Performance and robustness of probabilistic river forecasts computed with quantile regression based on multiple independent variables

Hoss, F.; Fischbeck, P. S.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3969-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3969-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3969-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 9

Research article

|

25 Sep 2015

Research article |

| 25 Sep 2015

Performance and robustness of probabilistic river forecasts computed with quantile regression based on multiple independent variables

F. Hoss and P. S. Fischbeck

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Final revised paper (published on 25 Sep 2015)
Preprint (discussion started on 14 Oct 2014)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C5580: 'Review of QR forecast paper', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Dec 2014
- AC C6316: 'Letter answering review comments from Reviewer 1', Frauke Hoss, 04 Feb 2015
- AC C6320: 'New version of paper', Frauke Hoss, 04 Feb 2015
- AC C6463: 'New version of paper including TRACK CHANGES', Frauke Hoss, 11 Feb 2015
RC C5902: 'Interesting and worthwhile addition to body of science yet requires some work prior to publication', Jan Verkade, 05 Jan 2015
- AC C6318: 'Letter answering review comments from Reviewer 2', Frauke Hoss, 04 Feb 2015
- AC C6322: 'New version of paper', Frauke Hoss, 04 Feb 2015
- AC C6465: 'New version of paper including TRACK CHANGES', Frauke Hoss, 11 Feb 2015

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (06 Feb 2015) by Albrecht Weerts

AR by Frauke Hoss on behalf of the Authors (12 Feb 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Feb 2015) by Albrecht Weerts

RR by Satish Regonda (25 Apr 2015)

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (17 Jun 2015)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (26 Jun 2015) by Albrecht Weerts

AR by Anna Wenzel on behalf of the Authors (30 Jul 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (27 Aug 2015) by Albrecht Weerts

Short summary

This paper further develops the method of quantile regression (QR) to generate probabilistic river stage forecasts. Besides the forecast itself, this study uses the rate of rise of the river stage in the last 24 and 48h and the forecast error 24 and 48h before as predictors in QR configurations. When compared to just using the forecast as an independent variable, adding the latter four predictors significantly improved the forecasts, as measured by the Brier skill score and the CRPS.