Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological  modelling and regional climate projections

Griffin, Adam; Kay, Alison L.; Sayers, Paul; Bell, Victoria; Stewart, Elizabeth; Carr, Sam

doi:10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024

Articles | Volume 28, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 28, issue 12

Research article

|

20 Jun 2024

Research article |

| 20 Jun 2024

Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections

Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr

Related authors

Improved seasonal hydrological forecasting for Great Britain

Mark D. Rhodes-Smith, Victoria A. Bell, Nicky Stringer, Helen Baron, Helen Davies, and Jeff Knight

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2506,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2506, 2025

Short summary

Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England

Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024

Short summary

Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels

Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024

Short summary

Hydro-PE: gridded datasets of historical and future Penman–Monteith potential evaporation for the United Kingdom

Emma L. Robinson, Matthew J. Brown, Alison L. Kay, Rosanna A. Lane, Rhian Chapman, Victoria A. Bell, and Eleanor M. Blyth

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4433–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023, 2023

Short summary

The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates

Alison L. Kay, Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Rosanna A. Lane, and Alison C. Rudd

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2533–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2533-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2533-2023, 2023

Short summary

The enhanced future Flows and Groundwater dataset: development and evaluation of nationally consistent hydrological projections based on UKCP18

Jamie Hannaford, Jonathan D. Mackay, Matthew Ascott, Victoria A. Bell, Thomas Chitson, Steven Cole, Christian Counsell, Mason Durant, Christopher R. Jackson, Alison L. Kay, Rosanna A. Lane, Majdi Mansour, Robert Moore, Simon Parry, Alison C. Rudd, Michael Simpson, Katie Facer-Childs, Stephen Turner, John R. Wallbank, Steven Wells, and Amy Wilcox

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2391–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023, 2023

Short summary

Cited articles

Barker, L., Hannaford, J., Muchan, K., Turner, S., and Parry, S.: The winter 2015/2016 floods in the UK – a hydrological appraisal, Weather, 71, 324–333, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2822, 2016.

Bell, V. A., Kay, A. L., Jones, R. G., Moore, R. J., and Reynard, N. S.: Use of soil data in a grid-based hydrological model to estimate spatial variation in changing flood risk across the UK, J. Hydrol., 377, 335–350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.031, 2009.

Bell, V. A., Kay, A. L., Cole, S. J., Jones, R. G., Moore, R. J., and Reynard, N. S.: How might climate change affect river flows across the Thames basin? An area-wide analysis using the UKCP09 regional climate model ensemble, J. Hydrol., 442, 89–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.001, 2012.

Berghuijs, W. R., Harrigan, S., Molnar, P., Slater, L. J., and Kirchner, J. W.: The Relative Importance of Different Flood-Generating Mechanisms Across Europe, Water Resour. Res., 55, 4582–4593, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024841, 2019.

Bevacqua, E., Shepherd, T. G., Watson, P. A. G., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D., and Mitchell, D.: Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091990, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091990, 2021.