Articles | Volume 29, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 27 Feb 2025
| 27 Feb 2025
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric–hydrological model
Mengjiao Zhang
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Zixi Li, Yan Li, Rui Tong, Peizhe Cheng, Fuqiang Tian, and Yao Zhuang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2193, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Satellite soil moisture is too coarse and ground measurements are too sparse to describe field conditions. Drone microwave sensing helps fill this gap, but mixed signals from vegetation and surface variability reduce accuracy. We combine drone microwave, optical, and thermal data in a Bayesian framework to improve soil moisture estimates and quantify uncertainty. Field tests in China show higher accuracy, lower bias, and highlight small-scale heterogeneity as a key source of uncertainty.
Fuqiang Tian, Murugesu Sivapalan, Sondoss El Sawah, Melissa Haeffner, Anthony Jakeman, Heidi Kreibich, Leyang Liu, Haoyang Lyu, Ana Mijic, Jiale Wang, Jing Wei, and Günter Blöschl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1727, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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This opinion paper shows how sociohydrology can better support water management by moving from understanding systems to guiding action. Drawing on ten years of work in the Panta Rhei initiative, it offers a simple way to compare cases, trace how actions lead to intended and unintended outcomes, and improve monitoring, learning, fairness, and legitimacy in decision-making.
Zhen Cui and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1265, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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This study explores how storm runoff behavior varies across environments and identifies key factors driving these changes. We found that runoff thresholds depend on land state, such as soil moisture and groundwater levels, rather than just rainfall. A new framework is proposed to improve flood predictions and water management by focusing on landscape features, water storage, and flow paths.
Keer Zhang, Zilong Zhao, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 671–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-671-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-671-2026, 2026
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Focusing on Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation (DFAA) under climate change, this study investigates the mitigating role of reservoirs on DFAA in Lancang-Mekong River Basin. The drought-to-flood (DTF) probability is higher than the flood-to-drought (FTD) at all intensities. Reservoirs markedly reduce wet season’s FTD and year-round DTF, effectively shorten DFAA’s monthly span. The reservoir's mitigating effect on the total risk of DFAA is positively correlated with their total storage.
Hongling Zhao, Zilong Zhao, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-537, 2026
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This study quantifies irrigation water pressure and upstream–downstream interactions in the Lancang–Mekong Basin under climate change. Results show increasing irrigation pressure, with dry-season demand reaching 59 % of available water by 2040. Key subregions exhibit a structural shift from internally to externally driven pressures, highlighting spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear dynamics. Findings inform vulnerable components, transboundary responsibility, and differentiated water governance.
Yi Nan, Fuqiang Tian, and Mahmut Tudaji
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4445, 2025
Preprint archived
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This study used a hydrological model to investigate how equifinality affects uncertainty in surface–subsurface runoff partitioning. Results show that substantial uncertainty in subsurface runoff contribution can arise from small differences in performance, and that runoff ratio is an important attribute associated with subsurface runoff and its uncertainty. These findings can provide a priori guidance on the likely magnitude of uncertainty in a given catchment based on its attributes.
Diego Avesani, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5755–5775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5755-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5755-2025, 2025
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Our study explores how different data sources (snow cover, glacier mass balance, and water isotopes) can improve hydrological modeling in large mountain basins. Using a Bayesian framework, we show that isotopes are particularly useful for reducing uncertainty in low-flow conditions, while snow and glacier data help during melt seasons. By addressing equifinality, our approach enhances model reliability, improving water management and streamflow predictions in mountainous regions.
Ruidong Li, Jiapei Liu, Ting Sun, Jian Shao, Fuqiang Tian, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5677–5694, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5677-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5677-2025, 2025
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This work presents a new approach to simulate sewer drainage effects from incomplete information in the context of urban flooding, given missing information like flow directions and nodal depths. Tested in Yinchuan, China, our approach exhibits high accuracy in reproducing flood depths and reliably outperforms existing methods in various rainfall scenarios. Our method offers a reliable tool for cities with limited sewer data to improve flood simulation performance.
Zixi Li and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3294, 2025
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Forests can change the kinetic energy of rain below them. We built a new model that breaks down the canopy into layers, and tracks two types of raindrop: direct splashes and water dripping from leaves. The model was validated through nine rainfall events. The canopy doesn't always reduce the rain's force, and sometimes it increases it, depending on the specific structure of the leaves and branches.
Khosro Morovati, Hongling Zhao, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3472, 2025
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We studied how dams and climate change have altered the flow of the Mekong River and its connection with a large lake in Cambodia. Using long-term data and a a hydrodynamic response-time model, we found that water flow has become more irregular and less synchronized. These changes have shortened the time when water flows into the lake, threatening ecosystems and farming. Our findings help improve early warning systems and guide future river management.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2633–2654, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2633-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2633-2025, 2025
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We assessed the value of high-resolution data and parameter transferability across temporal scales based on seven catchments in northern China. We found that higher-resolution data do not always improve model performance, questioning the need for such data. Model parameters are transferable across different data resolutions but not across computational time steps. It is recommended to utilize a smaller computational time step when building hydrological models even without high-resolution data.
Zhen Cui and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2275–2291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2275-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2275-2025, 2025
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This study investigates stormflow patterns in a forested watershed in north China, highlighting the fact that delayed stormflow is governed by soil water content (SWC) and groundwater level (GWL). When SWC exceeds its storage capacity, excess water infiltrates, recharging groundwater and gradually elevating GWL. Rising GWL enhances subsurface connectivity and lateral flow, synchronizing watershed responses and, in extreme cases, causing a delayed stormflow peak to merge with the direct stormflow peak.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1919–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1919-2025, 2025
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Common intuition holds that higher input data resolution leads to better results. To assess the benefits of high-resolution data, we conduct simulation experiments using data with various temporal resolutions across multiple catchments and find that higher-resolution data do not always improve model performance, challenging the necessity of pursuing such data. In catchments with small areas or significant flow variability, high-resolution data is more valuable.
Khosro Morovati, Keer Zhang, Lidi Shi, Yadu Pokhrel, Maozhou Wu, Paradis Someth, Sarann Ly, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5133–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, 2024
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Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
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Zhen Cui, Fuqiang Tian, Zilong Zhao, Zitong Xu, Yongjie Duan, Jie Wen, and Mohd Yawar Ali Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3613–3632, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3613-2024, 2024
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Yi Nan and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 669–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, 2024
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This paper utilized a tracer-aided model validated by multiple datasets in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau to analyze hydrological sensitivity to climate change. The spatial pattern of the local hydrological sensitivities and the influence factors were analyzed in particular. The main finding of this paper is that the local hydrological sensitivity in mountainous basins is determined by the relationship between the glacier area ratio and the mean annual precipitation.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Fuqiang Tian, Thomas Wild, Mengqi Zhao, Sean Turner, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Chris R. Vernon, Hongchang Hu, Yuan Zhuang, Mohamad Hejazi, and Hong-Yi Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, 2023
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Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
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As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Ruidong Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, and Guang-Heng Ni
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 751–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-751-2023, 2023
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We developed SHAFTS (Simultaneous building Height And FootprinT extraction from Sentinel imagery), a multi-task deep-learning-based Python package, to estimate average building height and footprint from Sentinel imagery. Evaluation in 46 cities worldwide shows that SHAFTS achieves significant improvement over existing machine-learning-based methods.
Yi Nan, Zhihua He, Fuqiang Tian, Zhongwang Wei, and Lide Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4147–4167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4147-2022, 2022
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Tracer-aided hydrological models are useful tool to reduce uncertainty of hydrological modeling in cold basins, but there is little guidance on the sampling strategy for isotope analysis, which is important for large mountainous basins. This study evaluated the reliance of the tracer-aided modeling performance on the availability of isotope data in the Yarlung Tsangpo river basin, and provides implications for collecting water isotope data for running tracer-aided hydrological models.
Yongping Wei, Jing Wei, Gen Li, Shuanglei Wu, David Yu, Mohammad Ghoreishi, You Lu, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2131–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2131-2022, 2022
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There is increasing tension among the riparian countries of transboundary rivers. This article proposes a socio-hydrological framework that incorporates the slow and less visible societal processes into existing hydro-economic models, revealing the slow and hidden feedbacks between societal and hydrological processes. This framework will contribute to process-based understanding of the complex mechanism that drives conflict and cooperation in transboundary river management.
Liying Guo, Jing Wei, Keer Zhang, Jiale Wang, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1165–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1165-2022, 2022
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Data support is crucial for the research of conflict and cooperation on transboundary rivers. Conventional, manual constructions of datasets cannot meet the requirements for fast updates in the big data era. This study brings up a revised methodological framework, based on the conventional method, and a toolkit for the news media dataset tracking of conflict and cooperation dynamics on transboundary rivers. A dataset with good tradeoffs between data relevance and coverage is generated.
Yi Nan, Zhihua He, Fuqiang Tian, Zhongwang Wei, and Lide Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6151–6172, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6151-2021, 2021
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Hydrological modeling has large problems of uncertainty in cold regions. Tracer-aided hydrological models are increasingly used to reduce uncertainty and refine the parameterizations of hydrological processes, with limited application in large basins due to the unavailability of spatially distributed precipitation isotopes. This study explored the utility of isotopic general circulation models in driving a tracer-aided hydrological model in a large basin on the Tibetan Plateau.
Kunbiao Li, Fuqiang Tian, Mohd Yawar Ali Khan, Ran Xu, Zhihua He, Long Yang, Hui Lu, and Yingzhao Ma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5455–5467, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5455-2021, 2021
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Due to complex climate and topography, there is still a lack of a high-quality rainfall dataset for hydrological modeling over the Tibetan Plateau. This study aims to establish a high-accuracy daily rainfall product over the southern Tibetan Plateau through merging satellite rainfall estimates based on a high-density rainfall gauge network. Statistical and hydrological evaluation indicated that the new dataset outperforms the raw satellite estimates and several other products of similar types.
Yi Nan, Lide Tian, Zhihua He, Fuqiang Tian, and Lili Shao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3653–3673, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3653-2021, 2021
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This study integrated a water isotope module into the hydrological model THREW. The isotope-aided model was subsequently applied for process understanding in the glacierized watershed of Karuxung river on the Tibetan Plateau. The model was used to quantify the contribution of runoff component and estimate the water travel time in the catchment. Model uncertainties were significantly constrained by using additional isotopic data, improving the process understanding in the catchment.
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Short summary
Owing to differences in the existing published results, we conducted a detailed analysis of the runoff components and future trends in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and found that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow (both ~5 %) are limited and much lower than previous results. The streamflow in this area will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution of glacier melt could lead to an underestimation of this increasing trend.
Owing to differences in the existing published results, we conducted a detailed analysis of the...
