Articles | Volume 28, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 02 Apr 2024
| 02 Apr 2024
Mangroves as nature-based mitigation for ENSO-driven compound flood risks in a large river delta
Ignace Pelckmans
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Biology, ECOSPHERE, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
Jean-Philippe Belliard
Department of Biology, ECOSPHERE, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
OD Nature, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium
Olivier Gourgue
Department of Biology, ECOSPHERE, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
OD Nature, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium
Luis Elvin Dominguez-Granda
Centro del Agua y Desarrollo Sostenible, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral (ESPOL), Faculdad de Ciencias Naturales y Matematicas, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Stijn Temmerman
Department of Biology, ECOSPHERE, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
Related authors
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
Mona Huyzentruyt, Maarten Wens, Gregory Scott Fivash, David C. Walters, Steven Bouillon, Joell A. Carr, Glenn C. Guntenspergen, Matthew L. Kirwan, and Stijn Temmerman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3293, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetated environments from forests to peatlands store carbon in the soil, which mitigates climate change. But which environment does this best? In this study, we show how the levees of tidal marshes are one of the most effective carbon sequestering environments in the world. This is because soil water-logging and high salinity inhibits carbon degradation while the levee fosters fast vegetation growth, complimented also by the preferential settlement of carbon-rich sediments on the marsh levee.
Lauranne Alaerts, Jonathan Lambrechts, Ny Riana Randresihaja, Luc Vandenbulcke, Olivier Gourgue, Emmanuel Hanert, and Marilaure Grégoire
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3125–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3125-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3125-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We created the first comprehensive, high-resolution, and easily accessible bathymetry dataset for the three main branches of the Danube Delta. By combining four data sources, we obtained a detailed representation of the riverbed, with resolutions ranging from 2 to 100 m. This dataset will support future studies on water and nutrient exchanges between the Danube and the Black Sea and provide insights into the delta's buffer role within the understudied Danube–Black Sea continuum.
Lennert Schepers, Mona Huyzentruyt, Matthew L. Kirwan, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, and Stijn Temmerman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2362, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In some tidal marshes, vegetation can convert to ponds as a result of sea level rise. We investigated to what extent this is related to decreasing strength of the marsh soil in relation to sea level rise. We found a reduction of marsh soil strength in areas with more inundation by sea water and more ponding, which results in easier erosion of the marsh and thus further expansion of ponds. This decrease in marsh soil strength is highly related to lower content of roots in the soil.
Ny Riana Randresihaja, Olivier Gourgue, Lauranne Alaerts, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan Lambrechts, Miguel De Le Court, Marilaure Grégoire, and Emmanuel Hanert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas face rising flood threats as storms intensifies with climate change. With an advanced model of the Scheldt Estuary-North Sea, we studied how detailed atmospheric data must be to predict storm surge peaks in estuaries. We found that high-resolution atmospheric data gives the best results, and coarser data with same resolution as current global climate models give poorer results. We show that investing in localized, high-resolution atmospheric data can significantly improve results.
Sarah Hautekiet, Jan-Eike Rossius, Olivier Gourgue, Maarten Kleinhans, and Stijn Temmerman
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-601-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined how vegetation growing in marshes affects the formation of tidal channel networks. Experiments were conducted to imitate marsh development, both with and without vegetation. The results show interdependency between biotic and abiotic factors in channel development. They mainly play a role when the landscape changes from bare to vegetated. Overall, the study suggests that abiotic factors are more important near the sea, while vegetation plays a larger role closer to the land.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
Olivier Gourgue, Jim van Belzen, Christian Schwarz, Wouter Vandenbruwaene, Joris Vanlede, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Sergio Fagherazzi, Tjeerd J. Bouma, Johan van de Koppel, and Stijn Temmerman
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 531–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-531-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is an increasing demand for tidal-marsh restoration around the world. We have developed a new modeling approach to reduce the uncertainty associated with this development. Its application to a real tidal-marsh restoration project in northwestern Europe illustrates how the rate of landscape development can be steered by restoration design, with important consequences for restored tidal-marsh resilience to increasing sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply.
Rey Harvey Suello, Simon Lucas Hernandez, Steven Bouillon, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis Dominguez-Granda, Marijn Van de Broek, Andrea Mishell Rosado Moncayo, John Ramos Veliz, Karem Pollette Ramirez, Gerard Govers, and Stijn Temmerman
Biogeosciences, 19, 1571–1585, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1571-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research shows indications that the age of the mangrove forest and its position along a deltaic gradient (upstream–downstream) play a vital role in the amount and sources of carbon stored in the mangrove sediments. Our findings also imply that carbon capture by the mangrove ecosystem itself contributes partly but relatively little to long-term sediment organic carbon storage. This finding is particularly relevant for budgeting the potential of mangrove ecosystems to mitigate climate change.
Florian Lauryssen, Philippe Crombé, Tom Maris, Elliot Van Maldegem, Marijn Van de Broek, Stijn Temmerman, and Erik Smolders
Biogeosciences, 19, 763–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-763-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Surface waters in lowland regions have a poor surface water quality, mainly due to excess nutrients like phosphate. Therefore, we wanted to know the phosphate levels without humans, also called the pre-industrial background. Phosphate binds strongly to sediment particles, suspended in the river water. In this research we used sediments deposited by a river as an archive for surface water phosphate back to 1800 CE. Pre-industrial phosphate levels were estimated at one-third of the modern levels.
Zhan Hu, Pim W. J. M. Willemsen, Bas W. Borsje, Chen Wang, Heng Wang, Daphne van der Wal, Zhenchang Zhu, Bas Oteman, Vincent Vuik, Ben Evans, Iris Möller, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Alexander Van Braeckel, Stijn Temmerman, and Tjeerd J. Bouma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 405–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-405-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Erosion and accretion processes govern the ecogeomorphic evolution of intertidal (salt marsh and tidal flat) ecosystems and hence substantially affect their valuable ecosystem services. By applying a novel sensor, we obtained unique high-resolution daily bed-level change datasets from 10 marsh–mudflat sites in northwestern Europe. This dataset has revealed diverse spatial bed-level change patterns over daily to seasonal scales, which are valuable to theoretical and model development.
Chen Wang, Lennert Schepers, Matthew L. Kirwan, Enrica Belluco, Andrea D'Alpaos, Qiao Wang, Shoujing Yin, and Stijn Temmerman
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-71-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal marshes are valuable natural habitats with normally dense vegetation. The presence of bare patches is a symptom of habitat degradation. We found that the occurrence of bare patches and regrowth of vegetation is related to spatial variations in soil surface elevation and to the distance and connectivity to tidal creeks. These relations are similar in three marshes at very different geographical locations. Our results may help nature managers to conserve and restore coastal marshes.
Cited articles
Allen, J. I., Somerfield, P. J., and Gilbert, F. J.: Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models, J. Mar. Syst., 64, 3–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.02.010, 2007.
Baptist, M. J., Babovic, V., Uthurburu, J. R., Keijzer, M., Uittenbogaard, R. E., Mynett, A., and Verwey, A.: On inducing equations for vegetation resistance, J. Hydraul. Res., 45, 435–450, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2007.9521778, 2007.
Barnard, P. L., Short, A. D., Harley, M. D., Splinter, K. D., Vitousek, S., Turner, I. L., Allan, J., Banno, M., Bryan, K. R., Doria, A., Hansen, J. E., Kato, S., Kuriyama, Y., Randall-Goodwin, E., Ruggiero, P., Walker, I. J., and Heathfield, D. K.: Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Nat. Geosci., 8, 801–807, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2539, 2015.
Belliard, J.-P., Dominguez-Granda, L. E., Ramos-Veliz, J. A., Rosado-Moncayo, A. M., Nath, J., Govers, G., Gourgue, O., and Temmerman, S.: El Niño driven extreme sea levels in an Eastern Pacific tropical river delta: Landward amplification and shift from oceanic to fluvial forcing, Global Planet. Change, 203, 103529, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103529, 2021.
Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Vrac, M., Mentaschi, L., and Widmann, M.: Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change, Sci. Adv., 5, eaaw5531, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531, 2019.
Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Zappa, G., Hodges, K., Shepherd, T. G., Maraun, D., Mentaschi, L., and Feyen, L.: More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 47, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00044-z, 2020.
Bunting, P., Rosenqvist, A., Lucas, R. M., Rebelo, L.-M., Hilarides, L., Thomas, N., Hardy, A., Itoh, T., Shimada, M., and Finlayson, C. M.: The Global Mangrove Watch–A New 2010 Global Baseline of Mangrove Extent, Remote Sens., 10, 1669, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10101669, 2018.
Cai, W., Ng, B., Wang, G., Santoso, A., Wu, L., and Yang, K.: Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 228–231, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z, 2022.
Cao, Y., Zhang, W., Zhu, Y., Ji, X., Xu, Y., Wu, Y., and Hoitink, A. J. F.: Impact of trends in river discharge and ocean tides on water level dynamics in the Pearl River Delta, Coast Eng., 157, 103634, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103634, 2020.
Cassalho, F., Miesse, T. W., de Lima, A. S., Khalid, A., Ferreira, C. M., and Sutton-Grier, A. E.: Coastal Wetlands Exposure to Storm Surge and Waves in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System during Extreme Events, Wetlands, 41, 49, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-021-01443-4, 2021.
Chang, Y.-T., Du, L., Zhang, S.-W., and Huang, P.-F.: Sea level variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean during two types of recent El Niño events, Global Planet. Change, 108, 119–127, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.001, 2013.
Colas, F., Capet, X., McWilliams, J. C., and Shchepetkin, A.: 1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study, Prog. Oceanogr., 79, 138–155, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2008.10.015, 2008.
Couasnon, A., Eilander, D., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Haigh, I. D., Wahl, T., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020.
Dominicis, M. D., Wolf, J., Hespen, R. van, Zheng, P., and Hu, Z.: Mangrove forests can be an effective coastal defence in the Pearl River Delta, China, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00672-7, 2023.
Duke, N. C., Kovacs, J. M., Griffiths, A. D., Preece, L., Hill, D. J. E., Oosterzee, P. van, Mackenzie, J., Morning, H. S., and Burrows, D.: Large-scale dieback of mangroves in Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria: a severe ecosystem response, coincidental with an unusually extreme weather event, Mar. Freshw. Res., 68, 1816, https://doi.org/10.1071/mf16322, 2017.
Dykstra, S. L. and Dzwonkowski, B.: The Propagation of Fluvial Flood Waves Through a Backwater-Estuarine Environment, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr025743, 2020.
Dykstra, S. L. and Dzwonkowski, B.: The Role of Intensifying Precipitation on Coastal River Flooding and Compound River-Storm Surge Events, Northeast Gulf of Mexico, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR029363, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr029363, 2021.
Egbert, G. D. and Erofeeva, S. Y.: Efficient Inverse Modeling of Barotropic Ocean Tides, J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 19, 183–204, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0183:EIMOBO>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Fang, J., Wahl, T., Fang, J., Sun, X., Kong, F., and Liu, M.: Compound flood potential from storm surge and heavy precipitation in coastal China: dependence, drivers, and impacts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4403–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, 2021.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, Chapter 9 to IPCC Climate Change 2021, The Physical Science Basis, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021.
Frappart, F., Bourrel, L., Brodu, N., Salazar, X. R., Baup, F., Darrozes, J., and Pombosa, R.: Monitoring of the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of the Floods in the Guayas Watershed (Ecuadorian Pacific Coast) Using Global Monitoring ENVISAT ASAR Images and Rainfall Data, Water-Sui, 9, 12, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9010012, 2017.
Gijsman, R., Horstman, E. M., Wal, D. van der, Friess, D. A., Swales, A., and Wijnberg, K. M.: Nature-Based Engineering: A Review on Reducing Coastal Flood Risk With Mangroves, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 702412, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.702412, 2021.
Goldberg, L., Lagomasino, D., Thomas, N., and Fatoyinbo, T.: Global declines in human-driven mangrove loss, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 5844–5855, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15275, 2020.
Gori, A., Lin, N., and Smith, J.: Assessing Compound Flooding From Landfalling Tropical Cyclones on the North Carolina Coast, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr026788, 2020.
Gori, A., Lin, N., Xi, D., and Emanuel, K.: Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 171–178, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01272-7, 2022.
Haddad, J., Lawler, S., and Ferreira, C. M.: Assessing the relevance of wetlands for storm surge protection: a coupled hydrodynamic and geospatial framework, Nat. Hazards, 80, 839–861, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2000-7, 2016.
Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., and Corfee-Morlot, J.: Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 802–806, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1979, 2013.
Hamilton, S. E.: Mangroves and Aquaculture: A Five Decade Remote Sensing Analysis of Ecuador's Estuarine Environments, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22240-6, 2019.
Hamlington, B. D., Cheon, S. H., Thompson, P. R., Merrifield, M. A., Nerem, R. S., Leben, R. R., and Kim, K.-Y.: An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 5084–5097, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc011815, 2016.
Harrison, L. M., Coulthard, T. J., Robins, P. E., and Lewis, M. J.: Sensitivity of Estuaries to Compound Flooding, Estuar. Coast., 45, 1250–1269, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-021-00996-1, 2022.
Hendry, A., Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R. J., Winter, H., Neal, R., Wahl, T., Joly-Laugel, A., and Darby, S. E.: Assessing the characteristics and drivers of compound flooding events around the UK coast, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019.
Hengl, T. and Parente, L.: Monthly precipitation in mm at 1 km resolution (multisource average) based on SM2RAIN-ASCAT 2007–2021, CHELSA Climate and WorldClim, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6458580, 2022.
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.: Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3292–3297, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222469111, 2014.
Horstman, E. M., Dohmen-Janssen, C. M., and Hulscher, S. J. M. H.: Flow routing in mangrove forests: A field study in Trang province, Thailand, Cont. Shelf Res., 71, 52–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.10.002, 2013.
Horstman, E. M., Dohmen-Janssen, C. M., Bouma, T. J., and Hulscher, S. J. M. H.: Tidal-scale flow routing and sedimentation in mangrove forests: Combining field data and numerical modelling, Geomorphology, 228, 244–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.08.011, 2015.
Horstman, E. M., Bryan, K. R., and Mullarney, J. C.: Drag variations, tidal asymmetry and tidal range changes in a mangrove creek system, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 46, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5124, 2021.
Hu, K., Chen, Q., and Wang, H.: A numerical study of vegetation impact on reducing storm surge by wetlands in a semi-enclosed estuary, Coast. Eng., 95, 66–76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.09.008, 2015.
Jane, R. A., Malagón-Santos, V., Rashid, M. M., Doebele, L., Wahl, T., Timmers, S. R., Serafin, K. A., Schmied, L., and Lindemer, C.: A Hybrid Framework for Rapidly Locating Transition Zones: A Comparison of Event- and Response-Based Return Water Levels in the Suwannee River FL, Water Resour. Res., 58, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022wr032481, 2022.
Kumbier, K., Carvalho, R. C., Vafeidis, A. T., and Woodroffe, C. D.: Investigating compound flooding in an estuary using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study from the Shoalhaven River, Australia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 463–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-463-2018, 2018.
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P., Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J. C., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zhou, T.: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information, IPCC Chapter 4 from Climate Change 2021-The Physical Science Basis, 553–672, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2021.
Lovelock, C. E., Cahoon, D. R., Friess, D. A., Guntenspergen, G. R., Krauss, K. W., Reef, R., Rogers, K., Saunders, M. L., Sidik, F., Swales, A., Saintilan, N., Thuyen, L. X., and Triet, T.: The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise, Nature, 526, 559–563, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15538, 2015.
Lovelock, C. E., Feller, I. C., Reef, R., Hickey, S., and Ball, M. C.: Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 1680, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01927-6, 2017.
Mazda, Y., Wolanski, E., King, B., Sase, A., Ohtsuka, D., and Magi, M.: Drag force due to vegetation in mangrove swamps, Mangroves and Salt Marshes, 1, 193–199, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1009949411068, 1997.
Mazda, Y., Kobashi, D., and Okada, S.: Tidal-Scale Hydrodynamics within Mangrove Swamps, Wetl. Ecol. Manag., 13, 647–655, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-005-0613-4, 2005.
McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., and Glantz, M. H.: ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science, Science, 314, 1740–1745, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132588, 2006.
Montgomery, J. M., Bryan, K. R., Mullarney, J. C., and Horstman, E. M.: Attenuation of Storm Surges by Coastal Mangroves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2680–2689, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081636, 2019.
Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels, Nat. Commun., 7, 11969, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969, 2016.
Narayan, S., Beck, M. W., Reguero, B. G., Losada, I. J., Wesenbeeck, B. van, Pontee, N., Sanchirico, J. N., Ingram, J. C., Lange, G.-M., and Burks-Copes, K. A.: The Effectiveness, Costs and Coastal Protection Benefits of Natural and Nature-Based Defences, Plos One, 11, e0154735, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0154735, 2016.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nerem, R. S., Chambers, D. P., Leuliette, E. W., Mitchum, G. T., and Giese, B. S.: Variations in global mean sea level associated with the 1997–1998 ENSO event: Implications for measuring long term sea level change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 3005–3008, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999gl002311, 1999.
Olbert, A. I., Nash, S., Cunnane, C., and Hartnett, M.: Tide–surge interactions and their effects on total sea levels in Irish coastal waters, Ocean Dynam., 63, 599–614, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0618-0, 2013.
Olbert, A. I., Comer, J., Nash, S., and Hartnett, M.: High-resolution multi-scale modelling of coastal flooding due to tides, storm surges and rivers inflows. A Cork City example, Coast Eng., 121, 278–296, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.12.006, 2017.
Pelckmans, I., Belliard, J.-P., Dominguez-Granda, L. E., Slobbe, C., Temmerman, S., and Gourgue, O.: Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023.
Pelckmans, I., Gourgue, O., Belliard, J.-P., Dominguez-Granda, L. E., and Temmerman, S.: Mangroves as nature-based mitigation for ENSO-driven compound flood risks in a large river delta: supporting data – high water levels, In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10808968, 2024.
Reguero, B. G., Losada, I. J., Díaz-Simal, P., Méndez, F. J., and Beck, M. W.: Effects of Climate Change on Exposure to Coastal Flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean, Plos One, 10, e0133409, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133409, 2015.
Richards, D. R., Thompson, B. S., and Wijedasa, L.: Quantifying net loss of global mangrove carbon stocks from 20 years of land cover change, Nat. Commun., 11, 4260, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18118-z, 2020.
Robins, P. E., Lewis, M. J., Freer, J., Cooper, D. M., Skinner, C. J., and Coulthard, T. J.: Improving estuary models by reducing uncertainties associated with river flows, Estuar. Coast Shelf Sci., 207, 63–73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2018.02.015, 2018.
Rollenbeck, R., Orellana-Alvear, J., Bendix, J., Rodriguez, R., Pucha-Cofrep, F., Guallpa, M., Fries, A., and Célleri, R.: The Coastal El Niño Event of 2017 in Ecuador and Peru: A Weather Radar Analysis, Remote Sens.-Basel, 14, 824, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14040824, 2022.
Sampurno, J., Vallaeys, V., Ardianto, R., and Hanert, E.: Modeling interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharges in the Kapuas River delta, Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022.
Sippo, J. Z., Lovelock, C. E., Santos, I. R., Sanders, C. J., and Maher, D. T.: Mangrove mortality in a changing climate: An overview, Estuar. Coast Shelf Sci., 215, 241–249, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2018.10.011, 2018.
Smolders, S., Plancke, Y., Ides, S., Meire, P., and Temmerman, S.: Role of intertidal wetlands for tidal and storm tide attenuation along a confined estuary: a model study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1659–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1659-2015, 2015.
Stark, J., Oyen, T., Meire, P., and Temmerman, S.: Observations of tidal and storm surge attenuation in a large tidal marsh, Limnol. Oceanogr., 60, 1371–1381, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10104, 2015.
Su, J., Friess, D. A., and Gasparatos, A.: A meta-analysis of the ecological and economic outcomes of mangrove restoration, Nat. Commun., 12, 5050, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25349-1, 2021.
Takahashi, K.: The atmospheric circulation associated with extreme rainfall events in Piura, Peru, during the 1997–1998 and 2002 El Niño events, Ann. Geophys., 22, 3917–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-3917-2004, 2004.
Tebaldi, C., Ranasinghe, R., Vousdoukas, M., Rasmussen, D. J., Vega-Westhoff, B., Kirezci, E., Kopp, R. E., Sriver, R., and Mentaschi, L.: Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 746–751, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1, 2021.
Temmerman, S., Meire, P., Bouma, T. J., Herman, P. M. J., Ysebaert, T., and Vriend, H. J. D.: Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change, Nature, 504, 79–83, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12859, 2013.
Temmerman, S., Horstman, E. M., Krauss, K. W., Mullarney, J. C., Pelckmans, I., and Schoutens, K.: Marshes and Mangroves as Nature-Based Coastal Storm Buffers, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 15, 95–118, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-040422-092951, 2023.
Thomas, N., Lucas, R., Bunting, P., Hardy, A., Rosenqvist, A., and Simard, M.: Distribution and drivers of global mangrove forest change, 1996–2010, Plos One, 12, e0179302, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0179302, 2017.
Timmermann, A., An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., Jin, F.-F., Cai, W., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K. M., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Stein, K., Wittenberg, A. T., Yun, K.-S., Bayr, T., Chen, H.-C., Chikamoto, Y., Dewitte, B., Dommenget, D., Grothe, P., Guilyardi, E., Ham, Y.-G., Hayashi, M., Ineson, S., Kang, D., Kim, S., Kim, W., Lee, J.-Y., Li, T., Luo, J.-J., McGregor, S., Planton, Y., Power, S., Rashid, H., Ren, H.-L., Santoso, A., Takahashi, K., Todd, A., Wang, G., Wang, G., Xie, R., Yang, W.-H., Yeh, S.-W., Yoon, J., Zeller, E., and Zhang, X.: El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity, Nature, 559, 535–545, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6, 2018.
Tobar, V. and Wyseure, G.: Seasonal rainfall patterns classification, relationship to ENSO and rainfall trends in Ecuador, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1808–1819, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5297, 2018.
van Rijn, L. C.: Analytical and numerical analysis of tides and salinities in estuaries; part I: tidal wave propagation in convergent estuaries, Ocean Dynam., 61, 1719–1741, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-011-0453-0, 2011.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L. P., and Feyen, L.: Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard, Nat. Commun., 9, 2360, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w, 2018.
Wahl, T., Jain, S., Bender, J., Meyers, S. D., and Luther, M. E.: Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 1093–1097, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2736, 2015.
Widlansky, M. J., Timmermann, A., and Cai, W.: Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific, Sci. Adv., 1, e1500560, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500560, 2015.
Wu, W., Westra, S., and Leonard, M.: Estimating the probability of compound floods in estuarine regions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2821–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2821-2021, 2021.
Zheng, F., Westra, S., and Sisson, S. A.: Quantifying the dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone, J. Hydrol., 505, 172–187, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.09.054, 2013.
Short summary
The combination of extreme sea levels with increased river flow typically can lead to so-called compound floods. Often these are caused by storms (< 1 d), but climatic events such as El Niño could trigger compound floods over a period of months. We show that the combination of increased sea level and river discharge causes extreme water levels to amplify upstream. Mangrove forests, however, can act as a nature-based flood protection by lowering the extreme water levels coming from the sea.
The combination of extreme sea levels with increased river flow typically can lead to so-called...
