The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

Foster, Kean; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Olsson, Jonas

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018

Articles | Volume 22, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 5

Research article

|

18 May 2018

Research article |

| 18 May 2018

The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

Kean Foster, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, and Jonas Olsson

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Final revised paper (published on 18 May 2018)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 23 Oct 2017)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review hess-2017-588', Joost Beckers, 03 Nov 2017
- AC1: 'Response to reviewer 1', Kean Foster, 14 Nov 2017
RC2: 'Minor revisions', Fernando Mainardi Fan, 08 Nov 2017
- AC2: 'Response to reviewer 2', Kean Foster, 14 Nov 2017
SC1: 'Review from UZH Earth System Science students', Ilja van Meerveld, 30 Nov 2017
- AC3: 'Response to reviewer’s comments in SC1', Kean Foster, 02 Feb 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Jan 2018) by Albrecht Weerts

AR by Kean Foster on behalf of the Authors (02 Feb 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (27 Feb 2018) by Albrecht Weerts

AR by Kean Foster on behalf of the Authors (24 Apr 2018)

Short summary

Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. Careful reservoir management is required for optimal production throughout the year and accurate seasonal forecasts are essential for this. In this work we develop a seasonal forecast prototype and evaluate its ability to predict spring flood volumes, a critical variable, in northern Sweden. We show that the prototype is better than the operational system on average 65 % of the time and reduces the volume error by ~ 6 %.