Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 19, issue 9
Articles | Volume 19, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3969-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3969-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 9
Research article
 | 
25 Sep 2015
Research article |  | 25 Sep 2015

Performance and robustness of probabilistic river forecasts computed with quantile regression based on multiple independent variables

F. Hoss and P. S. Fischbeck

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Short summary
This paper further develops the method of quantile regression (QR) to generate probabilistic river stage forecasts. Besides the forecast itself, this study uses the rate of rise of the river stage in the last 24 and 48h and the forecast error 24 and 48h before as predictors in QR configurations. When compared to just using the forecast as an independent variable, adding the latter four predictors significantly improved the forecasts, as measured by the Brier skill score and the CRPS.
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