Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Aug 2019
Research article |
| 08 Aug 2019
| 08 Aug 2019
Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought
Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI), Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK
Ian Holman
Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI), Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK
John Bloomfield
British Geological Survey, Wallingford, OX10 8ED, UK
Mark Cuthbert
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Park Place,
Cardiff, CF10 3AT, UK
Ron Corstanje
Centre for Environment and Agricultural Informatics, Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK
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We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK. Specifically, multi-year cycles in the NAO are shown to influence the frequency of droughts and this influence changes considerably over time. We show that the influence of these varying controls is similar to the projected effects of climate change on water resources. We also show that these time-varying behaviours have important implications for water resource forecasts used for drought planning.
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In this paper, we find evidence for the cyclical behaviour (on a 7-year basis) in UK streamflow records that match the main cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, we find that the strength of these 7-year cycles in streamflow is dependent on proportional contributions from groundwater and the response times of the underlying groundwater systems. This may allow for improvements to water management practices through better understanding of long-term streamflow behaviour.
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Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
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Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Abrar Habib, Athanasios Paschalis, Adrian P. Butler, Christian Onof, John P. Bloomfield, and James P. R. Sorensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-27, 2023
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 761–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-761-2023, 2023
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Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
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John P. Bloomfield, Mengyi Gong, Benjamin P. Marchant, Gemma Coxon, and Nans Addor
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Maria Magdalena Warter, Michael Bliss Singer, Mark O. Cuthbert, Dar Roberts, Kelly K. Caylor, Romy Sabathier, and John Stella
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William Rust, Mark Cuthbert, John Bloomfield, Ron Corstanje, Nicholas Howden, and Ian Holman
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Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
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Gabriel C. Rau, Mark O. Cuthbert, R. Ian Acworth, and Philipp Blum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6033–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6033-2020, 2020
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Doris E. Wendt, Anne F. Van Loon, John P. Bloomfield, and David M. Hannah
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4853–4868, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4853-2020, 2020
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Groundwater use changes the availability of groundwater, especially during droughts. This study investigates the impact of groundwater use on groundwater droughts. A methodological framework is presented that was developed and applied to the UK. We identified an asymmetric impact of groundwater use on droughts, which highlights the relation between short-term and long-term strategies for sustainable groundwater use.
Gemma Coxon, Nans Addor, John P. Bloomfield, Jim Freer, Matt Fry, Jamie Hannaford, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Rosanna Lane, Melinda Lewis, Emma L. Robinson, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
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We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain. The dataset collates river flows, catchment attributes, and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments across Great Britain. We characterise the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, human influence, and discharge uncertainty of each catchment. The dataset is publicly available for the community to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.
Bentje Brauns, Daniela Cuba, John P. Bloomfield, David M. Hannah, Christopher Jackson, Ben P. Marchant, Benedikt Heudorfer, Anne F. Van Loon, Hélène Bessière, Bo Thunholm, and Gerhard Schubert
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In Europe, ca. 65% of drinking water is groundwater. Its replenishment depends on rainfall, but droughts may cause groundwater levels to fall below normal. These
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Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
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Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
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Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim E. Freer, Thorsten Wagener, Penny J. Johnes, John P. Bloomfield, Sheila Greene, Christopher J. A. Macleod, and Sim M. Reaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4011–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, 2019
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We evaluated four hydrological model structures and their parameters on over 1100 catchments across Great Britain, considering modelling uncertainties. Models performed well for most catchments but failed in parts of Scotland and south-eastern England. Failures were often linked to inconsistencies in the water balance. This research shows what conceptual lumped models can achieve, gives insights into where and why these models may fail, and provides a benchmark of national modelling capability.
John Beale, Boris Snapir, Toby Waine, Jonathan Evans, and Ronald Corstanje
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-294, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Knowledge of soil moisture is important managing their agricultural crops controlling irrigation, predicting flows in rivers and streams, weather forecasting and climate modelling. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) from satellites can provide wide area coverage on a regular basis. This paper investigates the magnitude of the uncertainties that are influenced by soil properties to evaluate the role of existing soil databases in soil moisture retrieval and interpretation.
Seshagiri Rao Kolusu, Mohammad Shamsudduha, Martin C. Todd, Richard G. Taylor, David Seddon, Japhet J. Kashaigili, Girma Y. Ebrahim, Mark O. Cuthbert, James P. R. Sorensen, Karen G. Villholth, Alan M. MacDonald, and Dave A. MacLeod
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1751–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019, 2019
John P. Bloomfield, Benjamin P. Marchant, and Andrew A. McKenzie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1393–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1393-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1393-2019, 2019
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Groundwater is susceptible to drought due to natural variations in climate; however, to date there is no evidence of a relationship between climate change and groundwater drought. Using two long groundwater level records from the UK, we document increases in frequency, magnitude and intensity and changes in duration of groundwater drought associated with climate warming and infer that, given the extent of shallow groundwater globally, warming may widely effect changes to groundwater droughts.
Ron Corstanje, Theresa G. Mercer, Jane R. Rickson, Lynda K. Deeks, Paul Newell-Price, Ian Holman, Cedric Kechavarsi, and Toby W. Waine
Solid Earth, 8, 1003–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-1003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-1003-2017, 2017
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This research assessed whether physical soil properties can be used to indicate the quality of British soils in terms of their delivery of ecosystem goods and services. A prioritised list of physical
soil quality indicators(SQIs) were tested for robustness, spatial and temporal variability, and expected rate of change. Seven SQIs were selected: soil packing density, water retention characteristics, aggregate stability, rate of soil erosion, soil depth, soil structure and soil sealing.
J. P. Bloomfield, B. P. Marchant, S. H. Bricker, and R. B. Morgan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4327–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, 2015
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To improve the design of drought monitoring networks and water resource management during episodes of drought, there is a need for a better understanding of spatial variations in the response of aquifers to major meteorological droughts. This paper is the first to describe a suite of methods to quantify such variations. Using an analysis of groundwater level data for a case study from the UK, the influence of catchment characteristics on the varied response of groundwater to droughts is explored
A. Chiverton, J. Hannaford, I. P. Holman, R. Corstanje, C. Prudhomme, T. M. Hess, and J. P. Bloomfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2395–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, 2015
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Current hydrological change detection methods are subject to a host of limitations. This paper develops a new method, temporally shifting variograms (TSVs), which characterises variability in the river flow regime using several parameters, changes in which can then be attributed to precipitation characteristics. We demonstrate the use of the method through application to 94 UK catchments, showing that periods of extremes as well as more subtle changes can be detected.
C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2353–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, 2015
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The English Lowlands is a heavily populated, water-stressed region, which is vulnerable to long droughts typically associated with dry winters. We conduct a long-term (1910-present) quantitative analysis of precipitation, flow and groundwater droughts for the region, and then review potential climatic drivers. No single driver is dominant, but we demonstrate a physical link between La Nina conditions, winter rainfall and long droughts in the region.
J. P. Bloomfield and B. P. Marchant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4769–4787, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013, 2013
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2767–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2767-2024, 2024
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While groundwater recharge is important for water resources management, nearshore sea levels can obscure this signal. Regression deconvolution has previously been used to remove other influences from groundwater levels (e.g., barometric pressure, Earth tides) by accounting for time-delayed responses from these influences. We demonstrate that it can also remove sea-level influences from measured groundwater levels.
Romane Berthelin, Tunde Olarinoye, Michael Rinderer, Matías Mudarra, Dominic Demand, Mirjam Scheller, and Andreas Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 385–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-385-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-385-2023, 2023
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Karstic recharge processes have mainly been explored using discharge analysis despite the high influence of the heterogeneous surface on hydrological processes. In this paper, we introduce an event-based method which allows for recharge estimation from soil moisture measurements. The method was tested at a karst catchment in Germany but can be applied to other karst areas with precipitation and soil moisture data available. It will allow for a better characterization of karst recharge processes.
Jason J. KarisAllen, Aaron A. Mohammed, Joseph J. Tamborski, Rob C. Jamieson, Serban Danielescu, and Barret L. Kurylyk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4721–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4721-2022, 2022
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We used a combination of aerial, thermal, hydrologic, and radionuclide monitoring to investigate intertidal springs flowing into a coastal lagoon with a threatened ecosystem. Field data highlight the critical hydrologic and thermal role of these springs in the nearshore zone, and modelling results reveal that the groundwater springs will likely warm substantially in the coming decades due to climate change. Springs sourced from shallower zones in the aquifer will warm first.
Sarah A. Bourke, Mike Iwanyshyn, Jacqueline Kohn, and M. Jim Hendry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1355-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1355-2019, 2019
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Agricultural operations can result in nitrate contamination of groundwater, lakes and streams. At two confined feeding operations in Alberta, Canada, nitrate in groundwater from temporary manure piles and pens exceeded nitrate from earthen manure storages. Identified denitrification reduced agriculturally derived nitrate concentrations in groundwater by at least half. Infiltration to groundwater systems where nitrate can be naturally attenuated is likely preferable to off-farm export via runoff.
Guillaume Pirot, Tipaluck Krityakierne, David Ginsbourger, and Philippe Renard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 351–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-351-2019, 2019
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To localize the source of a contaminant in the subsurface, based on concentration observations at some wells, we propose to test different possible locations and minimize the misfit between observed and simulated concentrations. We use a global optimization technique that relies on an expected improvement criterion, which allows a good exploration of the parameter space, avoids the trapping of local minima and quickly localizes the source of the contaminant on the presented synthetic cases.
Chia-Hao Chang, Ching-Sheng Huang, and Hund-Der Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3951–3963, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3951-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3951-2018, 2018
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Existing analytical solutions associated with groundwater recharge are only applicable to the studies of saturated flow in aquifers. This paper develops an analytical solution for 3-D unsaturated–saturated flow due to localized recharge into an unconfined aquifer. The effects of unsaturated flow on the recharge process are analyzed. The present solution agrees well with a finite-difference solution. The solution’s predictions also match well with observed data obtained by a field experiment.
Chao-Chih Lin, Ya-Chi Chang, and Hund-Der Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2359-2018, 2018
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An semanalytical model is developed for estimating the groundwater flow and stream depletion rates (SDR) from two streams in an L-shaped fluvial aquifer located at Gyeonggi-do, Korea. The predicted spatial and temporal hydraulic heads agree well with those of simulations and measurements. The model can be applied to evaluate the contribution of extracted water from storage and nearby streams.
Xiuyu Liang, Hongbin Zhan, You-Kuan Zhang, and Jin Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1251–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1251-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1251-2017, 2017
Chia-Hao Chang, Ching-Sheng Huang, and Hund-Der Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1225–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1225-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1225-2016, 2016
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Most previous solutions for groundwater flow due to localized recharge assumed either aquifer incompressibility or 2-D flow without vertical flow. This paper develops a 3-D flow model for hydraulic head change induced by the recharge with random transient rates in a compressible unconfined aquifer. The analytical solution of the model for the head is derived. The quantitative criteria for the validity of those two assumptions are presented by the developed solution.
A. J. Luhmann, M. D. Covington, J. M. Myre, M. Perne, S. W. Jones, E. C. Alexander Jr., and M. O. Saar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 137–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-137-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-137-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Water temperature is a non-conservative tracer. Variations in recharge temperature are damped and retarded as water moves through an aquifer due to heat exchange between water and rock. This paper presents relationships that describe thermal damping and retardation in karst conduits determined using analytical solutions and numerical simulations, with some support provided by field data. These relationships may be used with field data to estimate unknown flow path geometry in karst aquifers.
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Short summary
We show that major groundwater resources in the UK exhibit strong multi-year cycles, accounting for up to 40 % of total groundwater level variability. By comparing these cycles with recorded widespread groundwater droughts over the past 60 years, we provide evidence that climatic systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation) ultimately drive drought-risk periods in UK groundwater. The recursive nature of these drought-risk periods may lead to improved preparedness for future droughts.
We show that major groundwater resources in the UK exhibit strong multi-year cycles, accounting...
