Articles | Volume 27, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
Research article
 | 
14 Dec 2023
Research article |  | 14 Dec 2023

Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling

Diego Araya, Pablo A. Mendoza, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, and James McPhee

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Related subject area

Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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Cited articles

Addor, N. and Melsen, L. A.: Legacy, Rather Than Adequacy, Drives the Selection of Hydrological Models, Water Resour. Res., 55, 378–390, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022958, 2019. 
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Mendoza, P. A., Pablo Boisier, J., Addor, N., Galleguillos, M., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Lara, A., Puelma, C., Cortes, G., Garreaud, R., McPhee, J., and Ayala, A.: The CAMELS-CL dataset: Catchment attributes and meteorology for large sample studies-Chile dataset, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018. 
Anderson, E.: National Weather Service River Forecast system – snow accumulation and ablation model, NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS HYDRO-17, NOAA, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/13507 (last access: 23 March 2023), 1973. 
Araya, D., Mendoza, P. A., McPhee, J., and Muñoz-Castro, E.: A hydrological modeling dataset for ensemble streamflow forecasting in 22 snow-influenced basins in Central Chile, Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7853556, 2023.  
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
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Short summary
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
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