Articles | Volume 27, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 14 Dec 2023
| 14 Dec 2023
Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling
Diego Araya
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Eduardo Muñoz-Castro
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
James McPhee
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Related authors
No articles found.
Nicolás Cortés-Salazar, Nicolás Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3505–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows how important river models can be for water resource applications that involve hydrological models and, in particular, parameter calibration. To this end, we conduct numerical experiments in a pilot basin using a combination of hydrologic model simulations obtained from a large sample of parameter sets and different routing methods. We find that routing can affect streamflow simulations, even at monthly time steps; the choice of parameters; and relevant streamflow metrics.
Ulises M. Sepúlveda, Pablo A. Mendoza, Naoki Mizukami, and Andrew J. Newman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3419–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper characterizes parameter sensitivities across more than 5500 grid cells for a commonly used macroscale hydrological model, including a suite of eight performance metrics and 43 soil, vegetation and snow parameters. The results show that the model is highly overparameterized and, more importantly, help to provide guidance on the most relevant parameters for specific target processes across diverse climatic types.
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Pablo A. Mendoza, Ian McNamara, Hylke E. Beck, Joschka Thurner, Alexandra Nauditt, Lars Ribbe, and Nguyen Xuan Thinh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5805–5837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Most rivers worldwide are ungauged, which hinders the sustainable management of water resources. Regionalisation methods use information from gauged rivers to estimate streamflow over ungauged ones. Through hydrological modelling, we assessed how the selection of precipitation products affects the performance of three regionalisation methods. We found that a precipitation product that provides the best results in hydrological modelling does not necessarily perform the best for regionalisation.
Gerardo Zegers, Pablo A. Mendoza, Alex Garces, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1919–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of a numerical debris flow model and examine the effects of using post-event measurements on two creeks in Chile. Our results demonstrate the utility of sensitivity analysis in debris flow modeling and the benefits of post-event observations on parameter identifiability. This study provides guidance on the choice of uncertain parameters, contributing to more reliable simulations for debris flow risk assessments and land use planning.
Álvaro Ayala, David Farías-Barahona, Matthias Huss, Francesca Pellicciotti, James McPhee, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 14, 2005–2027, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct past glacier changes (1955–2016) and estimate the committed ice loss in the Maipo River basin (semi-arid Andes of Chile), with a focus on glacier runoff. We found that glacier volume has decreased by one-fifth since 1955 and that glacier runoff shows a sequence of decreasing maxima starting in a severe drought in 1968. As meltwater originating from the Andes plays a key role in this dry region, our results can be useful for developing adaptation or mitigation strategies.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Pablo A. Mendoza, Juan Pablo Boisier, Nans Addor, Mauricio Galleguillos, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Antonio Lara, Cristóbal Puelma, Gonzalo Cortes, Rene Garreaud, James McPhee, and Alvaro Ayala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
CAMELS-CL provides a catchment dataset in Chile, including 516 catchment boundaries, hydro-meteorological time series, and 70 catchment attributes quantifying catchments' climatic, hydrological, topographic, geological, land cover and anthropic intervention features. By using CAMELS-CL, we characterise hydro-climatic regional variations, assess precipitation and potential evapotranspiration uncertainties, and analyse human intervention impacts on catchment response.
Sanjib Sharma, Ridwan Siddique, Seann Reed, Peter Ahnert, Pablo Mendoza, and Alfonso Mejia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1831–1849, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1831-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the relative roles of statistical weather preprocessing and streamflow postprocessing in hydrological ensemble forecasting at short- to medium-range forecast lead times (day 1–7). For this purpose, we develop and implement a regional hydrologic ensemble prediction system (RHEPS). Overall analysis shows that implementing both preprocessing and postprocessing ensures the most skill improvements, but postprocessing alone can often be a competitive alternative.
Pablo A. Mendoza, Andrew W. Wood, Elizabeth Clark, Eric Rothwell, Martyn P. Clark, Bart Nijssen, Levi D. Brekke, and Jeffrey R. Arnold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3915–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water supply forecasts are critical to support water resources operations and planning. The skill of such forecasts depends on our knowledge of (i) future meteorological conditions and (ii) the amount of water stored in a basin. We address this problem by testing several approaches that make use of these sources of predictability, either separately or in a combined fashion. The main goal is to understand the marginal benefits of both information and methodological complexity in forecast skill.
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Technical note: Testing the connection between hillslope-scale runoff fluctuations and streamflow hydrographs at the outlet of large river basins
Empirical stream thermal sensitivity cluster on the landscape according to geology and climate
Deep learning for monthly rainfall–runoff modelling: a large-sample comparison with conceptual models across Australia
On optimization of calibrations of a distributed hydrological model with spatially distributed information on snow
Toward interpretable LSTM-based modeling of hydrological systems
Flow intermittence prediction using a hybrid hydrological modelling approach: influence of observed intermittence data on the training of a random forest model
What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?
Seasonal prediction of end-of-dry-season watershed behavior in a highly interconnected alluvial watershed in northern California
Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau
Leveraging gauge networks and strategic discharge measurements to aid the development of continuous streamflow records
On the need for physical constraints in deep learning rainfall–runoff projections under climate change: a sensitivity analysis to warming and shifts in potential evapotranspiration
Evaluation of hydrological models on small mountainous catchments: impact of the meteorological forcings
Projecting sediment export from two highly glacierized alpine catchments under climate change: exploring non-parametric regression as an analysis tool
A framework for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis for holistic hydrologic modeling using SWAT+
On understanding mountainous carbonate basins of the Mediterranean using parsimonious modeling solutions
Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations
Recent ground thermo-hydrological changes in a southern Tibetan endorheic catchment and implications for lake level changes
Modelling flood frequency and magnitude in a glacially conditioned, heterogeneous landscape: testing the importance of land cover and land use
Enhancing LSTM-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach
Direct integration of reservoirs' operations in a hydrological model for streamflow estimation: coupling a CLSTM model with MOHID-Land
Modelling the regional sensitivity of snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation to climate over the Canadian Prairies using a basin classification approach
To what extent does river routing matter in hydrological modeling?
Calibrating macroscale hydrological models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins
An advanced tool integrating failure and sensitivity analysis into novel modeling of the stormwater flood volume
airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R
Stable water isotopes and tritium tracers tell the same tale: no evidence for underestimation of catchment transit times inferred by stable isotopes in StorAge Selection (SAS)-function models
Uncertainty in water transit time estimation with StorAge Selection functions and tracer data interpolation
Changes in Mediterranean flood processes and seasonality
A Network Approach for Multiscale Catchment Classification using Traits
Can the combining of wetlands with reservoir operation reduce the risk of future floods and droughts?
Advancing Understanding of Lake-Watershed Hydrology Through A Fully Coupled Numerical Model
Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado
When best is the enemy of good – critical evaluation of performance criteria in hydrological models
The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment
Producing reliable hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs without resorting to meteorological observations
Afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain
Using normalised difference infrared index patterns to constrain semi-distributed rainfall–runoff models in tropical nested catchments
Revisiting the hydrological basis of the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups
Reconstructing five decades of sediment export from two glacierized high-alpine catchments in Tyrol, Austria, using nonparametric regression
Water and energy budgets over hydrological basins on short and long timescales
Multi-model approach in a variable spatial framework for streamflow simulation
Hydrological response to climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region
Incorporating experimentally derived streamflow contributions into model parameterization to improve discharge prediction
Machine-learning- and deep-learning-based streamflow prediction in a hilly catchment for future scenarios using CMIP6 GCM data
River hydraulic modeling with ICESat-2 land and water surface elevation
Hydrological modeling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in urban and peri-urban environments: the case of Kifisos experimental subbasin (Athens, Greece)
Monetizing the role of water in sustaining watershed ecosystem services using a fully integrated subsurface–surface water model
Technical note: How physically based is hydrograph separation by recursive digital filtering?
A comprehensive open-source course for teaching applied hydrological modelling in Central Asia
Impact of distributed meteorological forcing on simulated snow cover and hydrological fluxes over a mid-elevation alpine micro-scale catchment
Ricardo Mantilla, Morgan Fonley, and Nicolás Velásquez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1373–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologists strive to “Be right for the right reasons” when modeling the hydrologic cycle; however, the datasets available to validate hydrological models are sparse, and in many cases, they comprise streamflow observations at the outlets of large catchments. In this work, we show that matching streamflow observations at the outlet of a large basin is not a reliable indicator of a correct description of the small-scale runoff processes.
Lillian M. McGill, E. Ashley Steel, and Aimee H. Fullerton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1351–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the relationship between air and river temperatures in Washington's Snoqualmie and Wenatchee basins. We used classification and regression approaches to show that the sensitivity of river temperature to air temperature is variable across basins and controlled largely by geology and snowmelt. Findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation, such as identifying climate-insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.
Stephanie R. Clark, Julien Lerat, Jean-Michel Perraud, and Peter Fitch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1191–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To determine if deep learning models are in general a viable alternative to traditional hydrologic modelling techniques in Australian catchments, a comparison of river–runoff predictions is made between traditional conceptual models and deep learning models in almost 500 catchments spread over the continent. It is found that the deep learning models match or outperform the traditional models in over two-thirds of the river catchments, indicating feasibility in a wide variety of conditions.
Dipti Tiwari, Mélanie Trudel, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1127–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Calibrating hydrological models with multi-objective functions enhances model robustness. By using spatially distributed snow information in the calibration, the model performance can be enhanced without compromising the outputs. In this study the HYDROTEL model was calibrated in seven different experiments, incorporating the SPAEF (spatial efficiency) metric alongside Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE), with the aim of identifying the optimal calibration strategy.
Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura Elizabeth Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 945–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a widely used machine-learning model in hydrology, but it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM, which represents processes like a hydrological reservoir. Models based on HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM while requiring fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydrology of a catchment. Our results show how parsimony and hydrological knowledge extraction can be achieved by using the new structure.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
Claire Kouba and Thomas Harter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 691–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some watersheds, the severity of the dry season has a large impact on aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we design a way to predict, 5–6 months in advance, how severe the dry season will be in a rural watershed in northern California. This early warning can support seasonal adaptive management. To predict these two values, we assess data about snow, rain, groundwater, and river flows. We find that maximum snowpack and total wet season rainfall best predict dry season severity.
Yi Nan and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 669–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper utilized a tracer-aided model validated by multiple datasets in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau to analyze hydrological sensitivity to climate change. The spatial pattern of the local hydrological sensitivities and the influence factors were analyzed in particular. The main finding of this paper is that the local hydrological sensitivity in mountainous basins is determined by the relationship between the glacier area ratio and the mean annual precipitation.
Michael J. Vlah, Matthew R. V. Ross, Spencer Rhea, and Emily S. Bernhardt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 545–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Virtual stream gauging enables continuous streamflow estimation where a gauge might be difficult or impractical to install. We reconstructed flow at 27 gauges of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), informing ~199 site-months of missing data in the official record and improving that accuracy of official estimates at 11 sites. This study shows that machine learning, but also routine regression methods, can be used to supplement existing gauge networks and reduce monitoring costs.
Sungwook Wi and Scott Steinschneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 479–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether deep learning (DL) models can produce physically plausible streamflow projections under climate change. We address this question by focusing on modeled responses to increases in temperature and potential evapotranspiration and by employing three DL and three process-based hydrological models. The results suggest that physical constraints regarding model architecture and input are necessary to promote the physical realism of DL hydrological projections under climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.
Salam A. Abbas, Ryan T. Bailey, Jeremy T. White, Jeffrey G. Arnold, Michael J. White, Natalja Čerkasova, and Jungang Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 21–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research highlights.
1. Implemented groundwater module (gwflow) into SWAT+ for four watersheds with different unique hydrologic features across the United States.
2. Presented methods for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation for coupled models.
3. Sensitivity analysis for streamflow and groundwater head conducted using Morris method.
4. Uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation performed using an iterative ensemble smoother within the PEST framework.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.
Yuhang Zhang, Aizhong Ye, Bita Analui, Phu Nguyen, Soroosh Sorooshian, Kuolin Hsu, and Yuxuan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4529–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study shows that while the quantile regression forest (QRF) and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) models demonstrate similar proficiency in multipoint probabilistic predictions, QRF excels in smaller watersheds and CMAL-LSTM in larger ones. CMAL-LSTM performs better in single-point deterministic predictions, whereas QRF model is more efficient overall.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Pamela E. Tetford and Joseph R. Desloges
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3977–3998, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An efficient regional flood frequency model relates drainage area to discharge, with a major assumption of similar basin conditions. In a landscape with variable glacial deposits and land use, we characterize varying hydrological function using 28 explanatory variables. We demonstrate that (1) a heterogeneous landscape requires objective model selection criteria to optimize the fit of flow data, and (2) incorporating land use as a predictor variable improves the drainage area to discharge model.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-237, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate the spatial distribution information of input variables when implementing LSTM models for streamflow prediction. This paper presents a novel hybrid modeling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise in predicting streamflow at large ungauged basin.
Ana Ramos Oliveira, Tiago Brito Ramos, Lígia Pinto, and Ramiro Neves
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3875–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3875-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper intends to demonstrate the adequacy of a hybrid solution to overcome the difficulties related to the incorporation of human behavior when modeling hydrological processes. Two models were implemented, one to estimate the outflow of a reservoir and the other to simulate the hydrological processes of the watershed. With both models feeding each other, results show that the proposed approach significantly improved the streamflow estimation downstream of the reservoir.
Zhihua He, Kevin Shook, Christopher Spence, John W. Pomeroy, and Colin Whitfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3525–3546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow over the Canadian Prairies. The entire prairie region was divided into seven basin types. We found strong variations of hydrological sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes in different land covers and basins, which suggests that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the prairies.
Nicolás Cortés-Salazar, Nicolás Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3505–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows how important river models can be for water resource applications that involve hydrological models and, in particular, parameter calibration. To this end, we conduct numerical experiments in a pilot basin using a combination of hydrologic model simulations obtained from a large sample of parameter sets and different routing methods. We find that routing can affect streamflow simulations, even at monthly time steps; the choice of parameters; and relevant streamflow metrics.
Dung Trung Vu, Thanh Duc Dang, Francesca Pianosi, and Stefano Galelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3485–3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The calibration of hydrological models over extensive spatial domains is often challenged by the lack of data on river discharge and the operations of hydraulic infrastructures. Here, we use satellite data to address the lack of data that could unintentionally bias the calibration process. Our study is underpinned by a computational framework that quantifies this bias and provides a safe approach to the calibration of models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins.
Francesco Fatone, Bartosz Szeląg, Przemysław Kowal, Arthur McGarity, Adam Kiczko, Grzegorz Wałek, Ewa Wojciechowska, Michał Stachura, and Nicolas Caradot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3329–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A novel methodology for the development of a stormwater network performance simulator including advanced risk assessment was proposed. The applied tool enables the analysis of the influence of spatial variability in catchment and stormwater network characteristics on the relation between (SWMM) model parameters and specific flood volume, as an alternative approach to mechanistic models. The proposed method can be used at the stage of catchment model development and spatial planning management.
Olivier Delaigue, Pierre Brigode, Guillaume Thirel, and Laurent Coron
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3293–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Teaching hydrological modeling is an important, but difficult, matter. It requires appropriate tools and teaching material. In this article, we present the airGRteaching package, which is an open-source software tool relying on widely used hydrological models. This tool proposes an interface and numerous hydrological modeling exercises representing a wide range of hydrological applications. We show how this tool can be applied to simple but real-life cases.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, Gerrit Schoups, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3083–3114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that previously reported underestimations of water ages are most likely not due to the use of seasonally variable tracers. Rather, these underestimations can be largely attributed to the choices of model approaches which rely on assumptions not frequently met in catchment hydrology. We therefore strongly advocate avoiding the use of this model type in combination with seasonally variable tracers and instead adopting StorAge Selection (SAS)-based or comparable model formulations.
Arianna Borriero, Rohini Kumar, Tam V. Nguyen, Jan H. Fleckenstein, and Stefanie R. Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2989–3004, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2989-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the uncertainty of the water transit time distribution (TTD) arising from model input (interpolated tracer data) and structure (StorAge Selection, SAS, functions). We found that uncertainty was mainly associated with temporal interpolation, choice of SAS function, nonspatial interpolation, and low-flow conditions. It is important to characterize the specific uncertainty sources and their combined effects on TTD, as this has relevant implications for both water quantity and quality.
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean floods are causing major damage, and recent studies have shown that, despite the increase in intense rainfall, there has been no increase in river floods. This study reveals that the seasonality of floods changed in the Mediterranean Basin during 1959–2021. There was also an increased frequency of floods linked to short episodes of intense rain, associated with a decrease in soil moisture. These changes need to be taken into consideration to adapt flood warning systems.
Fabio Ciulla and Charuleka Varadharajan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1675, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When studying the behavior of rivers, like their tendency to flood, it is useful to group them using the characteristics of their surrounding areas like geology, climate, land use and human influence. We developed a method that, in addition to this classification, also returns the relevant characteristics of each group and associates them to particular behaviors. In this way we better understand how rivers interact with the environment and can try to improve the predictions of future behaviors.
Yanfeng Wu, Jingxuan Sun, Boting Hu, Y. Jun Xu, Alain N. Rousseau, and Guangxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2725–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs and wetlands are important regulators of watershed hydrology, which should be considered when projecting floods and droughts. We first coupled wetlands and reservoir operations into a semi-spatially-explicit hydrological model and then applied it in a case study involving a large river basin in northeast China. We found that, overall, the risk of future floods and droughts will increase further even under the combined influence of reservoirs and wetlands.
Lele Shu, Xiaodong Li, Yan Chang, Xianhong Meng, Hao Chen, Yuan Qi, Hongwei Wang, Zhaoguo Li, and Shihua Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-166, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new model to better understand how water moves in a lake basin. Our model improves upon previous methods by accurately capturing the complexity of water movement, both on the surface and subsurface. Our model tested using data from China's Qinghai Lake, accurately replicates complex water movements and identifies contributing factors of lake's water balance. The findings provide a robust tool for predicting hydrological processes, aiding water resource planning.
Peishi Jiang, Pin Shuai, Alexander Sun, Maruti K. Mudunuru, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2621–2644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2621-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2621-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a novel deep learning approach to estimate the parameters of a computationally expensive hydrological model on only a few hundred realizations. Our approach leverages the knowledge obtained by data-driven analysis to guide the design of the deep learning model used for parameter estimation. We demonstrate this approach by calibrating a state-of-the-art hydrological model against streamflow and evapotranspiration observations at a snow-dominated watershed in Colorado.
Guillaume Cinkus, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2397–2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is a performance criterion extensively used to evaluate hydrological models. We conduct a critical study on the KGE and its variant to examine counterbalancing errors. Results show that, when assessing a simulation, concurrent over- and underestimation of discharge can lead to an overall higher criterion score without an associated increase in model relevance. We suggest that one carefully choose performance criteria and use scaling factors.
Dapeng Feng, Hylke Beck, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2357–2373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Powerful hybrid models (called δ or delta models) embrace the fundamental learning capability of AI and can also explain the physical processes. Here we test their performance when applied to regions not in the training data. δ models rivaled the accuracy of state-of-the-art AI models under the data-dense scenario and even surpassed them for the data-sparse one. They generalize well due to the physical structure included. δ models could be ideal candidates for global hydrologic assessment.
Simon Ricard, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Antoine Thiboult, and François Anctil
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2375–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations. Results confirm that the proposed workflow produces equivalent projections of the seasonal mean flows in comparison to a conventional hydroclimatic modelling approach. The proposed approach supports the participation of end-users in interpreting the impact of climate change on water resources.
Marcus Edmund Henry Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-138, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Nutchanart Sriwongsitanon, Wasana Jandang, James Williams, Thienchart Suwawong, Ekkarin Maekan, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2149–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed predictive semi-distributed rainfall–runoff models for nested sub-catchments in the upper Ping basin, which yielded better or similar performance compared to calibrated lumped models. The normalised difference infrared index proves to be an effective proxy for distributed root zone moisture capacity over sub-catchments and is well correlated with the percentage of evergreen forest. In validation, soil moisture simulations appeared to be highly correlated with the soil wetness index.
Yuchan Chen, Xiuzhi Chen, Meimei Xue, Chuanxun Yang, Wei Zheng, Jun Cao, Wenting Yan, and Wenping Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the quantification and estimation of the watershed-characteristic-related parameter (Pw) in the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups. The results show that Pw is closely related to soil moisture and fractional vegetation cover, and the relationship varies across specific hydrologic similarity groups. The overall satisfactory performance of the Pw estimation model improves the applicability of the Budyko framework for global runoff estimation.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, Christoph Mayer, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1841–1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a suitable method to reconstruct sediment export from decadal records of hydroclimatic predictors (discharge, precipitation, temperature) and shorter suspended sediment measurements. This lets us fill the knowledge gap on how sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas has responded to climate change. We find positive trends in sediment export from the two investigated nested catchments with step-like increases around 1981 which are linked to crucial changes in glacier melt.
Samantha Petch, Bo Dong, Tristan Quaife, Robert P. King, and Keith Haines
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1723–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gravitational measurements of water storage from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) can improve understanding of the water budget. We produce flux estimates over large river catchments based on observations that close the monthly water budget and ensure consistency with GRACE on short and long timescales. We use energy data to provide additional constraints and balance the long-term energy budget. These flux estimates are important for evaluating climate models.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-569, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling frameworks tested.
Ting Su, Chiyuan Miao, Qingyun Duan, Jiaojiao Gou, Xiaoying Guo, and Xi Zhao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1477–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Three-River Source Region (TRSR) plays an extremely important role in water resources security and ecological and environmental protection in China and even all of Southeast Asia. This study used the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrologic model linked with the degree-day factor algorithm to simulate the runoff change in the TRSR. These results will help to guide current and future regulation and management of water resources in the TRSR.
Andreas Hartmann, Jean-Lionel Payeur-Poirier, and Luisa Hopp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1325-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We advance our understanding of including information derived from environmental tracers into hydrological modeling. We present a simple approach that integrates streamflow observations and tracer-derived streamflow contributions for model parameter estimation. We consider multiple observed streamflow components and their variation over time to quantify the impact of their inclusion for streamflow prediction at the catchment scale.
Dharmaveer Singh, Manu Vardhan, Rakesh Sahu, Debrupa Chatterjee, Pankaj Chauhan, and Shiyin Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1047–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1047-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1047-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines, for the first time, the potential of various machine learning models in streamflow prediction over the Sutlej River basin (rainfall-dominated zone) in western Himalaya during the period 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) and its relationship to climate variability. The mean ensemble of the model results shows that the mean annual streamflow of the Sutlej River is expected to rise between the 2050s and 2080s by 0.79 to 1.43 % for SSP585 and by 0.87 to 1.10 % for SSP245.
Monica Coppo Frias, Suxia Liu, Xingguo Mo, Karina Nielsen, Heidi Ranndal, Liguang Jiang, Jun Ma, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1011–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1011-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1011-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses remote sensing data from ICESat-2 to calibrate a 1D hydraulic model. With the model, we can make estimations of discharge and water surface elevation, which are important indicators in flooding risk assessment. ICESat-2 data give an added value, thanks to the 0.7 m resolution, which allows the measurement of narrow river streams. In addition, ICESat-2 provides measurements on the river dry portion geometry that can be included in the model.
Evgenia Koltsida, Nikos Mamassis, and Andreas Kallioras
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 917–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-917-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-917-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Daily and hourly rainfall observations were inputted to a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of rainfall temporal resolution on a discharge simulation. Results indicated that groundwater flow parameters were more sensitive to daily time intervals, and channel routing parameters were more influential for hourly time intervals. This study suggests that the SWAT model appears to be a reliable tool to predict discharge in a mixed-land-use basin.
Tariq Aziz, Steven K. Frey, David R. Lapen, Susan Preston, Hazen A. J. Russell, Omar Khader, Andre R. Erler, and Edward A. Sudicky
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-25, 2023
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The study determines the value of water towards ecosystem services production in an agricultural watershed in Ontario, Canada. It uses a computer model and an economic valuation approach to determine how subsurface and surface water affect ecosystem services supply. The results show that subsurface water plays a critical role in maintaining ecosystem services. The study informs on the sustainable use of subsurface water and introduces a new method for managing watershed ecosystem services.
Klaus Eckhardt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 495–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-495-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-495-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An important hydrological issue is to identify components of streamflow that react to precipitation with different degrees of attenuation and delay. From the multitude of methods that have been developed for this so-called hydrograph separation, a specific, frequently used one is singled out here. It is shown to be derived from plausible physical principles. This increases confidence in its results.
Beatrice Sabine Marti, Aidar Zhumabaev, and Tobias Siegfried
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 319–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical modelling is often used for climate impact studies in water resources management. It is, however, not yet highly accessible to many students of hydrology in Central Asia. One big hurdle for new learners is the preparation of relevant data prior to the actual modelling. We present a robust, open-source workflow and comprehensive teaching material that can be used by teachers and by students for self study.
Aniket Gupta, Alix Reverdy, Jean-Martial Cohard, Basile Hector, Marc Descloitres, Jean-Pierre Vandervaere, Catherine Coulaud, Romain Biron, Lucie Liger, Reed Maxwell, Jean-Gabriel Valay, and Didier Voisin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 191–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Patchy snow cover during spring impacts mountainous ecosystems on a large range of spatio-temporal scales. A hydrological model simulated such snow patchiness at 10 m resolution. Slope and orientation controls precipitation, radiation, and wind generate differences in snowmelt, subsurface storage, streamflow, and evapotranspiration. The snow patchiness increases the duration of the snowmelt to stream and subsurface storage, which sustains the plants and streamflow later in the summer.
Cited articles
Addor, N. and Melsen, L. A.: Legacy, Rather Than Adequacy, Drives the Selection of Hydrological Models, Water Resour. Res., 55, 378–390, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022958, 2019.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Mendoza, P. A., Pablo Boisier, J., Addor, N., Galleguillos, M., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Lara, A., Puelma, C., Cortes, G., Garreaud, R., McPhee, J., and Ayala, A.: The CAMELS-CL dataset: Catchment attributes and meteorology for large sample studies-Chile dataset, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018.
Anderson, E.: National Weather Service River Forecast system – snow accumulation and ablation model, NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS HYDRO-17, NOAA, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/13507 (last access: 23 March 2023), 1973.
Araya, D., Mendoza, P. A., McPhee, J., and Muñoz-Castro, E.: A hydrological modeling dataset for ensemble streamflow forecasting in 22 snow-influenced basins in Central Chile, Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7853556, 2023.
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018.
Ayala, Á., Farías-Barahona, D., Huss, M., Pellicciotti, F., McPhee, J., and Farinotti, D.: Glacier runoff variations since 1955 in the Maipo River basin, in the semiarid Andes of central Chile, The Cryosphere, 14, 2005–2027, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, 2020.
Baez-Villanueva, O. M., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Mendoza, P. A., McNamara, I., Beck, H. E., Thurner, J., Nauditt, A., Ribbe, L., and Thinh, N. X.: On the selection of precipitation products for the regionalisation of hydrological model parameters, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5805–5837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, 2021.
Baker, S. A., Rajagopalan, B., and Wood, A. W.: Enhancing Ensemble Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Upper Colorado River Basin Using Multi-Model Climate Forecasts, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 57, 906–922, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12960, 2021.
Bergström, S.: Development and application of a conceptual runoff model for Scandinavian catchments, Report RHO 7, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:1456191&dswid=-4221 (last access: 8 March 2023), 1976.
Bohn, T. J., Sonessa, M. Y., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Seasonal hydrologic forecasting: Do multimodel ensemble averages always yield improvements in forecast skill?, J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 1358–1372, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1267.1, 2010.
Boisier, J. P., Alvarez-Garretón, C., Cepeda, J., Osses, A., Vásquez, N., and Rondanelli, R.: CR2MET: A high-resolution precipitation and temperature dataset for hydroclimatic research in Chile, Center for Climate and Resilience Research [data set], https://www.cr2.cl/datos-productos-grillados/ (last access: 11 March 2023), 2018.
Budyko, M. I.: Climate and Life, Academic Press, London, ISBN 9780080954530, 1974.
Burnash, R., Ferral, R., and McGuire, R.: A generalized streamflow simulation system – Conceptual modeling for digital computers, Sacramento, California, https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/753303 (last access: 7 March 2023), 1973.
Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, E. R., Williams, A. P., Anchukaitis, K. J., Mankin, J. S., Allen, K., Andreu-Hayles, L., Ault, T. R., Belmecheri, S., Coats, S., Coulthard, B., Fosu, B., Grierson, P., Griffin, D., Herrera, D. A., Ionita, M., Lehner, F., Leland, C., Marvel, K., Morales, M. S., Mishra, V., Ngoma, J., Nguyen, H. T. T., O'Donnell, A., Palmer, J., Rao, M. P., Rodriguez-Caton, M., Seager, R., Stahle, D. W., Stevenson, S., Thapa, U. K., Varuolo-Clarke, A. M., and Wise, E. K.: Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1, 2022.
Cornwell, E., Molotch, N. P., and McPhee, J.: Spatio-temporal variability of snow water equivalent in the extra-tropical Andes Cordillera from distributed energy balance modeling and remotely sensed snow cover, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 411–430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-411-2016, 2016.
Coron, L., Thirel, G., Delaigue, O., Perrin, C., and Andréassian, V.: The suite of lumped GR hydrological models in an R package, Environ. Model. Softw., 94, 166–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.05.002, 2017.
Crochemore, L., Ramos, M.-H., and Pappenberger, F.: Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3601–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, 2016.
Crochemore, L., Ramos, M. H., Pappenberger, F., and Perrin, C.: Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1573–1591, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017, 2017.
Crochemore, L., Ramos, M. H., and Pechlivanidis, I. G.: Can Continental Models Convey Useful Seasonal Hydrologic Information at the Catchment Scale?, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025700, 2020.
Day, G. N.: Extended Streamflow Forecasting Using NWSRFS, J. Water Resour. Pl. Manage., 111, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1985)111:2(157), 1985.
DeChant, C. M. and Moradkhani, H.: Toward a reliable prediction of seasonal forecast uncertainty: Addressing model and initial condition uncertainty with ensemble data assimilation and Sequential Bayesian Combination, J. Hydrol., 519, 2967–2977, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.045, 2014.
DGA: Actualización del balance hídrico nacional, SIT No. 417, Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Dirección General de Aguas, División de Estudios y Planificación, Santiago, Chile, https://snia.mop.gob.cl/repositoriodga/handle/20.500.13000/6961 (last access: 24 March 2023), 2017.
DGA: Pronóstico de caudales de deshielo periodo septiembre/2022-marzo/2023, SDT No. 448, https://snia.mop.gob.cl/repositoriodga/handle/20.500.13000/125978 (last access: 22 March 2023), 2022.
Donegan, S., Murphy, C., Harrigan, S., Broderick, C., Foran Quinn, D., Golian, S., Knight, J., Matthews, T., Prudhomme, C., Scaife, A. A., Stringer, N., and Wilby, R. L.: Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021.
Duan, Q., Sorooshian, S., and Gupta, V.: Effective and Efficient Global Optimization for Conceptual Rainfal-Runoff Models, Water Resour. Res., 28, 1015–1031, 1992.
Duethmann, D., Peters, J., Blume, T., Vorogushyn, S., and Güntner, A.: The value of satellite-derived snow cover images for calibrating a hydrological model in snow-dominated catchments in Central Asia, Water Resour. Res., 50, 2002–2021, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014382, 2014.
Fowler, K., Peel, M., Western, A., and Zhang, L.: Improved Rainfall-Runoff Calibration for Drying Climate: Choice of Objective Function, Water Resour. Res., 54, 3392–3408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022466, 2018a.
Fowler, K., Coxon, G., Freer, J., Peel, M., Wagener, T., Western, A., Woods, R., and Zhang, L.: Simulating Runoff Under Changing Climatic Conditions: A Framework for Model Improvement, Water Resour. Res., 54, 9812–9832, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023989, 2018b.
Franz, K. J., Hartmann, H. C., Sorooshian, S., and Bales, R.: Verification of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for water supply forecasting in the Colorado River Basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1105–1118, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1105:VONWSE>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Garreaud, R., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Barichivich, J., Pablo Boisier, J., Christie, D., Galleguillos, M., LeQuesne, C., McPhee, J., and Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.: The 2010–2015 megadrought in central Chile: Impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6307–6327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, 2017.
Garreaud, R. D., Boisier, J. P. P., Rondanelli, R., Montecinos, A., Sepúlveda, H. H. H., and Veloso-Aguila, D.: The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010–2018): A climate dynamics perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6219, 2019.
Gharari, S., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., and Savenije, H. H. G.: An approach to identify time consistent model parameters: Sub-period calibration, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 149–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-149-2013, 2013.
Girons Lopez, M., Vis, M. J. P., Jenicek, M., Griessinger, N., and Seibert, J.: Assessing the degree of detail of temperature-based snow routines for runoff modelling in mountainous areas in central Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4441–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, 2020.
Girons Lopez, M., Crochemore, L., and G. Pechlivanidis, I.: Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1189–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, 2021.
Giuliani, M., Crochemore, L., Pechlivanidis, I., and Castelletti, A.: From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5891–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020, 2020.
Greuell, W., Franssen, W. H. P., and Hutjes, R. W. A.: Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part 2: Sources of skill, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 371–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-371-2019, 2019.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Hamlet, A. F. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River basin, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 1597–1623, 1999.
Harder, P. and Pomeroy, J. W.: Hydrological model uncertainty due to precipitation-phase partitioning methods, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4311–4327, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10214, 2014.
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference Crop Evapotranspiration from Temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1, 96–99, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773, 1985.
Harpold, A. A., Kaplan, M. L., Zion Klos, P., Link, T., McNamara, J. P., Rajagopal, S., Schumer, R., and Steele, C. M.: Rain or snow: Hydrologic processes, observations, prediction, and research needs, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1-2017, 2017.
Harrigan, S., Prudhomme, C., Parry, S., Smith, K., and Tanguy, M.: Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, 2018.
Hernandez, D., Mendoza, P. A., Boisier, J. P., and Ricchetti, F.: Hydrologic Sensitivities and ENSO Variability Across Hydrological Regimes in Central Chile (28∘–41∘ S), Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR031860, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031860, 2022.
Hersbach, H.: Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems, Weather Forecast., 15, 559–570, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0559:DOTCRP>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Hrachowitz, M. and Clark, M. P.: HESS Opinions: The complementary merits of competing modelling philosophies in hydrology, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017.
Huang, C., Newman, A. J., Clark, M. P., Wood, A. W., and Zheng, X.: Evaluation of snow data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter for seasonal streamflow prediction in the western United States, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 635–650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-635-2017, 2017.
Kling, H., Fuchs, M., and Paulin, M.: Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios, J. Hydrol., 424–425, 264–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.011, 2012.
Kunnath-Poovakka, A., Ryu, D., Renzullo, L. J., and George, B.: The efficacy of calibrating hydrologic model using remotely sensed evapotranspiration and soil moisture for streamflow prediction, J. Hydrol., 535, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.018, 2016.
Ladson, A., Brown, R., Neal, B., and Nathan, R.: A standard approach to baseflow separation using the Lyne and Hollick filter, Aust. J. Water Resour., 17, 25–34, https://doi.org/10.7158/13241583.2013.11465417, 2013.
Laio, F. and Tamea, S.: Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1267–1277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1267-2007, 2007.
Lohmann, D., Nolte-Holube, R., and Raschke, E.: A large scale horizontal routing model to be coupled to land surface parametrization schemes, Tellus A, 48, 708–721, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v48i5.12200, 1996.
Lucatero, D., Madsen, H., Refsgaard, J. C., Kidmose, J., and Jensen, K. H.: Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: The effect of preprocessing and post-processing on skill and statistical consistency, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3601–3617, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018, 2018.
Martinez, G. F. and Gupta, H. V.: Toward improved identification of hydrological models: A diagnostic evaluation of the “abcd ” monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States, Water Resour. Res., 46, W08507, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008294, 2010.
Melsen, L., Teuling, A. J., Torfs, P. J. J. F., Zappa, M., Mizukami, N., Mendoza, P. A., Clark, M. P., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Subjective modeling decisions can significantly impact the simulation of flood and drought events, J. Hydrol., 568, 1093–1104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.11.046, 2019.
Mendoza, P. A., Rajagopalan, B., Clark, M. P., Cortés, G., and McPhee, J.: A robust multimodel framework for ensemble seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts, Water Resour. Res., 50, 6030–6052, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015426, 2014.
Mendoza, P. A., Clark, M. P., Mizukami, N., Newman, A., Barlage, M., Gutmann, E., Rasmussen, R., Rajagopalan, B., Brekke, L., and Arnold, J.: Effects of hydrologic model choice and calibration on the portrayal of climate change impacts, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 762–780, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0104.1, 2015.
Mendoza, P. A., Wood, A. W., Clark, E., Rothwell, E., Clark, M. P., Nijssen, B., Brekke, L. D., and Arnold, J. R.: An intercomparison of approaches for improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3915–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, 2017.
Mendoza, P. A., Shaw, T. E., McPhee, J., Musselman, K. N., Revuelto, J., and MacDonell, S.: Spatial Distribution and Scaling Properties of Lidar-Derived Snow Depth in the Extratropical Andes, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2021WR031860, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028480, 2020.
Micheletty, P., Perrot, D., Day, G., and Rittger, K.: Assimilation of Ground and Satellite Snow Observations in a Distributed Hydrologic Model for Water Supply Forecasting, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 58, 1030–1048, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12975, 2021.
Mizukami, N., Rakovec, O., Newman, A. J., Clark, M. P., Wood, A. W., Gupta, H. V., and Kumar, R.: On the choice of calibration metrics for “high-flow” estimation using hydrologic models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, 2019.
Muñoz-Castro, E., Mendoza, P. A., Vásquez, N., and Vargas, X.: Exploring parameter (dis)agreement due to calibration metric selection in conceptual rainfall-runoff models, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 68, 1754–1768, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2231434, 2023.
Murillo, O., Mendoza, P. A., Vásquez, N., Mizukami, N., and Ayala, Á.: Impacts of Subgrid Temperature Distribution Along Elevation Bands in Snowpack Modeling: Insights From a Suite of Andean Catchments, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2022WR032113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032113, 2022.
Najafi, M. and Moradkhani, H.: Ensemble Combination of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts, J. Hydrol. Eng., 21, 04015043, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001250, 2015.
Nash, J. and Sutcliffe, J.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nemri, S. and Kinnard, C.: Comparing calibration strategies of a conceptual snow hydrology model and their impact on model performance and parameter identifiability, J. Hydrol., 582, 124474, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124474, 2020.
Nijzink, R. C., Almeida, S., Pechlivanidis, I. G., Capell, R., Gustafssons, D., Arheimer, B., Parajka, J., Freer, J., Han, D., Wagener, T., Nooijen, R. R. P., Savenije, H. H. G., and Hrachowitz, M.: Constraining Conceptual Hydrological Models With Multiple Information Sources, Water Resour. Res., 54, 8332–8362, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR021895, 2018.
Oudin, L., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Le Moine, N.: Spatial proximity, physical similarity, regression and ungaged catchments: A comparison of regionalization approaches based on 913 French catchments, Water Resour. Res., 44, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006240, 2008.
Parajka, J., Merz, R., and Blöschl, G.: Uncertainty and multiple objective calibration in regional water balance modelling: case study in 320 Austrian catchments, Hydrol. Process., 21, 435–446, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6253, 2007.
Pauwels, V. R. N. and De Lannoy, G. J. M.: Ensemble-based assimilation of discharge into rainfall-runoff models: A comparison of approaches to mapping observational information to state space, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08428, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007590, 2009.
Pechlivanidis, I. G., Crochemore, L., Rosberg, J., and Bosshard, T.: What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts?, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026987, 2020.
Peñuela, A., Hutton, C., and Pianosi, F.: Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6059–6073, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020, 2020.
Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Andréassian, V.: Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 279, 275–289, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00225-7, 2003.
Pokhrel, P., Yilmaz, K. K., and Gupta, H. V.: Multiple-criteria calibration of a distributed watershed model using spatial regularization and response signatures, J. Hydrol., 418–419, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.004, 2012.
Pool, S., Vis, M. J. P., Knight, R. R., and Seibert, J.: Streamflow characteristics from modeled runoff time series – Importance of calibration criteria selection, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5443–5457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5443-2017, 2017.
Pool, S., Vis, M., and Seibert, J.: Evaluating model performance: towards a non-parametric variant of the Kling–Gupta efficiency, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 63, 1941–1953, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1552002, 2018.
Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., and Franks, S. W.: Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors, Water Resour. Res., 46, W05521, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008328, 2010.
Saavedra, D., Mendoza, P. A., Addor, N., Llauca, H., and Vargas, X.: A multi-objective approach to select hydrological models and constrain structural uncertainties for climate impact assessments, Hydrol. Process., 36, e14446, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14446, 2022.
Sabzipour, B., Arsenault, R., and Brissette, F.: Evaluation of the potential of using subsets of historical climatological data for ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting, J. Hydrol., 595, 125656, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125656, 2021.
Sepúlveda, U. M., Mendoza, P. A., Mizukami, N., and Newman, A. J.: Revisiting parameter sensitivities in the variable infiltration capacity model across a hydroclimatic gradient, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3419–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3419-2022, 2022.
Shafii, M. and Tolson, B. A.: Optimizing hydrological consistency by incorporating hydrological signatures into model calibration objectives, Water Resour. Res., 51, 3796–3814, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016520, 2015.
Shi, W., Schaller, N., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T. N. N., and Weisheimer, A.: Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1554–1559, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062829, 2015.
Shi, X., Wood, A. W., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: How Essential is Hydrologic Model Calibration to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting?, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 1350–1363, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM1001.1, 2008.
Singla, S., Céron, J.-P. P., Martin, E., Regimbeau, F., Déqué, M., Habets, F., and Vidal, J.-P. P.: Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-201-2012, 2012.
Skøien, J. O., Blöschl, G., Laaha, G., Pebesma, E., Parajka, J., and Viglione, A.: rtop: An R package for interpolation of data with a variable spatial support, with an example from river networks, Comput. Geosci., 67, 180–190, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2014.02.009, 2014.
Slater, L. J., Arnal, L., Boucher, M.-A., Chang, A. Y.-Y., Moulds, S., Murphy, C., Nearing, G., Shalev, G., Shen, C., Speight, L., Villarini, G., Wilby, R. L., Wood, A., and Zappa, M.: Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023.
Sleziak, P., Szolgay, J., Hlavčová, K., Danko, M., and Parajka, J.: The effect of the snow weighting on the temporal stability of hydrologic model efficiency and parameters, J. Hydrol., 583, 124639, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124639, 2020.
Şorman, A. A., Şensoy, A., Tekeli, A. E., Şorman, A. Ü., and Akyürek, Z.: Modelling and forecasting snowmelt runoff process using the HBV model in the eastern part of Turkey, Hydrol. Process., 23, 1031–1040, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7204, 2009.
Tachikawa, T., Hato, M., Kaku, M., and Iwasaki, A.: Characteristics of ASTER GDEM version 2, in: Int. Geosci. Remote Sens. Symp., 24–29 July 2011, Vancouver, BC, Canada, 3657–3660, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2011.6050017, 2011.
Taner, M.: sacsmaR: SAC-SMA Hydrology Model, R Package version 0.0.1, https://github.com/tanerumit/sacsmaR (last access: 7 January 2023), 2019.
Tang, G., Clark, M. P., and Papalexiou, S. M.: SC-earth: A station-based serially complete earth dataset from 1950 to 2019, J. Climate, 34, 6493–6511, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0067.1, 2021.
Tong, R., Parajka, J., Salentinig, A., Pfeil, I., Komma, J., Széles, B., Kubáň, M., Valent, P., Vreugdenhil, M., Wagner, W., and Blöschl, G.: The value of ASCAT soil moisture and MODIS snow cover data for calibrating a conceptual hydrologic model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1389–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1389-2021, 2021.
Trambauer, P., Werner, M., Winsemius, H. C., Maskey, S., Dutra, E., and Uhlenbrook, S.: Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1695-2015, 2015.
Tuo, Y., Marcolini, G., Disse, M., and Chiogna, G.: A multi-objective approach to improve SWAT model calibration in alpine catchments, J. Hydrol., 559, 347–360, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.055, 2018.
Valéry, A., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: “As simple as possible but not simpler”: What is useful in a temperature-based snow-accounting routine? Part 1 – Comparison of six snow accounting routines on 380 catchments, J. Hydrol., 517, 1166–1175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.059, 2014a.
Valéry, A., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: `As simple as possible but not simpler': What is useful in a temperature-based snow-accounting routine? Part 2 – Sensitivity analysis of the Cemaneige snow accounting routine on 380 catchments, J. Hydrol., 517, 1176–1187, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.058, 2014b.
Vásquez, N., Cepeda, J., Gómez, T., Mendoza, P. A., Lagos, M., Boisier, J. P., Álvarez-Garretón, C., and Vargas, X.: Catchment-Scale Natural Water Balance in Chile, in: Water Resources of Chile, Springer International Publishing, 189–208, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56901-3_9, 2021.
Verkade, J. S., Brown, J. D., Reggiani, P., and Weerts, A. H.: Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales, J. Hydrol., 501, 73–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.039, 2013.
Viglione, A. and Parajka, J.: TUWmodel: Lumped/Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model for Education Purposes, R Package version 1.1-1, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/TUWmodel/ (last access: 7 January 2023), 2020.
Wanders, N., Thober, S., Kumar, R., Pan, M., Sheffield, J., Samaniego, L., and Wood, E. F.: Development and evaluation of a pan-European multimodel seasonal hydrological forecasting system, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 99–115, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0040.1, 2019.
Werner, K., Brandon, D., Clark, M., and Gangopadhyay, S.: Climate Index Weighting Schemes for NWS ESP-Based Seasonal Volume Forecasts, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 1076–1090, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-381.1, 2004.
Woldemeskel, F., McInerney, D., Lerat, J., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Shin, D., Tuteja, N., and Kuczera, G.: Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6257–6278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018, 2018.
Wood, A. W. and Schaake, J. C.: Correcting Errors in Streamflow Forecast Ensemble Mean and Spread, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 132–148, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM862.1, 2008.
Wood, A. W., Sankarasubramanian, A., and Mendoza, P.: Seasonal Ensemble Forecast Post-processing, in: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1–27, ISBN 364239924X, ISBN 9783642399244, 2018.
Woods, R. A.: Analytical model of seasonal climate impacts on snow hydrology: Continuous snowpacks, Adv. Water Resour., 32, 1465–1481, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.06.011, 2009.
Yang, L., Tian, F., Sun, Y., Yuan, X., and Hu, H.: Attribution of hydrologic forecast uncertainty within scalable forecast windows, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 775–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-775-2014, 2014.
Yapo, P. O., Gupta, H. V., and Sorooshian, S.: Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models, J. Hydrol., 204, 83–97, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00107-8, 1998.
Yuan, X. and Zhu, E.: A First Look at Decadal Hydrological Predictability by Land Surface Ensemble Simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2362–2369, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077211, 2018.
Yuan, X., Wood, E. F., Roundy, J. K., and Pan, M.: CFSv2-Based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts over the conterminous United States, J. Climate, 26, 4828–4847, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00683.1, 2013.
Yuan, X., Wood, E. F., and Liang, M.: Integrating weather and climate prediction: Toward seamless hydrologic forecasting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5891–5896, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061076, 2014.
Zhao, Y., Feng, D., Yu, L., Wang, X., Chen, Y., Bai, Y., Hernández, H. J., Galleguillos, M., Estades, C., Biging, G. S., Radke, J. D., and Gong, P.: Detailed dynamic land cover mapping of Chile: Accuracy improvement by integrating multi-temporal data, Remote Sens. Environ., 183, 170–185, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.05.016, 2016.
Short summary
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts,...
