study the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space. Our findings suggest that forest expansion is the dominant driver of long-term and large-scale evapotranspiration changes.
Anna Kuentz, Berit Arheimer, Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2863–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2863-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2863-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Our study aims to explore and understand the physical controls on spatial patterns of pan-European flow signatures by taking advantage of large open datasets. Using tools like correlation analysis, stepwise regressions and different types of catchment classifications, we explore the relationships between catchment descriptors and flow signatures across 35 215 catchments which cover a wide range of pan-European physiographic and anthropogenic characteristics.
Remko Nijzink, Christopher Hutton, Ilias Pechlivanidis, René Capell, Berit Arheimer, Jim Freer, Dawei Han, Thorsten Wagener, Kevin McGuire, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is typically treated as a calibration parameter in hydrological models and often considered to remain constant in time. In this paper we test the potential of a recently introduced method to robustly estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities exclusively based on climate data to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage under change (deforestation).
I. G. Pechlivanidis and B. Arheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4559–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4559-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4559-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the recommendations for flow predictions in ungauged catchments to address the challenges at the large scale. We use examples from the HYPE hydrological model set-up across 6000 subbasins for the Indian subcontinent. Multi-basin modelling reveals the spatial patterns of catchment functioning and dominant flow processes across the hydroclimatic gradient. The model set-up procedure according to the PUB recommendations brought insights into where the single model structure is inadequate.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
The role and value of distributed precipitation data in hydrological models
Flood spatial coherence, triggers, and performance in hydrological simulations: large-sample evaluation of four streamflow-calibrated models
Flexible vector-based spatial configurations in land models
Two-stage variational mode decomposition and support vector regression for streamflow forecasting
Predicting probabilities of streamflow intermittency across a temperate mesoscale catchment
Importance of the informative content in the study area when regionalising rainfall-runoff model parameters: the role of nested catchments and gauging station density
Which rainfall score is more informative about the performance in river discharge simulation? A comprehensive assessment on 1318 basins over Europe
Assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) brightness temperature into a large-scale distributed conceptual hydrological model to improve soil moisture predictions: the Murray–Darling basin in Australia as a test case
Frequency and magnitude variability of Yalu River flooding: numerical analyses for the last 1000 years
Assessing the degree of detail of temperature-based snow routines for runoff modelling in mountainous areas in central Europe
Adaptive clustering: reducing the computational costs of distributed (hydrological) modelling by exploiting time-variable similarity among model elements
Climate elasticity of evapotranspiration shifts the water balance of Mediterranean climates during multi-year droughts
A history of TOPMODEL
Future streamflow regime changes in the United States: assessment using functional classification
Risks and opportunities for a Swiss hydroelectricity company in a changing climate
Survival of the Qaidam mega-lake system under mid-Pliocene climates and its restoration under future climates
Hydrological evaluation of open-access precipitation data using SWAT at multiple temporal and spatial scales
Understanding coastal wetland conditions and futures by closing their hydrologic balance: the case of the Gialova lagoon, Greece
Why does a conceptual hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to climate change?
Sensitivity of meteorological-forcing resolution on hydrologic variables
The era of Infiltration
Using altimetry observations combined with GRACE to select parameter sets of a hydrological model in a data-scarce region
Assessing the impact of seasonal-rainfall anomalies on catchment-scale water balance components
Progressive water deficits during multi-year droughts in central-south Chile
Crossing hydrological and geochemical modeling to understand the spatiotemporal variability of water chemistry in a headwater catchment (Strengbach, France)
Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by the internal variability of climate in southern Ontario
On the shape of forward transit time distributions in low-order catchments
Linking economic and social factors to peak flows in an agricultural watershed using socio-hydrologic modeling
Diagnosis of future changes in hydrology for a Canadian Rockies headwater basin
Should altitudinal gradients of temperature and precipitation inputs be inferred from key parameters in snow-hydrological models?
Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis as a potential reference dataset for hydrological modelling over North America
Multistep-ahead daily inflow forecasting using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set based on gradient-boosting regression trees
Behind the scenes of streamflow model performance
Quantifying the impacts of human water use and climate variations on recent drying of Lake Urmia basin: the value of different sets of spaceborne and in situ data for calibrating a global hydrological model
Irrigation, damming, and streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River
Surface water and groundwater: unifying conceptualization and quantification of the two “water worlds”
Intra-catchment variability of surface saturation – insights from physically based simulations in comparison with biweekly thermal infrared image observations
Reconstructing the 2015 Salgar flash flood using radar retrievals and a conceptual modeling framework in an ungauged basin
Dynamics of hydrological-model parameters: mechanisms, problems and solutions
Understanding dominant controls on streamflow spatial variability to set up a semi-distributed hydrological model: the case study of the Thur catchment
Hydrograph separation: an impartial parametrisation for an imperfect method
Evaporation from a large lowland reservoir – (dis)agreement between evaporation models from hourly to decadal timescales
Beyond binary baseflow separation: a delayed-flow index for multiple streamflow contributions
On the configuration and initialization of a large-scale hydrological land surface model to represent permafrost
On the representation of water reservoir storage and operations in large-scale hydrological models: implications on model parameterization and climate change impact assessments
A time-varying parameter estimation approach using split-sample calibration based on dynamic programming
A global Budyko model to partition evaporation into interception and transpiration
Are the effects of vegetation and soil changes as important as climate change impacts on hydrological processes?
Expansion and contraction of the flowing stream network alter hillslope flowpath lengths and the shape of the travel time distribution
A virtual hydrological framework for evaluation of stochastic rainfall models
Ralf Loritz, Markus Hrachowitz, Malte Neuper, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role and value of distributed rainfall in the runoff generation of a mesoscale catchment. We compare the performance of different hydrological models at different periods and show that a distributed model driven by distributed rainfall yields improved performances only during certain periods. We then step beyond this finding and develop a spatially adaptive model that is capable of dynamically adjusting its spatial model structure in time.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Shervan Gharari, Martyn P. Clark, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Jefferson S. Wong, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5953–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5953-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work explores the trade-off between the accuracy of the representation of geospatial data, such as land cover, soil type, and elevation zones, in a land (surface) model and its performance in the context of modeling. We used a vector-based setup instead of the commonly used grid-based setup to identify this trade-off. We also assessed the often neglected parameter uncertainty and its impact on the land model simulations.
Ganggang Zuo, Jungang Luo, Ni Wang, Yani Lian, and Xinxin He
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5491–5518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A two-stage variational mode decomposition and support vector regression is designed to reduce the influence of boundary effects without removing or correcting boundary-affected decompositions. The proposed model significantly reduces the boundary effect consequences, saves modeling time and computation resources, barely overfits the calibration samples, and forecasts monthly runoff reasonably well compared to the benchmark models.
Nils Hinrich Kaplan, Theresa Blume, and Markus Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5453–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5453-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades the demand for detailed information of spatial and temporal dynamics of the stream network has grown in the fields of eco-hydrology and extreme flow prediction. We use temporal streamflow intermittency data obtained at various sites using innovative sensing technology as well as spatial predictors to predict and map probabilities of streamflow intermittency. This approach has the potential to provide intermittency maps for hydrological modelling and management practices.
Mattia Neri, Juraj Parajka, and Elena Toth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5149–5171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5149-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most informative ways to gain information on ungauged river sections is through the implementation of a rainfall-runoff model, exploiting the information collected in gauged catchments in the study area. This study analyses how the performances of different model regionalisation approaches are influenced by the informative content of the available regional data set, in order to identify the methods that are more suitable for the data availability in the region.
Stefania Camici, Christian Massari, Luca Ciabatta, Ivan Marchesini, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4869–4885, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper performs the most comprehensive European-scale evaluation to date of satellite rainfall products for river flow prediction. In doing so, how errors transfer from satellite-based rainfall products into flood simulation is investigated in depth and, for the first time, quantitative guidelines on the use of these products for hydrological applications are provided. This result can represent a keystone in the use of satellite rainfall products, especially in data-scarce regions.
Renaud Hostache, Dominik Rains, Kaniska Mallick, Marco Chini, Ramona Pelich, Hans Lievens, Fabrizio Fenicia, Giovanni Corato, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Patrick Matgen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4793–4812, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4793-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our objective is to investigate how satellite microwave sensors, particularly Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), may help to reduce errors and uncertainties in soil moisture simulations with a large-scale conceptual hydro-meteorological model. We assimilated a long time series of SMOS observations into a hydro-meteorological model and showed that this helps to improve model predictions. This work therefore contributes to the development of faster and more accurate drought prediction tools.
Hui Sheng, Xiaomei Xu, Jian Hua Gao, Albert J. Kettner, Yong Shi, Chengfeng Xue, Ya Ping Wang, and Shu Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4743–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4743-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4743-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the variability of past flooding by applying a numerical model coupled with historical records of regional climate and anthropogenic activity under the deficiency of observations. We conclude that trends in flooding frequency were predominantly modulated by the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events, which highlights the need for the implementation of effective river engineering measures to counteract increasing flood risks as a result of the future.
Marc Girons Lopez, Marc J. P. Vis, Michal Jenicek, Nena Griessinger, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4441–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Snow processes are crucial for runoff in mountainous areas, but their complexity makes water management difficult. Temperature models are widely used as they are simple and do not require much data, but not much thought is usually given to which model to use, which may lead to bad predictions. We studied the impact of many model alternatives and found that a more complex model does not necessarily perform better. Finding which processes are most important in each area is a much better strategy.
Uwe Ehret, Rik van Pruijssen, Marina Bortoli, Ralf Loritz, Elnaz Azmi, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4389–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4389-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose adaptive clustering as a new method for reducing the computational efforts of distributed modelling. It consists of identifying similar-acting model elements during the runtime, clustering them, running the model for just a few representatives per cluster, and mapping their results to the remaining model elements in the cluster. With the example of a hydrological model, we show that this saves considerable computation time, while largely maintaining the output quality.
Francesco Avanzi, Joseph Rungee, Tessa Maurer, Roger Bales, Qin Ma, Steven Glaser, and Martha Conklin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4317-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4317-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts in Mediterranean climates often see a lower fraction of precipitation allocated to runoff compared to non-drought years. By comparing observed water-balance components with simulations by a hydrologic model (PRMS), we reinterpret these shifts as a hysteretic response of the water budget to climate elasticity of evapotranspiration. Our results point to a general improvement in hydrologic predictions across drought and recovery cycles by including this mechanism.
Keith J. Beven, Rob Lamb, Mike J. Kirkby, and Jim E. Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-409, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-409, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The theory that forms the basis of Topmodel was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments; the rejection of the first journal paper; the early days of digital terrain analysis; model calibration and validation; the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions; the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of Topmodel; and considers what we might do now with the benefit of hindsight.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow seasonality is changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change. We here assess how annual streamflow hydrographs will change in future by using a newly developed classification scheme. Our comparison of future with current annual hydrograph classes shows that robust changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These upstream changes may require the adaptation of management strategies in downstream regions.
Kirsti Hakala, Nans Addor, Thibault Gobbe, Johann Ruffieux, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3815-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Under a changing climate, reliable information on future hydrological conditions is necessary to inform water resource management. Here, we collaborated with a hydropower company that selected streamflow and energy demand indices. Using these indices, we identified stakeholder needs and used this to tailor the production of our climate change impact projections. We show that opportunities and risks for a hydropower company depend on a range of factors beyond those covered by traditional studies.
Dieter Scherer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3835–3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3835-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the Pliocene, the Qaidam Basin on the Tibetan Plateau contained a mega-lake system. During the Pleistocene, it disappeared almost completely. Today, hyperarid climates prevail in the low-altitude parts of the basin. This study reveals that today's mean water balance of the Qaidam Basin is nearly zero and is positive during warmer, less dry years. The results explain how the mega-lake system could survive for a long time in the past and could eventually be restored in the future.
Jianzhuang Pang, Huilan Zhang, Quanxi Xu, Yujie Wang, Yunqi Wang, Ouyang Zhang, and Jiaxin Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3603–3626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3603-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3603-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
As frequently used precipitation products, Gauge, CPC, and CHIRPS presented different behaviors in describing precipitation on different spatial and temporal scales, yet these dissimilarities could be concealed in hydrological modeling by parameter calibration and validation. Parameter adjustment in hydrologic modeling, however, would yield different water balance components and thus alter hydrologic mechanisms, demonstrating the complexity in physically describing natural hydrologic processes.
Stefano Manzoni, Giorgos Maneas, Anna Scaini, Basil E. Psiloglou, Georgia Destouni, and Steve W. Lyon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3557–3571, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3557-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3557-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A modeling tool is developed to assess the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to climatic and water management changes. Applied to the case study of the Gialova lagoon (Greece), this tool highlights the reliance of the lagoon functionality on scarce freshwater sources already under high demand from agriculture. Climatic changes will likely increase lagoon salinity, despite efforts to improve water management.
Doris Duethmann, Günter Blöschl, and Juraj Parajka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3493–3511, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3493-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate why a conceptual hydrological model failed to correctly predict observed discharge changes in response to increasing precipitation and air temperature in 156 Austrian catchments. Simulations indicate that poor model performance is related to two problems, namely a model structure that neglects changes in vegetation dynamics and inhomogeneities in precipitation data caused by changes in stations density with time. Other hypotheses did not improve simulated discharge changes.
Fadji Z. Maina, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, and Pouya Vahmani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3451–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3451-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3451-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projecting the changes in water resources under a no-analog future climate requires integrated hydrologic models. However, these models are plagued by several sources of uncertainty. A hydrologic model was forced with various resolutions of meteorological forcing (0.5 to 40.5 km) to assess its sensitivity to these inputs. We show that most hydrologic variables reveal biases that are seasonally and spatially dependent, which can have serious implications for calibration and water management.
Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-308, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Inspired by a quotation from Howard Cook in 1946, this paper traces the evolution of the infiltration theory of runoff from the work of Robert Horton and LeRoy Sherman in the 1930s to the early digital computer models of the 1970s and 1980s. Reconsideration of the perceptual model for many catchments, partly as a result of the greater appreciation of the contribution of subsurface flows to the hydrograph indicated by tracer studies, suggests a reconsideration of hydrological nomenclature.
Petra Hulsman, Hessel C. Winsemius, Claire I. Michailovsky, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3331–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the absence of discharge data in ungauged basins, remotely sensed river water level data, i.e. altimetry, may provide valuable information to calibrate hydrological models. This study illustrated that for large rivers in data-scarce regions, river altimetry data from multiple locations combined with GRACE data have the potential to fill this gap when combined with estimates of the river geometry, thereby allowing a step towards more reliable hydrological modelling in data-scarce regions.
Paolo Nasta, Carolina Allocca, Roberto Deidda, and Nunzio Romano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3211–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3211-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3211-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall seasonal anomalies in a Mediterranean climate are assessed by using two distinct approaches: a static approach based on the standardized precipitation index and a dynamic approach that identifies the rainy season by considering rainfall magnitude, timing, and duration. The impact of rainfall seasonality on catchment-scale water balance components is evaluated through scenario-based simulations of the Soil Water Assessment Tool in the upper Alento River catchment in southern Italy.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-249, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The megadrought experienced since 2010 in Chile has led to larger than expected water deficits, indicating an intensification in drought propagation. By analysing 124 catchments with varying snow/rainfall regimes, we show that such intensification is related to the hydrological memory of the catchments, and we identify the mechanisms associated to this memory. Under persistent dry conditions, snow-dominated catchments progressively generate less water, compared with their historical behaviour.
Julien Ackerer, Benjamin Jeannot, Frederick Delay, Sylvain Weill, Yann Lucas, Bertrand Fritz, Daniel Viville, and François Chabaux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3111–3133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3111-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3111-2020, 2020
Olivier Champagne, M. Altaf Arain, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and Shawn McKenzie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3077–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3077-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3077-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using 50 members of one regional climate model and a processed-based hydrological model applied in four river basins in southern Ontario, this work focused on the winter streamflow projection uncertainties for the first half of 21st century. The results show a January–February increase of streamflow for the 50 projections due to early snowmelt and a rainfall increase. The streamflow projections are also modulated by the change of pressure patterns advecting different air masses over the region.
Ingo Heidbüchel, Jie Yang, Andreas Musolff, Peter Troch, Ty Ferré, and Jan H. Fleckenstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2895-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2895-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
With the help of a 3-D computer model we examined how long the water of different rain events stays inside small catchments before it is discharged and how the nature of this discharge is controlled by different catchment and climate properties. We found that one can only predict the discharge dynamics when taking into account a combination of catchment and climate properties (i.e., there was not one single most important predictor). Our results can help to manage water pollution events.
David Dziubanski, Kristie J. Franz, and William Gutowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2873–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2873-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2873-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a socio-hydrologic model that couples an agent-based model (ABM) of human decision-making with a hydrologic model. We establish this model for a typical agricultural watershed in Iowa, USA, and simulate the evolution of large discharge events over a 47-year period under changing land use. Using this modeling approach, relationships between seemingly unrelated variables such as crop markets or crop yields and local peak flow trends are quantified.
Xing Fang and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2731–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model near-surface outputs from control and future periods were bias-corrected by downscaling outputs with respect to meteorological stations in Marmot Creek Research Basin, Canadian Rocky Mountains. A hydrological model simulation driven by the bias-corrected outputs showed declined seasonal peak snowpack, shorter snow-cover duration, higher evapotranspiration, and increased streamflow discharge in Marmot Creek for the warmer and wetter future.
Denis Ruelland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2609–2632, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Interpolation methods accounting for elevation dependency from scattered gauges result in inaccurate inputs for snow-hydrological models. Altitudinal gradients of temperature and precipitation can be successfully inferred using an inverse snow-hydrological modelling approach. This approach can significantly improve the simulation of snow cover and streamflow dynamics through more parsimonious parametrization.
Mostafa Tarek, François P. Brissette, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2527–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2527-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2527-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The ERA5 reanalysis dataset is characterized by its high spatial (0.25) and temporal (hourly) resolutions and has therefore a large potential to drive environmental models in regions where the network of stations is deficient. ERA5 performance is evaluated on 3138 North American catchments. Results indicate that for hydrological modelling, ERA5 precipitation and temperature are just as good as observation all over North America, with the exception of the eastern half of the US.
Shengli Liao, Zhanwei Liu, Benxi Liu, Chuntian Cheng, Xinfeng Jin, and Zhipeng Zhao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2343–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2343-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Inflow forecasting plays an essential role in reservoir management and operation. To improve the accuracy of multistep-ahead daily inflow forecasting, the paper develops a new hybrid inflow forecast framework using ERA-Interim data. We find that the framework significantly enhances the accuracy of inflow forecasting at lead times of 4–10 d compared with widely used and mature methods. This research provides a reference for operational inflow forecasting in remote regions.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Lieke A. Melsen, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Sotirios Moustakas, Patrick Willems, Benjamin Grelier, Gilles Drogue, Fabrizio Fenicia, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Benjamin J. Dewals, Albrecht H. Weerts, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-176, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of twelve process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely-sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Shahab Araghinejad, Mohammad J. Tourian, Kumars Ebrahimi, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1939–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1939-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1939-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses a multi-objective approach for calibrating the WGHM model to determine the role of human water use and climate variations in the recent loss of water storage in Lake Urmia basin, Iran. We found that even without human water use Lake Urmia would not have recovered from the significant loss of lake water volume caused by the drought year 2008.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Feng Zhou, Xuhui Wang, Polcher Jan, Patrice Dumas, Shushi Peng, Laurent Li, Xudong Zhou, and Shilong Piao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-7, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the irrigation module in a land surface model and developed a dam operation model in aim to investigate how these human activities affect the discharge of the Yellow River in China. The results show that the irrigation mainly result in the decrease of the discharge. The dam operations, however, mainly affect the river discharge fluctuations. By considering only two operation rules: flood control and base flow guarantee, our dam model can sustainably improve the simulation accuracy.
Brian Berkowitz and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1831–1858, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1831-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a
blueprintfor a unified modelling framework to quantify chemical transport in both surface water and groundwater systems. There has been extensive debate over recent decades, particularly in the surface water literature, about how to explain and account for long travel times of chemical species that are distinct from water flow (rainfall-runoff) travel times. We suggest a powerful modelling framework known to be robust and effective from the field of groundwater hydrology.
Barbara Glaser, Marta Antonelli, Luisa Hopp, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1393–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1393-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The inundation of flood-prone areas can have crucial impacts on runoff generation and water quality. We investigate the variation of flooding in space and time along a small stream with long-term observations and numerical simulations. We demonstrate that the main reason for the flooding is the exfiltration of groundwater into local topographic depressions. However, only interplay with further influencing factors can explain all of the variability of the observed flooding patterns and dynamics.
Nicolás Velásquez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Jaime I. Vélez, and Esneider Zapata
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1367–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1367-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During 18 May 2015, a storm event produced a flash flood in the municipality of Salgar (northwestern Colombian Andes), resulting in more than 100 human casualties and significant economic losses. Here we present a modeled process reconstruction of what happened during this event. For this, we only use radar rainfall estimations and a digital elevation model. Results show that with scarce data there is an opportunity to obtain acceptable tools for risk management and decision making.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Chong-Yu Xu, Xuezhi Tan, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1347–1366, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1347-2020, 2020
Marco Dal Molin, Mario Schirmer, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1319-2020, 2020
Antoine Pelletier and Vazken Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1171–1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1171-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1171-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There are many ways for water to join a river after a rainfall event, but they can be split into two categories: the quick ones that remain in the surface and the slow ones that use other trajectories. Thus, measured streamflow of a river can be split into two components: quickflow and baseflow. We present a new method to perform this separation, using only streamflow and rainfall data, which are generally broadly available. It is then used as an analysis tool of river dynamics over France.
Femke A. Jansen and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1055-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1055-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We characterized the (dis)agreement between six evaporation methods from hourly to decadal timescales, focussing on the IJsselmeer region in the Netherlands. The projected changes in mean yearly water losses through evaporation between the years 2000 and 2100 range from 4 mm to 94 mm among the methods. We therefore stress that the choice of method is of great importance for water managers in their decision making.
Michael Stoelzle, Tobias Schuetz, Markus Weiler, Kerstin Stahl, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 849–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-849-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-849-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During dry weather, different delayed sources of runoff (e.g. from groundwater, wetlands or snowmelt) modulate the magnitude and variability of streamflow. Hydrograph separation methods often do not distinguish these delayed contributions and mostly pool them into only two components (i.e. quickflow and baseflow). We propose a method that uncovers multiple components and demonstrates how they better reflect streamflow generation processes of different flow regimes.
Mohamed E. Elshamy, Daniel Princz, Gonzalo Sapriza-Azuri, Mohamed S. Abdelhamed, Al Pietroniro, Howard S. Wheater, and Saman Razavi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 349–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-349-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost is an important feature of cold-region hydrology and needs to be properly represented in hydrological and land surface models (H-LSMs), especially under the observed and expected climate warming trends. This study aims to devise a robust, yet computationally efficient, initialization and parameterization approach for permafrost. We used permafrost observations from three sites along the Mackenzie River valley spanning different permafrost classes to test the validity of the approach.
Thanh Duc Dang, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, and Stefano Galelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-397-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A common problem in catchment hydrology lies in the representation of dams in numerical models. Here, we contribute to the existing literature by showing that the representation of water reservoirs can largely impact the model parameters, a result attained by comparing the parameters of a model for the upper Mekong basin built with or without reservoirs. We show that a flawed parameter estimation affects the representation of key physical processes and the downstream applications of the model.
Xiaojing Zhang and Pan Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-639, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall-runoff models are useful tools for streamflow simulation, however, efforts are needed to investigate how their parameters vary in response to climate changes and human activities. Thus, this study proposes a new method for estimating time-varying parameters, by considering both simulation accuracy and parameter continuity. The results show the proposed method is more effective for identifying temporal variations of parameters, and can simultaneously provide good streamflow simulation.
Ameneh Mianabadi, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Pooya Shirazi, Bijan Ghahraman, and Amin Alizadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4983–5000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4983-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4983-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation is the biggest water consumer of the rainfall that falls on the land. Knowing its magnitude will help water resources to develop water use strategies. This study describes a model that can estimate the magnitude of evaporation on a global level. It does not use local information, only information from rainfall and vegetation patterns derived from satellites.
Kabir Rasouli, John W. Pomeroy, and Paul H. Whitfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4933–4954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4933-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4933-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The combined effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and soils on mountain hydrology were modeled in three mountain basins. In the Yukon, an insignificant increasing effect of vegetation change on snow was found to be important enough to offset the climate change effect. In the Canadian Rockies, a combined effect of soil and climate change on runoff became significant, whereas their individual effects were not significant. Only vegetation change decreased runoff in the basin in Idaho.
H. J. Ilja van Meerveld, James W. Kirchner, Marc J. P. Vis, Rick S. Assendelft, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4825–4834, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4825-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4825-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flowing stream networks extend and retract seasonally and in response to precipitation. This affects the distances and thus the time that it takes a water molecule to reach the flowing stream and the stream outlet. When the network is fully extended, the travel times are short, but when the network retracts, the travel times become longer and more uniform. These dynamics should be included when modeling solute or pollutant transport.
Bree Bennett, Mark Thyer, Michael Leonard, Martin Lambert, and Bryson Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4783–4801, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new stochastic rainfall model evaluation framework is introduced, with three key features: (1) streamflow-based, to directly evaluate modelled streamflow performance, (2) virtual, to avoid confounding errors in hydrological models or data, and (3) targeted, to isolate errors according to specific sites/months. The framework identified the importance of rainfall in the
wetting-upmonths for providing reliable predictions of streamflow over the entire year despite their low flow volumes.
Cited articles
Arheimer, B. and Lindström, G.: Implementing the EU Water Framework Directive in Sweden, in: Runoff Predictions in Ungauged Basins – Synthesis across Processes, Places and Scales, edited by: Bloeschl, G., Sivapalan, M., Wagener, T., Viglione, A., and Savenije, H., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 353–359, 2013.
Arheimer, B. and Lindström, G.: Electricity vs Ecosystems – understanding and predicting hydropower impact on Swedish river flow. Evolving Water Resources Systems: Understanding, Predicting and Managing Water–Society Interactions, Proceedings of ICWRS2014, Bologna, Italy, 4–6 June 2014, IAHS Publ. No. 364, 2014.
Arheimer, B., Dahné J., and Donnelly, C.: Climate change impact on riverine nutrient load and land-based remedial measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan, Ambio, 41, 600–612, 2012.
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Willems, P., Olsson, J., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., and Nguyen, V. T. V.: Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review, Water Sci. Technol., 68, 16–28, https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2013.251, 2013.
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., Palutikof, J. (Eds.): Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp., 2008.
Bergstrand, M., Asp, S., and Lindström, G.: Nationwide hydrological statistics for Sweden with high resolution using the hydrological model S-HYPE, Hydrol. Res., 45, 349–356, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2013.010, 2014.
Bergström, S., Andréasson, J., and Graham L. P.: Climate adaptation of the Swedish guidelines for design floods for dams, 24th ICOLD Congress, Kyoto, Japan, 6–8 June 2012, Q94, 2012.
Blöschl, G., Ardoin-Bardin, S., Bonell, M., Dorninger, M., Goodrich, D., Gutknecht, D., Matamoros, D., Merz, B., Shand, P., and Szolgay, J.: At what scales do climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows?, Hydrol. Process., 21, 1241–1247, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6669, 2007.
Bosshard, T. and Olsson, J.: Comparison of the two climate projections in CLEO to a larger ensemble, CLEO report, 20 pp., available at: http://www.cleoresearch.se/publications/cleoreports(last access: 30 January 2015), 2014.
Bosshard, T., Kotlarski, S., Ewen, T., and Schär, C.: Spectral representation of the annual cycle in the climate change signal, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2777–2788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2777-2011, 2011.
Bosshard, T., Carambia, M., Goergen, K., Kotlarski, S. Krahe, P., Zappa, M., and Schar, C.: Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1523–1536, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011533, 2013.
Chen, Z. and Grasby, S. E.: Impact of decadal and century-scale oscillations on hydroclimate trend analyses, J. Hydrol., 365, 122–133, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.031, 2009.
Collins, M., Booth, B. B. B., Harris, G. R., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., and Webb, M. J.: Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change, Clim. Dynam., 27, 127–147, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0, 2006.
Dahné, J., Donnelly, C., and Olsson, J.: Post-processing of climate projections for hydrological impact studies: how well is the reference state preserved? IAHS Publ. no. 359, 2013.
Dankers, R. and Feyen, L.: Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D19105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009719, 2008.
Donnelly, C., Arheimer, B., Bosshard, T., and Pechlivanidis, I.: Uncertainties beyond ensembles and parameters – experiences of impact assessments using the HYPE model at various scales, Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 27–30 May, 2013.
Donnelly, C., Yang, W., and Dahné, J.: River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate, Clim. Change, 122, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0941-y, 2014.
Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M., Brázdil, R., Claps, P., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kriaučiūnien\.e, J., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lang, M., Llasat, M. C., Macdonald, N., McIntyre, N., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Neuhold, C., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R. A. P., Plavcová, L., Rogger, M., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Schär, C., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014.
Hannah, D. M., Demuth, S., Lanen van, H. A. J., Looser, U., Prudhomme, C., Rees, G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Large-scale river flow archives: importance, current status and future needs, Hydrol. Processes, 25, 1191–1200, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7794, 2010.
Hannaford, J., Buys, G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2717–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013, 2013.
Hellström, S. and Lindström, G.: Regional analys av klimat, vattentillgång och höga flöden, SMHI Report Hydrologi No. 110, 2008 (in Swedish).
Hirabayashi, Y., Kanae, S., Emori, S., Oki, T., and Kimoto, M.: Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 754–772, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.4.754, 2008
Huntington, T. G.: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis, J. Hydrol., 319, 83–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.003, 2006
Johansson, B.: Estimation of areal precipitation for hydrological modelling in Sweden, PhD Thesis, Earth Sciences Centre, Dept. Phys. Geog., Göteborg University, Sweden, 2002.
Johns, T. C., Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Johnson, C. E., Jones, A., Lowe, J. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Roberts, D. L., Sexton, D. M. H., Stevenson, D. S., Tett, S. F. B., and Woodage, M. J.: Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 20, 583–612, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0296-y, 2003.
Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G., and Ullerstig, A.: 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Tellus A, 63 ,24–40, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.x, 2011.
Kormann, C., Francke, T., Renner, M., and Bronstert, A.: Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria – an approach based on climate and discharge station data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11, 6881–6922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-6881-2014, 2014.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K. A., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I. A.: Freshwater resources and their management, in: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 173–210, 2007.
Le Coz, J., Renard, B., Bonnifait, L., Branger, F., and Le Boursicaud, R.: Combining hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings in the estimation of hydrometric rating curves: A Bayesian approach, J. Hydrol., 509, 573–587, 2014.
Lehner, B., Döll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., and Kaspar, F.: Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis, Clim. Change, 75, 273–299, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-6338-4, 2006.
Lindström, G. and Alexandersson, H.: Recent mild and wet years in relation to long observation records and climate change in Sweden, Ambio, 33, 183–186, 2004.
Lindström, G. and Bergström, S.: Runoff trends in Sweden 1807–2002, Hydrol. Sci. J., 49, 69–83, 2004.
Lindström, G., Pers, C. P., Rosberg, R., Strömqvist, J., and Arheimer, B.: Development and test of the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) model – A water quality model for different spatial scales, Hydrol. Res., 41, 295–319, 2010.
Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. ., Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., Venema, V. K. C., Chun, K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones, R. G., Onof, C., Vrac, M., and Thiele-Eich, I.: Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000314, 2010.
Markonis, Y. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Climatic Variability Over Time Scales Spanning Nine Orders of Magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch Cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov Dynamics, Surv. Geophys., 34, 181–207, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9208-9, 2012.
Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Uhlemann, S., Delgado, J., and Hundecha, Y.: HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1379–1387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1379-2012, 2012.
Montanari, A.: Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3739–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3739-2012, 2012.
Murphy, J. M., Booth, B., Collins, M., Harris, G., Sexton, D., and Webb, M.: A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 365, 1993–2028, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2077, 2007.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models – Part I: A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E. L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.-H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., and Dadi, Z.: Emission scenarios, A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 599 pp., 2000.
Olsson, J., and Foster, K.: Short-term precipitation extremes in regional climate simulations for Sweden: historical and future changes, Hydrol. Res., 45, 479-489, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2013.206, 2014.
Parajka, J., Kohnová, S., Merz, R., Szolgay, J., Hlavová, K., and Blöschl, G.: Comparative Analysis of the seasonality of hydrological characteristics in Slovakia and Austria, Hydrol. Sci. J., 54, 456–473, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.3.456, 2009.
Petrow, T. and Merz, B.: Trends in flood magnitude, frequency and seasonality in Germany in the period 1951–2002, J. Hydrol., 371, 129–141, 2009.
Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model, J. Climate, 19, 3771–3791, 2006.
Samuelsson, P., Jones, C. G., Willén, U., Ullerstig, A., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jansson, C., Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., and Wyser, K.: The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: Model description and performance, Tellus A, 63, 4–23, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x, 2011.
Schmocker-Fackel, P. and Naef, F.: More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in Switzerland since 1850, J. Hydrol., 381, 1–8, 2010.
Stahl, K., Hisdal, H., Hannaford, J., Tallaksen, L. M., van Lanen, H. A. J., Sauquet, E., Demuth, S., Fendekova, M., and Jódar, J.: Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2367–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010, 2010.
Stahl, K., Tallaksen, L. M., Hannaford, J., and van Lanen, H. A. J.: Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2035–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2035-2012, 2012.
Strömqvist, J., Arheimer, B., Dahné, J., Donnelly, C., and Lindström, G.: Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins – Set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale, Hydrol. Sci. J., 57, 229–247, 2012.
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods, J. Hydrol., 456, 12–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052, 2012.
Tomkins, K. M.: Uncertainty in streamflow rating curves: methods, controls and consequences, Hydrol. Process., 28, 464–481, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9567, 2014.
van Ulden, A. P. and van Oldenborgh, G. J.: Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-863-2006, 2006.
Westerberg, I., Guerrero, J.-L., Seibert, J., Beven, K. J., and Halldin, S.: Stage-discharge uncertainty derived with a non-stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River, Honduras, Hydrol. Process., 25, 603–613, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7848, 2011.
Wilson, D., Hisdal, H., and Lawrence, D.: Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries? – Recent trends and comparisons to hydrological projections, J. Hydrol., 394, 334–346, 2010.
Yang, W., Andréasson, J., Graham, L. P., Olsson, J., Rosberg, J., and Wetterhall, F.: Distribution based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies, Hydrol. Res., 41, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2010.004, 2010.
Yevjevich, V.: Probability and Statistics in Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, 302 pp., 1972.
Yue, S., Kundzewicz, Z. W., and Wang, L.: Detection of changes, in: Changes in Flood Risk in Europe, edited by: Kundzewicz, Z. W., IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK, 387–434, 2012.
Search articles
Download
Short summary
Is the occurrence of floods changing in frequency or magnitude? We have analyzed 100 years of observed time series from 69 gauging sites and high-resolution modeling of climate change impact across Sweden for 140 years. The results indicate no significant trend in high flows in the past but some shifts in flood-generating processes at present and in the future. Rain-generated floods may have a more marked effect, and some specific rivers may be more affected by climate change than others.
Is the occurrence of floods changing in frequency or magnitude? We have analyzed 100 years of...
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
All site content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.