Articles | Volume 27, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 14 Dec 2023
| 14 Dec 2023
Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling
Diego Araya
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Eduardo Muñoz-Castro
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
James McPhee
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Streamflow forecasting using Kolmogorov-Arnold network V. Varma & J. Patel https://doi.org/10.1088/2631-8695/addd66
- Study of teleconnection between hydrological variables and climatological variables in a headwater basin of the Maipo River for forecast model application J. Montalva et al. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-16-4-3
- Study of teleconnection between hydrological variables and climatological variables in a headwater basin of the Maipo River for forecast model application J. Montalva et al. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2025-04-04
- Comparative Study of Emission Prediction Using Deep Learning Models İ. Uluocak https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaumfd.1648164
- A hybrid statistical-dynamical forecast of seasonal streamflow for a catchment in the Upper Columbia River basin in Canada T. Swift-LaPointe et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1595898
- A Robust Calibration and Evaluation Framework for Dynamic Catchment Characteristics in Hydrological Modeling T. Lan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2455-2026
- Reducing hydrological uncertainty in large mountainous basins: the role of isotope, snow cover, and glacier dynamics in capturing streamflow seasonality D. Avesani et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5755-2025
- Enhancing streamflow predictions through basin-to-basin knowledge transfer: A novel strategy for deep learning models adaptation and generalization K. Nifa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.107978
- Sensitivity Analysis of Soil Hydraulic Parameters for Improved Flow Predictions in an Atlantic Forest Watershed Using the MOHID-Land Platform D. Sales et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng6040065
- Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy F. Gateño et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03742-1
- A critical review of lumped and conceptual rainfall-runoff models: performance, hybridization, uncertainty, and data integration R. Salau et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-026-01916-2
- Holistic uncertainty quantification and attribution for real-time seasonal streamflow predictions: Insights from input, parameter and initial condition L. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102427
- Representing subgrid precipitation variability in snowpack and hydrological modeling: Is adding complexity worth it? F. Givovich et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134038
- How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions? E. Muñoz-Castro et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026
- Estimation of lake storage volumes in the Lagan River catchment in southern Sweden using a modified version of the Australian Water Resources Assessment–Landscape model (AWRA-L) A. Bjerkén et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107069
- The Attribution Identification of Runoff Changes in the Kriya River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis Provides a Basis for the Sustainable Management of Water Resources in the Basin S. Liu & K. Xing https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177882
- Increasing water stress in Chile revealed by novel datasets of water availability, land use and water use J. Boisier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5185-2025
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Streamflow forecasting using Kolmogorov-Arnold network V. Varma & J. Patel https://doi.org/10.1088/2631-8695/addd66
- Study of teleconnection between hydrological variables and climatological variables in a headwater basin of the Maipo River for forecast model application J. Montalva et al. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-16-4-3
- Study of teleconnection between hydrological variables and climatological variables in a headwater basin of the Maipo River for forecast model application J. Montalva et al. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2025-04-04
- Comparative Study of Emission Prediction Using Deep Learning Models İ. Uluocak https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaumfd.1648164
- A hybrid statistical-dynamical forecast of seasonal streamflow for a catchment in the Upper Columbia River basin in Canada T. Swift-LaPointe et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1595898
- A Robust Calibration and Evaluation Framework for Dynamic Catchment Characteristics in Hydrological Modeling T. Lan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2455-2026
- Reducing hydrological uncertainty in large mountainous basins: the role of isotope, snow cover, and glacier dynamics in capturing streamflow seasonality D. Avesani et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5755-2025
- Enhancing streamflow predictions through basin-to-basin knowledge transfer: A novel strategy for deep learning models adaptation and generalization K. Nifa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.107978
- Sensitivity Analysis of Soil Hydraulic Parameters for Improved Flow Predictions in an Atlantic Forest Watershed Using the MOHID-Land Platform D. Sales et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng6040065
- Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy F. Gateño et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03742-1
- A critical review of lumped and conceptual rainfall-runoff models: performance, hybridization, uncertainty, and data integration R. Salau et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-026-01916-2
- Holistic uncertainty quantification and attribution for real-time seasonal streamflow predictions: Insights from input, parameter and initial condition L. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102427
- Representing subgrid precipitation variability in snowpack and hydrological modeling: Is adding complexity worth it? F. Givovich et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134038
- How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions? E. Muñoz-Castro et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026
- Estimation of lake storage volumes in the Lagan River catchment in southern Sweden using a modified version of the Australian Water Resources Assessment–Landscape model (AWRA-L) A. Bjerkén et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107069
- The Attribution Identification of Runoff Changes in the Kriya River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis Provides a Basis for the Sustainable Management of Water Resources in the Basin S. Liu & K. Xing https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177882
- Increasing water stress in Chile revealed by novel datasets of water availability, land use and water use J. Boisier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5185-2025
Latest update: 25 Jun 2026
Short summary
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts,...
