Articles | Volume 26, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3863-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3863-2022
Research article
 | 
25 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 25 Jul 2022

Analysis of high streamflow extremes in climate change studies: how do we calibrate hydrological models?

Bruno Majone, Diego Avesani, Patrick Zulian, Aldo Fiori, and Alberto Bellin

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Cited articles

Aich, V., Liersch, S., Vetter, T., Fournet, S., Andersson, J. C. M., Calmanti, S., Van Weert, F. H. A., Hattermann, F. F., and Paton, E. N.: Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change, Sci. Total Environ., 562, 666–677, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.021, 2016. 
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Avesani, D., Galletti, A., Piccolroaz, S., Bellin, A., and Majone, B.: A dual layer MPI continuous large-scale hydrological model including Human Systems, Environ. Model. Softw., 139, 105003, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105003, 2021. 
Avesani, D., Zanfei, A., Di Marco, N., Galletti, A., Ravazzolo, F., Righetti, M., and Majone, B.: Short-term hydropower optimization driven by innovative time-adapting econometric model, Appl. Energy, 310, 118510, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118510, 2022. 
Bard, A., Renard, B., Lang, M., Giuntoli, I., Korck, J., Koboltschnig, G., Janža, M., D'Amico, M., and Volken, D.: Trends in the hydrologic regime of Alpine rivers, J. Hydrol., 529, 1823–1837, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.052, 2015. 
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Short summary
In this work, we introduce a methodology for devising reliable future high streamflow scenarios from climate change simulations. The calibration of a hydrological model is carried out to maximize the probability that the modeled and observed high flow extremes belong to the same statistical population. Application to the Adige River catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) showed that this procedure produces reliable quantiles of the annual maximum streamflow for use in assessment studies.
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