Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
Research article
18 May 2018
Research article |  | 18 May 2018

The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

Kean Foster, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, and Jonas Olsson


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Jan 2018) by Albrecht Weerts
AR by Kean Foster on behalf of the Authors (02 Feb 2018)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (27 Feb 2018) by Albrecht Weerts
Short summary
Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. Careful reservoir management is required for optimal production throughout the year and accurate seasonal forecasts are essential for this. In this work we develop a seasonal forecast prototype and evaluate its ability to predict spring flood volumes, a critical variable, in northern Sweden. We show that the prototype is better than the operational system on average 65 % of the time and reduces the volume error by ~ 6 %.