Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1761-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1761-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Apr 2021
Research article |
| 07 Apr 2021
| 07 Apr 2021
Space–time variability in soil moisture droughts in the Himalayan region
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),
Kathmandu, Nepal
Saurav Pradhananga
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),
Kathmandu, Nepal
Narayan Kumar Shrestha
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),
Kathmandu, Nepal
School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
Sven Kralisch
Department of Geoinformation Science, Friedrich Schiller University
Jena, Jena, Germany
Institute of Data Science, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Jena,
Germany
Jayandra P. Shrestha
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),
Kathmandu, Nepal
Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Manfred Fink
Department of Geoinformation Science, Friedrich Schiller University
Jena, Jena, Germany
Related authors
Judith Eeckman, Santosh Nepal, Pierre Chevallier, Gauthier Camensuli, Francois Delclaux, Aaron Boone, and Anneke De Rouw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-401, 2017
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares the simulation of water cycle obtained using two different hydrological models
in two small mountainous Himalayan catchments. The reliability of the simulations for evapotranspiration, discharge can therefore be considered as satisfactory. The differences in the structure and results of the two models mainly concern the water storages and flows in the soil, in particular in high-mountain environment.
Giovanny Mosquera, Daniela Rosero-López, José Daza, Daniel Escobar-Camacho, Annika Künne, Patricio Crespo, Sven Kralisch, Jordan Karubian, and Andrea Encalada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-71, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical forests supply the water needs of millions of people around the world. Hydrological intermittency, defined as the cessation of river and stream flow, reduces the ability of these forests to provide continuous flow throughout the year. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the factors that cause hydrological intermittency in tropical forests. The results reveal that geology is a key factor causing hydrological intermittency in the Ecuadorian forest of the Chocó-Darién ecoregion.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.
Uttam Ghimire, Taimoor Akhtar, Narayan Shrestha, and Prasad Daggupati
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-178, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The lack of availability of detailed historical weather data is a significant hindrance to development of robust hydrological models for the Asia Pacific (AP) Region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a popular model in the region that fills weather data gaps in data scarce scenarios. This paper presents the Asia Pacific Weather Statistics (APWS) dataset, that is designed for SWAT and provides a more accurate weather data gap filling mechanism than SWAT's default dataset.
Andrew Watson, Jodie Miller, Manfred Fink, Sven Kralisch, Melanie Fleischer, and Willem de Clercq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2679–2697, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2679-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
River systems that support high biodiversity profiles are conservation priorities worldwide. Understanding river ecosystem thresholds to low-flow conditions is important for conservation practices. In this study, the groundwater components for a hydrological model were distributed to provide daily baseflow and streamflow estimates needed for reserve determination. The modelling approach was applied to a RAMSAR lake system under threat by agricultural expansion and climatic fluctuations.
Tina Trautmann, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Annette Eicker, Manfred Fink, Christoph Niemann, and Martin Jung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4061–4082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4061-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4061-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we adjust a simple hydrological model to several observational datasets, including satellite observations of the land's total water storage. We apply the model to northern latitudes and find that the dominating factor of changes in the total water storage depends on both the spatial and temporal scale of analysis. While snow dominates seasonal variations, liquid water determines year-to-year variations, yet with increasing contribution of snow when averaging over larger regions.
A. B. M. Firoz, Alexandra Nauditt, Manfred Fink, and Lars Ribbe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-547-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-547-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
There are very few studies found globally where the impact of hydropower on drought issues has been addressed. Furthermore, recent development of hydropower and its impact on streamflow on the downstream is still not explored. This study tries to address the associated impact of hydropower on streamflow drought which may directly affect the irrigation, water, and energy production. The developed method helps the decision makers to identify the potential impact of hydropower on downstream users.
Judith Eeckman, Santosh Nepal, Pierre Chevallier, Gauthier Camensuli, Francois Delclaux, Aaron Boone, and Anneke De Rouw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-401, 2017
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares the simulation of water cycle obtained using two different hydrological models
in two small mountainous Himalayan catchments. The reliability of the simulations for evapotranspiration, discharge can therefore be considered as satisfactory. The differences in the structure and results of the two models mainly concern the water storages and flows in the soil, in particular in high-mountain environment.
S. Biskop, F. Maussion, P. Krause, and M. Fink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 209–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the hydrological model J2000g was extended and applied to four selected endorheic lake basins in the southern-central part of the TP aiming to provide a more quantitative understanding of the key factors controlling their water balance. The model results indicated that the relative contribution of glacier runoff to total water inflow (between 14 and 30 %) plays a less important role compared to runoff generation from rainfall and snowmelt in non-glacierized land areas.
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Simulating the Tone River eastward diversion project in Japan carried out 4 centuries ago
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: a large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify hydrological and climatic drivers
Achieving water budget closure through physical hydrological process modelling: insights from a large-sample study
Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?
State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
Improved representation of soil moisture processes through incorporation of cosmic-ray neutron count measurements in a large-scale hydrologic model
Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Technical note: An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
Estimating response times, flow velocities, and roughness coefficients of Canadian Prairie basins
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis
Extended range forecasting of stream water temperature with deep learning models
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Analyzing the generalization capabilities of hybrid hydrological models for extrapolation to extreme events
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric-hydrological model
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Scale-dependency in modeling nivo-glacial hydrological systems: the case of the Arolla basin, Switzerland
A diversity centric strategy for the selection of spatio-temporal training data for LSTM-based streamflow forecasting
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Exploring the Potential Processes Controls for Changes of Precipitation-Runoff Relationships in Non-stationary Environments
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 753–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms claims raised by historians that the eastward diversion project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted 4 centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the capital, Edo (Tokyo), using inland navigation. We showed that great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small interventions in the regime of natural flows.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 627–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Dataset Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Process Modelling to enhance water budget closure, termed PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modeling. However, most studies focus on daily-scale predictions, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use input of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what it truly reflects in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and time scales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for the next month at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 day ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 1 month ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Eduardo Acuna Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall-runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study conducted a detailed analysis of runoff component and future trend in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin owing to the existed differences in the published results, and find that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow were limited, both for ~5 % which were much lower than previous results. The streamflow there will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution from glacier melt would lead to an underestimation on such increasing trend.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart Lane, and Francesco Comiti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until an overparametrization limit is reached.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-169, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine-learning models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained to large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets, that maximise the spatiotemproal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation-Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controls for changes in precipitation-runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation-runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Cited articles
Alemohammad, S. H., Kolassa, J., Prigent, C., Aires, F., and Gentine, P.: Global downscaling of remotely sensed soil moisture using neural networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5341–5356, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5341-2018, 2018.
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration:
Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO, Rome, 1998.
Bayissa, Y., Maskey, S., Tadesse, T., van Andel, S. J., Moges, S., van Griensven, A., and Solomatine, D.: Comparison of the performance of six
drought indices in characterizing historical drought for the upper Blue Nile
Basin, Ethiopia, Geosciences (Switzerland), 8, 1–26, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8030081, 2018.
Bhandari, G. and Panthi, B. B.: Analysis of Agricultural Drought and its
Effects on Productivity at Different District of Nepal, J. Inst. Sci. Technol., 19, 106–110, https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v19i1.13835, 2014.
Dahal, P., Shrestha, N. S., Shrestha, M. L., Krakauer, N. Y., Panthi, J.,
Pradhanang, S. M., Jha, A., and Lakhankar, T.: Drought risk assessment in
central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis, Nat. Hazards, 80, 1913–1932, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2055-5, 2016.
Dai, A.: Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought
Severity Index during 1900–2008, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D12115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015541, 2011.
Dai, A.: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models,
Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 52–58, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1633, 2013.
Dorigo, W., Wagner, W., Albergel, C., Albrecht, F., Balsamo, G., Brocca, L.,
Chung, D., Ertl, M., Forkel, M., Gruber, A., Haas, E., Hamer, P. D., Hirschi, M., Ikonen, J., de Jeu, R., Kidd, R., Lahoz, W., Liu, Y. Y., Miralles, D., Mistelbauer, T., Nicolai-Shaw, N., Parinussa, R., Pratola, C., Reimer, C., van der Schalie, R., Seneviratne, S. I., Smolander, T., and Lecomte, P.: ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions, Remote Sens. Environ., 203, 185–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001, 2017.
Eeckman, J., Nepal, S., Chevallier, P., Camensuli, G., Delclaux, F., Boone,
A., and de Rouw, A.: Comparing the ISBA and J2000 approaches for surface flows modelling at the local scale in the Everest region, J. Hydrol., 569, 705–719, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.022, 2019.
Firoz, A. B. M., Nauditt, A., Fink, M., and Ribbe, L.: Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-547-2018, 2018.
Flügel, W.-A.: Delineating hydrological response units by geographical
information system analyses for regional hydrological modelling using PRMS/MMS in the drainage basin of the River Bröl, Germany, Hydrol. Process., 9, 423–436, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360090313, 1995.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of
the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Hamal, K., Sharma, S., Khadka, N., Haile, G. G., Joshi, B. B., Xu, T., and
Dawadi, B.: Assessment of drought impacts on crop yields across Nepal during 1987–2017, Meteorol. Appl., 27, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1950, 2020.
Hijioka, Y., Lin, E., Pereira, J. J., Corlett, R. T., Cui, X., Insarov, G. E., Lasco, R. D., E. Lindgren, A., and Surjan, A.: Asia, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part B: Regional Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Bilir, T. E.,
Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., and Mastrandrea, P. R., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1327–1370, 2014.
Huang, S., Huang, Q., Chang, J., Leng, G., and Xing, L.: The response of
agricultural drought to meteorological drought and the influencing factors: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China, Agr. Water Manage., 159, 45–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.05.023, 2015.
IPCC: Summary for policymakers, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contributions of the Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2014.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special
report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable
land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial
ecosystems, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Calvo Buendia, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Zhai, P., Slade, R., Connors, S., van Diemen, R., Ferrat, M., Haughey, E., Luz, S., Neogi, S., Pathak, M., Petzold, J., Portugal Pereira, J., Vyas, P., Huntley, E., Kissick, K., Belkacemi, M., and Malley, J., available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2020/02/SPM_Updated-Jan20.pdf, last access: 26 March 2021, in press, 2019.
Joshi, N. and Dongol, R.: Severity of climate induced drought and its impact
on migration: a study of Ramechhap District, Nepal, Trop. Agricult. Res., 29, 194–211, https://doi.org/10.4038/tar.v29i2.8289, 2018.
Kaini, S., Nepal, S., Pradhananga, S., Gardner, T., and Sharma, A. K.:
Representative general circulation models selection and downscaling of climate data for the transboundary Koshi river basin in China and Nepal, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 4131–4149, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6447, 2020.
Karki, R., Hasson, S., Schickhoff, U., Scholten, T., and Böhner, J.: Rising Precipitation Extremes across Nepal, Climate, 5, cli5010004, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010004, 2017.
Kralisch, S.: JAMS – Downloads, available at: http://jams.uni-jena.de/downloads/, last access: 26 March 2021.
Kralisch, S. and Fischer, C.: Model representation, parameter calibration and parallel computing – The jams approach, in: iEMSs 2012 – Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Proceedings of the 6th Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, 1–5 July 2012, Leipzig, 2012.
Kralisch, S. and Krause, P.: JAMS A Framework for Natural Resource Model Development and Application, edited by: Voinov, A., Jakeman, A., and Rizzoli, A. E., in: Proceedings of the iEMSs Third Biannual Meeting “Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software”, Burlington, USA, 2006.
Krause, P.: Das hydrologische Modellsystem J2000: Beschreibung und Anwendung
in großen Flußeinzugsgebieten, Schriften des Forschungszentrum
Jülich, Reihe Umwelt/Environment, Band 29, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, 2001.
Krause, P.: Quantifying the Impact of Land Use Changes on the Water Balance of Large Catchments using the J2000 Model, Phys. Chem. Earth, 27, 663–673, 2002.
Krause, P., Bende-Michl, U., Fink, M., Helmschrot, J., Kralisch, S., and Kuenne, A.: Parameter sensitivity analysis of the JAMS/J2000-S model to
improve water and nutrient transport process simulation – a case study for
the Duck catchment in Tasmania, in: 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, 13–17 July 2009, Cairns, Australia, 1727–1732, 2009.
Liu, Y. Y., Parinussa, R. M., Dorigo, W. A., De Jeu, R. A. M., Wagner, W., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., McCabe, M. F., and Evans, J. P.: Developing an improved soil moisture dataset by blending passive and active microwave satellite-based retrievals, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 425–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-425-2011, 2011.
Liu, Y. Y., Dorigo, W. A., Parinussa, R. M., de Jeu, R. A. M., Wagner, W.,
McCabe, M. F., Evans, J. P., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Trend-preserving
blending of passive and active microwave soil moisture retrievals, Remote
Sens. Environ., 123, 280–297, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.03.014, 2012.
Mallya, G., Mishra, V., Niyogi, D., Tripathi, S., and Govindaraju, R. S.:
Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region, Weather
Clim. Extrem., 12, 43–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002, 2015.
McKee, T. B., Nolan, J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, Preprints, in: Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Amer. Meteor, Soc., California, 1993.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: Drought monitoring with multiple time scales, in: Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Applied Climatology, 15–20 January 1995, Dallas, 1995.
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012, 2010.
Monteleone, B., Bonaccorso, B., and Martina, M.: A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-471-2020, 2020.
Narasimhan, B. and Srinivasan, R.: Development and evaluation of Soil
Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) for agricultural drought monitoring, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 133, 69–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.012, 2005.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models, Part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.
Nauditt, A., Firoz, A. B. M., Trinh, V. Q., Fink, M., Stolpe, H., and Ribbe,
L.: Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment in an Anthropogenically Impacted
Tropical Catchment, Central Vietnam, in: Water Resources Development and
Management, Springer, Singapore, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-2624-9_14, 2017.
Nepal, S.: Evaluating Upstream-Downstream Linkages of Hydrological Dynamics
in the Himalayan Region, PhD Thesis, Friedrich Schiller University of Jena,
Jena, 2012.
Nepal, S., Krause, P., Flügel, W.-A., Fink, M., and Fischer, C.: Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model, Hydrol. Process., 28, 1329–1344, 2014.
Nepal, S., Flügel, W. A., Krause, P., Fink, M., and Fischer, C.: Assessment of spatial transferability of process-based hydrological model
parameters in two neighbouring catchments in the Himalayan Region, Hydrol. Process., 31, 2812–2826, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11199, 2017.
Prabhakar, S. V. R. K. and Shaw, R.: Climate change adaptation implications
for drought risk mitigation: A perspective for India, Climatic Change, 88, 113–130, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9330-8, 2008.
Rajbhandari, R., Shrestha, A. B., Nepal, S., and Wahid, S.: Projection of Future Precipitation and Temperature Change over the Transboundary Koshi
River Basin Using Regional Climate Model PRECIS, Atmos. Clim. Sci., 08, 83763, https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2018.82012, 2018.
Regmi, H. R.: Effect of unusual weather on cereal crop production and
household food security, J. Agricult. Environ., 8, 20–29, https://doi.org/10.3126/aej.v8i0.723, 2007.
Riebsame, W. E.: Drought and natural resources management in the United
States: impacts and implications of the 1987–89 drought, Routledge, available at:
https://www.routledge.com/Drought-And-Natural-Resources-Management-In-The-United
(last access: 2 March 2021), 1991.
Sheffield, J.: A simulated soil moisture based drought analysis for the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D24108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005182, 2004.
Shrestha, A. B., Wake, C. P., Dibb, J. E., and Mayewski, P. A.: Precipitation
fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with
some large scale climatological parameters, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 317–327,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(20000315)20:3<317::AID-JOC476>3.0.CO;2-G, 2000.
Shrestha, N. K., Qamer, F. M., Pedreros, D., Murthy, M. S. R., Wahid, S. M.,
and Shrestha, M.: Evaluating the accuracy of Climate Hazard Group (CHG)
satellite rainfall estimates for precipitation based drought monitoring in
Koshi basin, Nepal, J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud., 13, 138–151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.08.004, 2017.
Shrestha, S. and Nepal, S.: Water balance assessment under different glacier
coverage scenarios in the Hunza basin, Water (Switzerland), 11, w11061124, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061124, 2019.
Stefan, S., Ghioca, M., Rimbu, N., and Boroneant, C.: Study of meteorological
and hydrological drought in southern Romania from observational data, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 871–881, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1039, 2004.
Su, B., Huang, J., Fischer, T., Wang, Y., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Zhai, J., Sun, H., Wang, A., Zeng, X., Wang, G., Tao, H., Gemmer, M., Li, X., and Jiang, T.:
Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 ∘C and 2.0 ∘C warming, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 10600–10605, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802129115, 2018.
Van-Loon, A. F.: Hydrological drought explained, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Water, 2, 359–392, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085, 2015.
Wang, A., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Sheffield, J.: Soil moisture drought in
China, 1950–2006, J. Climate, 24, 3257–3271, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3733.1, 2011.
Wang, D., Hejazi, M., Cai, X., and Valocchi, A. J.: Climate change impact on
meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought in central Illinois,
Water Resour. Res., 47, 9527, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009845, 2011.
Wu, H., Xiong, D., Liu, B., Zhang, S., Yuan, Y., Fang, Y., Chidi, C. L., and
Dahal, N. M.: Spatio-temporal analysis of drought variability using CWSI in
the Koshi river basin (KRB), Int. J. Environ. Res. Publ. Health, 16, ijerph16173100, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173100, 2019.
Short summary
This paper examines soil moisture drought in the central Himalayan region by applying a process-based hydrological model. Our results suggest that both the occurrence and severity of droughts have increased over the last 3 decades, especially in the winter and
pre-monsoon seasons. The insights provided into the frequency, spatial coverage, and severity of the drought conditions can provide valuable inputs towards improved management of water resources and greater agricultural productivity.
This paper examines soil moisture drought in the central Himalayan region by applying a...
