Articles | Volume 30, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6481-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6481-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 22 Oct 2026
| 22 Oct 2026
Benchmarking convection-permitting climate simulations for hydrometeorological characterizations: a comparative study of WRF-SAAG and observation-based products in Chile
Sofía Segovia-Escafi
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, RM, Santiago, Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, RM, Santiago, Chile
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, RM, Santiago, Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, RM, Santiago, Chile
Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga
Departamento de Obras Civiles, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, RM, Santiago, Chile
Lucía Scaff
Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Concepción, Bio-Bio, Concepción, Chile
Andreas F. Prein
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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Marius Rixen, Praveen K. Pothapakula, Michael Sprenger, Christian Zeman, and Andreas F. Prein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 2065–2086, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2065-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2065-2026, 2026
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Despite steady improvements in forecasting skill, episodes of low forecast skill, called forecast busts, still persist. Using global ensemble simulations at different grid spacings, we show that coarse-grid simulations fail to resolve key mesoscale diabatic processes, and that errors upscale and propagate downstream, leading to large forecast errors. Fine grid spacing simulations better capture scale interactions in strongly diabatic flow, highlighting the potential of kilometer-scale models.
Millie C. Spencer, Alfonso Fernandez, Emma Tyrrell, Robert Clasing, Enrique Muñoz, Pablo A. Mendoza, Jorge Berkhoff, and Noah P. Molotch
The Cryosphere, 20, 5559–5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5559-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5559-2026, 2026
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Mountain glaciers are important freshwater reservoirs. Quantifying their loss is essential for forecasting water availability. While glacier retreat is well studied in many regions, glacier loss on the Nevados de Chillán volcanic complex in south-central Chile remains uncertain. Using satellite and drone images, we find all 28 glaciers on Nevados de Chillán lost volume over the past 7 decades, with melt rates accelerating markedly since 2000.
Andres Barrio-Martin, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Nuria P. Plaza-Martin, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Andreas F. Prein, Tim R. McVicar, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Zhenzhong Zeng, Ana Morata, and Deliang Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5202, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We identified the atmospheric conditions that distinguish ordinary thunderstorms from four severe weather hazards, highlighting numerical proxies for their modelling in the Mediterranean. Severe winds occur in warm, unstable air (summer) or with strong mid-level winds (other seasons); tornadoes are favored by instability near the ground; large hail occurs when instability and strong winds combine; and short-duration heavy precipitation is favored by high moisture and slow-moving thunderstorms.
Jerónimo Sota, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4067, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Despite snowmelt runoff from mountainous domains is a vital water source, river flows months ahead remain difficult to predict. This study tested several ways to improve dynamical forecasts across 21 Andean basins using nearly four decades of past data. Results show that some configurations improve forecasts only at specific times or in certain basins, while others can reduce accuracy. The results can help water managers choose more reliable forecasting tools for decision making.
Samir Pokhrel, Verma Utkarsh, Patita Kalyana Sahoo, Praveen K. Pothapakula, Anusha Sunkisala, Nishant Gautam, Kolady P. Pribin, Shivamurthy Yashas, Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari, Archana Rai, Hasibur Rahaman, Andreas F. Prein, Anurag Dipankar, and Subodh Kumar Saha
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1447–1477, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1447-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1447-2026, 2026
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We studied how well climate models simulate Indian monsoon rainfall at different time scales, from daily cycles to longer variations. We found that models may match seasonal averages but still fail to capture when and how rainfall occurs. These errors differ over land and ocean and affect overall monsoon patterns. Improving how models represent rainfall processes across scales is essential for better prediction.
Andreas F. Prein, Praveen K. Pothapakula, Christian Zeman, Morgane Lalonde, Marius Rixen, Anurag Dipankar, Matthieu Leclair, and Andreas Jocksch
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 5277–5303, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5277-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5277-2026, 2026
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We produce one of the world's most detailed global weather and climate simulations, spanning 4 years and enabling the direct representation of storms rather than approximations. This allows the capture of dangerous events such as strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and powerful tropical and mid-latitude storms everywhere on Earth. Our results show major improvements over traditional climate models, but also reveal remaining challenges in representing large, organized storm systems in the tropics.
Praveen K. Pothapakula, Andreas F. Prein, Anusha Sunkisala, and Anurag Dipankar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 979–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-979-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-979-2026, 2026
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Monsoons provide vital rainfall for billions but are hard to forecast. Using a next-generation climate model, we simulated monsoons at different grid spacings. The model captures key seasonal patterns, but finer grids do not always improve accuracy. They can worsen predictions by overproducing intense rain, as they artificially strengthen weather systems like monsoon lows and waves. Our work shows that smarter model physics is needed for reliable future forecasts and climate projections.
Matías Moreno, Pablo Mendoza, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Alonso Pizarro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2912, 2026
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We developed a new method called SPEAK to better evaluate how well hydrological models reproduce spatial patterns such as evapotranspiration across different regions. We tested it in 99 Chilean catchments with different climates and terrain types. Compared with existing methods, SPEAK more accurately represented spatial patterns and was less affected by map resolution or catchment characteristics. This could help improve water resource modelling and planning across diverse local conditions.
Nicolás A. Vásquez, Pablo A. Mendoza, Wouter Knoben, Martyn Clark, Tricia Stadnyk, and Naoki Mizukami
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1363, 2026
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Although distributed hydrological models are often calibrated using only streamflow data, this practice may provide unrealistic representations of the water cycle. We show that, while streamflow annual cycles can be reasonably simulated, the seasonality of other key variables - such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and snow cover - may be severely misrepresented. Our results highlight the need to assess seasonal patterns of variables beyond streamflow when calibrating hydrological models.
Felipe Matus, Marcia Paredes, Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga, Alex Garcés, Diego Pinto, Germán Aguilar, and Santiago Montserrat
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-18, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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We compiled a detailed catalog of extreme seasonal precipitation events observed in northern Chile during 1979–2019 to better understand how, when, and where these occur. The catalog uses atmospheric data and local meteorological products to identify different types of storms categories occurring in the study area, and the daily meteorological conditions for each event. This information was tested to evaluate landslide occurrence and composite analysis in Chilean arid and semiarid regions.
Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Bailey J. Anderson, Paul C. Astagneau, Daniel L. Swain, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Manuela I. Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 825–848, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026, 2026
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Flood impacts can be enhanced when they occur after droughts, yet the effectiveness of hydrological models in simulating these events remains unclear. Here, we calibrated four conceptual hydrological models across 63 catchments in Chile and Switzerland to assess their ability to detect streamflow extremes and their transitions. We show that drought-to-flood transitions are generally poorly captured, especially in semi-arid high-mountain catchments than in humid low-elevation ones.
Anurag Dipankar, Mauro Bianco, Mona Bukenberger, Till Ehrengruber, Nicoletta Farabullini, Oliver Fuhrer, Abishek Gopal, Daniel Hupp, Andreas Jocksch, Samuel Kellerhals, Clarissa A. Kroll, Xavier Lapillonne, Matthieu Leclair, Magdalena Luz, Christoph Müller, Chia Rui Ong, Carlos Osuna, Praveen Pothapakula, Andreas Prein, Matthias Röthlin, William Sawyer, Christoph Schär, Sebastian Schemm, Giacomo Serafini, Hannes Vogt, Ben Weber, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Nicolas Gruber, and Thomas C. Schulthess
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 713–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-713-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-713-2026, 2026
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Climate models are becoming more detailed and accurate by simulating weather at scales of just a few kilometers. Simulating at km-scale is computationally demanding requiring powerful supercomputers and efficient code. This work presents a refactored dynamical core of a state-of-the-art climate model using a Python-based approach. The refactored code has passed through a sequence of verification and validation demonstrating its usability in performing km-scale global simulations.
Johannes J. Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3559–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3559-2025, 2025
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The 1987 Parraguirre ice–rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris flow, causing the loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event, combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In that year, important snow cover coincided with persistent warm periods in spring. We also put forward upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes involved in this debris flow. Finally, temporary river damming was key for the flow ferocity.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1981–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025, 2025
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Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite the fact that they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what they truly reflect in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and timescales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Diego Araya, Pablo A. Mendoza, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, and James McPhee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, 2023
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Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
Nicolás Cortés-Salazar, Nicolás Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3505–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, 2023
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This paper shows how important river models can be for water resource applications that involve hydrological models and, in particular, parameter calibration. To this end, we conduct numerical experiments in a pilot basin using a combination of hydrologic model simulations obtained from a large sample of parameter sets and different routing methods. We find that routing can affect streamflow simulations, even at monthly time steps; the choice of parameters; and relevant streamflow metrics.
Ulises M. Sepúlveda, Pablo A. Mendoza, Naoki Mizukami, and Andrew J. Newman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3419–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3419-2022, 2022
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This paper characterizes parameter sensitivities across more than 5500 grid cells for a commonly used macroscale hydrological model, including a suite of eight performance metrics and 43 soil, vegetation and snow parameters. The results show that the model is highly overparameterized and, more importantly, help to provide guidance on the most relevant parameters for specific target processes across diverse climatic types.
Sebastian A. Krogh, Lucia Scaff, James W. Kirchner, Beatrice Gordon, Gary Sterle, and Adrian Harpold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3393–3417, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3393-2022, 2022
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We present a new way to detect snowmelt using daily cycles in streamflow driven by solar radiation. Results show that warmer sites have earlier and more intermittent snowmelt than colder sites, and the timing of early snowmelt events is strongly correlated with the timing of streamflow volume. A space-for-time substitution shows greater sensitivity of streamflow timing to climate change in colder rather than in warmer places, which is then contrasted with land surface simulations.
James M. Done, Gary M. Lackmann, and Andreas F. Prein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, 2022
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We know that warm oceans generally favour tropical cyclones (TCs). Less is known about the role of air temperature above the oceans extending into the lower stratosphere. Our global analysis of historical records and computer simulations suggests that TCs strengthen in response to historical temperature change while also being influenced by other environmental factors. Ocean warming drives much of the strengthening, with relatively small contributions from temperature changes aloft.
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Pablo A. Mendoza, Ian McNamara, Hylke E. Beck, Joschka Thurner, Alexandra Nauditt, Lars Ribbe, and Nguyen Xuan Thinh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5805–5837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, 2021
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Most rivers worldwide are ungauged, which hinders the sustainable management of water resources. Regionalisation methods use information from gauged rivers to estimate streamflow over ungauged ones. Through hydrological modelling, we assessed how the selection of precipitation products affects the performance of three regionalisation methods. We found that a precipitation product that provides the best results in hydrological modelling does not necessarily perform the best for regionalisation.
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Short summary
High-resolution climate simulations can improve our understanding of precipitation and temperature patterns in regions with complex terrain. We evaluate a new climate dataset against in-situ observations and assess its potential for hydrological modeling. Our results show that, despite some limitations in dry areas, high-resolution climate models can provide useful daily-scale information for hydrological applications, supporting their use in water resources planning and decision-making.
High-resolution climate simulations can improve our understanding of precipitation and...
